AA Rankings for 2/11/24
Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:05 am
We’re heading into the final week of the regular season. The top four are obvious enough, but we are finally seeing some stability in the 5-7 range now. The chaos now comes in the 11-15 range. We’ll preview it all next week, but here’s where I see things with a handful of games left:
1. Minnetonka (21-0-2)
-The Skippers keep on doing their thing: just as they followed the Wayzata tie with a win in the second meeting, they managed the same feat against Edina. Amid all the wins it can be easy to shrug off just how incredibly good they’ve been, remaining undefeated against the toughest schedule an undefeated team has ever had to play. If they can take care of Eden Prairie, they should be home clear for the first perfect regular season since Lakeville South in 2021 and the first against a non-Covid-affected, full schedule since Benilde in 2016.
This week: Thurs at #9 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. St. Michael-Albertville
2. Edina (19-3-1)
-The Hornets lost to Minnetonka, remaining one half-step behind their Lake Conference rivals in the rankings. I’m keeping them at two because they have the win over Wayzata, though this Saturday’s meeting will settle any debate there, at least for another week and a half or so.
This week: Thurs at St. Michael-Albertville, Sat vs. #3 Wayzata
3. Wayzata (19-2-2)
-The Trojans shut down Eden Prairie to atone for an earlier tie against the Eagles and hold steady ahead of the Edina rematch. After rolling along as the second-ranked team in the state for much of the season, can they get back there and dodge the semifinal Benilde bullet with a win at Braemar?
This week: Wed at Holy Angels, Sat at #2 Edina
4. Chanhassen (19-4)
-The Storm ran its win streak to 12 and continues to hold steady, the clear top four team who nonetheless remains a mild mystery given its non-Lake schedule down the stretch; an overtime game with Orono raises an eyebrow, but it also isn't enough to upend my view of them. We know they’re good, but just how good? A second clear win over Benilde would keep up the pressure on the higher-ranked teams here.
This week: Thurs vs. #5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat vs. New Prague
5. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (19-4-1)
-The Red Knights continue to lurk in the 5-spot and look pretty good in the process, finishing off both Hermantown and Grand Rapids over the weekend. They get a second crack at Chanhassen now to put an exclamation point on their recent run; a win would crash the top four party and make the 6AA race awfully interesting.
This week: Thurs at #4 Chanhassen
6. Maple Grove (18-5)
-The Crimson had a very strong week, rattling off wins over Centennial, St. Thomas and Lakeville South; even though Shakopee is also on a roll, the long list of quality wins the Crimson have amassed led me to flip the two of them. They’ll look to keep rolling against this very tough season-ending slate.
This week: Wed at #13 Hill-Murray, Fri at #10 Andover
7. Shakopee (19-3-1)
-The wins just keep coming for the Sabers, who beat Prior Lake and bounced back after losing a big early lead against Rosemount. A 20-win regular season is now within reach, and Eastview provides a final pre-sections test before they see what fate awaits them in 2AA.
This week: Tues vs. Farmington, Sat at #11 Eastview
8. Rogers (16-6-2)
-The Royals have had more downs than the XX above them this season, but with the team coming back together after some absences they are starting to play more like the serious contender they have the talent to be, beating White Bear this past week and now riding a 5-game winning streak. They wrap things up against unpredictable Coon Rapids.
This week: Sat at Coon Rapids
9. Eden Prairie (15-7-1)
-The Eagles flew past St. Michael-Albertville but couldn’t muster much offense against Wayzata. I’ve been a little more down on this team than some because they haven’t seriously competed with the three Lake powers down the stretch, but then few have, and their record is comparable to other teams in this neighborhood despite having to play that brutal conference schedule. Along with some attrition in last week’s 8-10, that gets them back into the top ten despite the unremarkable week. We’ll see if they can do anything more with Minnetonka this time around, and Buffalo is a sneaky trap game on Saturday, too.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Buffalo
10. Andover (16-7-1)
-The Huskies got back to business after a two-loss previous week, edging past Centennial to slip back up into the top ten. They close with a de facto conference title game against Maple Grove.
This week: Fri vs. #6 Maple Grove
11. Eastview (15-7-1)
-Is this team now the real favorite to win 3AA? They’ve beaten Rosemount twice and St. Thomas once, and with both of those teams losing a little of their earlier luster, they are now the top highest-ranked team in the section. They’ve got a chance to really grab some attention if they can continue this run through their game with Shakopee this week.
This week: Tues at Apple Valley/Burnsville, Sat vs. #7 Shakopee
12. Rosemount (16-7)
-The Irish are the first of three top ten teams a week ago that that had winless weeks; as they lost by one goal against section rival Eastview and a top ten Shakopee team, they are at the top of this heap. Neither loss is gravely concerning, but they aren’t quite trending the right way. Lakeville South gives them one last top 25 opponent this week.
This week: Tus vs. Lakeville South, Thurs vs. Eagan
13. Hill-Murray (13-8-2)
-The Pioneers beat St. Thomas for a second time to clamber back into the top 15. Their week will be one of the most telling heading into sections: is this team rounding back into playoff form as they so often do, or are they still stuck on more even footing with their 4AA rivals?
This week: Wed vs. #6 Maple Grove, Sat at Moorhead
14. St. Thomas Academy (14-8-2)
-The Cadets had a two-loss week and are fading some here after a peak in late December, with the second Hill loss being the more consequential one. They close with a conference game and one final tune-up of the defensive machine before heading into a tight race for 3AA.
This week: Thurs at Two Rivers
15. Centennial (14-7-2)
-So much for anointing the Cougars a top ten team a week ago: they followed it up with an 0-3 run. Two of the losses were to conference frontrunners, but the Elk River loss was a red flag, albeit one that I don’t think alters too much else. They should get back in the win column to wrap up their regular season.
This week: Tues vs. Blaine, Fri at Blake
The Next Ten
Grand Rapids (14-10)
-The Thunderhawks’ heater came to an end against Benilde on Saturday, a rare game in which their usually reliable back end buckled under heavy pressure. We’ll see if that was just one aberration as they close with an uncharacteristically scuffling Hermantown team.
Stillwater (13-8-1)
-A one-goal win over Cretin does little to change things for the Ponies. Their three-game final week includes two teams in the lower half of the Suburban East and Holy Family.
Lakeville South (15-8)
-Like Stillwater, the Cougars are holding firm in this neighborhood, with a two-goal loss to Maple Grove changing little. They get one last shot at a win to shake things up when they visit Rosemount, and Prior Lake isn’t an easy finale, either.
Roseau (17-6-1)
-The Rams had a strong start to their week with a win over Thief River Falls and a thrashing of Duluth East, but they closed with a clunker against Cloquet. This is a bit concerning because there are a lot of Cloquet-ish teams in 8AA, and even if they are the top seed in the section, the quarterfinals aren’t the total free pass they are in other sections. They close with a tough one against East Grand Forks, whom they tied a month ago.
Moorhead (11-11-1)
-The Spuds beat Warroad in overtime to climb their way to .500 for the first time all season. This run has had its bumps, but they do seem to be improving as time goes along; after a final section game against Brainerd, they have their customary regular season-ender against Hill, which is a chance at a statement heading into the playoffs.
Elk River (14-9-1)
-A second straight week with a big upset has the Elks climbing on up the top 25, as Centennial was their victim this past week. They also needed overtime to beat Bemidji, so like Roseau, they’ll have work to do simply to be in position for a big playoff win, but they are showing a higher ceiling than anyone else in 8AA right now. They wrap against St. Cloud on Tuesday.
Gentry Academy (18-5)
-The Stars got one of their better wins of the season against a fast-falling Holy Family team and have entrenched themselves in this part of the rankings. They wrap up against Armstrong/Cooper and then Sartell, which is one of the teams hovering just outside the top 25.
Champlin Park (14-9-1)
-A quality win over Holy Family gets the Rebels back into the top 25; they’ve rattled off five in a row in what has been a very streaky season. They’ll look to make it six against Mounds View before they try to disrupt 5AA.
White Bear Lake (14-7-1)
-The Bears have lost four of their past five, albeit with different flavors: they gave Rogers a good run, but came up flat against Park, which hurts their standing here. They conclude with the Woodburies and Cretin.
Cretin-Derham Hall (13-8-1)
-The Raiders continue to putter along here following a loss to Stillwater. A busy final week includes Mahtomedi, a game with Park that might decide who gets a home game between the two of them the following week, and White Bear Lake.
1AA
18 Lakeville South
New Prague
Rochester Century/John Marshall
Owatonna
-There isn’t too much controversy here. A win over Owatonna after an earlier tie should lock up a 3-seed for the Rochester co-op; New Prague is not the world’s most confidence-inspiring 2-seed, but the Trojans have the win over Century/John Marshall. I would be surprised to see 6-win Lakeville North go higher than the 5-seed, so it’ll be interesting to see if their tougher schedule still gives them enough for a run to the semis; we shouldn’t forget they gave South a one-goal game in their second meeting.
2AA
1 Minnetonka
4 Chanhassen
7 Shakopee
9 Eden Prairie
-This one is probably set unless Eden Prairie does something against Minnetonka this coming week. The Shakopee-Eden Prairie ordering is the most debatable part here, but with likely 6-seed Prior Lake looking scrappy and probable 5-seed Holy Family backsliding badly, I’m not sure the 3-seed is particularly nice reward unless a team is trying to avoid Tonka until the final.
3AA
11 Eastview
14 St. Thomas Academy
12 Rosemount
Park of Cottage Grove
25 Cretin-Derham Hall
- The news here is Eastview finishing off Rosemount for a second time to claim the top seed in this section. They have earned the easier road through the section, while STA and Rosemount will likely collide in the semis. The Park-Cretin quarterfinal should be a solid one, too, with those teams’ second meeting this coming week likely deciding who gets home ice.
4AA
13 Hill-Murray
24 White Bear Lake
17 Stillwater
22 Gentry Academy
-Record against each other sets the top three fairly well here, with Hill now sitting at 1-0-1, White Bear at 1-1-1, and Stillwater at 1-2. Stillwater has a mild case for jumping higher with White Bear’s losses mounting down the stretch, but this still feels like the right order at the moment. Gentry remains the eternal wild card, but it is hard to justify anything higher than a 4-seed to a team that just hasn’t played the schedule to make a clear top 3 claim, even in a muddled section with no obvious standout.
5AA
6 Maple Grove
15 Centennial
8 Rogers
23 Champlin Park
-The Crimson’s win over Centennial should let us lock in this one. Rogers has the talent to win it all but hasn’t always played that way, so the Royals get a first round date with Coon Rapids for their trouble; their loss to Totino breaks the A-beats-B-beats-C cycle that would otherwise plague the top three, and Maple Grove’s overall body of work is strong enough to rise to the top. Champlin is dynamic enough that it could trouble Maple Grove in a semifinal date.
6AA
2 Edina
3 Wayzata
5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
Holy Angels
-The top seed here will come down to the final day of the regular season. A sweep would give Edina the clear top spot, while a Wayzata win would, I think, give them the slightly better body of work they’d need to break the season split. With Benilde lurking as a dangerous 3-seed, the top seed has serious value. The Red Knights’ comfortable win over Holy Angels locked in the 3- and 4-seeds this past week.
7AA
16 Grand Rapids
10 Andover
Duluth East
Rock Ridge
-Grand Rapids threw a twist in this one with the win in Andover and should be the top seed now. It gets thin very quickly, with an eight-win Duluth East team as the 3-seed with two wins over Rock Ridge and Rock Ridge owning wins over the other two Duluth schools who join Forest Lake in the middle tier of this section.
8AA
19 Roseau
20 Moorhead
Sartell
21 Elk River
-What do we do with the 8AA soup? Roseau has the best body of work and a split with Moorhead, though they do have some other section losses that they could get whacked for, and that Cloquet loss leaves a sour note that could cost them, too. The Spuds’ only section loss is that second Roseau game. Sartell tied Moorhead and has played the top two tough, so is probably next in line. Elk River has various section losses and isn’t consistent but is playing the most dangerous hockey at the moment; is that enough to get them some extra votes? Buffalo could be a nasty draw as the likely 5-seed, though. In short, I think this order makes sense, but seeing something totally different wouldn’t shock me, nor would I necessarily think it’s wrong.
1. Minnetonka (21-0-2)
-The Skippers keep on doing their thing: just as they followed the Wayzata tie with a win in the second meeting, they managed the same feat against Edina. Amid all the wins it can be easy to shrug off just how incredibly good they’ve been, remaining undefeated against the toughest schedule an undefeated team has ever had to play. If they can take care of Eden Prairie, they should be home clear for the first perfect regular season since Lakeville South in 2021 and the first against a non-Covid-affected, full schedule since Benilde in 2016.
This week: Thurs at #9 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. St. Michael-Albertville
2. Edina (19-3-1)
-The Hornets lost to Minnetonka, remaining one half-step behind their Lake Conference rivals in the rankings. I’m keeping them at two because they have the win over Wayzata, though this Saturday’s meeting will settle any debate there, at least for another week and a half or so.
This week: Thurs at St. Michael-Albertville, Sat vs. #3 Wayzata
3. Wayzata (19-2-2)
-The Trojans shut down Eden Prairie to atone for an earlier tie against the Eagles and hold steady ahead of the Edina rematch. After rolling along as the second-ranked team in the state for much of the season, can they get back there and dodge the semifinal Benilde bullet with a win at Braemar?
This week: Wed at Holy Angels, Sat at #2 Edina
4. Chanhassen (19-4)
-The Storm ran its win streak to 12 and continues to hold steady, the clear top four team who nonetheless remains a mild mystery given its non-Lake schedule down the stretch; an overtime game with Orono raises an eyebrow, but it also isn't enough to upend my view of them. We know they’re good, but just how good? A second clear win over Benilde would keep up the pressure on the higher-ranked teams here.
This week: Thurs vs. #5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat vs. New Prague
5. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (19-4-1)
-The Red Knights continue to lurk in the 5-spot and look pretty good in the process, finishing off both Hermantown and Grand Rapids over the weekend. They get a second crack at Chanhassen now to put an exclamation point on their recent run; a win would crash the top four party and make the 6AA race awfully interesting.
This week: Thurs at #4 Chanhassen
6. Maple Grove (18-5)
-The Crimson had a very strong week, rattling off wins over Centennial, St. Thomas and Lakeville South; even though Shakopee is also on a roll, the long list of quality wins the Crimson have amassed led me to flip the two of them. They’ll look to keep rolling against this very tough season-ending slate.
This week: Wed at #13 Hill-Murray, Fri at #10 Andover
7. Shakopee (19-3-1)
-The wins just keep coming for the Sabers, who beat Prior Lake and bounced back after losing a big early lead against Rosemount. A 20-win regular season is now within reach, and Eastview provides a final pre-sections test before they see what fate awaits them in 2AA.
This week: Tues vs. Farmington, Sat at #11 Eastview
8. Rogers (16-6-2)
-The Royals have had more downs than the XX above them this season, but with the team coming back together after some absences they are starting to play more like the serious contender they have the talent to be, beating White Bear this past week and now riding a 5-game winning streak. They wrap things up against unpredictable Coon Rapids.
This week: Sat at Coon Rapids
9. Eden Prairie (15-7-1)
-The Eagles flew past St. Michael-Albertville but couldn’t muster much offense against Wayzata. I’ve been a little more down on this team than some because they haven’t seriously competed with the three Lake powers down the stretch, but then few have, and their record is comparable to other teams in this neighborhood despite having to play that brutal conference schedule. Along with some attrition in last week’s 8-10, that gets them back into the top ten despite the unremarkable week. We’ll see if they can do anything more with Minnetonka this time around, and Buffalo is a sneaky trap game on Saturday, too.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Buffalo
10. Andover (16-7-1)
-The Huskies got back to business after a two-loss previous week, edging past Centennial to slip back up into the top ten. They close with a de facto conference title game against Maple Grove.
This week: Fri vs. #6 Maple Grove
11. Eastview (15-7-1)
-Is this team now the real favorite to win 3AA? They’ve beaten Rosemount twice and St. Thomas once, and with both of those teams losing a little of their earlier luster, they are now the top highest-ranked team in the section. They’ve got a chance to really grab some attention if they can continue this run through their game with Shakopee this week.
This week: Tues at Apple Valley/Burnsville, Sat vs. #7 Shakopee
12. Rosemount (16-7)
-The Irish are the first of three top ten teams a week ago that that had winless weeks; as they lost by one goal against section rival Eastview and a top ten Shakopee team, they are at the top of this heap. Neither loss is gravely concerning, but they aren’t quite trending the right way. Lakeville South gives them one last top 25 opponent this week.
This week: Tus vs. Lakeville South, Thurs vs. Eagan
13. Hill-Murray (13-8-2)
-The Pioneers beat St. Thomas for a second time to clamber back into the top 15. Their week will be one of the most telling heading into sections: is this team rounding back into playoff form as they so often do, or are they still stuck on more even footing with their 4AA rivals?
This week: Wed vs. #6 Maple Grove, Sat at Moorhead
14. St. Thomas Academy (14-8-2)
-The Cadets had a two-loss week and are fading some here after a peak in late December, with the second Hill loss being the more consequential one. They close with a conference game and one final tune-up of the defensive machine before heading into a tight race for 3AA.
This week: Thurs at Two Rivers
15. Centennial (14-7-2)
-So much for anointing the Cougars a top ten team a week ago: they followed it up with an 0-3 run. Two of the losses were to conference frontrunners, but the Elk River loss was a red flag, albeit one that I don’t think alters too much else. They should get back in the win column to wrap up their regular season.
This week: Tues vs. Blaine, Fri at Blake
The Next Ten
Grand Rapids (14-10)
-The Thunderhawks’ heater came to an end against Benilde on Saturday, a rare game in which their usually reliable back end buckled under heavy pressure. We’ll see if that was just one aberration as they close with an uncharacteristically scuffling Hermantown team.
Stillwater (13-8-1)
-A one-goal win over Cretin does little to change things for the Ponies. Their three-game final week includes two teams in the lower half of the Suburban East and Holy Family.
Lakeville South (15-8)
-Like Stillwater, the Cougars are holding firm in this neighborhood, with a two-goal loss to Maple Grove changing little. They get one last shot at a win to shake things up when they visit Rosemount, and Prior Lake isn’t an easy finale, either.
Roseau (17-6-1)
-The Rams had a strong start to their week with a win over Thief River Falls and a thrashing of Duluth East, but they closed with a clunker against Cloquet. This is a bit concerning because there are a lot of Cloquet-ish teams in 8AA, and even if they are the top seed in the section, the quarterfinals aren’t the total free pass they are in other sections. They close with a tough one against East Grand Forks, whom they tied a month ago.
Moorhead (11-11-1)
-The Spuds beat Warroad in overtime to climb their way to .500 for the first time all season. This run has had its bumps, but they do seem to be improving as time goes along; after a final section game against Brainerd, they have their customary regular season-ender against Hill, which is a chance at a statement heading into the playoffs.
Elk River (14-9-1)
-A second straight week with a big upset has the Elks climbing on up the top 25, as Centennial was their victim this past week. They also needed overtime to beat Bemidji, so like Roseau, they’ll have work to do simply to be in position for a big playoff win, but they are showing a higher ceiling than anyone else in 8AA right now. They wrap against St. Cloud on Tuesday.
Gentry Academy (18-5)
-The Stars got one of their better wins of the season against a fast-falling Holy Family team and have entrenched themselves in this part of the rankings. They wrap up against Armstrong/Cooper and then Sartell, which is one of the teams hovering just outside the top 25.
Champlin Park (14-9-1)
-A quality win over Holy Family gets the Rebels back into the top 25; they’ve rattled off five in a row in what has been a very streaky season. They’ll look to make it six against Mounds View before they try to disrupt 5AA.
White Bear Lake (14-7-1)
-The Bears have lost four of their past five, albeit with different flavors: they gave Rogers a good run, but came up flat against Park, which hurts their standing here. They conclude with the Woodburies and Cretin.
Cretin-Derham Hall (13-8-1)
-The Raiders continue to putter along here following a loss to Stillwater. A busy final week includes Mahtomedi, a game with Park that might decide who gets a home game between the two of them the following week, and White Bear Lake.
1AA
18 Lakeville South
New Prague
Rochester Century/John Marshall
Owatonna
-There isn’t too much controversy here. A win over Owatonna after an earlier tie should lock up a 3-seed for the Rochester co-op; New Prague is not the world’s most confidence-inspiring 2-seed, but the Trojans have the win over Century/John Marshall. I would be surprised to see 6-win Lakeville North go higher than the 5-seed, so it’ll be interesting to see if their tougher schedule still gives them enough for a run to the semis; we shouldn’t forget they gave South a one-goal game in their second meeting.
2AA
1 Minnetonka
4 Chanhassen
7 Shakopee
9 Eden Prairie
-This one is probably set unless Eden Prairie does something against Minnetonka this coming week. The Shakopee-Eden Prairie ordering is the most debatable part here, but with likely 6-seed Prior Lake looking scrappy and probable 5-seed Holy Family backsliding badly, I’m not sure the 3-seed is particularly nice reward unless a team is trying to avoid Tonka until the final.
3AA
11 Eastview
14 St. Thomas Academy
12 Rosemount
Park of Cottage Grove
25 Cretin-Derham Hall
- The news here is Eastview finishing off Rosemount for a second time to claim the top seed in this section. They have earned the easier road through the section, while STA and Rosemount will likely collide in the semis. The Park-Cretin quarterfinal should be a solid one, too, with those teams’ second meeting this coming week likely deciding who gets home ice.
4AA
13 Hill-Murray
24 White Bear Lake
17 Stillwater
22 Gentry Academy
-Record against each other sets the top three fairly well here, with Hill now sitting at 1-0-1, White Bear at 1-1-1, and Stillwater at 1-2. Stillwater has a mild case for jumping higher with White Bear’s losses mounting down the stretch, but this still feels like the right order at the moment. Gentry remains the eternal wild card, but it is hard to justify anything higher than a 4-seed to a team that just hasn’t played the schedule to make a clear top 3 claim, even in a muddled section with no obvious standout.
5AA
6 Maple Grove
15 Centennial
8 Rogers
23 Champlin Park
-The Crimson’s win over Centennial should let us lock in this one. Rogers has the talent to win it all but hasn’t always played that way, so the Royals get a first round date with Coon Rapids for their trouble; their loss to Totino breaks the A-beats-B-beats-C cycle that would otherwise plague the top three, and Maple Grove’s overall body of work is strong enough to rise to the top. Champlin is dynamic enough that it could trouble Maple Grove in a semifinal date.
6AA
2 Edina
3 Wayzata
5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
Holy Angels
-The top seed here will come down to the final day of the regular season. A sweep would give Edina the clear top spot, while a Wayzata win would, I think, give them the slightly better body of work they’d need to break the season split. With Benilde lurking as a dangerous 3-seed, the top seed has serious value. The Red Knights’ comfortable win over Holy Angels locked in the 3- and 4-seeds this past week.
7AA
16 Grand Rapids
10 Andover
Duluth East
Rock Ridge
-Grand Rapids threw a twist in this one with the win in Andover and should be the top seed now. It gets thin very quickly, with an eight-win Duluth East team as the 3-seed with two wins over Rock Ridge and Rock Ridge owning wins over the other two Duluth schools who join Forest Lake in the middle tier of this section.
8AA
19 Roseau
20 Moorhead
Sartell
21 Elk River
-What do we do with the 8AA soup? Roseau has the best body of work and a split with Moorhead, though they do have some other section losses that they could get whacked for, and that Cloquet loss leaves a sour note that could cost them, too. The Spuds’ only section loss is that second Roseau game. Sartell tied Moorhead and has played the top two tough, so is probably next in line. Elk River has various section losses and isn’t consistent but is playing the most dangerous hockey at the moment; is that enough to get them some extra votes? Buffalo could be a nasty draw as the likely 5-seed, though. In short, I think this order makes sense, but seeing something totally different wouldn’t shock me, nor would I necessarily think it’s wrong.