Pridictability of Class AA - state

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elliott70
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Location: Bemidji

Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by elliott70 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:24 pm

"by northwoods oldtimer » 19 Mar 2019 14:04
elliott70 wrote: ↑
19 Mar 2019 12:30
1 Moorhead BORING!!!!
2 Roseau
3 St cloud
4 Bemidji
5 Brainerd
6 StM-A
7 Buffalo
8 Rogers "

AA is getting boring in who is there. The hockey is very good, but the rest is the same old, same old.
This decade 2010 t0 2011
Section 1 Lakeville N or S 90 percent of the time
Section 2 Edina 80%
Section 3 STA 40% (and they were in Class A for first 4 years of the decade)
Section 4 HM 60%
Section 7 Duluth East 80%
Section 8 Moorhead 50%

StanleyCup55
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by StanleyCup55 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:39 pm

Hermantown, East Grand Forks, St. Cloud Cathedral, Alexandria. Move these teams up to AA. Then make a few moves to the sections in the metro and it’ll help.

Also not sure why teams (like Mounds View, Hopkins, St Louis Park, Anoka, Burnsville, Jefferson, etc...) don’t recruit like Edina, Tonka or EP? I would think there would be kids, who wouldn’t get a lot of ice time at a certain program, that would transfer to get more ice time elsewhere with open enrollment. Like when Edina has 100 kids tryout how are some of the bubble players not just transferring to Hopkins or SLP to get more varsity ice time?

greenwayraider
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by greenwayraider » Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:17 pm

The State AA Tournament is definitely losing its luster. The only interest I had was if White Bear Lake could get into the semis. Oh, I was rooting for East and Moorhead but it was not the intense following I've had in the past. When the two Lake Conference foes made it to the finals I had no desire to watch and didn't. Apparently I wasn't the only one as attendance was only 16,000 something. I'd be very curious to see what the TV rating were. Attendance has been steadily declining over the past few years. Class A has somewhat of a problem as Section 2, 7, 8 and 6 dominate the semis although Monticello has broken through. I don't see a solution for this as economics (private schools and the Lake Conference) and enrollment (Lake Conference) seem to drive success. Hopefully Chaska and Chanhassen can break through in the near future to add some life and variety to AA and Section 5A can continue to get stronger.

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:47 pm

elliott70 wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:24 pm
"by northwoods oldtimer » 19 Mar 2019 14:04
elliott70 wrote: ↑
19 Mar 2019 12:30
1 Moorhead BORING!!!!
2 Roseau
3 St cloud
4 Bemidji
5 Brainerd
6 StM-A
7 Buffalo
8 Rogers "

AA is getting boring in who is there. The hockey is very good, but the rest is the same old, same old.
This decade 2010 t0 2011
Section 1 Lakeville N or S 90 percent of the time
Section 2 Edina 80%
Section 3 STA 40% (and they were in Class A for first 4 years of the decade)
Section 4 HM 60%
Section 7 Duluth East 80%
Section 8 Moorhead 50%
@StanleyCup55 I would have expected more free agency as well with close proximity of metro area schools.
@elliott thanks for putting numbers to the teams. My goodness it is very predictable AA event. Helps with booking St. Paul hotels I guess.

I am an old turd so what do I know about modern day sports. The programs are good the kids are amazing good but something has been missing for a long time now. The younger folks can't grasp our old tales, which is well understood as you can opt for A level and go to state, you can pick up a basketball and play in 5 different levels and get a chance at state.
I do know that we are suckers for the Cinderella teams. Case in point Greenway 2019.
Now I know on paper not a chance a Greenway beats an Edina. However many of you may not recall the excitement surrounding david verse goliath
game at St. Paul. Almost impossible to land a ticket. So Edina mops up Greenway 9 of 10. Who doesn't want to be in that crazed barn the one time Greenway knocks off the sure thing team? You'd be talking about for decades!!!
Hockey was unique in its single class madness which generated national attention.
Would a Tier 1 / Tier 2 rekindle some of the euphoria of St Paul past and give us better representation of teams at the big dance? Increased chances for an epic small school verse big school game?
If tiny Greenway scored one goal against an Edina the roof would lift off from Excel Energy Center. The fan chants would be epic, the atmosphere electric.
Fans at the rate of 21,485 flocked to see Eden Prairie against Grand Rapids back in 2017. Folks may not know that Rapids is a single A school playing up. Now that game Eden Prairie wins 8 of 10 times with the mighty Casey M he is that good. I can guarantee that many of those paid customers came in hopes of a one time upset. That is the most electric that building has been since the old single tier tournament. Conjecture? maybe but ask some of the gray haired folk who are annual in attendance.
All I am saying is fans of hockey would get one, maybe two of those type annually in St. Paul. Hey some times it is only for a period or two or maybe three, by God OT!! No way!!
Every kid from Warroad to Windom would dream of playing in "the tournament"!!
Do kids still dream? Do they still work for that one time chance to make the biggest dance in youth sports?
Sure would make for some fantastic section games. Section 8 would be a epic battle each year. Roseau - Warroad would return to the gloried arch rivals of years past. Oh here come East Grand in 2025 to take on Wayzata in the quarter final, better get to my seat this is going to be an epic game!!!
Maybe the divide between the haves and have not's continues a trend towards predictability as the sport is economically out of reach for far too many people.
Maybe people are happy with the status quo teams. Maybe we have settled for static expectations. I for one would love to see a return to the old small school big school battles. It made for great copy, great legends, great atmosphere. Kids would play in front of big crowds all 2 or 3 games and all at Excel.
I miss the pre-game buzz and excitement of the old St. Paul, the droves of fans trying to land a ticket.

Stang5280
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Stang5280 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:04 pm

Hot take alert: several of the sections were rather predictable dating back to the single class era. Like many of you, I recall ye olden days fondly and cherish my memories of playing for a small school going up against the big boys in sections. That said, we pretty much knew how our season was going to end even before it started: with a loss to Jefferson or Kennedy in the semis.

Here are some of the more predictable sections from the 1980s...
Section 1: Burnsville 50% (5 straight)
Section 3: Hill-Murray 60%
Section 4: South St. Paul 50%
Section 5: Bloomington Jefferson 50% (plus once from Section 1 in 1980)
Section 6: Edina 60% (plus Edina West once)

Noticing a trend? These were all Twin Cities sections (except 1). I think what most people are lamenting are that the northern sections now have dominant programs in Duluth East and Moorhead. During this same time period Sections 7 and 8 were a revolving door with Grand Rapids, Hibbing, EGF, Bemidji, Warroad, etc. all taking turns at the top (Section 2 was just a complete mess). So for those of us who grew up in the metro area, we are used to this predictable nature of the tournament, but the names have just changed. Well, except for Edina and HM, that is.

Edinahopkins
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Edinahopkins » Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:17 pm

Stang5280 wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:04 pm
Hot take alert: several of the sections were rather predictable dating back to the single class era. Like many of you, I recall ye olden days fondly and cherish my memories of playing for a small school going up against the big boys in sections. That said, we pretty much knew how our season was going to end even before it started: with a loss to Jefferson or Kennedy in the semis.

Here are some of the more predictable sections from the 1980s...
Section 1: Burnsville 50% (5 straight)
Section 3: Hill-Murray 60%
Section 4: South St. Paul 50%
Section 5: Bloomington Jefferson 50% (plus once from Section 1 in 1980)
Section 6: Edina 60% (plus Edina West once)

Noticing a trend? These were all Twin Cities sections (except 1). I think what most people are lamenting are that the northern sections now have dominant programs in Duluth East and Moorhead. During this same time period Sections 7 and 8 were a revolving door with Grand Rapids, Hibbing, EGF, Bemidji, Warroad, etc. all taking turns at the top (Section 2 was just a complete mess). So for those of us who grew up in the metro area, we are used to this predictable nature of the tournament, but the names have just changed. Well, except for Edina and HM, that is.
Rapids owned section 7 at one point went 8 years in a row 1974- 1981

karl(east)
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by karl(east) » Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:23 pm

Stang5280 wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:04 pm
Hot take alert: several of the sections were rather predictable dating back to the single class era. Like many of you, I recall ye olden days fondly and cherish my memories of playing for a small school going up against the big boys in sections. That said, we pretty much knew how our season was going to end even before it started: with a loss to Jefferson or Kennedy in the semis.

Here are some of the more predictable sections from the 1980s...
Section 1: Burnsville 50% (5 straight)
Section 3: Hill-Murray 60%
Section 4: South St. Paul 50%
Section 5: Bloomington Jefferson 50% (plus once from Section 1 in 1980)
Section 6: Edina 60% (plus Edina West once)

Noticing a trend? These were all Twin Cities sections (except 1). I think what most people are lamenting are that the northern sections now have dominant programs in Duluth East and Moorhead. During this same time period Sections 7 and 8 were a revolving door with Grand Rapids, Hibbing, EGF, Bemidji, Warroad, etc. all taking turns at the top (Section 2 was just a complete mess). So for those of us who grew up in the metro area, we are used to this predictable nature of the tournament, but the names have just changed. Well, except for Edina and HM, that is.
Stang is on to something here. While I think we can point to periods here and there where there was greater parity and the names of the dominant teams (with a couple of exceptions) have come and gone, more often than not there are teams dominating certain sections. Even the good old days of yore there were a lot of dynastic programs.

I'd even push back some on the northern narrative: even that was a relatively small window of parity in the North. Roseau won 15 out of 19 8AA titles from 1953-1971...if you want to see some real lopsided section scores year after year, check out what the Rams did to their competition in those days. Rapids won Region 7 eight years in a row in the 70s/80s. Immediately before that, you had runs of 9 of 12 (or 13 of 18) for International Falls (a couple of those out of the old back door). Before that, you had the Eveleth dynasty. The back door helped get some northern variety in the Tourney, but historically many of those teams were just as dominant relative to their competition as East and Moorhead have been in the 2-class era, if not more so.

And for what it's worth, that decade of northern parity was not a great time for northern hockey. 218 had no appearances in the state title game between Rapids' 1980 title and Roseau's win over Rapids in 1990. Now, we're just two years removed from Rapids over Moorhead in the state championship game, East has been there twice in the past five years, Bemidji busted through and went to State for the first time in decades just a few years back...I'm rambling now, but my point is that these times aren't as different from the past as they seem.

We could argue that the flavor of the domination has changed, and that socioeconomics and enrollment matter more than they used to, which I think is true. (Though even there...Iron Range enrollments back in the day were often several times what they are now, and there was a fair bit more wealth, too. And the Minneapolis and St. Paul schools had whittled themselves down from early relative parity to haves and have-nots by the 70s. And in the glory days of Burnsville and Bloomington and Richfield, those were the exciting new places where lots of new houses were going up...I've written about these waves of success before.) I certainly don't foresee those socioeconomic factors of suburban growth and concentration of wealth and the current urban/rural dynamic becoming any less important anytime soon. But I think the present is a bit more like the past than some people realize.

zooomx
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by zooomx » Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:34 pm

StanleyCup55 wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:39 pm
Hermantown, East Grand Forks, St. Cloud Cathedral, Alexandria. Move these teams up to AA. Then make a few moves to the sections in the metro and it’ll help.

Also not sure why teams (like Mounds View, Hopkins, St Louis Park, Anoka, Burnsville, Jefferson, etc...) don’t recruit like Edina, Tonka or EP? I would think there would be kids, who wouldn’t get a lot of ice time at a certain program, that would transfer to get more ice time elsewhere with open enrollment. Like when Edina has 100 kids tryout how are some of the bubble players not just transferring to Hopkins or SLP to get more varsity ice time?
Alexandria has made the Class A semifinals once... once. Why do they need to move up?

Stang5280
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Stang5280 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:02 pm

I won’t bother quoting your whole post, but thanks for adding the historical perspective for the northern teams, Karl (and eloquently at that). I am aware of some of the older dynasties, but wanted to pick a more modern era just prior to the change to two classes. A decade is an easy reference point, but also somewhat arbitrary in that it cuts off some portions of dynasties, like the Rapids run or Jefferson’s continued dominance into the 1990s.

Your points about socioeconomic factors are always very important, and it will be interesting to see if there will be any shifts in power to the outlying suburbs (like Andover or Chaska), or if the current dominant programs can retain their positions.

Stang5280
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Stang5280 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:08 pm

zooomx wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:34 pm
StanleyCup55 wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:39 pm
Hermantown, East Grand Forks, St. Cloud Cathedral, Alexandria. Move these teams up to AA. Then make a few moves to the sections in the metro and it’ll help.

Also not sure why teams (like Mounds View, Hopkins, St Louis Park, Anoka, Burnsville, Jefferson, etc...) don’t recruit like Edina, Tonka or EP? I would think there would be kids, who wouldn’t get a lot of ice time at a certain program, that would transfer to get more ice time elsewhere with open enrollment. Like when Edina has 100 kids tryout how are some of the bubble players not just transferring to Hopkins or SLP to get more varsity ice time?
Alexandria has made the Class A semifinals once... once. Why do they need to move up?
The funny thing about pushing for 7AA and 8AA to consist solely of northern teams is that the metro teams in those sections rarely have made it to state. Yes, the idea of having no northern representatives in the AA tournament sucks, but let’s not destroy Class A in the process.

O-townClown
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by O-townClown » Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:38 pm

greenwayraider wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:17 pm
The State AA Tournament is definitely losing its luster.
How so?
Be kind. Rewind.

WestMetro
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by WestMetro » Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:32 pm

Some predictability trends ARE changing:

Edina going to take a dip after this year, remains to be seen how deep and time to recover

EP facing a significant youth enrollment/talent dip after the PeeWee class that just won the state

Holy Family will get a big boost with the current CC PeeWee class

Cretin will provide quick competition to STA when they move back to 3 , and Rosemount is on the rise

PL should be moved to 1 to give Lakeville some much needed competition

Stillwater should see some more improvement soon and continue to challenge Bears/Pios each year

Let’s hope MG can stop annual bleeding of talent
and TG opt up could make things interesting
Last edited by WestMetro on Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Section 8 guy
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Section 8 guy » Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:48 pm

O-townClown wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:38 pm
greenwayraider wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:17 pm
The State AA Tournament is definitely losing its luster.
How so?
Was thinking the same thing.

And we'll stated Karl and Stang. Agree completely on things being more similar to the past than is being described here.

goldy313
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by goldy313 » Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:23 am

Breaking my fasting ban on social media here, but I will post only facts....
No Rochester or Big Nine school has been in a 1AA final since 2009. Only Farmington (twice) has broken up the North vs. South final in a decade.
1A has been wide open the last decade with MN River, East, Northfield, West, New Prague twice, and Lourdes making state the last 8 years.

northwoods oldtimer
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:13 am

goldy313 wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:23 am
Breaking my fasting ban on social media here, but I will post only facts....
No Rochester or Big Nine school has been in a 1AA final since 2009. Only Farmington (twice) has broken up the North vs. South final in a decade.
1A has been wide open the last decade with MN River, East, Northfield, West, New Prague twice, and Lourdes making state the last 8 years.
Holy cow Goldy that's full decade absence. :(
I see there are a handful of loyalist who prefer the same boring teams at the AA each year.
I think it has lost some luster with the split. It's a watered down tournament with the A / AA.
Quarters are a complete joke in single A and the AA ranking is a political gong show.
No denying that the one class event was premiere HS tournament in the nation when it existed.
I get it though we live in an era where everyone is entitled the opportunity to make a state trip.
You loyalist keep paying that bloated MSHSL ticket price and convince yourself its an "exciting" annual tournament.

Mite-dad
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Mite-dad » Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:21 am

zooomx wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:34 pm
StanleyCup55 wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:39 pm
Hermantown, East Grand Forks, St. Cloud Cathedral, Alexandria. Move these teams up to AA. Then make a few moves to the sections in the metro and it’ll help.

Also not sure why teams (like Mounds View, Hopkins, St Louis Park, Anoka, Burnsville, Jefferson, etc...) don’t recruit like Edina, Tonka or EP? I would think there would be kids, who wouldn’t get a lot of ice time at a certain program, that would transfer to get more ice time elsewhere with open enrollment. Like when Edina has 100 kids tryout how are some of the bubble players not just transferring to Hopkins or SLP to get more varsity ice time?
Alexandria has made the Class A semifinals once... once. Why do they need to move up?
Come on zooomx, don't you know that if Alex was in 8AA it would somehow make Moorhead's dominance more interesting???!

StanleyCup55
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by StanleyCup55 » Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:06 am

Why was the two tier and/or two class system created?

Answer: To give more kids and teams the opportunity to play at state.

Why are we trying to create two equal tournaments? We have AA caliber teams playing against and beating up on the weaker towns. I can’t agree with that being ok.

I don’t think Alex should move up just because they made it to the finals one time. So... if they make it to the A finals 3 times then they should go up to AA? That’s pure poppycoc k! They should move up because they have enough numbers and talent to compete at the AA level just like East Grand Forks and Hermantown. Mahtomedi as well. These teams go into the A tourney and mop up on the small towns right away then the semis are like AA tier 2 hockey. It’s a complete joke and a disgrace to the game of hockey. The level of skill from Hermantown, Alex, EGF, Mahtomedi, Cathedral to New Ulm, Chisago, Princeton, Little Falls, Marshall, North Branch etc... is way to big of a gap to be considered fair. These teams barely have a chance to win those quarterfinal games and I know there were some upsets a few years ago and some close games once but for the most part they’re all blowouts. It surprises me that people overlook that just so they can have a Class A championship game between two AA hockey programs. How can you honestly say that it’s fair to put Hermantown or Mahtomedi against New Ulm or Litchfield in a state tournament and call it fair? Especially when this happens almost every single year!

I’ll also have to repcestully disagree with Karl and Stang about those percentages.
Lakeville North/South 90% of the time compared to Burnsville at 50%? I know north and south are two different teams but it’s the same town. Still, you have Duluth East at 80%, Hill at 60%. The percentages from the 80s are higher which prove Elliott’s point. I also took it a step further and looked up how many different teams actually qualified for state in each decade dating back to the 80s.

1980-1989
37 different teams made state

1990-1999
32 different teams made state

2000-2009
33 different teams made state

2010-2019
26 different teams made state

Looks to me like it’s going the way of the same teams. Both the %’s and the number of teams support that. Yet people are on here saying that it’s the same when the numbers clearly show they’re not! This boggles my mind just like the fact that Hermantown is still in Class A, Elk River and Andover are still in Section 7AA and the league allows AA caliber teams to play A hockey. I really do wonder who is in charge over at the MSHSL.

If you make a few changes you help bring more variety and excitement to the AA tournament. It makes sense to me that if you move these few teams up and move a few teams around in the metro you can have a better product on the ice at the X both in Class A and AA. If you get some of the teams out of A that are far and away better than most of the other teams in Class A then you will have a much better Class A tournament. And this isn’t re-creating the tier 1 tier 2 system. It’s creating two well balanced state tournaments and good competition in both classes.

Edinahopkins
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Edinahopkins » Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:11 am

goldy313 wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:23 am
Breaking my fasting ban on social media here, but I will post only facts....
No Rochester or Big Nine school has been in a 1AA final since 2009. Only Farmington (twice) has broken up the North vs. South final in a decade.
1A has been wide open the last decade with MN River, East, Northfield, West, New Prague twice, and Lourdes making state the last 8 years.
I don’t know much about Rochester youth hockey but I don’t even see a Bantam AA team listed this past season? I know it’s tough 3 schools one youth program. I don’t really know the answer for them maybe try splitting them into 3 youth programs or at least two? But maybe they don’t have the numbers would the numbers come back if they went to two AA bantam teams?

zooomx
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by zooomx » Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:49 am

There are gaps all over the spectrum. Move up the best 5-6 teams from A to AA and then there will be 5-6 more teams that emerge as the dominate teams in A. Then we will hear that they need to move up. There needs to be a line somewhere. There are probably 25-30 current AA teams that feel they don't get a chance to compete with the big boys. Should their frustrations be addressed? Where does it stop? Maybe we should have a 3rd Tier for the bottom 30-40 teams in A? 3 classes - Lets say the top 48 teams are AAA. The middle 48 are AA and the rest go to A. I don't know... seems like someone will always have a gripe.

Slap Shot
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Slap Shot » Wed Mar 20, 2019 11:40 am

Uh, the AA tournament is still revered as one of the premier HS events in the country so anyone saying otherwise is not paying attention. I too would prefer there be a one class (or even a 16 team tournament made up of 8A and 8AA teams) but it's never going back to the way it was.

Goose21
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Goose21 » Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:55 pm

StanleyCup55 wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:06 am
Why was the two tier and/or two class system created?

Answer: To give more kids and teams the opportunity to play at state.

Why are we trying to create two equal tournaments? We have AA caliber teams playing against and beating up on the weaker towns. I can’t agree with that being ok.

I don’t think Alex should move up just because they made it to the finals one time. So... if they make it to the A finals 3 times then they should go up to AA? That’s pure poppycoc k! They should move up because they have enough numbers and talent to compete at the AA level just like East Grand Forks and Hermantown. Mahtomedi as well. These teams go into the A tourney and mop up on the small towns right away then the semis are like AA tier 2 hockey. It’s a complete joke and a disgrace to the game of hockey. The level of skill from Hermantown, Alex, EGF, Mahtomedi, Cathedral to New Ulm, Chisago, Princeton, Little Falls, Marshall, North Branch etc... is way to big of a gap to be considered fair. These teams barely have a chance to win those quarterfinal games and I know there were some upsets a few years ago and some close games once but for the most part they’re all blowouts. It surprises me that people overlook that just so they can have a Class A championship game between two AA hockey programs. How can you honestly say that it’s fair to put Hermantown or Mahtomedi against New Ulm or Litchfield in a state tournament and call it fair? Especially when this happens almost every single year!

I’ll also have to repcestully disagree with Karl and Stang about those percentages.
Lakeville North/South 90% of the time compared to Burnsville at 50%? I know north and south are two different teams but it’s the same town. Still, you have Duluth East at 80%, Hill at 60%. The percentages from the 80s are higher which prove Elliott’s point. I also took it a step further and looked up how many different teams actually qualified for state in each decade dating back to the 80s.

1980-1989
37 different teams made state

1990-1999
32 different teams made state

2000-2009
33 different teams made state

2010-2019
26 different teams made state

Looks to me like it’s going the way of the same teams. Both the %’s and the number of teams support that. Yet people are on here saying that it’s the same when the numbers clearly show they’re not! This boggles my mind just like the fact that Hermantown is still in Class A, Elk River and Andover are still in Section 7AA and the league allows AA caliber teams to play A hockey. I really do wonder who is in charge over at the MSHSL.

If you make a few changes you help bring more variety and excitement to the AA tournament. It makes sense to me that if you move these few teams up and move a few teams around in the metro you can have a better product on the ice at the X both in Class A and AA. If you get some of the teams out of A that are far and away better than most of the other teams in Class A then you will have a much better Class A tournament. And this isn’t re-creating the tier 1 tier 2 system. It’s creating two well balanced state tournaments and good competition in both classes.

How do you define "compete"? Because I really don't see programs like Alex or EGF really "competing" at the AA level. How many times would they really be able to beat a program like Moorhead over the course of the next 5 years? Are they going to be competitive in a AA section or be 5-6 seeds every year? How do they measure up against AA programs across the state? They are good A programs, but average at best AA most years.
I guess I don't see how adding them to AA really makes AA hockey better.
Forecheck, Backcheck, Paycheck

yesiplayedhockey
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Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by yesiplayedhockey » Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:16 pm

My crystal ball says this (and it's right 50% of the time...The other 50% of the time it's wrong)

Over the next 3,5,10 years I think you will see the same 4-6 teams dominating the class AA tournament

Yes we all know 8 teams get invited and yes a team like a Lakeville South or say Burnsville will occasionally make it to state. But I predict that 70-80% of the time the class AA winner will be one of those same 4-6 teams.. I predict we may never see a state FINAL that didn't at least have one of those 4-6 teams in it

Right now AAA parents are whispering to each other "what if we could keep this AAA team together in the winter? What if we all went there...or here. or or or.

AAA hockey, for all it's good, has actually helped private schools (and some public schools) build their business...I mean team...

I see the trend continuing and growing. I see more and more "high schools" becoming all star teams. Yes the state tournament will still have 8 schools. Yes some schools like LS will get there 1 out every 10 years. But if you're asking me, I believe more time than not, the winner of the state tournament will most likely come from that elite group of same schools.

bodyup88
Posts: 88
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:58 am

Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by bodyup88 » Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:30 pm

Is your list 4 or 6?

northwoods oldtimer
Posts: 2432
Joined: Thu Dec 21, 2006 1:01 pm

Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by northwoods oldtimer » Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:50 pm

yesiplayedhockey wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:16 pm
My crystal ball says this (and it's right 50% of the time...The other 50% of the time it's wrong)

Over the next 3,5,10 years I think you will see the same 4-6 teams dominating the class AA tournament

Yes we all know 8 teams get invited and yes a team like a Lakeville South or say Burnsville will occasionally make it to state. But I predict that 70-80% of the time the class AA winner will be one of those same 4-6 teams.. I predict we may never see a state FINAL that didn't at least have one of those 4-6 teams in it

Right now AAA parents are whispering to each other "what if we could keep this AAA team together in the winter? What if we all went there...or here. or or or.

AAA hockey, for all it's good, has actually helped private schools (and some public schools) build their business...I mean team...

I see the trend continuing and growing. I see more and more "high schools" becoming all star teams. Yes the state tournament will still have 8 schools. Yes some schools like LS will get there 1 out every 10 years. But if you're asking me, I believe more time than not, the winner of the state tournament will most likely come from that elite group of same schools.
@yesiplayedhockey NAILED IT!!!

Stang5280
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Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 1:12 pm

Re: Pridictability of Class AA - state

Post by Stang5280 » Wed Mar 20, 2019 4:22 pm

StanleyCup55 wrote:
Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:06 am
I’ll also have to repcestully disagree with Karl and Stang about those percentages.
Lakeville North/South 90% of the time compared to Burnsville at 50%? I know north and south are two different teams but it’s the same town. Still, you have Duluth East at 80%, Hill at 60%. The percentages from the 80s are higher which prove Elliott’s point. I also took it a step further and looked up how many different teams actually qualified for state in each decade dating back to the 80s.

1980-1989
37 different teams made state

1990-1999
32 different teams made state

2000-2009
33 different teams made state

2010-2019
26 different teams made state

Looks to me like it’s going the way of the same teams. Both the %’s and the number of teams support that. Yet people are on here saying that it’s the same when the numbers clearly show they’re not! This boggles my mind just like the fact that Hermantown is still in Class A, Elk River and Andover are still in Section 7AA and the league allows AA caliber teams to play A hockey. I really do wonder who is in charge over at the MSHSL.
I won't bother addressing the A/AA alignments, since that is a horse that has been beaten to death already and both sides basically have their heels dug in and aren't budging on their stances.

Here few points I do feel are worth addressing, however. First, 1AA presents almost an unsolvable dilemma at this stage. There are simply not enough AA size and/or caliber programs in that corner of the state to make it a truly southeastern section. So you have to shoehorn a few of the south suburban schools down there to fill out the section. Unfortunately, Rochester hockey is in such rough shape right now that they can barely fill out the rosters for the four schools in the city, much less compete with the Lakevilles, even when those teams are hovering around .500. You could shuffle some other south suburban schools into the section, but the same basic problem remains.

Excellent research in bringing up the number of state participants during each decade. It definitely does show that we have seen more of the same faces in AA recently than any other decade in recent history. Whether that is an aberration or a trend remains to be seen, however.

I would also point out that the 1980s were a unique period where the balance of power was transitioning from the north to the metro area, and schools were consolidating or closing. There were a number of tournament appearances by schools that no longer have hockey teams or have closed entirely: Columbia Heights, Minneapolis Southwest, WB Mariner, Hopkins Lindbergh, etc. And then there are a few programs that are no longer relevant or don't play at the AA level, such as Henry Sibley, Irondale, Denfeld, Warroad, Richfield, and Kennedy. By the end of the decade, however, we started seeing more of the same faces crop up repeatedly in the tournament, particularly the Edina/Jefferson/HM trifecta. So perhaps the 1980s were an aberration in the number of programs qualifying for state, as the numbers were lower but stable over the next few decades.

I guess the bottom line of what I have been getting at is that we should have some patience and faith in the system. It has largely worked well for many years, and making giant changes may lead to unintended consequences, and we could end up ruining what is still the best HS hockey tournament in the nation.

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