AA Rankings for 2/4/24

[karl(east)]

With two weeks left in the regular season we’ve got a riveting three-way battle in the Lake, a couple of lurking teams playing relatively light schedules at this point in the season, and then a great big jumble, with some new faces in the 13-15 range this week. We’re coming down to the wire, and outside of 1AA, the section races are looking pretty good just about everywhere. Your rankings:

1. Minnetonka (19-0-2)
-The Skippers were pushed to the brink by Wayzata, spotting the Trojans an early 2-goal lead and embarking on another overtime adventure, but they showed their championship mettle and pulled it out to keep that zero in the loss column. We’ll do it again this coming week when they face Edina: after atoning for one of their ties, can they do the same with the other?
This week: Thurs at Prior Lake, Sat vs. #2 Edina

2. Edina (18-2-1)
-It didn’t come easily against Hill for the Hornets, but it never really does in this series, even in a down year for the Pioneers. Giles and company got the two wins they needed to hold their place here and set up their second shot at the top team in the state. Can they do what Wayzata could not and get a second quality result against the Skippers?
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at #1 Minnetonka

3. Wayzata (17-2-2)
-It has been a frustrating few weeks for the Trojans, who came out of the gate looking like world-beaters against both Minnetonka and Edina; against the Hornets they failed to finish and saw the game slip away, while against the Skippers they built a lead but couldn’t keep it. At their best they can control a game against literally anyone, but some questions about their ability to finish the deal are arising here in Lake play in a way they wouldn’t anywhere else. On paper this week is what counts as a break in this conference, but Eden Prairie did tie them the first time around.
This week: Fri vs. Blake, Sat vs. #12 Eden Prairie

4. Chanhassen (17-4)
-The Storm ran its win streak to ten games and continues to mop up as the Lake teams carry on with their heavyweight fights. Orono may be a good Class A team, but there’s still not much reason to expect much difference this coming week.
This week: Thurs at Chaska, Sat at Orono

5. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (16-4-1)
-Hey, a team finally stuck at number five: the Red Knights rolled past New Prague, handled Orono, and atoned for a holiday tourney tie against Holy Angels, inking the 3-seed in 6AA and sending a quiet reminder to Edina and Wayzata that they are lurking in the semis for whoever does not claim the top seed. It’s a busy week ahead at the St. Louis Park Rec Center, with a Class A contender (albeit a scuffling one) and the surging Thunderhawks.
This week: Tues vs. Bloomington Jefferson, Fri vs. Hermantown, Sat vs. #13 Grand Rapids

6. Shakopee (17-3-1)
-The beat just keeps going for the Sabers, who thumped Holy Family and pulled one out against Lakeville South to hold steady here. Give them credit for doing what other teams are not and taking care of everyone they should beat down the stretch here. Things get a little more thorny in this upcoming week, with a pesky Prior Lake team that has beaten them once already and a chance to sweep Rosemount and all but lock up a South Suburban championship.
This week: Tues vs. Prior Lake, Sat vs. #10 Rosemount

7. Maple Grove (15-5)
-The Crimson continued their steady ways and didn’t leave much doubt in their contest with Totino, who has done damage against other 5AA contenders. They have one of the most challenging pushes to the end of any team in the state, with a vital section battle followed by two Tourney contenders. Can they maintain their stable placement here against the two teams immediately below them.
This week: Tues vs. #9 Centennial, Thurs vs. #8 St. Thomas Academy, Sat at Lakeville South

8. St. Thomas Academy (14-6-2)
-The Cadets thumped fading Mahtomedi and took care of business in their other conference game this past week, too. This week brings two last big chances to prove themselves in the regular season, as they jockey with a team they’ve been near in the rankings for much of the season on Thursday and get a chance to avenge their rough Hill loss over the weekend.
This week: Thurs at #7 Maple Grove, Sat vs. Hill-Murray

9. Centennial (14-4-2)
-The good times keep rolling for the Cougars, who finished off Duluth East and White Bear Lake to move to 10-0-1 since the start of the new year. This week they get the two teams that have ruled the South Suburban over the last 5-plus years, Maple Grove and Andover; can they keep the momentum going and make a play for the top seed in 5AA? Elk River hovers as a trap game between the two, too.
This week: Tues at #7 Maple Grove, Thurs at Elk River, Sat at #14 Andover

10. Rosemount (16-5)
-The Irish continue to plug along, having won 6 straight against conference competition, only once with any real drama; the 6-1 margin against Prior Lake this week was a good sign. But after a somewhat sleepy stretch, the week ahead is huge for them: they get a chance to avenge an earlier loss to Eastview and improve their section standing, and Shakopee was the last team to beat them.
This week: Tues at Eastview, Sat at #6 Shakopee

11. Rogers (13-6-2)
-The Royals had a steadying week after a rough patch, including a win over a quality Stillwater team. They’ll look to handle another Suburban East opponent this coming week; it’s their last game against a top 25 opponent (though they do have a couple more on the fringes) and they’ll have to do with winning out in this stretch as they try to find their swagger again heading into sections.
This week: Tues vs. White Bear Lake, Thurs vs. Spring Lake Park, Sat vs. Duluth East

12. Eden Prairie (14-6-1)
-The Eagles took care of a couple of the eastern suburbs’ best with a convincing win over White Bear and an overtime escape against Stillwater. Can they do some damage against Wayzata for a second time?
This week: Thurs at St. Michael-Albertville, Sat at #3 Wayzata

13. Grand Rapids (13-9)
-This is one of those rankings where you ride the hot hand. The Thunderhawks made their statement on Friday night, slipping past Andover for their third straight win against a team that had been in the top ten at the time of the game. They’re defensive stalwarts and they are trending in the right direction, and they’ll get a shot at another significant win this week. Just how high is this group’s ceiling?
This week: Tues at Duluth Denfeld, Sat at #5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

14. Andover (14-7-1)
-The Huskies had a week they’d rather forget. A loss to Elk River was their most questionable of the season, and a loss in Grand Rapids the next night may relegate them to the 2-seed in 7AA. They scored just once in those two games; an offensive power outage was certainly the concern going into the season, and Grand Rapids’ heaviness negated any advantage they may have had in depth. We’ll see if they can rebound against Centennial, which is now atop the table in the Northwest Suburban.
This week: Thurs at Blaine, Sat vs. #9 Centennial

15. Roseau (15-5-1)
-The Rams have been the strongest team in 8AA for much of the season, and they burst through with a big win over Moorhead that should get them the top seed in spite of some early section losses. Of course that’s only worth so much in this section, and we’ll see if the monkey is off their back or if it’s just a prelude to another playoff frustration. For now, though, it is a big win, and they’ll look to build on that against a bunch of teams in the middle tier of things.
This week: Mon vs. Thief River Falls, Fri at Duluth East, Sat at Cloquet

The Next Ten

Hill-Murray (11-8-2)
-The Pioneers held their own in twin 5-3 losses to Edina, showing they could be a problem for a top team in the quarterfinals like they were a season ago if they can make it through, but struggling to build a record that could lift them toward a seed. A season sweep of St. Thomas might get them back into the top 15.

Eastview (13-7-1)
-The Lightning rolled past Chaska and Mounds View to keep pace in everything here. A huge 3AA seeding scrap with Rosemount is up next.

Stillwater (11-8-1)
-The Ponies lost twice this past week, and while they didn’t get blown out by Rogers and gave Eden Prairie a very good run, the losses are mounting, and it feels like they’ve somewhat reverted to where they were early in the season after a momentary midseason burst. They’ll go for the season sweep of Cretin this week, and a win there would have them sitting pretty for at least a share of the Suburban East crown.

Lakeville South (13-7)
-The Cougars seem etched in stone in this portion of the rankings, as a narrow win over Cretin and a narrow loss to Shakopee just seem to confirm this placement. Throw out a blowout against Apple Valley/Burnsville and they’ve scored an ugly nine goals in their past six games; grinding out games like this just appears to be who they are. (They are 4-2 in those contests.) They’ve got a three-game week featuring two teams from the lower half of the South Suburban and then a tough one with Maple Grove.

Moorhead (9-11-1)
-The good news: the Spuds had a reasonably good, 2-1 week, knocking off Class A powers East Grand Forks and Hermantown to improve the record a bit. The bad news: their one loss was to section rival Roseau, which may drop them in the seeding race and give the Rams some confidence they can break the Spuds’ stranglehold on 8AA. Next, they face a Fargo team and then continue their tour of the Class A top four when they visit Warroad.

Holy Family (13-5-1)
-The Fire handled decent Delano and Totino teams, but they could not keep pace with Shakopee’s outburst, and amid all the smoke around this Fire I do not have a ton of faith in this team right now. The week ahead is an interesting one to see if that doubt is justified, with three teams hovering not far behind them here all on the schedule in Park, Gentry, and Champlin Park.

White Bear Lake (14-5-1)
-The Bears’ losses to Eden Prairie and Centennial this week doesn’t change my take on them a whole lot, and just entrenches them in this neighborhood: competitive, capable of pulling out 4AA if enough goes right, but not one of the favorites in this four-team clump. They get one last shot at a quality nonconference win this week when they pay a visit to Rogers, and Park isn’t a free pass, either.

Gentry Academy (17-5)
-The Stars blitzed up-and-down Coon Rapids and took care of Providence, though hammering weaker teams has not really been the issue this season. Holy Family this week gives them one last chance at another top 25 win in the regular season.

Cretin-Derham Hall (12-7-1)
-The Raiders got shut out by Lakeville South but rebounded with a pair of decisive wins against some of the less stellar Suburban East teams, which is about par for the course this season for them. A second meeting with Stillwater will be the highlight of the coming week.

Elk River (11-9-1)
-With apologies to Champlin Park, who were in this spot a week ago and did nothing wrong, the Elks deserve to leap in here after a win over Andover that spiced up 8AA. (It doesn’t hurt that they handled the Rebels, 7-2.) They’ve got some bad losses, and the loss to Sartell this past week probably relegates them to the 4-seed in 8AA, but they’ve shown enough to be a genuinely interesting team going forward. We’ll see if they can do anything with Centennial this week.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Edina giving up 3 goals twice to a mid-teens team is not a good look this late in the season, that's got to be a concern for Gilles.

I continue to be intrigued by the field this season. You got 3 (maybe 4) teams at the top, then a significant drop off to 5 to 15, where there is not a lot of difference. OK, 5-10 is different than 11-15, but not as much as in most seasons.

Two years ago, Hill peaked in the last week of the regular season. They completely shut down a very good Maple Grove team 3-0. MG could bring the puck in the offensive zone, but couldn't do anything but pass around the perimeter. Then they handled Moorhead two days later. Unfortunately for us Pioneers, they were not as sharp two weeks later, when Andover and that same MG proved to be the class of the tournament, and put on a championship game for the ages.

And I think that is what to keep in mind for the next 5 weeks: That, barring some fluke goal or something crazy, the championship will be won by the team that is the hottest that weekend. Coaching matters, for sure, but some factors no one can control. The top 3 all have at least a fair amount of experience in how to coach a to and at state, Gilles has the edge there, and they will have some influence on getting their squad to peak at the right time. But I think it's really the unknown X factor that will determine who wins it all. It's setting up to be a very good tournament, and we'd all love to see a close final. But I'd not be surprised to see one team lockdown the other in a not all that close 4-1 game.

[WestMetro]

Agree that the field 5-25 has seemed to have much more balance and upset capability than expected back in Nov

(Would be interesting just to go thru 5-25 and list out the "quality wins " for each . .)

Another thing going on this year is the number of quality goalies beyond those names returning from last season . Let's start with Bauer , Bertram and Turek for the top 4 . Then how about Shak, STA, EP, GR just to name a few

Will be very interesting down the stretch . Seems as if there are upset candidates lurking in many section (ie Shakopee EP BSM and even New Prague ), and some sections have no clear slam dunk favorite ( 3,4, 5, 7,8 ). There are many goalies in the field that can steal a game or two

[WestMetro]

Just counting up . Due to good weather and also more importantly retirement , have managed to see 19 of the top 20 teams in person so far this season , and 22 of top 25 , plus a half dozen below 25 Could be personal all time record.
Will try to knock off a couple more before the 17th , and then will see Roseau at the X!

[inthetwine]

I think you may have Centennial rated a little high. White bear gave them a heckuva run yesterday, and pretty much dominated them on the ice, shots were two to one in favor of white bear, and if not for some questionable refereeing, the outcome probably would’ve been a different.

[grindiangrad-80]

It’s been fun watching Rapids throughout the year. They were decent to start the season and have been noticeably better as the calendar winds down. Clafton’s consistency to roll the majority of the roster seems to be paying off as time rolls on. They were outshot by quite a bit early on but have improved with offensive pressure substantially. They appear to be more physical than normal and are very solid defensively. Goaltending has been stellar no matter which of the 3 they put out there. While I don’t consider them the favorite I see them having a legitimate shot at getting to St. Paul. They should be a contender for the next couple of years as well.

[raidergrad72]

It’s been fun watching Rapids throughout the year. They were decent to start the season and have been noticeably better as the calendar winds down. Clafton’s consistency to roll the majority of the roster seems to be paying off as time rolls on. They were outshot by quite a bit early on but have improved with offensive pressure substantially. They appear to be more physical than normal and are very solid defensively. Goaltending has been stellar no matter which of the 3 they put out there. While I don’t consider them the favorite I see them having a legitimate shot at getting to St. Paul. They should be a contender for the next couple of years as well.

Thanks to the Rapids Radio YouTube channel I've seen a couple of games, made better once the buffer issue was fixed. Pretty impressive how they locked down Andover Fri. night not to mention the sweep last weekend.

[grindiangrad-80]

It’s been fun watching Rapids throughout the year. They were decent to start the season and have been noticeably better as the calendar winds down. Clafton’s consistency to roll the majority of the roster seems to be paying off as time rolls on. They were outshot by quite a bit early on but have improved with offensive pressure substantially. They appear to be more physical than normal and are very solid defensively. Goaltending has been stellar no matter which of the 3 they put out there. While I don’t consider them the favorite I see them having a legitimate shot at getting to St. Paul. They should be a contender for the next couple of years as well.

Thanks to the Rapids Radio YouTube channel I've seen a couple of games, made better once the buffer issue was fixed. Pretty impressive how they locked down Andover Fri. night not to mention the sweep last weekend.

That YouTube channel is really nice. I’m very appreciative of them doing that.

[raidergrad72]

It’s been fun watching Rapids throughout the year. They were decent to start the season and have been noticeably better as the calendar winds down. Clafton’s consistency to roll the majority of the roster seems to be paying off as time rolls on. They were outshot by quite a bit early on but have improved with offensive pressure substantially. They appear to be more physical than normal and are very solid defensively. Goaltending has been stellar no matter which of the 3 they put out there. While I don’t consider them the favorite I see them having a legitimate shot at getting to St. Paul. They should be a contender for the next couple of years as well.

Thanks to the Rapids Radio YouTube channel I've seen a couple of games, made better once the buffer issue was fixed. Pretty impressive how they locked down Andover Fri. night not to mention the sweep last weekend.

That YouTube channel is really nice. I’m very appreciative of them doing that.

You bet. Gives me something to watch/listen to since my boys 5 miles down 169 are in for some tough years.
But the girls team is pretty interesting to watch, too.