Which Ranking is Most Accurate?
Curious as to what the forum's thoughts are and interesting to debate/consider with ranking computer algorithms and also for comparison to the human LPH rankings:
LPH:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=21457
QRF:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=21710
KRACH:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=21598
Note:
*LPH (human voting panel) approx 7-12 coaches/media/interested parties vote each week.
*QRF (computer algorithm) has weighting associated with record (W/L/T) and opponents' records based on:
A) Class differential between the teams
B) Margin of victory (or defeat) with a cap on both ends
*KRACH (computer algorithm) is a more pure math model (relative to QRF) based only on record (W/L/T) and opponents' records (no weighting).
*At one time I believe there was also additional weight given in QRF for the most recent games however based on the site linked above I don't believe that is the case any longer. KRACH doesn't care (and hasn't ever) if you beat a team early or late - only cares that you beat them at some point.
Which Ranking is Most Accurate?
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
-
ghshockeyfan
- Posts: 6132
- Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2003 2:33 pm
- Location: Inver Grove Heights, MN
- Contact:
Which Ranking is Most Accurate?
Last edited by ghshockeyfan on Sun Dec 06, 2009 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
ghshockeyfan
- Posts: 6132
- Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2003 2:33 pm
- Location: Inver Grove Heights, MN
- Contact:
As of 12/3 these are the three rankings of teams:
LPH:
AA:
1. Roseville (10)
2. Stillwater
3. Edina (1)
4. Hopkins (1)
5. Minnetonka
6. Hill-Murray
7. Irondale
8. Elk River/Zimmerman
9. White Bear Lake
10. Benilde-St. Margaret's
11. Centennial
12. Roseau
13. Grand Rapids/Greenway (Coleraine)
14. Maple Grove
15. Proctor/Hermantown/Duluth Marshall
16. Cloquet/Esko/Carlton
17. Lakeville South
18. Farmington
19. Eden Prairie
20. Hastings
A:
1. Warroad (7)
2. Breck (2)
3. Blake (1)
4. South St. Paul
5. Mound Westonka
6. Crookston
7. East Grand Forks
8. Fergus Falls
9. Red Wing
10. Mankato West
11. Totino-Grace
12. Visitation/SPA
13. Mahtomedi
14. Eveleth-Gilbert
15. Silver Bay/Two Harbors/Cook County
16. Rogers
17. Faribault
18. Simley
19. Northfield
20. Orono
QRF:
AA:
1 Hill-Murray (2-1-0) 41.2
2 Minnetonka (3-1-1) 33.9
T-3 North Wright County (6-0-0) 32.1
T-3 Roseville (5-0-0) 32.1
5 Hopkins (3-1-0) 31.7
6 St. Cloud (5-1-0) 30.0
7 Farmington (5-0-0) 29.6
8 Elk River/Zimmerman (5-0-0) 28.3
9 Stillwater Area (5-1-0) 27.0
10 Eden Prairie (3-1-0) 26.8
11 Edina (5-1-0) 25.0
T-12 Eagan (2-3-1) 24.8
T-12 South Washington County (3-1-0) 24.8
14 White Bear Lake (4-2-0) 24.6
15 Roseau (4-1-0) 23.4
16 Buffalo (3-1-0) 23.1
17 Benilde-St. Margaret's (4-1-0) 22.9
18 Hastings (4-1-1) 22.7
19 Anoka (3-1-0) 22.6
20 Proctor/Hermantown/Duluth Marshall (4-1-0) 22.5
A:
1 Breck (4-1-0) 35.5
2 Mound-Westonka (6-0-0) 32.3
3 Mankato West (4-1-0) 30.7
4 Willmar (2-2-0) 29.4
5 East Grand Forks (3-1-0) 29.0
6 South St. Paul (6-0-0) 28.4
7 Rogers (3-2-1) 27.3
8 Faribault (4-2-0) 27.0
9 Warroad (3-0-1) 25.8
10 Totino-Grace (2-2-0) 24.6
11 Visitation/SPA (3-3-0) 23.0
12 New Prague (2-3-1) 22.6
13 Princeton (2-1-2) 21.0
14 Mahtomedi (3-1-0) 20.2
15 Orono (3-1-0) 19.6
16 Red Wing (2-3-0) 19.4
17 Blake (2-3-0) 18.2
18 Simley (4-2-0) 18.0
19 Northfield (2-2-1) 17.8
20 Crookston (5-2-0) 16.9
KRACH
AA:
RK TEAM (LPH Rank as of 12/03) RECORD RATING
1 North Wright County 6-0-0 281.151
2 Roseville (1) 5-0-0 199.475 2 1
3 Elk River/Zimmerman (8 ) 5-0-0 125.154 9 8
4 Edina (3) 5-1-0 103.333 4 3
5 Minnetonka (5) 3-1-1 93.094 5 5
6 Farmington (18 ) 5-0-0 92.753 18
7 Stillwater Area (2) 5-1-0 86.503 1 2
8 Hill-Murray (6) 2-1-0 85.113 7 6
9 St. Cloud 5-1-0 85.027
10 Hopkins (4) 3-1-0 66.819 3 4
11 Irondale (7) 6-0-0 62.787 6 7
12 Roseau (12) 4-1-0 46.642 11 12
13 Benilde-St. Margaret's (10) 4-1-0 44.729 13 10
14 White Bear Lake (9) 4-2-0 44.336 8 9
15 Hastings (20) 4-1-0 42.762 20
16 Buffalo 3-1-0 42.553
17 Eden Prairie (19) 3-1-0 37.579 20 19
18 Eastview 3-1-0 37.109
19 South Washington County 3-1-0 34.945
20 Park of Cottage Grove 4-1-1 32.892
A:
RK TEAM (LPH Rank as of 12/03) RECORD RATING
1 Mound-Westonka (5) 6-0-0 235.966 7 5
2 South St. Paul (4) 6-0-0 166.748 4 4
3 Breck (2) 4-1-0 94.709 3 2
4 Warroad (1) 3-0-1 78.021 1 1
5 Mankato West (10) 4-1-0 51.351 12 10
6 East Grand Forks (7) 3-1-0 45.007 9 7
7 Faribault (17) 4-2-0 28.226 17
8 Crookston (6) 5-2-0 24.189 6 6
9 Rogers (16) 3-2-1 23.864 16
10 Willmar 2-2-0 22.932
11 Totino-Grace (11) 2-2-0 20.688 11 11
12 Orono (20) 3-1-0 20.238 16 20
13 Mahtomedi (13) 3-1-0 16.614 14 13
14 Long Prairie-Grey Eagle/Wadena-Deer Creek 2-0-0 15.145
15 Visitation/SPA (12) 3-3-0 15.000 15 12
16 Luverne 2-0-1 14.782
17 Morris/Benson Area 5-1-0 14.541
18 Simley (18 ) 4-2-0 12.507 18
19 Red Wing (9) 2-3-0 12.152 5 9
20 Blake (3) 2-3-0 8.495
LPH:
AA:
1. Roseville (10)
2. Stillwater
3. Edina (1)
4. Hopkins (1)
5. Minnetonka
6. Hill-Murray
7. Irondale
8. Elk River/Zimmerman
9. White Bear Lake
10. Benilde-St. Margaret's
11. Centennial
12. Roseau
13. Grand Rapids/Greenway (Coleraine)
14. Maple Grove
15. Proctor/Hermantown/Duluth Marshall
16. Cloquet/Esko/Carlton
17. Lakeville South
18. Farmington
19. Eden Prairie
20. Hastings
A:
1. Warroad (7)
2. Breck (2)
3. Blake (1)
4. South St. Paul
5. Mound Westonka
6. Crookston
7. East Grand Forks
8. Fergus Falls
9. Red Wing
10. Mankato West
11. Totino-Grace
12. Visitation/SPA
13. Mahtomedi
14. Eveleth-Gilbert
15. Silver Bay/Two Harbors/Cook County
16. Rogers
17. Faribault
18. Simley
19. Northfield
20. Orono
QRF:
AA:
1 Hill-Murray (2-1-0) 41.2
2 Minnetonka (3-1-1) 33.9
T-3 North Wright County (6-0-0) 32.1
T-3 Roseville (5-0-0) 32.1
5 Hopkins (3-1-0) 31.7
6 St. Cloud (5-1-0) 30.0
7 Farmington (5-0-0) 29.6
8 Elk River/Zimmerman (5-0-0) 28.3
9 Stillwater Area (5-1-0) 27.0
10 Eden Prairie (3-1-0) 26.8
11 Edina (5-1-0) 25.0
T-12 Eagan (2-3-1) 24.8
T-12 South Washington County (3-1-0) 24.8
14 White Bear Lake (4-2-0) 24.6
15 Roseau (4-1-0) 23.4
16 Buffalo (3-1-0) 23.1
17 Benilde-St. Margaret's (4-1-0) 22.9
18 Hastings (4-1-1) 22.7
19 Anoka (3-1-0) 22.6
20 Proctor/Hermantown/Duluth Marshall (4-1-0) 22.5
A:
1 Breck (4-1-0) 35.5
2 Mound-Westonka (6-0-0) 32.3
3 Mankato West (4-1-0) 30.7
4 Willmar (2-2-0) 29.4
5 East Grand Forks (3-1-0) 29.0
6 South St. Paul (6-0-0) 28.4
7 Rogers (3-2-1) 27.3
8 Faribault (4-2-0) 27.0
9 Warroad (3-0-1) 25.8
10 Totino-Grace (2-2-0) 24.6
11 Visitation/SPA (3-3-0) 23.0
12 New Prague (2-3-1) 22.6
13 Princeton (2-1-2) 21.0
14 Mahtomedi (3-1-0) 20.2
15 Orono (3-1-0) 19.6
16 Red Wing (2-3-0) 19.4
17 Blake (2-3-0) 18.2
18 Simley (4-2-0) 18.0
19 Northfield (2-2-1) 17.8
20 Crookston (5-2-0) 16.9
KRACH
AA:
RK TEAM (LPH Rank as of 12/03) RECORD RATING
1 North Wright County 6-0-0 281.151
2 Roseville (1) 5-0-0 199.475 2 1
3 Elk River/Zimmerman (8 ) 5-0-0 125.154 9 8
4 Edina (3) 5-1-0 103.333 4 3
5 Minnetonka (5) 3-1-1 93.094 5 5
6 Farmington (18 ) 5-0-0 92.753 18
7 Stillwater Area (2) 5-1-0 86.503 1 2
8 Hill-Murray (6) 2-1-0 85.113 7 6
9 St. Cloud 5-1-0 85.027
10 Hopkins (4) 3-1-0 66.819 3 4
11 Irondale (7) 6-0-0 62.787 6 7
12 Roseau (12) 4-1-0 46.642 11 12
13 Benilde-St. Margaret's (10) 4-1-0 44.729 13 10
14 White Bear Lake (9) 4-2-0 44.336 8 9
15 Hastings (20) 4-1-0 42.762 20
16 Buffalo 3-1-0 42.553
17 Eden Prairie (19) 3-1-0 37.579 20 19
18 Eastview 3-1-0 37.109
19 South Washington County 3-1-0 34.945
20 Park of Cottage Grove 4-1-1 32.892
A:
RK TEAM (LPH Rank as of 12/03) RECORD RATING
1 Mound-Westonka (5) 6-0-0 235.966 7 5
2 South St. Paul (4) 6-0-0 166.748 4 4
3 Breck (2) 4-1-0 94.709 3 2
4 Warroad (1) 3-0-1 78.021 1 1
5 Mankato West (10) 4-1-0 51.351 12 10
6 East Grand Forks (7) 3-1-0 45.007 9 7
7 Faribault (17) 4-2-0 28.226 17
8 Crookston (6) 5-2-0 24.189 6 6
9 Rogers (16) 3-2-1 23.864 16
10 Willmar 2-2-0 22.932
11 Totino-Grace (11) 2-2-0 20.688 11 11
12 Orono (20) 3-1-0 20.238 16 20
13 Mahtomedi (13) 3-1-0 16.614 14 13
14 Long Prairie-Grey Eagle/Wadena-Deer Creek 2-0-0 15.145
15 Visitation/SPA (12) 3-3-0 15.000 15 12
16 Luverne 2-0-1 14.782
17 Morris/Benson Area 5-1-0 14.541
18 Simley (18 ) 4-2-0 12.507 18
19 Red Wing (9) 2-3-0 12.152 5 9
20 Blake (3) 2-3-0 8.495
Re: Which Ranking is Most Accurate?
I think they all have positives and minuses.
In general I like the math and I am suspicious of subjectivity. I guess I tend to like the KRACH system better than QRF because I don't like using margin of victory as a weighting factor or Class because we all know there are 3 or 4 teams that are as good or better than many Class AA teams.
Subjective ranking might be more accurate early if you have knowledgeable and objective persons doing the ranking. The problem with the subjective system is that most persons doing the ranking do not see all of the teams and rank based on reputations of the teams they don't see. I used to rank teams at the youth level and it is very hard especially in ranking teams from a different region of the state.
I think the mathematical formulas will be more accurate once they get a sufficient number of games into the system. For now KRACH and QRF have some anomalies and I'm confident that teams will drop and rise significantly before the end of the year.
In general I like the math and I am suspicious of subjectivity. I guess I tend to like the KRACH system better than QRF because I don't like using margin of victory as a weighting factor or Class because we all know there are 3 or 4 teams that are as good or better than many Class AA teams.
Subjective ranking might be more accurate early if you have knowledgeable and objective persons doing the ranking. The problem with the subjective system is that most persons doing the ranking do not see all of the teams and rank based on reputations of the teams they don't see. I used to rank teams at the youth level and it is very hard especially in ranking teams from a different region of the state.
I think the mathematical formulas will be more accurate once they get a sufficient number of games into the system. For now KRACH and QRF have some anomalies and I'm confident that teams will drop and rise significantly before the end of the year.
-
northfan49
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 8:10 pm
-
ghshockeyfan
- Posts: 6132
- Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2003 2:33 pm
- Location: Inver Grove Heights, MN
- Contact:
I think these games are the input needed to make any rankings more accurate. The question may be if one of the three rankings above did a better job of predicting what transpired this weekend. LPH & KRACH ranked Roseau #12 & QRF had them at #15. All three ranked HM & Edina higher than this.northfan49 wrote:Don't know about your rankings--saw Roseau beat both Edina and Hill this weekend--three good teams but the Rams are young and really move the puck well.
And I do agree with the posts above that the more scores/data the better for both human (LPH) but especially computer (QRF & KRACH) rankings.