Looking Ahead to 2012-2013

[karl(east)]

Karl, now that we're getting close to the season and probably most of the roster movement is done in terms of players deciding to stay, transfer, or move on the another league, what would your top 20 look like right now?

With school about to start and this post appearing on another thread, I figured we can get this conversation going. Instead of ranking everyone 1-20 (we'll save that for November), I've divided some of the top teams into tiers:

Tier 1 (Sure state title contenders)
Benilde
Edina
Eden Prairie
Tier 2 (Strong teams that lack either the depth or top-end talent of the above)
Minnetonka
Andover
Duluth East
Grand Rapids
Blaine
Hill-Murray
Burnsville
Tier 3 (A solid core, but still some serious questions)
Eagan
Cloquet
Elk River
Moorhead
Prior Lake
Maple Grove
Wayzata
Roseau
Holy Family
Tier 4 (Teams with a solid shot at the top 20)
Bloomington Jefferson
Holy Angels
White Bear Lake
Lakeville North
Lakeville South
Mounds View
Stillwater

Last year's section races were fairly predictable outside of Section 6, but there should be some great ones this year in 6 and 7, maybe 2; 1 and 8 have two pretty good teams fighting for the top spot, and Eagan and Hill are not as far ahead of the field in sections 3 and 4 as they were last year.

Feel free to disagree and make your case, or say where you think teams belong in each tier--nothing will be set until mid-November, and I'm willing to be convinced.

[almostashappy]

With school about to start and this post appearing on another thread, I figured we can get this conversation going. Instead of ranking everyone 1-20 (we'll save that for November), I've divided some of the top teams into tiers:

Tier 1 (Sure state title contenders)
Benilde
Edina
Eden Prairie
Tier 2 (Strong teams that lack either the depth or top-end talent of the above)
Minnetonka
Andover
Duluth East
Grand Rapids
Blaine
Hill-Murray
Burnsville

Just curious....can Hill-Murray without Heinrich and Guentzel still be considered a "strong team"? They had a good JV roster last year (when don't they?), but I'd think they'd be more in the "some serious questions" group at this point.

[slacsap]

I think karl has things just about right (as usual). With Guentzel and Heinrich, Hill would have been right in the mix with Benilde, Eidna and EP. Even without those two, it will still be a very solid top 10 team with seven returning forwards, four returning defensemen (plus two who were injured all of last year) and a proven goaltender. Throw in a handful of players from a very talented JV team suce as Mills and French and you have a very talented team, plus the fact that Coach Lechner always has his team peaking in March.

[cigar]

edina without walker, hurley and nanne will hurt. i couldn't put them that high even with some good bantams coming in....

[TheHockeyDJ]

I like the placement of the 7AA teams, though I thought Andover would be placed in the group below. Other than Chase Perry returning, I thought the key pieces had graduated. Cloquet will have a ridiculous first line, and I believe their goaltending will be solid, so if the rest of their team buys into Esse's system they can be really good this year. Duluth East looks like the type of team that won't cruise through the season like they did last year, but I'm sure there's more than enough talent for Randolph to work with. I'm pretty excited for Rapids, but Hunter Sheperd needs to improve on his sophomore season which was decent and I anticipate he'll be on of the best goalies in the state. Rapids will be just fine at defense with two elite leaguers and Mr. Hockey candidate Jake Bischoff. Cody Mann, Avery Peterson, and Reid Holum will give them a good scoring punch and a lot of size on the top line, but I do wonder what the forward depth will look like. Elk River has a lot of talent coming back and an interesting story line to follow with them of course is the new coach with NHL experience and how much of an impact he will have.

For 7AA I think when we hit the playoffs it will look like this:
1. Duluth East - They get enough to be top seed every year
2. Grand Rapids - G-Sheperd, D-Bischoff, F-Peterson might be best in 7AA at their positions
3. Cloquet - Karson Kuhlman and the Michauds will provide enough scoring
4. Elk River - They'll be on CEC and GR's heels all year for the 2/3 seeds
5. Andover - There will be too much of a load on Chase Perry this year

[hshockeyfan8]

edina without walker, hurley and nanne will hurt. i couldn't put them that high even with some good bantams coming in....

Last I heard Hurley is staying?

[RogerDodger]

I've divided some of the top teams into tiers:

Tier 1 (Sure state title contenders)
Benilde
Edina
Eden Prairie
Tier 2 (Strong teams that lack either the depth or top-end talent of the above)
Minnetonka
Andover
Duluth East
Grand Rapids
Blaine
Hill-Murray
Burnsville

Andover and Blaine in your 2nd tier?!? Pu-lease !

[karl(east)]

I like the placement of the 7AA teams, though I thought Andover would be placed in the group below. Other than Chase Perry returning, I thought the key pieces had graduated. Cloquet will have a ridiculous first line, and I believe their goaltending will be solid, so if the rest of their team buys into Esse's system they can be really good this year. Duluth East looks like the type of team that won't cruise through the season like they did last year, but I'm sure there's more than enough talent for Randolph to work with. I'm pretty excited for Rapids, but Hunter Sheperd needs to improve on his sophomore season which was decent and I anticipate he'll be on of the best goalies in the state. Rapids will be just fine at defense with two elite leaguers and Mr. Hockey candidate Jake Bischoff. Cody Mann, Avery Peterson, and Reid Holum will give them a good scoring punch and a lot of size on the top line, but I do wonder what the forward depth will look like. Elk River has a lot of talent coming back and an interesting story line to follow with them of course is the new coach with NHL experience and how much of an impact he will have.

For 7AA I think when we hit the playoffs it will look like this:
1. Duluth East - They get enough to be top seed every year
2. Grand Rapids - G-Sheperd, D-Bischoff, F-Peterson might be best in 7AA at their positions
3. Cloquet - Karson Kuhlman and the Michauds will provide enough scoring
4. Elk River - They'll be on CEC and GR's heels all year for the 2/3 seeds
5. Andover - There will be too much of a load on Chase Perry this year

Andover returns practically all their skaters. The top-end talent isn't the same as the other teams in that group, but they are very, very deep. Did their top Bantams end up at Andover, or did they leave for private schools?

Otherwise, I agree with your 7AA ordering for now. I think Rapids and East are actually very similar teams in terms of their makeup for the coming season, with perhaps a slight nod to East for their experience.

I'm not quite sure what I'm doing with Blaine yet--they have a ton of returning forwards, but defense was an issue last year even with Brodzinski. 5AA looks way down this coming season.

[Slap Shot]

iirc some of Tonka's best teams were not preceded by great bantam results and they return a healthy dose of talent/experience. Of course losing Lettieri hurts.

[Wallyworld]

I agree with the individual who commented on Hill being a big question mark. On offense, they return two guys from their first line and a guy from the third line who scored in two regular season games last year. Other than that it's basically 4th liner's and JV kids moving up. It would have been really interesting to see the Guentzel, Lavalle, Brown line after another year together but as you know, Guentzel jumped ship. The good news is that I was at Lechner's camp this summer and was expecting to see Lavalle really stand out but Willie Brown looked like a bigger, stronger version of Guentzel and was in a class by himself in the scrimmages that I saw (and that's with Charlie Sampair skating with them as well)... So they'll have a great first line and good goaltending.. As far as the younger Hill kids at the camp, as well as the D position, I didn't see much to erase the question marks. Thank God for Hill fans that Dugas is coming back because he will keep them in a lot of games. Of course Lechner always seems to get his team rolling and playing together by year end so they are still probably the section favorite over WBL and Stillwater etc but during the year

I would say that Hill is in the 15-20 range. You'll see this drop off fairly early as they always play a killer non-conference schedule and have Benilde Eagan, Burnsville & Lakeville S in their first four games. I would be shocked if they were seriously competitive with Benilde and a little less so for Burnsville, LV and Eagan.... Tough year but I heard the JV was like 24-1 so they have the talent to rebuild with........

[Hscout000]

I'm not quite sure what I'm doing with Blaine yet--they have a ton of returning forwards, but defense was an issue last year even with Brodzinski.

Brodzinski didn't even know the word defense, only played for himself and offense. Losing him only helps Blaine defensively

[HappyHockeyFan]

I think Eagan is placed correctly but they have a sneaky talented team and still are the cream of their section...could make it 3 years in row to State.

[Simpleton]

Don't see any other 3AA teams on the list, so who - if anyone - is actually a threat to Eagan?

[Tuuk2score]

Cigar are you kidding !!!!!! Hornets are so deep !!!!! they won't need any help!!!!

[almostashappy]

Don't see any other 3AA teams on the list, so who - if anyone - is actually a threat to Eagan?

Might be a stretch to classify them as a serious threat, but East Ridge might surprise some folks this year. Anyone have an opinion on CDH?

[karl(east)]

I appreciate the Hill discussion. My logic for keeping them in the top 10 was that the team actually looks fairly similar to last year's--two top forwards, some decent but unproven depth beyond that (Sampair did not have a huge junior season). The defense doesn't have a star like Heinrich, but it might be a bit deeper, and Dugas has another year of experience under his belt.

The Pioneers also raise the question of whether the preseason rankings should have them where they'll be in late November (probably a bit raw), or where they'll be in late February (in the hunt, if history is any guide).

As for 3AA, I looked at practically every team in the section beyond Eagan in search of a #2, and it really is a free-for-all. East Ridge returns a lot, but none of those players really stood out last year, while Park and Hastings also return much more than they lose. CDH doesn't return a whole lot; does anyone know if they have any good players coming in? Eastview isn't awful, and with a new coach and a strong incoming bantam class, even Rosemount might be in a position to make some noise. It could be a very entertaining section, though Eagan is the pretty clear preseason #1.

[Wallyworld]

Unknown unknowns & The Strong Get Stronger W/ Longer Power Plays

Good point about Sampair and Hill's 11-12 preseason looking similar to this one, Karl. Last year I saw their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers returning (as Jr's) along with Sampair who had an off Jr year despite lettering since 8th grade. Plus they had an unproven Goalie and 1 returning D.. It certainly didn't look like Sampair was going to be a Mr Hockey finalist after only putting up 6 goals his Junior year - (though he had a self-admitted attitude problem). That's what makes it interesting, you just never know. Same with Brown coming in as a sophomore and toiling away on the third line early on, only to work his way up to first line with Lavalle and Guentzel while also replacing (Sr) Faust on the power play and racking up 17G in the regular season. So from those two returning top scorers I was focusing on in the preseason, by the end you have two really strong lines, great goaltending, a pretty good defense (2 all-tourney D's) & a state runner-up trophy... Also speaks to your point about preseason rankings having much use to begin with.... I just question whether Hill will strike gold two years in a row with respect to the unknowns.. ..You mentioned Eagan and there is another great example of pleasant surprises. When Glienke goes from 4 goals as a Soph. to 20 last year...

One thing that I think is going to change the entire dynamic of team success is the longer penalty times. Since the first liners usually handle power play duties, it makes teams with star power that much more dangerous than balanced teams. Like last year with Hill, when they got 4-5minute power plays at the end of the year you have Guentzel, Lavalle, Brown, Sampair & Heinrich blasting away for extended periods of time. Same with Benilde with Besse and his group. It just makes the strong that much stronger....... Think teams will be working on their odd man situations a lot more in practice?

[blueliner5]

I'm not quite sure what I'm doing with Blaine yet--they have a ton of returning forwards, but defense was an issue last year even with Brodzinski.

Brodzinski didn't even know the word defense, only played for himself and offense. Losing him only helps Blaine defensively

MrBoDangle....You mean to tell me you are going to let this comment slip thru the cracks? Does this mean Hscout000 has something against Blaine? No, he is just stating his opinion! Nothing wrong with that. I have talked to some Blaine parents this Summer and they said exactly the samething. Should be a better rounded Defense as the power play, even strength, short handed situations will not be built around 1 individual

[Doc Holliday]

edina without walker, hurley and nanne will hurt. i couldn't put them that high even with some good bantams coming in....

After reading lots of posts on this board, I'm surprised people don't think Edina will be better with Nanne leaving.

[Vapor]

I think Eagan is placed correctly but they have a sneaky talented team and still are the cream of their section...could make it 3 years in row to State.

I agree . Eagan will remain the team to beat in 3AA.

[karl(east)]

Unknown unknowns & The Strong Get Stronger W/ Longer Power Plays

Good point about Sampair and Hill's 11-12 preseason looking similar to this one, Karl. Last year I saw their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers returning (as Jr's) along with Sampair who had an off Jr year despite lettering since 8th grade. Plus they had an unproven Goalie and 1 returning D.. It certainly didn't look like Sampair was going to be a Mr Hockey finalist after only putting up 6 goals his Junior year - (though he had a self-admitted attitude problem). That's what makes it interesting, you just never know. Same with Brown coming in as a sophomore and toiling away on the third line early on, only to work his way up to first line with Lavalle and Guentzel while also replacing (Sr) Faust on the power play and racking up 17G in the regular season. So from those two returning top scorers I was focusing on in the preseason, by the end you have two really strong lines, great goaltending, a pretty good defense (2 all-tourney D's) & a state runner-up trophy... Also speaks to your point about preseason rankings having much use to begin with.... I just question whether Hill will strike gold two years in a row with respect to the unknowns.. ..You mentioned Eagan and there is another great example of pleasant surprises. When Glienke goes from 4 goals as a Soph. to 20 last year...

Good point about the unknowns. This will be my fifth season doing weekly rankings on this forum, and I think I've gotten reasonably good at knowing what to look at in terms of returning talent, and also adjusting for strong incoming bantam classes. The things I still really can't "see" are those players who spend a year or two on JV or putting up pedestrian varsity numbers, then explode as juniors or seniors. I'd probably have to watch preseason practices or scrimmages for every team to get a feel for that.

One thing that I think is going to change the entire dynamic of team success is the longer penalty times. Since the first liners usually handle power play duties, it makes teams with star power that much more dangerous than balanced teams. Like last year with Hill, when they got 4-5minute power plays at the end of the year you have Guentzel, Lavalle, Brown, Sampair & Heinrich blasting away for extended periods of time. Same with Benilde with Besse and his group. It just makes the strong that much stronger....... Think teams will be working on their odd man situations a lot more in practice?

This sounds plausible, though we'll see how it works out over the course of the season. A lot depends on how strongly the new penalty times are enforced. They certainly swung a few regular season games last year, though I'm struggling to remember any big playoff games that turned on major penalties. In the end, I don't think they changed much last year, though that certainly could change. (A few people tried to argue the rule change hurt Duluth East, though I think there are many other better reasons that explain the South loss.)

[blueblood]

How about Blaine vs. Maple Grove for the 5AA title.

Brodzinski gets the gate on the first shift (0:19) of the game and the Crimson light them up for 4 PPG's while he is in the box on their way to a 15-1 rout.

[BBgunner]

Brodzinski is gone. This is a topic for this coming season. And Karl you are spot on with 5AA being down this year. Centennial, Blaine, and MG are young and unproven. The Conference Champ should be Elk River and I believe this is the year they can give East a run for the money.

[almostashappy]

Brodzinski is gone. This is a topic for this coming season.

That wasn't a rehash...it was a response to Karl's musings over whether the changes in penalty times last year had a major impact on a big game. That Section Championship game was the first example that came to my mind as well.

And if I remember correctly, Maple Grove had a pretty darn good Bantam A team from this year's class. Have they lost guys off of that team?

[BBgunner]

MG did have a strong team however that would still keep them young. Blaine is mainly Juniors this year with a few Sophs that can help. Centennial is pretty much the same. Elk River has the returning Goaltender that makes the big difference and a pretty nice group of Soph's coming in.