AA Rankings for 12/15/13

[karl(east)]

We’re halfway through December, which means the Edina Holiday Classic is right around the corner and most teams have played a few important games. Before long, the preseason predictions will be out the window, and the teams will be judged strictly on what they’ve done to date. Your rankings:

1. Hill-Murray (5-0)
-The Pioneers squeaked out a narrow win over St. Thomas Academy, and their overtime win over Mahtomedi was a bit more exciting than Coach Lechner and Company would have hoped for. The Mahtomedi game underscores just how wide open Class AA is this season, and shows that now team is safe. Still, they’re undefeated against a tough opening schedule, and they’ve earned their keep at the top for now. They have something of a respite this week before gearing up for the Schwan Cup, as they face the directional St. Paul schools.
This week: Thurs vs. South St. Paul, Sat at North St. Paul

2. Elk River (5-0)
-It was a big week for the Elks, as they took down Duluth East in Duluth and also handled a good Maple Grove team. They head into the Edina Holiday Classic in the unusual position of being the favorite; with perhaps its strongest field ever, the winner could have a very good argument for #1. And no matter what happens in the other two games, a win over Grand Rapids would put the Elks in commanding position for the top seed in 7AA.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. #3 Eden Prairie, Fri vs. #4 Edina, Sat vs. Grand Rapids

3. Eden Prairie (5-0)
-The Eagles had a very strong week, handling decent Jefferson and Cretin teams without any great difficulty. They’re getting goals from a few different places, which is a clear improvement on last year, when there wasn’t much scoring depth here. Up next is the Edina tournament, where the Eagles will take their first cracks at other top teams.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. #2 Elk River, Fri vs. Grand Rapids, Sat vs. #4 Edina

4. Edina (4-2)
-The Hornets had the week off, and bump up two spots with Blaine and Benilde losing. It’s unusual to find them ranked third of the four teams in their Holiday Classic, but the gap is pretty much nonexistent, and they have a history of doing very well in this little round-robin.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. Grand Rapids, Fri vs. #2 Elk River, Sat vs. #3 Eden Prairie

5. Blaine (6-1)
-After struggling to breach the East Grand Forks defense, the Bengals tumble a few spots in the rankings; despite the hype they’ve had in some places, their best win to date was against a team that lands around #20 in the rankings. There’s plenty of depth and talent here, but they still have some proving to do. That will have to wait until their holiday tournament in St. Louis Park, as their lone game this week is against Robbinsdale Armstrong.
This week: Thurs vs. Armstrong

6. St. Thomas Academy (3-1-1)
-The Cadets gave Hill a very good run, which is enough to nudge them up a little bit here. They don’t seem to have the depth of the teams above them, but they can certainly play with anyone in the state. Like Blaine, they have a light week before heading into Schwan Cup action after Christmas.
This week: Sat at Tartan

7. Duluth East (3-1)
-All four of East’s games this season have ended in 3-2 scores; that’s a good sign against top teams like Wayzata and Elk River, but the narrow wins over Cambridge and Cloquet raise some real red flags. Still, it’s hard to justify a major drop when they have a quality win and a single loss against the second-ranked team, especially when the teams behind them have been inconsistent or remain unproven. They moonlight as a Northwest Suburban team this week, taking on three teams from the middle tier of the conference; an undefeated week would shake off some of those upset worries, while losses will drive them from the top ten.
This week: Tues vs. Centennial, Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat vs. Andover

8. Prior Lake (3-1)
-The Lakers needed overtime to slip by winless Rosemount, but they also handled a decent Lakeville South team, and as with East, I won’t drop them when things are going more or less according to plan so far. We’ll have a much better idea of how legitimate this ranking is after this coming week, as they face fellow South Suburban contenders Burnsville and Eagan.
This week: Tues vs. #14 Eagan, Sat at #9 Burnsville

9. Burnsville (4-3)
-This next part of the rankings is a mess, so we’ll reward the hot hand; after a 1-3 start, the Blaze have won three straight, all against teams in the top 20. They beat Eastview convincingly before outlasting a stingy Eagan team this past week, and now continue with South Suburban play. Their meeting with Prior Lake looms large, and kicks off a brutal five-game stretch that includes the Schwan Cup and an early January date with Edina.
This week: Tues vs. Apple Valley, Sat vs. #8 Prior Lake

10. Wayzata (4-3)
-The Trojans, idle this past week, may have three losses, but they’re all to teams ahead of them, and there are a couple of quality wins mixed in there as well. They get back into action with a pair of home games against respectable opponents, including a Maple Grove team they edged in overtime in their season opener.
This week: Tues vs. Stillwater, Sat vs. #15 Maple Grove

11. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (5-2)
-The Red Knights were whipped by Holy Family, giving up 7 goals for a second consecutive game. This team has given up 23 goals in four games against AA opponents. I don’t care how good a team’s offense is; no one is going to go far in the playoffs with that sort of defense. The coming week is an important one, as they face three reasonably deep teams on their home ice. We’ll see if they can show any signs of improvement.
This week: Tues vs. #15 Maple Grove, Fri vs. Moorhead, Sat vs. Duluth Marshall

12. Holy Family (4-2-1)
-The Fire scored arguably the biggest win in program history on Thursday, as they stunned Benilde with a big offensive outburst. The victory proves they’re a real contender in 6AA, and Breck’s hot start means that their tie with the Mustangs was a pretty good showing, too. With a win over Minnetonka on Saturday, they could just about lock up a first round home game in sections.
This week: Tues at Mound-Westonka, Sat vs. Minnetonka

13. White Bear Lake (5-0-1)
-A tie with Forest Lake proves the Bears won’t be able to simply coast through the Suburban East, but they remain undefeated and are likely to stay that way through the rest of the month. A road game against Stillwater this week is probably the most dangerous of those four remaining December games.
This week: Tues vs. Hopkins, Thurs at Stillwater, Sat vs. Park

14. Eagan (4-2)
-The Wildcats lost a tight game to Burnsville; going into a defensive shell worked against Edina, but it’s a very narrow tightrope to walk night in and night out, and they didn’t generate much offense against the Blaze. Regardless, they’ll be tough for any opponent to crack. An important conference game with Prior Lake awaits them on Tuesday.
This week: Tues at #8 Prior Lake, Sat at Bloomington Kennedy

15. Maple Grove (4-2)
-Nothing too terribly surprising for the Crimson this past week, as they lost to Elk River and handled Champlin Park. As happens sometimes in these rankings, someone has to slide back a few spots through no real fault of their own, and the Crimson are the victims this week. A good showing during a very difficult week ahead could easily have them moving right back up. Two road games against 6AA contenders and a section battle with Centennial loom.
This week: Tues at #11 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Thurs vs. Centennial, Sat at #10 Wayzata

In a rare occurrence, we have a pretty clear cutoff between the teams in the top 15 and those on the bubble. The next ten:

Grand Rapids (4-1)
-The Thunderhawks fell to Duluth Marshall, a setback that makes them clear underdogs heading into the Edina tournament. Any positive result would boost their ranking, though, so they don’t have anything to lose. They also play Virginia on Tuesday, so this busy week should be a good test of one this team’s biggest question marks: its depth.

Eastview (4-1)
-The Lightning were humbled by Burnsville in their first game against a top 15 team, dropping them from the rankings for the time being. This week’s game with Jefferson will be important for positioning in this part of the rankings.

Cretin-Derham Hall (4-1-1)
-A shutout of Stillwater gave the Raiders a nice SEC win, but they couldn’t really keep up with Eden Prairie. They’ll be favored in both their games this week, which are at home against Woodbury and Mounds View.

Centennial (2-2)
-Picked up a win over a decent Andover team, and those two losses are both to teams in the top four. The weak ahead should shed a little more light on the Cougars, as they play at Duluth East, at home against Moorhead, and visit Maple Grove in an important section game.

Forest Lake (3-1-3)
-The Rangers earned some respect with a tie against White Bear Lake on Thursday, but they also tied Roseville, which holds them back from making a larger jump. At the very least, they’ve proven they can be competitive with anyone, but they will need to eventually turn some of these ties into wins. Two more conference games await this week, plus a road trip up to Cloquet with 7AA implications.

Lakeville North (4-3)
-While not exactly consistent, the Panthers do have a couple of big wins to their credit, the latest being a 4-2 victory over Bloomington Jefferson. They host Lakeville South this week in the first game of the key 1AA home-and-home series.

Roseau (3-3)
-The Rams made a statement with a 3-0 win over Moorhead, their first victory over the Spuds in three years. The Thief River Falls loss drags them down some, but they’ve been alright since, and their schedule gives them a chance to go on a run into January. Their sole game this week is against a North Dakota team.

Moorhead (4-2)
-The Spuds had an up-and-down week, losing a key section battle to Roseau but bouncing back to stun Minnetonka. They have a busy week ahead of them, with a Friday/Saturday series in the Metro featuring Centennial and Benilde; they can’t sleep on Alexandria on Tuesday, either.

Bloomington Jefferson (4-2)
-The Jaguars hit a wall after a 4-0 start; they kept their game with Eden Prairie reasonably close, but the loss to Lakeville North drops them in the rankings. A battle with Eastview looms this week.

Minnetonka (3-3)
-The Skippers have hit the skids of late, losing three in a row; all were too good teams, but Moorhead and Jefferson are hardly great, so they settle in at the back of the pack here. They’re on the road this week, visiting Armstrong before an important section game with Holy Family.

Thanks for reading, and let me know what you think.

[alcloseshaver]

Great job Karl, Love the Sunday morning read.
EP has had had ER's number the last few years, I'm sure Snuggerrud will log Suter like minutes against ER's top line and Edina will seek revenge for the loss to the Elks. The bottom line for ER is to be ready for Rapids and Forest Lake on the 28th in 7AA games. The last three games of the year are what we all remember.

[mnmouth]

If Elk River is rated #2 in your rankings this week, then this has to be the weakest group of top 10 teams in years.

[GoldenBear]

Thanks Karl! Yes nice Sunday morning read. The EGF win against Blaine didn't surprise me as this group of kids wee always competitive in peewee and a bantam state tournies. Can't help but wonder what EGF and breck kids and families will be thinking come march...... Could we have won Games in front of 18k at the X? Regardless. Looks like both state tournies will have good teams. Have a great day. GBear

[alcloseshaver]

ER at #2 is just a by-product of a good start to the season by the Elks. Any number of teams could lay claim to the spot. I see a wide open race to State with any of the top 6 or so teams having a shot at the title.

[SPUDNUT]

ER at #2 is just a by-product of a good start to the season by the Elks. Any number of teams could lay claim to the spot. I see a wide open race to State with any of the top 6 or so teams having a shot at the title.

Seems to me when March shows up, 8 teams (in both classes) have a "shot at the title".

[Clarkkent]

As always great job. Wondering tho why if HF "whipped" Benilde why would you have Benilde ranked one higher than HF?

[alcloseshaver]

Spud, Were talking realistic shot at title, we all know how many teams qualify for the state tournament.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Why is Duluth East in top 10? I watched them against the Elks and quite honestly they are fortunate to have lost by a one goal margin. That East team is the leanest East team I can recall. Assume Wayzata is the quality win? At 4 and 3 the luster of that victory is fading fast. East could barely get by a completely gutted Cloquet team. I would put that team right with Rapids for the time being they do not deserve the inflated rank. Other than that Karl you ranks are the best and well thought out. Honestly thought you are wearing the rose colored glasses with this East team.

[sterfry9]

I watched them against the Elks and quite honestly they are fortunate to have lost by a one goal margin.

well in DE defense they could have "easily" won that game to

[Slammer]

I watched them against the Elks and quite honestly they are fortunate to have lost by a one goal margin.

well in DE defense they could have "easily" won that game to

*insert beating a dead horse emoticon*

[TheHockeyDJ]

I agree with Northwoods, normally I agree with your ranking Karl, but you way overrate East and way underrate Rapids in this one. Bemidji, Forest Lake, and at Roseau/Warroad are all hard fought wins and I think most know Marshall is an AA team playing A. Rapids has a lot of upside too with all their youth and guys like Alex Adams are playing like legit top line guys as sophomores. Rapids and East should be around 9-12 in your rankings.

[Slammer]

I agree with Northwoods, normally I agree with your ranking Karl, but you way overrate East and way underrate Rapids in this one. Bemidji, Forest Lake, and at Roseau/Warroad are all hard fought wins and I think most know Marshall is an AA team playing A. Rapids has a lot of upside too with all their youth and guys like Alex Adams are playing like legit top line guys as sophomores. Rapids and East should be around 9-12 in your rankings.

Please explain how Marshall is an AA team playing A......

Anyways, Karl, your rankings are about spot on. East in my opinion is too high, but they haven't done much wrong so there's no reason to drop them from last weeks ranking.

GR losing to Marshall (which was ranked number 12 in A) is obviously going to push them back in the rankings. No reason to have them in the top 15 until they beat a top team like East did.

[sterfry9]

interesting views on where the DE squad should be his week. I myself think they're probably in the 2nd tier of the top teams where karl has them. think you could make an arguement for anywhere in the 7-12 range. their only loss is to a top team, so its not all that out the realm for them to be at 7 compared to the other teams they are ranked around imo.

[green4]

Great read Karl!
The only thing I would have switched, which I saw above, would be to put HF at 11 and BSM at 12.

[TheHockeyDJ]

I agree with Northwoods, normally I agree with your ranking Karl, but you way overrate East and way underrate Rapids in this one. Bemidji, Forest Lake, and at Roseau/Warroad are all hard fought wins and I think most know Marshall is an AA team playing A. Rapids has a lot of upside too with all their youth and guys like Alex Adams are playing like legit top line guys as sophomores. Rapids and East should be around 9-12 in your rankings.

Please explain how Marshall is an AA team playing A......

Anyways, Karl, your rankings are about spot on. East in my opinion is too high, but they haven't done much wrong so there's no reason to drop them from last weeks ranking.

GR losing to Marshall (which was ranked number 12 in A) is obviously going to push them back in the rankings. No reason to have them in the top 15 until they beat a top team like East did.

Needing OT to beat Cambridge is far worse than a close loss at Marshall.

[sticksave]

Joined: 05 Mar 2007
Posts: 313

New postPosted: Sun Dec 15, 2013 10:10 am Post subject: Reply with quote
If Elk River is rated #2 in your rankings this week, then this has to be the weakest group of top 10 teams in years.

REALLY! Not sure what you have against ER. They have bested Edina who is a quality team Ranked 1st at the time. They Beat DE at DE which few teams have been able to do in the past few years. 4 of they're 5 wins came against opponents who were ranked. By no means an easy schedule. Must be some sour grapes.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Karl, just go ahead and bump Elk River up to #1 right now. We won't mind.

It's only December, but a target on your back is a target on your back.

[sticksave]

Not arguing with the #2 ranking what I was questioning was MNMOUTH's comments that ER doesn't belong in Number two. No way to change the #1 #2 #3 rankings. All unbeaten and haven't faced each other.

[alcloseshaver]

Elk River has 3 nice wins, Edina, Grove and East. Andover 7-6? not so much and winless Osseo.

[sticksave]

Not arguing the Rankings one bit. Tell me who has faced all quality opponents
this year??????????anybody??????? Something about Andover and ER, Its always close. And Osseo,,, coach Roberts let his junior goalie start and complete his first varsity game. ER scored 8 goals On Osseo and could have run it up further but scaled back its attack and let some players who don't get a lot of ice, play. Maybe that win would mean more if Roberts had run the score up to a dozen or more. A win's a win in my book

[JoltDelivered]

Karl, just go ahead and bump Elk River up to #1 right now. We won't mind.

It's only December, but a target on your back is a target on your back.

Actually after last night's near cardiac arrest with 2-4 Mahtomedi, you might be able to make that argument. However, I say leave them there for now. People at the top typically don't worry about the rest of the minions. As Monte Burns would say..."Excellent"

[Slammer]

I agree with Northwoods, normally I agree with your ranking Karl, but you way overrate East and way underrate Rapids in this one. Bemidji, Forest Lake, and at Roseau/Warroad are all hard fought wins and I think most know Marshall is an AA team playing A. Rapids has a lot of upside too with all their youth and guys like Alex Adams are playing like legit top line guys as sophomores. Rapids and East should be around 9-12 in your rankings.

Please explain how Marshall is an AA team playing A......

Anyways, Karl, your rankings are about spot on. East in my opinion is too high, but they haven't done much wrong so there's no reason to drop them from last weeks ranking.

GR losing to Marshall (which was ranked number 12 in A) is obviously going to push them back in the rankings. No reason to have them in the top 15 until they beat a top team like East did.

Needing OT to beat Cambridge is far worse than a close loss at Marshall.

Both games were under very different circumstances.

Against Cambridge, it was the first game of the year, every team is rusty usually the first game. Randolph was messing with the lines and obviously Sibell was standing on his head. He played absolutley out of his mind, which can happen to any team. And they found a way to win, which is the most important thing. East went to the next game and beat a top team in the state.

Believe me, I'll be the first one to say East is not that good this year. Don't really think they can make it out of sections. But they do deserve to be in the 7-12 range in my opinion at this point. Only loss is against one of the best teams in AA.

For GR, they've had some wins against middle of the pack teams under their belt and then lost to a 10-15 ranked A team. Until GR beats a top team, they probably won't move up a lot. They have a lot of potential, but still are unproven.

[karl(east)]

Thanks for the feedback, as always. A few responses:

1. On Elk River and Hill looking vulnerable at times, I'd point out that all three of the undefeated teams at the top of the rankings have a narrow 1-goal win against a mediocre opponent: Hill against Mahtomedi, Elky against Andover, and Eden Prairie against Rosemount. As I said in the Hill comment, this one shows how vulnerable everyone is this year.

2. Holy Family vs. Benilde
The answer here is that I basically ranked the 9-15 teams against one another, without regard for head-to-head match-ups. Benilde's win over Burnsville boosts them a little bit, whereas Benilde is Holy Family's only quality win to date, and they have the Maple Grove loss floating in there. As it is, dropping Benilde from 3-11 was already a larger-than-usual hit. I certainly see the argument for a switch, though.

3. East. So in the preseason rankings I was sandbagging them, and now I'm wearing the red and grey glasses? Which is it?

As I mentioned above, I ranked the 9-15 against each other because they've all had a few tests, but have not been consistent or successful against the top teams. (WBL is the exception; they're untested so far, but dropped due to their tie with Forest Lake.) I also think the top six are pretty clear right now. That leaves us with two teams, East and Prior Lake. They've both only played four games, which is the least of any team considered for a ranking. I decided to put them in between the two groups of teams because they have wins against everyone below them, and losses to everyone above them, and I don't think any of their results so far are fluky. From that perspective, I think they're in a sensible place. Who do you slide ahead of them? A 3-loss Burnsville team? Wayzata, who East beat? Holy Family, on the strength of one good win?

As my fairly critical comment on the Hounds shows, I have my concerns here. I had them out of the top 15 in the preseason for a reason, too. Still, I'll offer two points in their defense:

-They were not overmatched by Wayzata or Elk River. They outshot both of them, and good chances were pretty much even. They were outshot by Cloquet, which is not good, but there's a rivalry factor there, and that's just one game. They completely controlled the Cambridge game and ran into a hot goalie. My point here: they can clearly play on even terms with the top teams in the state, and as I mentioned above, everyone is vulnerable to narrow wins this year. The important thing is that they get the wins in the end, and East's only loss right now is a very narrow loss to the #2 team in the state. A team like Grand Rapids *might* also be able to play with the top teams, but we have no proof of that quite yet.

-History is on their side. This is my 6th year of doing this, and in 3 of those years, East was a clear top team at the start of the season (09, 11, 12). In the other two (10, 13), East struggled some in December, especially on offense. People were making the exact same criticisms of East that we see so far: that I had them too high, that they didn't have much offense, that they weren't doing well enough against weak teams. In 2010, East steamrolled through the 7AA playoffs, gave Hill a good run at State, and finished 5th. Last year, they rattled off 15 straight wins between January and the state semis, and were the 2-seed at State. Going back to the years before I did this, from 06-08, East had about a .500 record in December every year and prompting some "what's wrong with East?" talk before going on a tear in the new year, though those years ended in playoff disappointment. Maybe it's Mike Randolph, maybe it's sheer coincidence and a function of the schedule, but the Hounds' performance usually ends up justifying these high early rankings.

I'll agree that this East squad isn't as talented as the last five, but I don't think they're any worse than those 06-08 teams, and they were all in the top ten or close to it. I also think that some of the teams currently behind them are more talented than they are. East's style of play may lend itself to some uncomfortably close games against weaker teams, but in the end, wins are wins, and that's what matters.

4. Lastly, I wanted to thank everyone for some good game summaries and comments over this past week--there was quality discussion here, and that helps immensely. Keep it going, please!

[Sats81]

Awesome work, as always.