AA Rankings for 1/30/22

[karl(east)]

1. Cretin-Derham Hall (17-3) LW: 1
-The Raiders keep rolling. If there’s a point of concern, it’s that they’re pretty consistently giving up 2-3 goals a game; I always wonder about teams that bleed a few against soft competition instead of locking them down. Still, when you’re scoring 6-plus goals every night*, that’s a fairly narrow point of concern. They do finally get their first ranked opponent in about a month this coming Saturday.
This week: Tues vs. Park (Cottage Grove), Sat vs. #14 Eden Prairie

2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (14-4) LW: 3
-The Red Knights flattened decent Holy Angels and Mahtomedi teams, pushing their winning streak to 12 and allowing them to climb up another spot after Andover’s loss. This week’s games will likely be ugly.
This week: Mon at Waconia, Sat at Bloomington Kennedy

3. Hill-Murray (15-3-1) LW: 4
-It wasn’t fancy, but the Pioneers continue our run of private schools at the top of the table after wins over Minnetonka and St. Thomas Academy. At this point, their steadiness (even amid some off-ice challenges) is their greatest asset. The annual home-and-home with Edina is next, though extending the shutout streak in that series will be a tall order.
This week: Fri vs. #9 Edina, Sat at #9 Edina

4. Wayzata (13-5-1) LW: 6
-After a holiday season lapse the Trojans are back on track (some Buffalo struggles notwithstanding), winning six in a row, including a grinding, 1-0 overtime effort over Edina that keeps them in play for the top seed in 6AA. The week ahead is an interesting one, as they could use some revenge over their last loss and will then make another long road trip north.
This week: Thurs vs. Minnetonka, Sat at #13 Grand Rapids

5. Andover (16-3-1) LW: 2
-The Huskies’ loss to Rogers drops them from their lofty spot and continues the raising of the doubts for a team that has its share of quality wins but has had some stumbles down the stretch here. They’ve already beaten their two opponents this week, but neither one is a free pass, either.
This week: Thurs at Blaine, Sat vs. #12 Centennial

6. Maple Grove (14-5-1) LW: 11
-The Crimson had the most impressive past week of anyone after they went north and steamrolled both Grand Rapids and Hermantown. Their front-end forward talent can compete with anyone, and they held up reasonably well against two quality attacks, too. If they can keep playing like this, they are a legitimate title contender. We’ll see if they can keep it going against two teams that are capable of beating them on an off night.
This week: Thurs vs. #15 St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. Stillwater

7. Roseau (16-3) LW: 7
-The Rams avenged their earlier loss to Warroad and plowed past a couple of section opponents, strengthening their position after a couple of losses. On paper they shouldn’t be too troubled this coming week unless East Grand can find some other level.
This week: Thurs vs. Bemidji, Fri at East Grand Forks

8. Moorhead (15-5-1) LW: 8
-The Spuds salvaged a tie with Warroad, which keeps them from falling much here. Just one game this week, and while it is no longer a section battle, it is certainly a fascinating one given the way both these teams are trending.
This week: Sat at #11 Rogers

9. Edina (12-7) LW: 5
-The Hornets did not have a fun week of conference play, as they got shut out by Wayzata and lost to Eden Prairie for a second time. They continue to go in waves, showing impressive top-end potential before languishing for long stretches. We’ll see what they can make of Hill, which, unlike these Hornets, have mostly been models of steadiness.
This week: Fri at #3 Hill-Murray, Sat vs. #3 Hill-Murray

10. Lakeville South (15-3) LW: 10
-A second win over North has the Cougars firmly ensconced in the top spot in 1AA, and they’ve now recorded four shutouts in a row. I’m increasingly bullish on this team, though they do not play another top 15 opponent the rest of the way, which raises that eternal question of just how battle-tested they’ll be, especially if and when they come out of their section.
This week: Sat vs. Shakopee

11. Rogers (14-6-1) LW: 13
-Here come the Royals, who have now won 10 of 11 and put a cherry on top with a win over Andover this past week. There are still some questions here (this team lost to St. Cloud, after all), but it’s hard to question the momentum. The top ten could be within reach if they can take down Moorhead.
This week: Thurs vs. Coon Rapids, Sat vs. #8 Moorhead

12. Centennial (14-3-1) LW: 12
-Beating Duluth East took some effort, but the Cougars also shellacked Blaine to once again show their off their potent offense. They now get a second crack at Andover two weeks after giving up seven to the Huskies.
This week: Thurs at Totino-Grace, Sat at #5 Andover

13. Grand Rapids (15-5-1) LW: 9
-Maple Grove humbled the Thunderhawks, though they bounced back with a thumping of White Bear Lake. They only have four games left; all of them are at home, and all of them are nasty. The first test: try to crack that Wayzata defense.
This week: Sat vs. #4 Wayzata

14. Eden Prairie (12-7) LW: 14
-It was a momentous week off the ice for the Eagles, with the announcement of the end of the Lee Smith era; on the ice, meanwhile, they score some bonus points with a second win over Edina. They get a crack at Cretin this week, which gives them a chance at an impressive result against a team other than the Hornets; Mahtomedi could be interesting as well if the Zephyrs are able to lock down as they so often are.
This week: Wed at Mahtomedi, Sat at #1 Cretin-Derham Hall

15. St. Thomas Academy (11-9) LW: NR
-The Cadets got a helpful win over Prior Lake, which stabilized a floundering squad, and while the Hill loss isn’t great, it was competitive enough that they slip back up here with no one else doing much to make a play for this spot. Four of their last five games are looking pretty tough, with the Maple Grove game this week drawing special interest this week given the Crimson’s recent surge.
This week: Tues vs. Stillwater, Thurs at #6 Maple Grove, Sat vs. Simley

The Next Ten

Minnetonka (10-8-1)
-The Skippers kept a game with Hill reasonably interesting and beat two teams they should beat. Like Eden Prairie, they seem to have found their level, albeit a somewhat lower one. A three-game week includes a visit to Duluth and a chance to sweep rival Wayzata, which would certainly boost their stock.

Lakeville North (14-4)
-Swept a two-game set with Rosemount, which is a solid South Suburban showing, but showed they’re still a step short of their rivals to the south. Just one game this week as they try to beat Prior Lake for a second time.

Stillwater (14-5)
-Cruise control against conference competition. That changes this week, as they battle both St. Thomas and Maple Grove; can they do what they have not done in their last couple games against top-flight teams and make either one interesting?

Chaska (13-5)
-Steamrolling through weak opponents. Eastview offers a bit more of a challenge this coming week.

Gentry Academy (13-3)
-Got pushed by Duluth Denfeld much more than in the teams’ first meeting, but they found a way to pull it out. Holy Family is next on their list of semi-interesting opponents.

Elk River (13-7-1)
-Not the prettiest of weeks for the Elks, who lost (understandably) to Andover but had to scrape out one-goal wins against Bemidji and Totino. Osseo and Duluth East are up this week.

Prior Lake (11-9)
-Lost to St. Thomas but beat Eastview, which is basically a hold for this squad. The week ahead is actually a somewhat important one, as they face Rosemount and Lakeville North: can they show signs of righting the ship against good-but-beatable conference opponents? Or are they just who they’ve seemed to be all season long?

Champlin Park (10-7-1)
-The Rebels are staying in the picture here after winning games they should win. There’s little reason to expect any different in their lone game with Spring Lake Park coming up.

Holy Angels (15-3-1)
-The Stars are in control of the 4-seed in 6AA after a win over Blake. They’ve shown some real progress this season, but we’ll see if it can build to anything beyond where they are now. They shouldn’t be troubled this coming week.

Hastings (17-2-1)
-I’ve gone back and forth on the Raiders, dropping them last week when they barely beat Rochester Mayo, but climbing back into the picture with a win over Mahtomedi this past week. Their winning streak is now at 13, and Two Rivers this week gives them a chance to keep beating that drum.

Sections!

1AA
10 Lakeville South
17 Lakeville North
25 Hastings
Rochester Mayo
-South erased any doubt over the top seed here with a second win over North. The only outstanding question here would seem to be #2 vs. #3, and North and Hastings do play the final week of the season, which will settle that. If Mayo can avoid any serious letdowns down the stretch, they should be pretty safe as the 4-seed.

2AA
14 Eden Prairie
22 Prior Lake
16 Minnetonka
19 Chaska
-This is not going to be an easy section to predict come playoffs, but it does look like an easy one to seed. They’re in a nice order of who’s beaten who, and while Eden Prairie and Minnetonka do have a second meeting pending, the Skippers would need to do a lot more than win that game—and Prior Lake would probably need to find more ways to lose games they shouldn’t—for anything to change. There is some advantage to getting the 2-seed instead of the 3-seed, as the likely 4s and 5s, Holy Family and Chanhassen, have shown they can at least be competitive.

3AA
1 Cretin-Derham Hall
15 St. Thomas Academy
Rosemount
Eastview
-The head-to-head results are wild enough in this section that I’m inclined to ignore them. Cretin has had by far the best season of anyone here, so should be #1 despite the St. Thomas losses; St. Thomas, while wildly inconsistent, still has a much stronger résumé than the South Suburban entrants. Rosemount and Easview have their second meeting next week, which will likely settle the 3-seed. And that is that.

4AA
3 Hill-Murray
18 Stillwater
White Bear Lake
20 Gentry Academy
-The top two here seem safe, so the only real question is White Bear versus Gentry for the 3-seed. If I had to pick one of the two head-to-head, I’d probably lean Gentry, but I expect the Bears to get more benefit of the doubt given their much stronger schedule, so I’m slotting them in at the 3-seed here.

5AA
11 Rogers
12 Centennial
6 Maple Grove
23 Champlin Park
-And then there’s this one. I’ve thought all along that Maple Grove is the best of the bunch, but with a 1-2 record against Centennial and Rogers and no games left against them, the Leaves have no clear path to the top seed unless the vote strongly favors reputation and overall body of work. If Rogers wins the final-week battle with Centennial, the top seed is theirs, and I would give Maple Grove the 2-seed; if the Cougars take it, they jump to the top while the Crimson settle at #3. I think.

6AA
4 Wayzata
2 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
9 Edina
24 Holy Angels
-The state’s juiciest race will likely go down to the final day of the regular season, when Edina and Wayzata will play for a third time. With a 2-1 record against the other members of the big three, I’ve got the Trojans on top right now, while Benilde is 1-1 and Edina is 1-2. A Wayzata win in the finale would lock this in. An Edina win, on the other hand, makes a total mess of it all. In that scenario they’d likely go in ranking order, which at this point would likely be 1. Benilde 2. Edina 3. Wayzata, but there are enough moving parts here that nothing is certain. We’ll check back again in two weeks.

7AA
5 Andover
13 Grand Rapids
Blaine
Forest Lake
-Continued stability in this one, and with QRF in place, this week’s Blaine-Andover game is unlikely to change much. Blaine seems safely settled at #3, while Grand Rapids has at least some shot at the top spot with a tough closing schedule and that date with Andover in two weeks. Forest Lake is still probably in line for the 4-seed right now, but an improving Duluth East could climb QRF pretty quickly given how weak the rest of the section is.

8AA
7 Roseau
8 Moorhead
21 Elk River
Buffalo
-The process here is pretty clear. The top spot gets settled in the season’s final week when the Spuds visit the Rams. Elk River is safe at #3, and this week’s Buffalo-St. Michael-Albertville rematch will likely settle the 4-seed.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Maple Grove is a loaded team! Grove completely obliterated 'rapidly declining'. With the 6-3 thumping can we finally end the nonsense talk about Hermantown this, Hermantown that and leave them in the single A discussion?

BSM is another high octane offense it appears should flatten the 2 cupcakes on this weeks schedule.

Is CDH back in an east side section for 2022? Like to see them on stage in St. Paul in March

[Sparlimb]

Maple Grove is a loaded team! Grove completely obliterated 'rapidly declining'. With the 6-3 thumping can we finally end the nonsense talk about Hermantown this, Hermantown that and leave them in the single A discussion?

BSM is another high octane offense it appears should flatten the 2 cupcakes on this weeks schedule.

Is CDH back in an east side section for 2022? Like to see them on stage in St. Paul in March

CDH got thrown in with STA, which makes more sense than Edina's section.

There is some real parity this year. Someone is going to get hot and no one knows who it will be. Any number of teams could get hot and win it all. I can't begin to guess who it will be.

I'm still saying watch out for Hastings. I think they'll play South in the section finals and it will be another close game.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Overall, there is parity, with no one or 2 or 3 dominant teams. What I find interesting that some of these sections are a little lacking compared to recent years. Sections 1, 2, and 5 don't look very potent. Not that I'm counting anyone out.

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Great work as always, Karl. This board is lucky to have you. High school hockey is lucky to have you.

A couple random jottings from me:

Moorhead has played 11 games decided by one goal or less. They are 8-2-1 in those contests.

With Duluth East steadily improving, should Minnetonka be on upset alert tomorrow night?

[green4]

Overall, there is parity, with no one or 2 or 3 dominant teams. What I find interesting that some of these sections are a little lacking compared to recent years. Sections 1, 2, and 5 don't look very potent. Not that I'm counting anyone out.

No offense but section 4 looks worse than 5. I might argue 2 is better than 4 as well. Section 2 has two competitive teams that are a around 15 overall and 2 wild card teams, so that section is a bit unpredictable but if any of those teams go to state I think they could make a game of it.
On the other side, section 4 has one team in my opinion. If Hill does not go to state that section will be 2 and out. Stillwater hasn’t beaten any team to note and only played benilde and Blaine close, their other losses are not great.
White bear lake has lost every meaningful game and most of them pretty bad, the exception being the Hill game was close. Gentry is a bit unknown so them as the four seed could be interesting, but I don’t think their results are too impressive.

Hill is probably better than every team in section 1, 2 and 5 but I would rather see a lot of those teams in those sections at state before a secondary team in section 4 because I think they would fare better or maybe in the case of Hastings, it would be fun to see at least. Though they played Hill better than Stillwater so maybe I shouldn’t count them out either

[SEC Scotty]

Great Job Karl!

Hate to say it but right now Hill Murray has the easiest path to State. With the combination of section 4AA competition and home cooking it's going to take a huge upset to stop them. Defensively only BSM has put up more than 4 goals against them and that was early. The goaltending is solid, and they limit good scoring chances. They have looked better each time I have seen them play.

[Sparlimb]

Gentry is a big unknown. I think with their record and White Bear's big losses, they could easily be the 3 seed. I'm not sure who I'd rather see in the semi's for HM. Hill may have the easiest path to state (although it's likely Lakeville South), but they aren't up and above anyone. BSM beat them, Andover beat them and both could be competition at state. They are great defensively, assuming the Gruba injury this week isn't serious, but they often don't score enough (see WBL game). They have the ability to let teams keep it close in an annoying way. I just think the group of teams that are legitimate contenders this year is in the teens, which is very unusual. State seeding is going to be very interesting.

But there's a positive to all this. We should have 4 great quarterfinals that are tossups. Which often isn't the case. Looking forward to how it all works out this year.

[east hockey]

Great work as always, Karl. This board is lucky to have you. High school hockey is lucky to have you.

A couple random jottings from me:

Moorhead has played 11 games decided by one goal or less. They are 8-2-1 in those contests.

With Duluth East steadily improving, should Minnetonka be on upset alert tomorrow night?

The Hounds are 4-4-1 in their last nine, with two of those losses being by a single goal to Centennial and Moorhead. This team isn't the train wreck we saw at the start of the season. That being said, I'd still favor the Skippers by about three goals.

And when was the last time I was "hopeful" because East had played .500 hockey over an extended spread? I'd say "never"

Lee

[O-townClown]

Looks great, Karl

[karl(east)]

Great work as always, Karl. This board is lucky to have you. High school hockey is lucky to have you.

A couple random jottings from me:

Moorhead has played 11 games decided by one goal or less. They are 8-2-1 in those contests.

With Duluth East steadily improving, should Minnetonka be on upset alert tomorrow night?

The Hounds are 4-4-1 in their last nine, with two of those losses being by a single goal to Centennial and Moorhead. This team isn't the train wreck we saw at the start of the season. That being said, I'd still favor the Skippers by about three goals.

And when was the last time I was "hopeful" because East had played .500 hockey over an extended spread? I'd say "never"

Lee

Yeah, the Hounds' progress after their Covid pause has been visible, and they're crawling toward contention. I certainly wouldn't favor them over Minnetonka, but if they can hang with Moorhead and Centennial, the upset is at least possible.

As always, I appreciate the praise. Had a great hockey-filled weekend here, going to two games and then enjoying a few libations afterward on Saturday night, then putting out one of our juicier podcasts today and another pleasant little surprise. As long as it stays fun, I won't be stopping any of it anytime soon.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Maple Grove is a loaded team! Grove completely obliterated 'rapidly declining'. With the 6-3 thumping can we finally end the nonsense talk about Hermantown this, Hermantown that and leave them in the single A discussion?

BSM is another high octane offense it appears should flatten the 2 cupcakes on this weeks schedule.

Is CDH back in an east side section for 2022? Like to see them on stage in St. Paul in March

CDH got thrown in with STA, which makes more sense than Edina's section.

There is some real parity this year. Someone is going to get hot and no one knows who it will be. Any number of teams could get hot and win it all. I can't begin to guess who it will be.

I'm still saying watch out for Hastings. I think they'll play South in the section finals and it will be another close game.

The O'Leary clan is peaking at right time of the season.

[BlueLineSpecial]

3. Hill-Murray (15-3-1) LW: 4
-It wasn’t fancy, but the Pioneers continue our run of private schools at the top of the table after wins over Minnetonka and St. Thomas Academy. At this point, their steadiness (even amid some off-ice challenges) is their greatest asset. The annual home-and-home with Edina is next, though extending the shutout streak in that series will be a tall order.
This week: Fri vs. #9 Edina, Sat at #9 Edina

It will be a tall order indeed. Hill hasn't given up a goal to Edina in 4 straight games

HM 3 Edina 0
HM 1 Edina 0
HM 3 Edina 0
HM 2 Edina 0

Edina scored in the 2nd period of a game in early 2019, meaning they've gone 13 straight periods without a goal against Hill. Pretty remarkable.

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Hill and Duluth East have seemed to be the two teams that have been Hornet kryptonite (Hornet swatters?) during the peak Giles years. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they play similar tight-checking styles. Wayzata also plays that style but Edina has had better luck with them. Maybe it’s familiarity.

[Sparlimb]

Hill and Duluth East have seemed to be the two teams that have been Hornet kryptonite (Hornet swatters?) during the peak Giles years. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they play similar tight-checking styles. Wayzata also plays that style but Edina has had better luck with them. Maybe it’s familiarity.

Edina hasn't had its best squads the past 2 years either, so its sort of an anomaly. I think Edina has the best record of any team against HM (probably assuming 2+ games), but those stats don't get updated much anymore, so I'd have to do some looking to see what it currently is. But I'd guess near .500 with Edina probably having a small advantage.

The shutout streak will end this week. But still an impressive streak.

Guess they did update the stats on the HM site. Hill is 23-19-3 against Edina (0-1-0 against Edina East and 1-2-1 against Edina West).

[Duluthguy]

How many different schools have held the #1 spot in Karl's rankings this year?

[karl(east)]

How many different schools have held the #1 spot in Karl's rankings this year?

Four (Cretin, Edina, Lakeville South, Roseau). CDH has actually been there in 6 of the 10 rankings issued, including preseason, one week in mid-December, and the past four. Edina lasted two, though they didn't play anyone in the first of their weeks. South and Roseau did not stick around.

[BlueLineSpecial]

How many different schools have held the #1 spot in Karl's rankings this year?

Four (Cretin, Edina, Lakeville South, Roseau). CDH has actually been there in 6 of the 10 rankings issued, including preseason, one week in mid-December, and the past four. Edina lasted two, though they didn't play anyone in the first of their weeks. South and Roseau did not stick around.

Interesting. For all the talk of parity this year - and it exists - it really hasn't been reflected at the top of the rankings.

Cretin's schedule has been (and will be) pretty soft to close out the year. They may not budge from that top spot....

[goldy313]

You outshoot a team with the top ranked goalie by a 3:1 margin and win but get punished for it.

Only in Karl’s world.

[Stang5280]

You outshoot a team with the top ranked goalie by a 3:1 margin and win but get punished for it.

Only in Karl’s world.

How was Hastings punished? Karl did not have them ranked two weeks ago but moved them in last week. Granted, they are only sitting at the 25 spot, but Hastings actually rose slightly after the Mahtomedi win.

[goldy313]

If Hastings was in any section but 1AA Karl would have them higher.

[northwoods oldtimer]

If Hastings was in any section but 1AA Karl would have them higher.

Na man, I ain't buying it. That's a pretty light schedule. That said, be nice to se Hastings get out of section 1 with a championship in 2022.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Uh, I don't get it. Why all the interest in Hastings?

[east hockey]

Uh, I don't get it. Why all the interest in Hastings?

Goldie is upset because Karl won't fawn over good 1AA teams.

Lee

[StanleyCup55]

Hastings lost to Hill 0-4 and STA 1-7. They also tied Tartan and have a lot of wins against average teams. No considerable wins over AA teams. I wouldn’t put them in my top 25.