Scores through February 4, 2006 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Week's Rankings . New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin,_________________________ 19 7 2, 1.6, 7.9, 9.52, 7.53 2,Minnesota,_________________________ 18 6 4, 1.4, 8.0, 9.32, 9.78 3,Miami,_____________________________ 20 5 4, 1.4, 7.5, 8.86, 8.86 4,St. Cloud State,___________________ 16 9 3, 1.1, 7.5, 8.65, 9.76 5,Colorado College,__________________ 18 11 1, 0.8, 7.9, 8.64, 6.87 6,North Dakota,______________________ 18 13 1, 0.7, 7.9, 8.59, 8.67 7,Michigan,__________________________ 16 10 3, 0.8, 7.7, 8.52, 8.30 8,Boston College,____________________ 17 6 2, 1.3, 7.1, 8.36, 8.18 9,Maine,_____________________________ 18 10 0, 1.2, 7.1, 8.26, 8.38 10,Denver,____________________________ 16 10 2, 0.5, 7.7, 8.19, 9.89 11,Ohio State,________________________ 14 12 4, 0.6, 7.5, 8.18, 7.45 12,Michigan State,____________________ 16 10 7, 0.6, 7.6, 8.13, 8.08 13,Boston University,_________________ 15 8 2, 0.8, 7.3, 8.06, 9.18 14,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 15 11 4, 0.4, 7.6, 8.05, 9.99 15,Providence,________________________ 14 10 2, 0.8, 7.3, 8.03, 8.01 16,Vermont,___________________________ 17 8 3, 1.0, 7.0, 7.99, 6.83 17,Lake Superior,_____________________ 14 8 6, 0.6, 7.3, 7.85, 7.19 18,Cornell,___________________________ 16 4 3, 1.0, 6.8, 7.85, 8.27 19,Minnesota State,___________________ 12 14 4, 0.3, 7.5, 7.77, 8.49 20,Ferris State,______________________ 14 10 6, 0.3, 7.3, 7.67, 7.72 21,Northern Michigan,_________________ 16 12 2, 0.3, 7.3, 7.64, 5.90 22,New Hampshire,_____________________ 14 10 4, 0.3, 7.2, 7.56, 7.33 23,Alaska-Fairbanks,__________________ 11 13 4, -0.4, 8.0, 7.55, 8.40 24,Colgate,___________________________ 15 8 5, 0.6, 6.8, 7.49, 7.29 25,Dartmouth,_________________________ 11 10 2, 0.6, 6.9, 7.48, 7.89 26,Harvard,___________________________ 12 8 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.41, 6.51 27,Notre Dame,________________________ 9 16 3, -0.5, 7.9, 7.33, 7.85 28,St. Lawrence,______________________ 15 12 1, 0.2, 7.1, 7.28, 6.21 29,Bemidji State,_____________________ 13 10 3, 0.7, 6.6, 7.22, 7.00 30,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 16 1, -0.4, 7.5, 7.09, 5.95 31,Quinnipiac,________________________ 15 14 0, 0.6, 6.5, 7.04, 8.85 32,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 9 17 4, -0.9, 7.8, 6.90, 6.25 33,Clarkson,__________________________ 13 13 2, 0.0, 6.9, 6.89, 5.44 34,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 14 8 2, 0.3, 6.5, 6.76, 7.48 35,Princeton,_________________________ 9 13 1, -0.3, 7.1, 6.75, 7.98 36,Massachusetts,_____________________ 11 15 0, -0.6, 7.2, 6.56, 7.71 37,Niagara,___________________________ 13 12 1, -0.2, 6.7, 6.54, 7.14 38,Rensselaer,________________________ 11 14 4, -0.2, 6.8, 6.51, 4.56 39,Yale,______________________________ 7 12 3, -0.7, 7.1, 6.42, 7.71 40,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 6 21 3, -1.7, 8.0, 6.37, 5.94 41,Mass.-Lowell,______________________ 10 16 1, -1.0, 7.3, 6.28, 5.68 42,Holy Cross,________________________ 19 6 1, 1.0, 5.2, 6.24, 6.13 43,Union,_____________________________ 13 11 6, -0.4, 6.6, 6.24, 6.39 44,Sacred Heart,______________________ 17 10 1, 0.9, 5.2, 6.15, 6.28 45,Brown,_____________________________ 3 14 6, -1.1, 7.2, 6.06, 6.29 46,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 7 18 3, -1.7, 7.7, 6.03, 6.84 47,Western Michigan,__________________ 6 19 4, -1.8, 7.7, 5.86, 6.03 48,Mercyhurst,________________________ 15 10 0, 0.7, 5.1, 5.86, 6.21 49,Northeastern,______________________ 1 18 6, -1.6, 7.5, 5.86, 5.89 50,Robert Morris,_____________________ 8 15 2, -0.9, 6.3, 5.41, 6.29 51,Merrimack,_________________________ 5 18 3, -1.6, 7.0, 5.36, 6.39 52,Wayne State,_______________________ 5 16 5, -1.5, 6.8, 5.21, 6.04 53,Air Force,_________________________ 5 16 1, -1.1, 6.3, 5.12, 3.56 54,Army,______________________________ 10 14 5, -0.3, 5.5, 5.11, 4.93 55,RIT,_______________________________ 4 17 2, -1.1, 6.1, 5.01, 4.78 56,Canisius,__________________________ 8 17 1, -0.7, 5.2, 4.48, 5.90 57,Bentley,___________________________ 9 12 4, -0.9, 5.3, 4.44, 4.57 58,Connecticut,_______________________ 7 17 1, -1.3, 5.4, 4.06, 2.66 59,American Int'l,____________________ 4 16 2, -2.1, 5.5, 3.34, 2.26 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below Maximum Goal Differential = 1 RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Miami,_____________________________ 20 5 4, 0.5, 7.2, 7.68, 7.77 2,Minnesota,_________________________ 18 6 4, 0.4, 7.2, 7.67, 8.12 3,Wisconsin,_________________________ 19 7 2, 0.4, 7.2, 7.67, 6.70 4,Michigan,__________________________ 16 10 3, 0.2, 7.2, 7.44, 7.43 5,Colorado College,__________________ 18 11 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.44, 6.95 6,Boston College,____________________ 17 6 2, 0.4, 7.0, 7.44, 7.33 7,Cornell,___________________________ 16 4 3, 0.5, 6.9, 7.43, 7.75 8,Michigan State,____________________ 16 10 7, 0.2, 7.2, 7.38, 7.45 9,St. Cloud State,___________________ 16 9 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.37, 8.03 10,North Dakota,______________________ 18 13 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.37, 7.13 11,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 15 11 4, 0.1, 7.2, 7.35, 7.91 12,Denver,____________________________ 16 10 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.35, 8.24 13,Lake Superior,_____________________ 14 8 6, 0.2, 7.1, 7.34, 7.22 14,Boston University,_________________ 15 8 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.33, 7.83 15,Ferris State,______________________ 14 10 6, 0.1, 7.2, 7.30, 7.46 16,Ohio State,________________________ 14 12 4, 0.1, 7.2, 7.29, 7.04 17,Vermont,___________________________ 17 8 3, 0.3, 7.0, 7.29, 6.97 18,Northern Michigan,_________________ 16 12 2, 0.1, 7.1, 7.27, 6.73 19,Maine,_____________________________ 18 10 0, 0.3, 7.0, 7.27, 7.50 20,Alaska-Fairbanks,__________________ 11 13 4, -0.1, 7.3, 7.24, 7.47 21,Providence,________________________ 14 10 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.22, 7.26 22,Colgate,___________________________ 15 8 5, 0.3, 7.0, 7.20, 7.27 23,Harvard,___________________________ 12 8 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.20, 6.82 24,New Hampshire,_____________________ 14 10 4, 0.1, 7.0, 7.18, 6.91 25,St. Lawrence,______________________ 15 12 1, 0.1, 7.0, 7.10, 6.37 26,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 16 1, -0.1, 7.2, 7.06, 6.95 27,Minnesota State,___________________ 12 14 4, -0.1, 7.1, 7.04, 7.15 28,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 14 8 2, 0.3, 6.8, 7.04, 7.18 29,Notre Dame,________________________ 9 16 3, -0.3, 7.3, 7.03, 7.12 30,Dartmouth,_________________________ 11 10 2, 0.0, 7.0, 7.02, 7.23 31,Holy Cross,________________________ 19 6 1, 0.5, 6.5, 7.01, 7.23 32,Bemidji State,_____________________ 13 10 3, 0.1, 6.8, 6.96, 6.82 33,Clarkson,__________________________ 13 13 2, 0.0, 7.0, 6.95, 6.48 34,Niagara,___________________________ 13 12 1, 0.0, 6.9, 6.94, 7.02 35,Union,_____________________________ 13 11 6, 0.1, 6.9, 6.92, 7.09 36,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 9 17 4, -0.3, 7.2, 6.91, 6.76 37,Massachusetts,_____________________ 11 15 0, -0.2, 7.1, 6.90, 7.33 38,Quinnipiac,________________________ 15 14 0, 0.0, 6.8, 6.88, 7.42 39,Princeton,_________________________ 9 13 1, -0.2, 7.0, 6.87, 7.64 40,Mass.-Lowell,______________________ 10 16 1, -0.2, 7.1, 6.84, 6.60 41,Rensselaer,________________________ 11 14 4, -0.1, 6.9, 6.83, 6.17 42,Yale,______________________________ 7 12 3, -0.2, 7.0, 6.80, 7.08 43,Western Michigan,__________________ 6 19 4, -0.4, 7.2, 6.79, 6.92 44,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 7 18 3, -0.4, 7.2, 6.77, 7.10 45,Sacred Heart,______________________ 17 10 1, 0.3, 6.5, 6.77, 7.16 46,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 6 21 3, -0.5, 7.3, 6.76, 6.44 47,Mercyhurst,________________________ 15 10 0, 0.2, 6.5, 6.73, 6.57 48,Brown,_____________________________ 3 14 6, -0.5, 7.1, 6.57, 6.55 49,Wayne State,_______________________ 5 16 5, -0.4, 6.9, 6.52, 6.62 50,Robert Morris,_____________________ 8 15 2, -0.3, 6.8, 6.51, 6.88 51,Merrimack,_________________________ 5 18 3, -0.5, 7.0, 6.48, 6.74 52,Army,______________________________ 10 14 5, -0.1, 6.6, 6.47, 6.31 53,Northeastern,______________________ 1 18 6, -0.7, 7.1, 6.46, 6.34 54,Bentley,___________________________ 9 12 4, -0.1, 6.5, 6.42, 6.14 55,Air Force,_________________________ 5 16 1, -0.5, 6.8, 6.26, 5.77 56,Connecticut,_______________________ 7 17 1, -0.4, 6.6, 6.18, 5.62 57,Canisius,__________________________ 8 17 1, -0.3, 6.5, 6.18, 6.61 58,RIT,_______________________________ 4 17 2, -0.6, 6.7, 6.17, 6.04 59,American Int'l,____________________ 4 16 2, -0.5, 6.6, 6.06, 5.79 Link to the 2004-2005 Final Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed below. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Note that the current spread between #1 and #59 is about 1.9 . Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: CT IA IL IN MA MD MD-VA ME MI MN MN-WI-ND MO ND Northeast NH NJ NY WNY Club OH PA-E PA-W RI VA VT WI wWI USA New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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