Scores through February 18, 2006 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Week's Rankings . New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin,_________________________ 21 7 3, 1.7, 7.8, 9.53, 8.61 2,Minnesota,_________________________ 21 6 5, 1.4, 7.9, 9.33, 9.72 3,Miami,_____________________________ 21 7 4, 1.3, 7.6, 8.82, 7.97 4,Colorado College,__________________ 21 12 1, 0.9, 7.9, 8.77, 9.48 5,North Dakota,______________________ 20 13 1, 0.9, 7.8, 8.74, 9.52 6,Michigan,__________________________ 18 12 4, 0.8, 7.7, 8.51, 8.13 7,St. Cloud State,___________________ 17 12 3, 0.9, 7.6, 8.48, 8.08 8,Maine,_____________________________ 21 10 1, 1.3, 7.2, 8.44, 8.78 9,Denver,____________________________ 18 12 2, 0.5, 7.8, 8.33, 8.90 10,Boston College,____________________ 19 9 2, 1.1, 7.2, 8.32, 8.15 11,Michigan State,____________________ 19 10 7, 0.6, 7.7, 8.31, 9.35 12,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 18 11 5, 0.6, 7.7, 8.23, 9.40 13,Boston University,_________________ 19 9 2, 0.8, 7.3, 8.12, 8.34 14,Ohio State,________________________ 15 15 5, 0.4, 7.7, 8.07, 7.35 15,Vermont,___________________________ 18 10 4, 0.8, 7.1, 7.81, 6.78 16,Providence,________________________ 16 12 2, 0.6, 7.2, 7.81, 6.53 17,Minnesota State,___________________ 14 16 4, 0.1, 7.6, 7.74, 6.77 18,Cornell,___________________________ 17 6 4, 0.9, 6.9, 7.71, 7.38 19,Lake Superior,_____________________ 15 11 6, 0.3, 7.4, 7.68, 6.91 20,New Hampshire,_____________________ 16 11 5, 0.5, 7.2, 7.66, 8.88 21,Northern Michigan,_________________ 18 14 2, 0.3, 7.4, 7.65, 7.43 22,Alaska-Fairbanks,__________________ 14 13 5, -0.2, 7.8, 7.58, 7.69 23,Ferris State,______________________ 14 13 7, 0.1, 7.4, 7.55, 7.41 24,Notre Dame,________________________ 12 16 4, -0.3, 7.8, 7.53, 8.67 25,Dartmouth,_________________________ 14 11 2, 0.6, 6.9, 7.53, 7.50 26,St. Lawrence,______________________ 18 12 2, 0.4, 7.0, 7.43, 7.79 27,Harvard,___________________________ 15 10 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.42, 7.56 28,Colgate,___________________________ 16 10 6, 0.5, 6.8, 7.37, 7.05 29,Bemidji State,_____________________ 16 11 3, 0.9, 6.5, 7.36, 7.35 30,Clarkson,__________________________ 16 13 3, 0.3, 6.8, 7.14, 8.11 31,Quinnipiac,________________________ 16 15 1, 0.6, 6.5, 7.05, 8.62 32,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 19 2, -0.5, 7.5, 6.98, 6.05 33,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 9 19 4, -1.1, 7.8, 6.78, 5.66 34,Princeton,_________________________ 9 16 2, -0.4, 7.1, 6.66, 6.82 35,Massachusetts,_____________________ 12 18 0, -0.7, 7.3, 6.62, 7.37 36,Rensselaer,________________________ 13 14 6, -0.1, 6.7, 6.60, 6.98 37,Niagara,___________________________ 15 14 1, -0.0, 6.5, 6.49, 5.75 38,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 16 10 2, 0.1, 6.3, 6.41, 5.11 39,Union,_____________________________ 16 12 6, -0.2, 6.6, 6.40, 7.22 40,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 6 23 3, -1.8, 8.1, 6.35, 5.57 41,Holy Cross,________________________ 21 7 2, 1.0, 5.3, 6.30, 6.48 42,Mass.-Lowell,______________________ 11 17 2, -0.9, 7.2, 6.27, 5.08 43,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 7 20 5, -1.8, 8.0, 6.21, 7.69 44,Yale,______________________________ 8 16 3, -0.9, 7.0, 6.10, 4.77 45,Sacred Heart,______________________ 18 10 2, 1.0, 5.1, 6.10, 5.20 46,Northeastern,______________________ 3 21 6, -1.6, 7.5, 5.96, 6.33 47,Mercyhurst,________________________ 18 11 1, 0.7, 5.2, 5.94, 6.10 48,Western Michigan,__________________ 7 22 5, -1.8, 7.6, 5.83, 5.88 49,Brown,_____________________________ 3 18 6, -1.4, 7.1, 5.71, 4.62 50,Air Force,_________________________ 9 17 1, -0.7, 6.3, 5.52, 7.17 51,Merrimack,_________________________ 5 20 5, -1.6, 7.0, 5.36, 5.36 52,Robert Morris,_____________________ 9 17 3, -1.0, 6.3, 5.34, 5.38 53,Wayne State,_______________________ 6 18 6, -1.4, 6.7, 5.33, 5.86 54,Army,______________________________ 10 15 6, -0.4, 5.4, 5.09, 5.05 55,RIT,_______________________________ 4 21 2, -1.1, 6.2, 5.06, 5.25 56,Canisius,__________________________ 9 20 1, -0.7, 5.3, 4.54, 5.15 57,Bentley,___________________________ 11 14 5, -0.9, 5.3, 4.42, 4.08 58,Connecticut,_______________________ 9 19 2, -1.0, 5.3, 4.30, 5.43 59,American Int'l,____________________ 5 18 4, -2.0, 5.4, 3.43, 3.65 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below Maximum Goal Differential = 1 RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Minnesota,_________________________ 21 6 5, 0.5, 7.2, 7.71, 8.03 2,Wisconsin,_________________________ 21 7 3, 0.5, 7.2, 7.69, 7.35 3,Miami,_____________________________ 21 7 4, 0.4, 7.2, 7.62, 7.16 4,Michigan State,____________________ 19 10 7, 0.3, 7.2, 7.49, 8.35 5,Colorado College,__________________ 21 12 1, 0.3, 7.2, 7.48, 7.71 6,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 18 11 5, 0.2, 7.2, 7.44, 7.94 7,Michigan,__________________________ 18 12 4, 0.2, 7.3, 7.43, 7.23 8,North Dakota,______________________ 20 13 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.42, 7.41 9,Boston University,_________________ 19 9 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.41, 7.77 10,Maine,_____________________________ 21 10 1, 0.3, 7.0, 7.38, 7.69 11,Denver,____________________________ 18 12 2, 0.2, 7.2, 7.38, 7.48 12,Boston College,____________________ 19 9 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.37, 6.98 13,Cornell,___________________________ 17 6 4, 0.4, 6.9, 7.33, 7.12 14,Alaska-Fairbanks,__________________ 14 13 5, 0.0, 7.3, 7.30, 7.43 15,St. Cloud State,___________________ 17 12 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.30, 6.99 16,Northern Michigan,_________________ 18 14 2, 0.1, 7.2, 7.27, 7.39 17,Lake Superior,_____________________ 15 11 6, 0.1, 7.1, 7.26, 6.97 18,Ohio State,________________________ 15 15 5, 0.0, 7.2, 7.25, 7.04 19,Vermont,___________________________ 18 10 4, 0.3, 7.0, 7.25, 6.95 20,New Hampshire,_____________________ 16 11 5, 0.2, 7.0, 7.20, 7.44 21,Harvard,___________________________ 15 10 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.20, 7.24 22,Ferris State,______________________ 14 13 7, 0.0, 7.2, 7.19, 6.70 23,Providence,________________________ 16 12 2, 0.1, 7.1, 7.19, 6.92 24,St. Lawrence,______________________ 18 12 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.16, 7.30 25,Colgate,___________________________ 16 10 6, 0.2, 6.9, 7.13, 6.76 26,Notre Dame,________________________ 12 16 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.12, 7.57 27,Minnesota State,___________________ 14 16 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.10, 7.04 28,Dartmouth,_________________________ 14 11 2, 0.1, 7.0, 7.08, 7.31 29,Clarkson,__________________________ 16 13 3, 0.1, 6.9, 7.02, 7.28 30,Bemidji State,_____________________ 16 11 3, 0.2, 6.8, 7.00, 6.89 31,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 19 2, -0.2, 7.2, 6.98, 6.59 32,Holy Cross,________________________ 21 7 2, 0.5, 6.5, 6.98, 6.86 33,Union,_____________________________ 16 12 6, 0.1, 6.8, 6.96, 7.13 34,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 16 10 2, 0.2, 6.7, 6.93, 6.63 35,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 9 19 4, -0.3, 7.2, 6.90, 6.86 36,Massachusetts,_____________________ 12 18 0, -0.2, 7.1, 6.89, 6.99 37,Niagara,___________________________ 15 14 1, 0.0, 6.8, 6.88, 6.37 38,Rensselaer,________________________ 13 14 6, -0.0, 6.9, 6.88, 7.15 39,Quinnipiac,________________________ 16 15 1, 0.0, 6.8, 6.87, 7.42 40,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 7 20 5, -0.4, 7.2, 6.84, 7.38 41,Mass.-Lowell,______________________ 11 17 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.84, 6.37 42,Western Michigan,__________________ 7 22 5, -0.4, 7.2, 6.77, 6.81 43,Princeton,_________________________ 9 16 2, -0.3, 7.0, 6.77, 6.63 44,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 6 23 3, -0.5, 7.3, 6.77, 6.39 45,Mercyhurst,________________________ 18 11 1, 0.2, 6.5, 6.77, 6.99 46,Sacred Heart,______________________ 18 10 2, 0.3, 6.5, 6.76, 6.76 47,Yale,______________________________ 8 16 3, -0.3, 7.0, 6.69, 6.25 48,Northeastern,______________________ 3 21 6, -0.6, 7.1, 6.55, 6.95 49,Wayne State,_______________________ 6 18 6, -0.4, 6.9, 6.53, 6.40 50,Merrimack,_________________________ 5 20 5, -0.5, 7.0, 6.49, 6.52 51,Robert Morris,_____________________ 9 17 3, -0.3, 6.8, 6.49, 6.70 52,Brown,_____________________________ 3 18 6, -0.6, 7.0, 6.47, 6.22 53,Air Force,_________________________ 9 17 1, -0.3, 6.8, 6.45, 7.35 54,Army,______________________________ 10 15 6, -0.2, 6.6, 6.43, 6.27 55,Bentley,___________________________ 11 14 5, -0.1, 6.5, 6.42, 6.40 56,Connecticut,_______________________ 9 19 2, -0.3, 6.5, 6.21, 6.35 57,Canisius,__________________________ 9 20 1, -0.4, 6.5, 6.18, 6.40 58,RIT,_______________________________ 4 21 2, -0.6, 6.8, 6.13, 5.81 59,American Int'l,____________________ 5 18 4, -0.5, 6.6, 6.10, 6.27 Link to the 2004-2005 Final Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed below. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Note that the current spread between #1 and #59 is about 1.9 . Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: CT IA IL IN MA MD MD-VA ME MI MN MN-WI-ND MO ND Northeast NH NJ NY WNY Club OH PA-E PA-W RI VA VT WI wWI USA New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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