Scores (sorted by team) through December 1, 2006 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Week's Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,New Hampshire,_____________________ 10 2 1, 2.5, 7.7, 10.16, 10.37 2,Minnesota,_________________________ 13 1 3, 2.2, 7.9, 10.11, 9.76 3,St Cloud State,____________________ 8 3 3, 1.4, 8.5, 9.86, 11.43 4,Maine,_____________________________ 9 3 1, 1.6, 7.8, 9.37, 7.70 5,Notre Dame,________________________ 11 3 1, 2.2, 6.9, 9.13, 8.79 6,Colorado College,__________________ 10 5 1, 0.8, 8.1, 8.95, 9.79 7,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 6 6 2, 0.4, 8.5, 8.83, 8.42 8,Vermont,___________________________ 9 4 1, 1.2, 7.6, 8.83, 9.10 9,North Dakota,______________________ 7 6 1, 0.2, 8.4, 8.66, 7.92 10,Clarkson,__________________________ 10 5 1, 1.1, 7.3, 8.41, 8.54 11,Miami,_____________________________ 13 5 0, 1.3, 7.0, 8.31, 8.55 12,Michigan,__________________________ 12 5 0, 0.9, 7.3, 8.16, 6.66 13,Denver,____________________________ 9 6 1, 0.3, 7.9, 8.16, 7.51 14,Massachusetts,_____________________ 7 3 2, 0.9, 7.2, 8.11, 7.88 15,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 4 8 3, -0.5, 8.5, 8.04, 8.22 16,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 6 7 4, 0.5, 7.5, 8.02, 8.70 17,Alaska,____________________________ 6 3 4, 0.7, 7.3, 8.01, 7.58 18,Wisconsin,_________________________ 5 9 2, -0.3, 8.3, 7.99, 8.30 19,Michigan State,____________________ 7 7 1, 0.4, 7.5, 7.95, 7.32 20,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 7 5 2, 0.0, 7.9, 7.91, 8.75 21,Boston College,____________________ 8 4 1, 0.2, 7.7, 7.91, 8.20 22,Boston University,_________________ 5 3 5, 0.3, 7.5, 7.85, 7.63 23,Quinnipiac,________________________ 7 4 3, 0.9, 6.8, 7.67, 7.56 24,Northeastern,______________________ 4 8 2, -0.2, 7.8, 7.60, 7.31 25,Dartmouth,_________________________ 5 3 2, 0.3, 7.3, 7.58, 6.93 26,Northern Michigan,_________________ 7 8 2, -0.2, 7.7, 7.57, 6.58 27,Cornell,___________________________ 8 3 1, 1.2, 6.2, 7.40, 6.71 28,Minnesota State,___________________ 3 10 2, -1.3, 8.6, 7.34, 7.43 29,Lake Superior,_____________________ 10 5 1, 0.8, 6.5, 7.31, 8.21 30,St Lawrence,_______________________ 8 5 0, 0.5, 6.7, 7.23, 7.70 31,Ohio State,________________________ 5 8 3, -0.4, 7.5, 7.17, 7.05 32,Mass-Lowell,_______________________ 3 7 3, -0.7, 7.8, 7.15, 6.39 33,Harvard,___________________________ 3 9 0, -0.6, 7.4, 6.85, 6.44 34,Yale,______________________________ 6 4 1, -0.1, 6.9, 6.83, 6.17 35,Colgate,___________________________ 7 8 2, 0.1, 6.7, 6.77, 7.49 36,Brown,_____________________________ 5 4 2, 0.5, 6.2, 6.74, 7.26 37,Rensselaer,________________________ 4 4 5, -0.2, 6.8, 6.63, 5.79 38,Western Michigan,__________________ 6 7 1, -0.6, 7.2, 6.63, 6.30 39,RIT,_______________________________ 6 5 2, 1.1, 5.5, 6.55, 6.96 40,Providence,________________________ 4 10 1, -1.1, 7.6, 6.44, 7.34 41,Niagara,___________________________ 8 6 3, -0.1, 6.3, 6.14, 6.67 42,Air Force,_________________________ 8 7 3, 0.3, 5.8, 6.12, 5.90 43,Ferris State,______________________ 4 10 1, -0.9, 7.0, 6.05, 6.31 44,Princeton,_________________________ 3 7 2, -0.3, 6.3, 6.03, 6.22 45,Bemidji State,_____________________ 5 4 3, -0.5, 6.4, 5.93, 6.55 46,Union,_____________________________ 5 5 2, -1.3, 6.8, 5.51, 5.77 47,Sacred Heart,______________________ 9 4 4, 0.3, 5.2, 5.49, 4.59 48,Holy Cross,________________________ 7 8 1, 0.2, 5.1, 5.32, 4.84 49,Merrimack,_________________________ 1 12 1, -2.7, 7.7, 5.03, 4.96 50,Bentley,___________________________ 7 5 1, -0.4, 5.4, 5.03, 6.11 51,Bowling Green,_____________________ 3 12 1, -2.4, 7.4, 4.96, 3.57 52,Wayne State,_______________________ 3 12 0, -2.0, 6.9, 4.88, 5.60 53,Robert Morris,_____________________ 4 8 0, -1.5, 6.2, 4.71, 3.42 54,Army,______________________________ 6 6 2, -0.2, 4.8, 4.56, 3.33 55,Mercyhurst,________________________ 4 8 3, -0.4, 4.9, 4.50, 5.35 56,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 4 9 1, -1.4, 5.9, 4.46, 5.52 57,Canisius,__________________________ 3 11 1, -1.4, 5.8, 4.44, 5.23 58,Connecticut,_______________________ 4 10 0, -1.3, 5.4, 4.08, 4.25 59,American Int'l,____________________ 1 13 0, -3.0, 5.6, 2.64, 3.00 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Minnesota,_________________________ 13 1 3, 0.7, 7.2, 7.90, 7.94 2,New Hampshire,_____________________ 10 2 1, 0.6, 7.2, 7.78, 7.91 3,St Cloud State,____________________ 8 3 3, 0.4, 7.4, 7.74, 8.28 4,Maine,_____________________________ 9 3 1, 0.5, 7.3, 7.72, 7.06 5,Colorado College,__________________ 10 5 1, 0.3, 7.3, 7.60, 7.95 6,Vermont,___________________________ 9 4 1, 0.4, 7.1, 7.49, 8.01 7,Notre Dame,________________________ 11 3 1, 0.5, 6.9, 7.48, 7.36 8,North Dakota,______________________ 7 6 1, 0.1, 7.4, 7.46, 7.11 9,Miami,_____________________________ 13 5 0, 0.4, 7.0, 7.43, 7.58 10,Michigan,__________________________ 12 5 0, 0.4, 7.0, 7.42, 7.40 11,Massachusetts,_____________________ 7 3 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.41, 6.97 12,Denver,____________________________ 9 6 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.41, 7.18 13,Boston College,____________________ 8 4 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.40, 7.62 14,Clarkson,__________________________ 10 5 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.40, 7.74 15,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 6 6 2, 0.0, 7.4, 7.39, 7.08 16,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 7 5 2, 0.1, 7.2, 7.30, 7.43 17,Alaska,____________________________ 6 3 4, 0.2, 7.0, 7.28, 7.01 18,Boston University,_________________ 5 3 5, 0.2, 7.1, 7.26, 7.47 19,Dartmouth,_________________________ 5 3 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.26, 7.20 20,Quinnipiac,________________________ 7 4 3, 0.2, 7.0, 7.24, 7.04 21,Cornell,___________________________ 8 3 1, 0.4, 6.8, 7.23, 6.82 22,Lake Superior,_____________________ 10 5 1, 0.3, 6.9, 7.18, 7.44 23,Michigan State,____________________ 7 7 1, 0.0, 7.1, 7.14, 6.67 24,St Lawrence,_______________________ 8 5 0, 0.2, 6.9, 7.13, 7.24 25,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 6 7 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.13, 7.41 26,Wisconsin,_________________________ 5 9 2, -0.3, 7.4, 7.12, 6.95 27,Yale,______________________________ 6 4 1, 0.2, 6.9, 7.12, 6.51 28,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 4 8 3, -0.3, 7.4, 7.11, 7.24 29,Northern Michigan,_________________ 7 8 2, -0.1, 7.2, 7.10, 6.46 30,Bemidji State,_____________________ 5 4 3, 0.1, 7.0, 7.05, 7.31 31,Niagara,___________________________ 8 6 3, 0.1, 6.9, 7.02, 7.29 32,Minnesota State,___________________ 3 10 2, -0.5, 7.5, 7.01, 7.02 33,Rensselaer,________________________ 4 4 5, 0.0, 7.0, 7.00, 6.38 34,Northeastern,______________________ 4 8 2, -0.3, 7.3, 6.97, 6.94 35,Ohio State,________________________ 5 8 3, -0.2, 7.2, 6.96, 6.95 36,Western Michigan,__________________ 6 7 1, -0.1, 7.0, 6.92, 6.93 37,Colgate,___________________________ 7 8 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.91, 7.49 38,Union,_____________________________ 5 5 2, 0.0, 6.9, 6.91, 7.11 39,Mass-Lowell,_______________________ 3 7 3, -0.3, 7.2, 6.89, 6.50 40,Brown,_____________________________ 5 4 2, 0.1, 6.8, 6.85, 7.06 41,Sacred Heart,______________________ 9 4 4, 0.3, 6.5, 6.75, 6.45 42,Providence,________________________ 4 10 1, -0.4, 7.1, 6.75, 6.94 43,Air Force,_________________________ 8 7 3, 0.1, 6.7, 6.74, 6.85 44,RIT,_______________________________ 6 5 2, 0.1, 6.6, 6.68, 6.96 45,Harvard,___________________________ 3 9 0, -0.5, 7.2, 6.65, 6.53 46,Bentley,___________________________ 7 5 1, 0.2, 6.5, 6.64, 7.02 47,Ferris State,______________________ 4 10 1, -0.4, 7.0, 6.62, 6.72 48,Robert Morris,_____________________ 4 8 0, -0.3, 6.9, 6.58, 6.20 49,Princeton,_________________________ 3 7 2, -0.3, 6.9, 6.55, 6.73 50,Bowling Green,_____________________ 3 12 1, -0.6, 7.1, 6.54, 6.15 51,Wayne State,_______________________ 3 12 0, -0.6, 7.1, 6.47, 6.55 52,Army,______________________________ 6 6 2, 0.0, 6.4, 6.42, 5.81 53,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 4 9 1, -0.4, 6.8, 6.41, 6.46 54,Merrimack,_________________________ 1 12 1, -0.8, 7.2, 6.38, 6.24 55,Holy Cross,________________________ 7 8 1, -0.1, 6.4, 6.38, 5.95 56,Connecticut,_______________________ 4 10 0, -0.4, 6.6, 6.18, 6.28 57,Canisius,__________________________ 3 11 1, -0.5, 6.7, 6.15, 6.45 58,Mercyhurst,________________________ 4 8 3, -0.3, 6.4, 6.10, 6.47 59,American Int'l,____________________ 1 13 0, -0.9, 6.6, 5.75, 5.91 Link to the 2005-2006 Final Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Note that the current spread between #1 and #59 is about 1.9 . Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: CT IA IL IN MA MD MD-VA ME MI MN MN-WI-ND MO ND Northeast NH NJ NY WNY Club OH PA-E PA-W RI VA VT WI wWI USA New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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