Scores (sorted by team) through February 9, 2014 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Boston College,____________________ 21 4 3, 1.7, 7.2, 8.93, 9.12 2,Minnesota,_________________________ 19 4 5, 1.4, 7.5, 8.83, 7.27 3,Quinnipiac,________________________ 20 5 5, 1.5, 7.0, 8.46, 8.12 4,Union,_____________________________ 19 6 3, 1.1, 7.1, 8.25, 7.71 5,Notre Dame,________________________ 16 12 1, 0.8, 7.4, 8.17, 7.62 6,Massachusetts-Lowell,______________ 19 7 3, 1.0, 7.1, 8.14, 9.34 7,Maine,_____________________________ 13 10 3, 0.7, 7.4, 8.13, 7.66 8,Vermont,___________________________ 15 9 3, 0.7, 7.4, 8.09, 9.23 9,Ferris State,______________________ 20 6 3, 1.1, 7.0, 8.03, 8.32 10,New Hampshire,_____________________ 16 15 1, 0.4, 7.6, 8.00, 7.93 11,Providence,________________________ 15 7 5, 0.7, 7.2, 7.93, 7.31 12,St Cloud State,____________________ 15 6 5, 0.7, 7.2, 7.90, 8.18 13,Northeastern,______________________ 16 9 3, 0.5, 7.3, 7.82, 7.49 14,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 13 9 4, 0.3, 7.5, 7.81, 8.45 15,Yale,______________________________ 12 7 4, 0.8, 7.0, 7.80, 8.56 16,Ohio State,________________________ 14 9 3, 0.8, 7.0, 7.75, 8.52 17,Wisconsin,_________________________ 16 8 2, 0.5, 7.2, 7.74, 7.77 18,Michigan,__________________________ 14 7 3, 0.5, 7.3, 7.73, 7.86 19,Cornell,___________________________ 12 5 5, 0.4, 7.2, 7.65, 7.15 20,Western Michigan,__________________ 14 10 4, 0.3, 7.3, 7.55, 7.68 21,Denver,____________________________ 13 9 6, 0.4, 7.1, 7.50, 7.44 22,Miami,_____________________________ 10 13 3, 0.2, 7.3, 7.45, 5.54 23,Colgate,___________________________ 14 11 3, 0.0, 7.4, 7.44, 7.99 24,Minnesota State,___________________ 17 13 0, 0.3, 7.1, 7.38, 7.64 25,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 12 5, 0.3, 7.0, 7.33, 6.68 26,North Dakota,______________________ 14 9 3, 0.0, 7.3, 7.30, 7.26 27,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 11 13 2, -0.1, 7.4, 7.26, 8.57 28,Rensselaer,________________________ 12 12 4, 0.1, 7.2, 7.24, 7.71 29,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 12 14 6, 0.0, 7.2, 7.22, 8.00 30,Brown,_____________________________ 9 11 3, -0.2, 7.4, 7.20, 6.48 31,St Lawrence,_______________________ 11 14 3, -0.2, 7.4, 7.15, 7.60 32,Clarkson,__________________________ 17 11 2, 0.1, 7.0, 7.15, 7.24 33,Alaska,____________________________ 12 12 4, 0.1, 6.9, 7.09, 7.55 34,Harvard,___________________________ 7 12 3, -0.3, 7.4, 7.03, 6.46 35,Michigan State,____________________ 8 13 6, -0.2, 7.2, 7.02, 7.38 36,Massachusetts,_____________________ 8 17 4, -0.7, 7.6, 6.98, 7.75 37,Lake Superior,_____________________ 13 14 1, -0.3, 7.3, 6.95, 6.34 38,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 14 11 3, 0.1, 6.9, 6.93, 7.27 39,Northern Michigan,_________________ 11 15 2, -0.3, 7.2, 6.89, 5.95 40,Bemidji State,_____________________ 8 15 7, -0.4, 7.2, 6.77, 6.25 41,Bentley,___________________________ 14 10 4, 0.6, 6.1, 6.70, 5.90 42,Boston University,_________________ 8 15 4, -0.8, 7.5, 6.67, 7.25 43,Merrimack,_________________________ 7 16 3, -0.9, 7.5, 6.56, 5.44 44,Air Force,_________________________ 17 9 4, 0.5, 6.0, 6.49, 6.60 45,Mercyhurst,________________________ 15 12 5, 0.2, 6.2, 6.40, 5.61 46,Colorado College,__________________ 3 18 5, -1.4, 7.6, 6.17, 6.49 47,Dartmouth,_________________________ 4 16 3, -1.2, 7.3, 6.17, 5.80 48,Robert Morris,_____________________ 11 13 4, 0.2, 5.9, 6.08, 7.31 49,Connecticut,_______________________ 14 9 4, 0.1, 5.9, 6.06, 6.44 50,Penn State,________________________ 5 18 1, -1.4, 7.3, 5.89, 6.38 51,Niagara,___________________________ 9 15 4, -0.3, 6.0, 5.72, 6.69 52,Canisius,__________________________ 10 15 3, -0.4, 6.1, 5.68, 5.89 53,Princeton,_________________________ 4 19 0, -1.8, 7.4, 5.61, 4.95 54,Holy Cross,________________________ 8 17 3, -0.7, 6.3, 5.58, 5.59 55,RIT,_______________________________ 8 15 5, -0.8, 5.9, 5.16, 3.81 56,American International,____________ 9 18 1, -1.3, 6.1, 4.82, 5.03 57,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 1 28 1, -2.8, 7.4, 4.66, 3.51 58,Sacred Heart,______________________ 8 20 0, -1.5, 6.0, 4.46, 4.22 59,Army,______________________________ 3 22 0, -2.0, 5.9, 3.86, 3.59 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Minnesota,_________________________ 19 4 5, 0.5, 7.2, 7.70, 6.99 2,Boston College,____________________ 21 4 3, 0.6, 7.0, 7.65, 7.88 3,Union,_____________________________ 19 6 3, 0.5, 7.0, 7.49, 7.31 4,Ferris State,______________________ 20 6 3, 0.5, 7.0, 7.49, 7.25 5,Quinnipiac,________________________ 20 5 5, 0.5, 7.0, 7.46, 7.09 6,St Cloud State,____________________ 15 6 5, 0.3, 7.1, 7.45, 7.55 7,Massachusetts-Lowell,______________ 19 7 3, 0.4, 7.0, 7.42, 7.74 8,Wisconsin,_________________________ 16 8 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.40, 7.46 9,Cornell,___________________________ 12 5 5, 0.3, 7.1, 7.38, 7.55 10,Michigan,__________________________ 14 7 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.37, 7.37 11,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 13 9 4, 0.2, 7.2, 7.34, 7.70 12,Providence,________________________ 15 7 5, 0.3, 7.0, 7.33, 7.16 13,Vermont,___________________________ 15 9 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.33, 7.71 14,Northeastern,______________________ 16 9 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.30, 6.93 15,North Dakota,______________________ 14 9 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.28, 7.29 16,Notre Dame,________________________ 16 12 1, 0.1, 7.1, 7.27, 7.04 17,Colgate,___________________________ 14 11 3, 0.1, 7.2, 7.26, 7.38 18,Western Michigan,__________________ 14 10 4, 0.1, 7.1, 7.25, 7.43 19,New Hampshire,_____________________ 16 15 1, 0.0, 7.2, 7.23, 7.08 20,Maine,_____________________________ 13 10 3, 0.1, 7.1, 7.21, 7.13 21,Yale,______________________________ 12 7 4, 0.2, 7.0, 7.21, 7.45 22,Minnesota State,___________________ 17 13 0, 0.1, 7.1, 7.21, 7.24 23,Clarkson,__________________________ 17 11 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.20, 6.97 24,Denver,____________________________ 13 9 6, 0.1, 7.1, 7.20, 7.16 25,Ohio State,________________________ 14 9 3, 0.2, 7.0, 7.16, 7.47 26,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 14 11 3, 0.1, 7.0, 7.10, 7.08 27,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 12 5, 0.0, 7.1, 7.09, 6.64 28,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 11 13 2, -0.1, 7.2, 7.08, 7.50 29,Lake Superior,_____________________ 13 14 1, -0.0, 7.1, 7.07, 6.93 30,Rensselaer,________________________ 12 12 4, 0.0, 7.1, 7.06, 7.40 31,Brown,_____________________________ 9 11 3, -0.1, 7.1, 7.04, 6.68 32,St Lawrence,_______________________ 11 14 3, -0.1, 7.1, 7.04, 7.35 33,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 12 14 6, -0.1, 7.1, 7.03, 7.44 34,Alaska,____________________________ 12 12 4, 0.0, 7.0, 7.02, 7.27 35,Miami,_____________________________ 10 13 3, -0.1, 7.1, 7.00, 6.38 36,Northern Michigan,_________________ 11 15 2, -0.1, 7.1, 6.98, 6.70 37,Michigan State,____________________ 8 13 6, -0.2, 7.1, 6.90, 7.02 38,Air Force,_________________________ 17 9 4, 0.3, 6.6, 6.90, 6.95 39,Bemidji State,_____________________ 8 15 7, -0.2, 7.1, 6.89, 6.55 40,Boston University,_________________ 8 15 4, -0.3, 7.2, 6.89, 7.12 41,Harvard,___________________________ 7 12 3, -0.2, 7.1, 6.88, 6.82 42,Massachusetts,_____________________ 8 17 4, -0.3, 7.2, 6.87, 7.05 43,Merrimack,_________________________ 7 16 3, -0.3, 7.2, 6.81, 6.65 44,Connecticut,_______________________ 14 9 4, 0.2, 6.6, 6.81, 6.95 45,Mercyhurst,________________________ 15 12 5, 0.1, 6.7, 6.80, 6.38 46,Bentley,___________________________ 14 10 4, 0.1, 6.7, 6.80, 6.73 47,Colorado College,__________________ 3 18 5, -0.6, 7.2, 6.66, 6.80 48,Dartmouth,_________________________ 4 16 3, -0.5, 7.1, 6.58, 6.65 49,Penn State,________________________ 5 18 1, -0.5, 7.1, 6.58, 6.74 50,Robert Morris,_____________________ 11 13 4, -0.1, 6.6, 6.54, 7.07 51,Canisius,__________________________ 10 15 3, -0.2, 6.7, 6.48, 6.47 52,Princeton,_________________________ 4 19 0, -0.7, 7.1, 6.46, 6.04 53,Niagara,___________________________ 9 15 4, -0.2, 6.7, 6.44, 6.75 54,Holy Cross,________________________ 8 17 3, -0.3, 6.7, 6.40, 6.39 55,RIT,_______________________________ 8 15 5, -0.3, 6.6, 6.38, 5.86 56,American International,____________ 9 18 1, -0.3, 6.7, 6.33, 6.49 57,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 1 28 1, -0.9, 7.2, 6.28, 6.04 58,Sacred Heart,______________________ 8 20 0, -0.4, 6.6, 6.19, 6.32 59,Army,______________________________ 3 22 0, -0.8, 6.6, 5.84, 5.42 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 4. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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