Scores (sorted by team) through February 16, 2014 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Boston College,____________________ 24 4 3, 1.7, 7.3, 9.01, 9.79 2,Minnesota,_________________________ 21 4 5, 1.4, 7.5, 8.93, 8.33 3,Quinnipiac,________________________ 21 6 5, 1.5, 7.0, 8.50, 8.69 4,Union,_____________________________ 20 6 4, 1.2, 7.2, 8.34, 8.76 5,Notre Dame,________________________ 17 12 2, 0.8, 7.4, 8.18, 7.93 6,Massachusetts-Lowell,______________ 20 7 3, 1.0, 7.1, 8.09, 8.52 7,Maine,_____________________________ 15 10 3, 0.8, 7.3, 8.07, 8.30 8,Vermont,___________________________ 15 11 3, 0.5, 7.5, 8.03, 9.11 9,Ferris State,______________________ 21 7 3, 1.1, 6.9, 8.01, 8.92 10,St Cloud State,____________________ 17 6 5, 0.8, 7.3, 8.01, 8.15 11,New Hampshire,_____________________ 17 15 1, 0.4, 7.6, 7.99, 8.20 12,Wisconsin,_________________________ 17 9 2, 0.5, 7.2, 7.77, 8.76 13,Providence,________________________ 15 9 6, 0.5, 7.2, 7.75, 5.93 14,Northeastern,______________________ 17 10 3, 0.4, 7.3, 7.74, 6.87 15,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 13 11 4, 0.2, 7.5, 7.72, 7.20 16,Yale,______________________________ 13 8 4, 0.7, 7.0, 7.69, 7.49 17,Ohio State,________________________ 15 10 3, 0.7, 7.0, 7.69, 7.47 18,Michigan,__________________________ 14 9 3, 0.2, 7.3, 7.58, 6.49 19,Denver,____________________________ 14 10 6, 0.4, 7.1, 7.53, 7.99 20,Minnesota State,___________________ 19 13 0, 0.5, 7.0, 7.50, 9.17 21,Cornell,___________________________ 12 7 5, 0.2, 7.3, 7.46, 6.22 22,North Dakota,______________________ 16 9 3, 0.2, 7.2, 7.46, 7.51 23,Colgate,___________________________ 14 11 5, 0.0, 7.4, 7.45, 7.22 24,Rensselaer,________________________ 13 12 5, 0.1, 7.2, 7.38, 8.38 25,Western Michigan,__________________ 14 11 5, 0.1, 7.2, 7.36, 6.78 26,Alaska,____________________________ 14 12 4, 0.4, 7.0, 7.35, 8.39 27,Miami,_____________________________ 10 15 3, 0.0, 7.3, 7.27, 6.19 28,Harvard,___________________________ 9 12 4, -0.1, 7.3, 7.24, 7.77 29,Brown,_____________________________ 10 12 3, -0.1, 7.4, 7.24, 6.69 30,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 12 14 2, -0.1, 7.4, 7.23, 8.00 31,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 13 6, 0.2, 7.0, 7.21, 6.38 32,St Lawrence,_______________________ 11 15 4, -0.3, 7.3, 7.06, 7.48 33,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 15 11 4, 0.2, 6.9, 7.05, 8.24 34,Northern Michigan,_________________ 12 16 2, -0.2, 7.2, 6.99, 6.06 35,Clarkson,__________________________ 17 13 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.98, 5.67 36,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 12 16 6, -0.2, 7.2, 6.97, 6.22 37,Massachusetts,_____________________ 8 19 4, -0.7, 7.6, 6.96, 7.45 38,Michigan State,____________________ 9 13 7, -0.2, 7.1, 6.94, 7.23 39,Lake Superior,_____________________ 14 15 1, -0.4, 7.3, 6.89, 5.66 40,Bemidji State,_____________________ 9 16 7, -0.5, 7.3, 6.83, 7.27 41,Bentley,___________________________ 16 10 4, 0.7, 6.0, 6.69, 5.74 42,Merrimack,_________________________ 7 18 3, -0.9, 7.5, 6.57, 5.87 43,Boston University,_________________ 8 17 4, -0.9, 7.5, 6.57, 6.46 44,Mercyhurst,________________________ 17 12 5, 0.4, 6.1, 6.54, 7.11 45,Dartmouth,_________________________ 6 16 3, -0.8, 7.3, 6.50, 7.31 46,Air Force,_________________________ 18 10 4, 0.4, 6.0, 6.42, 6.97 47,Colorado College,__________________ 4 18 6, -1.2, 7.5, 6.32, 7.08 48,Connecticut,_______________________ 16 10 4, 0.2, 6.0, 6.19, 7.05 49,Robert Morris,_____________________ 12 14 4, 0.3, 5.8, 6.10, 6.65 50,Penn State,________________________ 5 19 2, -1.3, 7.3, 5.92, 6.54 51,Canisius,__________________________ 11 16 3, -0.3, 6.1, 5.79, 5.39 52,Princeton,_________________________ 5 20 0, -1.7, 7.5, 5.76, 5.49 53,Niagara,___________________________ 10 16 4, -0.3, 6.0, 5.66, 6.26 54,Holy Cross,________________________ 9 18 3, -0.7, 6.3, 5.55, 5.67 55,RIT,_______________________________ 8 17 5, -1.0, 6.0, 5.01, 3.57 56,American International,____________ 10 19 1, -1.2, 6.0, 4.79, 5.31 57,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 1 30 1, -2.8, 7.4, 4.60, 3.46 58,Sacred Heart,______________________ 9 21 0, -1.4, 5.9, 4.49, 4.27 59,Army,______________________________ 3 24 0, -2.0, 5.9, 3.89, 4.01 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Minnesota,_________________________ 21 4 5, 0.6, 7.2, 7.75, 7.46 2,Boston College,____________________ 24 4 3, 0.6, 7.1, 7.70, 8.09 3,Union,_____________________________ 20 6 4, 0.5, 7.1, 7.53, 7.98 4,St Cloud State,____________________ 17 6 5, 0.4, 7.1, 7.51, 7.61 5,Quinnipiac,________________________ 21 6 5, 0.5, 7.0, 7.45, 7.21 6,Ferris State,______________________ 21 7 3, 0.5, 7.0, 7.45, 7.57 7,Massachusetts-Lowell,______________ 20 7 3, 0.4, 7.0, 7.42, 7.60 8,Wisconsin,_________________________ 17 9 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.39, 7.83 9,North Dakota,______________________ 16 9 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.32, 7.25 10,Michigan,__________________________ 14 9 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.31, 6.80 11,Cornell,___________________________ 12 7 5, 0.2, 7.1, 7.30, 7.03 12,Northeastern,______________________ 17 10 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.29, 6.93 13,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 13 11 4, 0.1, 7.2, 7.29, 7.13 14,Notre Dame,________________________ 17 12 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.29, 7.24 15,Vermont,___________________________ 15 11 3, 0.1, 7.1, 7.28, 7.55 16,Colgate,___________________________ 14 11 5, 0.1, 7.2, 7.26, 7.04 17,New Hampshire,_____________________ 17 15 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.25, 7.40 18,Providence,________________________ 15 9 6, 0.2, 7.0, 7.24, 6.50 19,Maine,_____________________________ 15 10 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.24, 7.67 20,Minnesota State,___________________ 19 13 0, 0.2, 7.0, 7.22, 7.69 21,Yale,______________________________ 13 8 4, 0.2, 7.0, 7.20, 7.38 22,Denver,____________________________ 14 10 6, 0.1, 7.1, 7.19, 7.30 23,Western Michigan,__________________ 14 11 5, 0.1, 7.1, 7.18, 6.92 24,Ohio State,________________________ 15 10 3, 0.2, 7.0, 7.17, 7.23 25,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 15 11 4, 0.1, 7.0, 7.13, 7.45 26,Rensselaer,________________________ 13 12 5, 0.0, 7.1, 7.13, 7.56 27,Clarkson,__________________________ 17 13 2, 0.1, 7.0, 7.12, 6.44 28,Alaska,____________________________ 14 12 4, 0.1, 7.0, 7.08, 7.29 29,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 12 14 2, -0.1, 7.2, 7.08, 7.51 30,Lake Superior,_____________________ 14 15 1, -0.0, 7.1, 7.06, 6.86 31,Bowling Green,_____________________ 13 13 6, 0.0, 7.1, 7.06, 6.65 32,Brown,_____________________________ 10 12 3, -0.1, 7.1, 7.04, 6.59 33,St Lawrence,_______________________ 11 15 4, -0.1, 7.1, 6.99, 6.96 34,Northern Michigan,_________________ 12 16 2, -0.1, 7.1, 6.99, 6.65 35,Harvard,___________________________ 9 12 4, -0.1, 7.1, 6.99, 7.39 36,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 12 16 6, -0.1, 7.1, 6.97, 6.96 37,Miami,_____________________________ 10 15 3, -0.2, 7.1, 6.95, 6.54 38,Bemidji State,_____________________ 9 16 7, -0.2, 7.2, 6.94, 7.08 39,Michigan State,____________________ 9 13 7, -0.1, 7.0, 6.90, 7.04 40,Air Force,_________________________ 18 10 4, 0.3, 6.6, 6.88, 7.31 41,Mercyhurst,________________________ 17 12 5, 0.1, 6.7, 6.84, 6.85 42,Boston University,_________________ 8 17 4, -0.3, 7.1, 6.84, 6.64 43,Massachusetts,_____________________ 8 19 4, -0.4, 7.2, 6.84, 6.85 44,Connecticut,_______________________ 16 10 4, 0.2, 6.6, 6.83, 6.95 45,Bentley,___________________________ 16 10 4, 0.2, 6.6, 6.81, 6.64 46,Merrimack,_________________________ 7 18 3, -0.4, 7.1, 6.75, 6.40 47,Dartmouth,_________________________ 6 16 3, -0.4, 7.1, 6.71, 7.22 48,Colorado College,__________________ 4 18 6, -0.5, 7.2, 6.71, 6.98 49,Penn State,________________________ 5 19 2, -0.5, 7.1, 6.56, 6.72 50,Princeton,_________________________ 5 20 0, -0.6, 7.1, 6.54, 6.41 51,Robert Morris,_____________________ 12 14 4, -0.1, 6.6, 6.53, 6.68 52,Canisius,__________________________ 11 16 3, -0.2, 6.7, 6.51, 6.19 53,Niagara,___________________________ 10 16 4, -0.2, 6.6, 6.44, 6.86 54,Holy Cross,________________________ 9 18 3, -0.3, 6.7, 6.43, 6.68 55,RIT,_______________________________ 8 17 5, -0.3, 6.6, 6.34, 5.84 56,American International,____________ 10 19 1, -0.3, 6.6, 6.32, 6.72 57,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 1 30 1, -0.9, 7.2, 6.28, 6.09 58,Sacred Heart,______________________ 9 21 0, -0.4, 6.6, 6.21, 6.19 59,Army,______________________________ 3 24 0, -0.8, 6.6, 5.84, 5.56 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 4. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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