Scores (sorted by team) through February 7, 2009 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below * - Indicates team rating based on only two scores RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 19 1 2, 2.8, 7.7, 10.50, 11.00 2,Wis-Superior,______________________ 19 2 3, 2.3, 8.1, 10.41, 11.09 3,Adrian,____________________________ 21 1 1, 4.0, 6.2, 10.26, 11.17 4,Elmira,____________________________ 14 5 2, 1.9, 8.3, 10.25, 10.93 5,St Norbert,________________________ 16 7 1, 1.7, 8.5, 10.20, 9.10 6,St Scholastica,____________________ 18 4 2, 1.8, 8.2, 9.97, 10.47 7,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 13 8 0, 1.1, 8.4, 9.54, 10.16 8,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 17 5 2, 1.5, 8.1, 9.53, 11.07 9,Hobart,____________________________ 17 4 0, 2.2, 7.3, 9.47, 11.07 10,Middlebury,________________________ 15 4 1, 2.0, 7.5, 9.46, 9.30 11,Oswego,____________________________ 15 5 1, 1.7, 7.8, 9.43, 9.07 12,St Olaf,___________________________ 14 6 1, 1.2, 8.1, 9.30, 10.24 13,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 13 10 1, 0.8, 8.4, 9.23, 8.54 14,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 14 8 2, 1.0, 8.2, 9.14, 8.71 15,St Thomas,_________________________ 11 8 2, 0.8, 8.4, 9.13, 10.14 16,Neumann,___________________________ 11 8 2, 0.9, 8.2, 9.06, 8.40 17,Manhattanville,____________________ 14 3 3, 1.9, 7.1, 9.03, 8.88 18,Norwich,___________________________ 11 6 3, 1.1, 7.9, 9.02, 9.74 19,Amherst,___________________________ 14 4 1, 1.8, 7.1, 8.90, 9.89 20,Hamline,___________________________ 12 8 1, 1.0, 7.6, 8.61, 8.41 21,Trinity,___________________________ 13 5 0, 1.7, 6.9, 8.58, 8.58 22,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 10 12 2, -0.1, 8.6, 8.44, 8.58 23,New England College,_______________ 13 7 1, 1.0, 7.1, 8.14, 7.48 24,Castleton,_________________________ 11 8 2, 0.5, 7.5, 7.96, 7.11 25,Buffalo State,_____________________ 8 10 4, 0.7, 7.2, 7.95, 6.63 26,Augsburg,__________________________ 7 14 0, -0.7, 8.6, 7.94, 9.23 27,Utica,_____________________________ 10 9 2, 0.8, 7.1, 7.93, 6.22 28,St John's,_________________________ 8 12 1, -0.5, 8.4, 7.88, 8.48 29,Babson,____________________________ 9 10 1, 0.6, 7.3, 7.80, 10.18 30,Conn College,______________________ 10 6 3, 0.3, 7.5, 7.80, 7.59 31,Curry,_____________________________ 14 4 2, 1.7, 6.1, 7.76, 7.58 32,Williams,__________________________ 12 6 2, 0.1, 7.5, 7.56, 7.70 33,Bowdoin,___________________________ 9 9 2, 0.7, 6.9, 7.52, 7.78 34,Potsdam,___________________________ 7 10 5, 0.2, 7.3, 7.49, 7.76 35,Geneseo,___________________________ 10 10 1, -0.1, 7.6, 7.47, 5.39 36,Wentworth,_________________________ 11 7 1, 1.8, 5.5, 7.37, 5.63 37,Skidmore,__________________________ 10 9 1, -0.2, 7.5, 7.33, 6.45 38,Salem State,_______________________ 11 7 2, 0.5, 6.9, 7.32, 7.63 39,Nichols,___________________________ 19 2 0, 2.0, 5.3, 7.25, 9.17 40,Hamilton,__________________________ 8 11 1, -0.3, 7.5, 7.18, 6.82 41,Brockport,_________________________ 12 6 3, 0.7, 6.3, 7.01, 7.72 42,Marian,____________________________ 11 9 3, 0.5, 6.5, 6.96, 5.30 43,Southern Maine,____________________ 10 10 1, -0.0, 7.0, 6.95, 7.53 44,Milw School of Eng,________________ 11 10 2, 0.3, 6.6, 6.93, 7.24 45,Bethel,____________________________ 10 12 1, -0.7, 7.7, 6.91, 5.00 46,Fredonia,__________________________ 4 12 5, -1.1, 8.0, 6.90, 6.44 47,Cortland,__________________________ 8 11 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.85, 9.28 48,Concordia MN,______________________ 3 18 2, -1.3, 7.9, 6.69, 5.56 49,Colby,_____________________________ 5 12 3, -0.7, 7.2, 6.54, 5.97 50,Lawrence,__________________________ 13 9 1, 0.3, 6.1, 6.40, 6.15 51,Lake Forest,_______________________ 5 17 2, -2.0, 8.3, 6.35, 5.71 52,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 7 12 2, -0.3, 6.6, 6.29, 6.42 53,Tufts,_____________________________ 8 10 1, -0.5, 6.8, 6.28, 7.00 54,Westfield State,___________________ 10 4 4, 1.9, 4.4, 6.27, 5.04 55,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 14 5 2, 1.0, 5.2, 6.21, 6.44 56,Finlandia,_________________________ 9 10 2, 0.1, 6.0, 6.10, 6.14 57,Wesleyan,__________________________ 2 15 1, -2.1, 7.9, 5.82, 4.48 58,St Anselm,_________________________ 7 11 1, -1.4, 7.1, 5.72, 5.18 59,St Michael's,______________________ 7 11 2, -1.2, 6.8, 5.58, 4.97 60,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 17 1, -2.0, 7.5, 5.48, 4.86 61,St Mary's,_________________________ 3 17 1, -3.3, 8.7, 5.39, 4.68 62,Fitchburg State,___________________ 8 8 5, 0.0, 5.2, 5.17, 3.91 63,Plymouth State,____________________ 9 10 2, -0.6, 5.5, 4.83, 5.89 64,Becker,____________________________ 10 12 0, -0.9, 5.6, 4.67, 5.49 65,Stonehill,_________________________ 5 9 0, -0.4, 4.7, 4.32, 4.62 66,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 8 9 2, -1.0, 5.0, 4.03, 5.06 67,So New Hampshire,__________________ 6 10 1, -0.7, 4.6, 3.94, 3.48 68,Worcester State,___________________ 4 11 3, -1.3, 5.2, 3.89, 3.56 69,Suffolk,___________________________ 6 13 2, -1.3, 5.1, 3.84, 4.12 70,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 3 21 0, -2.8, 6.6, 3.81, 2.85 71,Concordia WI,______________________ 4 18 1, -2.9, 6.7, 3.80, 4.54 72,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 0 21 0, -4.6, 8.2, 3.62, 3.17 73,Assumption,________________________ 5 12 4, -1.3, 4.5, 3.21, 3.71 74,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 5 13 2, -1.8, 4.9, 3.20, 2.14 75,Salve Regina,______________________ 2 16 2, -2.0, 5.1, 3.08, 1.97 76,Northland,_________________________ 1 21 1, -4.0, 7.1, 3.07, 3.85 77,Western NE College,________________ 2 16 1, -3.2, 5.8, 2.64, 4.07 78,Framingham State,__________________ 0 17 4, -3.5, 5.6, 2.08, 1.40 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 19 1 2, 0.8, 7.2, 7.98, 8.25 2,Wis-Superior,______________________ 19 2 3, 0.7, 7.1, 7.84, 7.93 3,Middlebury,________________________ 15 4 1, 0.6, 7.3, 7.81, 7.53 4,Elmira,____________________________ 14 5 2, 0.4, 7.3, 7.77, 7.77 5,St Scholastica,____________________ 18 4 2, 0.6, 7.2, 7.76, 7.84 6,Hobart,____________________________ 17 4 0, 0.6, 7.1, 7.68, 7.92 7,Amherst,___________________________ 14 4 1, 0.5, 7.1, 7.65, 8.13 8,Manhattanville,____________________ 14 3 3, 0.6, 7.1, 7.63, 7.24 9,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 17 5 2, 0.5, 7.1, 7.62, 8.18 10,St Norbert,________________________ 16 7 1, 0.4, 7.2, 7.62, 7.15 11,Oswego,____________________________ 15 5 1, 0.5, 7.1, 7.61, 7.86 12,Norwich,___________________________ 11 6 3, 0.3, 7.3, 7.59, 7.68 13,Adrian,____________________________ 21 1 1, 0.9, 6.7, 7.55, 7.67 14,Trinity,___________________________ 13 5 0, 0.4, 7.1, 7.54, 7.56 15,Williams,__________________________ 12 6 2, 0.3, 7.2, 7.53, 7.53 16,Nichols,___________________________ 19 2 0, 0.8, 6.7, 7.49, 7.63 17,St Olaf,___________________________ 14 6 1, 0.4, 7.1, 7.48, 7.82 18,Conn College,______________________ 10 6 3, 0.2, 7.3, 7.47, 7.45 19,New England College,_______________ 13 7 1, 0.3, 7.2, 7.46, 7.46 20,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 13 8 0, 0.2, 7.2, 7.45, 7.57 21,Neumann,___________________________ 11 8 2, 0.1, 7.3, 7.44, 7.15 22,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 14 8 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.40, 7.40 23,Castleton,_________________________ 11 8 2, 0.1, 7.2, 7.38, 7.65 24,Curry,_____________________________ 14 4 2, 0.5, 6.9, 7.37, 7.39 25,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 13 10 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.33, 6.81 26,St Thomas,_________________________ 11 8 2, 0.1, 7.2, 7.30, 7.38 27,Skidmore,__________________________ 10 9 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.30, 6.78 28,Salem State,_______________________ 11 7 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.25, 7.14 29,Hamline,___________________________ 12 8 1, 0.2, 7.0, 7.17, 6.84 30,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 10 12 2, -0.1, 7.2, 7.15, 7.36 31,Brockport,_________________________ 12 6 3, 0.3, 6.9, 7.15, 7.53 32,Geneseo,___________________________ 10 10 1, 0.0, 7.1, 7.12, 6.27 33,Babson,____________________________ 9 10 1, -0.1, 7.2, 7.11, 7.49 34,Utica,_____________________________ 10 9 2, 0.0, 7.1, 7.11, 6.97 35,Southern Maine,____________________ 10 10 1, 0.0, 7.1, 7.09, 7.47 36,Bowdoin,___________________________ 9 9 2, 0.0, 7.1, 7.08, 7.17 37,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 14 5 2, 0.4, 6.6, 7.05, 7.10 38,Hamilton,__________________________ 8 11 1, -0.2, 7.2, 7.03, 6.95 39,Tufts,_____________________________ 8 10 1, -0.1, 7.1, 6.99, 6.92 40,Wentworth,_________________________ 11 7 1, 0.2, 6.8, 6.97, 6.81 41,Buffalo State,_____________________ 8 10 4, -0.1, 7.1, 6.97, 6.83 42,St Anselm,_________________________ 7 11 1, -0.2, 7.2, 6.95, 7.12 43,Potsdam,___________________________ 7 10 5, -0.1, 7.1, 6.92, 7.13 44,St John's,_________________________ 8 12 1, -0.2, 7.1, 6.90, 7.51 45,St Michael's,______________________ 7 11 2, -0.2, 7.1, 6.89, 6.62 46,Augsburg,__________________________ 7 14 0, -0.3, 7.2, 6.87, 7.51 47,Bethel,____________________________ 10 12 1, -0.1, 7.0, 6.87, 6.46 48,Cortland,__________________________ 8 11 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.85, 7.26 49,Marian,____________________________ 11 9 3, 0.1, 6.7, 6.83, 6.45 50,Westfield State,___________________ 10 4 4, 0.3, 6.5, 6.83, 6.36 51,Milw School of Eng,________________ 11 10 2, 0.0, 6.8, 6.83, 7.01 52,Colby,_____________________________ 5 12 3, -0.4, 7.2, 6.82, 6.62 53,Lawrence,__________________________ 13 9 1, 0.2, 6.6, 6.82, 6.99 54,Fredonia,__________________________ 4 12 5, -0.4, 7.2, 6.80, 6.67 55,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 7 12 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.78, 6.64 56,Lake Forest,_______________________ 5 17 2, -0.5, 7.2, 6.70, 6.74 57,Plymouth State,____________________ 9 10 2, -0.0, 6.7, 6.68, 6.60 58,Becker,____________________________ 10 12 0, -0.1, 6.8, 6.68, 6.92 59,Fitchburg State,___________________ 8 8 5, 0.0, 6.7, 6.66, 6.44 60,Wesleyan,__________________________ 2 15 1, -0.7, 7.4, 6.66, 6.66 61,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 17 1, -0.5, 7.1, 6.63, 6.30 62,Finlandia,_________________________ 9 10 2, -0.0, 6.7, 6.61, 6.59 63,St Mary's,_________________________ 3 17 1, -0.7, 7.3, 6.59, 6.56 64,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 8 9 2, -0.1, 6.6, 6.53, 6.45 65,Concordia MN,______________________ 3 18 2, -0.7, 7.0, 6.39, 5.97 66,So New Hampshire,__________________ 6 10 1, -0.2, 6.6, 6.34, 6.17 67,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 0 21 0, -1.0, 7.3, 6.32, 6.50 68,Suffolk,___________________________ 6 13 2, -0.3, 6.6, 6.31, 6.40 69,Stonehill,_________________________ 5 9 0, -0.3, 6.6, 6.28, 6.48 70,Worcester State,___________________ 4 11 3, -0.4, 6.7, 6.28, 6.13 71,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 5 13 2, -0.4, 6.6, 6.23, 5.63 72,Concordia WI,______________________ 4 18 1, -0.6, 6.8, 6.18, 6.23 73,Assumption,________________________ 5 12 4, -0.3, 6.5, 6.17, 6.48 74,Northland,_________________________ 1 21 1, -0.9, 6.9, 6.04, 6.08 75,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 3 21 0, -0.8, 6.8, 6.02, 5.88 76,Western NE College,________________ 2 16 1, -0.7, 6.8, 6.02, 6.21 77,Framingham State,__________________ 0 17 4, -0.8, 6.8, 5.97, 5.80 78,Salve Regina,______________________ 2 16 2, -0.7, 6.6, 5.94, 5.63 Link to the 2005-2006 Final D1 Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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