Scores (sorted by team) through February 10, 2007 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Manhattanville,____________________ 18 0 4, 3.8, 8.1, 11.86, 11.96 2,Neumann,___________________________ 16 4 5, 2.1, 8.9, 10.99, 10.51 3,Oswego,____________________________ 19 2 3, 2.7, 8.1, 10.83, 10.13 4,Hobart,____________________________ 12 6 5, 1.3, 8.8, 10.05, 8.67 5,Norwich,___________________________ 17 6 0, 2.1, 7.9, 9.99, 10.64 6,St Norbert,________________________ 20 3 2, 2.8, 7.2, 9.97, 8.10 7,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 11 7 6, 1.5, 8.5, 9.94, 10.17 8,Utica,_____________________________ 12 7 3, 1.0, 8.9, 9.91, 10.42 9,Elmira,____________________________ 11 9 3, 0.4, 9.0, 9.39, 9.39 10,Geneseo,___________________________ 16 8 0, 0.8, 8.4, 9.25, 10.64 11,Colby,_____________________________ 12 7 2, 1.5, 7.7, 9.21, 9.01 12,Babson,____________________________ 14 8 1, 1.0, 8.1, 9.09, 10.43 13,Southern Maine,____________________ 14 7 2, 1.6, 7.5, 9.09, 9.92 14,Castleton,_________________________ 5 2 0, 1.7, 7.4, 9.07 15,Bowdoin,___________________________ 13 5 3, 1.6, 7.5, 9.06, 9.12 16,Castleton State,___________________ 10 3 3, 1.8, 7.1, 8.92, 10.13 17,Wis-Superior,______________________ 19 5 1, 1.8, 7.1, 8.91, 9.02 18,Fredonia,__________________________ 12 8 4, 0.8, 8.1, 8.87, 8.20 19,Middlebury,________________________ 12 7 3, 0.7, 8.1, 8.82, 8.43 20,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 19 4 2, 1.5, 7.2, 8.69, 8.30 21,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 19 4 2, 1.5, 7.2, 8.65, 8.67 22,New England College,_______________ 13 9 1, 0.8, 7.8, 8.58, 9.66 23,Amherst,___________________________ 13 7 1, 0.7, 7.8, 8.49, 7.43 24,Curry,_____________________________ 14 8 1, 1.9, 6.6, 8.47, 7.82 25,Trinity,___________________________ 8 10 4, 0.4, 7.9, 8.30, 9.01 26,Wesleyan,__________________________ 11 6 4, 0.6, 7.7, 8.27, 7.87 27,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 20 2 1, 3.0, 5.2, 8.22, 6.63 28,Skidmore,__________________________ 14 7 2, 0.6, 7.4, 8.04, 7.11 29,Bethel,____________________________ 12 8 1, 1.0, 6.8, 7.81, 9.28 30,St Anselm,_________________________ 7 8 3, -0.4, 8.1, 7.75, 8.28 31,Buffalo State,_____________________ 11 11 2, 0.1, 7.6, 7.71, 8.21 32,Conn College,______________________ 8 12 2, -0.5, 8.2, 7.69, 8.24 33,St Thomas,_________________________ 12 9 0, 0.6, 7.0, 7.61, 9.13 34,Williams,__________________________ 7 12 2, -0.9, 8.4, 7.51, 6.16 35,St Scholastica,____________________ 13 10 2, 0.4, 6.9, 7.33, 7.09 36,Brockport,_________________________ 6 11 7, -1.0, 8.1, 7.11, 6.26 37,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 9 12 4, -0.2, 7.3, 7.08, 7.23 38,Wentworth,_________________________ 13 7 3, 0.6, 6.5, 7.05, 8.68 39,Augsburg,__________________________ 8 9 4, -0.2, 7.3, 7.02, 6.59 40,Milw School of Eng,________________ 17 4 2, 2.0, 5.0, 7.00, 8.16 41,Cortland,__________________________ 8 13 3, -1.0, 7.9, 6.94, 7.65 42,Hamilton,__________________________ 6 15 1, -1.4, 8.2, 6.89, 7.31 43,Finlandia,_________________________ 15 7 0, 1.9, 5.0, 6.87, 7.11 44,Potsdam,___________________________ 5 18 1, -2.3, 9.1, 6.86, 6.00 45,Salem State,_______________________ 8 15 0, -0.6, 7.3, 6.67, 6.09 46,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 11 11 1, -0.2, 6.8, 6.60, 6.01 47,St John's,_________________________ 7 13 1, -0.5, 7.0, 6.57, 7.01 48,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 7 16 2, -1.1, 7.4, 6.27, 7.64 49,St Olaf,___________________________ 9 12 2, -0.3, 6.5, 6.21, 5.87 50,Marian,____________________________ 10 10 3, 0.4, 5.4, 5.80, 7.19 51,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 13 1, -0.7, 6.4, 5.76, 5.86 52,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 19 3, -1.8, 7.5, 5.73, 6.59 53,Morrisville,_______________________ 4 9 0, -2.2, 7.8, 5.65, 4.62 54,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 16 0, -1.9, 7.4, 5.57, 5.96 55,Fitchburg State,___________________ 12 8 3, 0.4, 5.0, 5.42, 5.46 56,Nichols,___________________________ 12 9 1, 0.2, 4.9, 5.14, 4.42 57,Plymouth State,____________________ 8 12 2, -1.0, 6.1, 5.10, 4.75 58,Lawrence,__________________________ 11 11 1, -0.2, 5.2, 5.06, 4.25 59,Hamline,___________________________ 7 14 0, -1.6, 6.5, 4.96, 5.16 60,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 4 18 1, -2.6, 7.5, 4.94, 4.34 61,St Michael's,______________________ 2 15 0, -2.9, 7.8, 4.88, 6.00 62,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 2 22 1, -4.0, 8.8, 4.80, 6.15 63,Stonehill,_________________________ 6 9 0, -0.3, 5.0, 4.71, 4.83 64,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 11 10 1, -0.7, 5.3, 4.62, 5.45 65,So New Hampshire,__________________ 7 8 1, -0.9, 5.2, 4.28, 5.24 66,Suffolk,___________________________ 7 13 1, -0.6, 4.8, 4.18, 5.50 67,Salve Regina,______________________ 8 13 1, -1.1, 5.2, 4.07, 4.67 68,Concordia,_________________________ 6 15 0, -2.0, 5.9, 3.93, 2.81 69,Worcester State,___________________ 6 13 1, -1.5, 4.6, 3.15, 2.21 70,Western NE College,________________ 8 13 0, -1.3, 4.4, 3.08, 2.25 71,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 8 2, -1.9, 4.8, 2.93, 1.13 72,Becker,____________________________ 1 11 2, -2.1, 4.8, 2.69, 2.58 73,Framingham State,__________________ 2 19 1, -2.2, 4.9, 2.68, 2.72 74,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 3 14 2, -2.9, 5.5, 2.52, 1.12 75,Assumption,________________________ 2 13 0, -3.2, 5.4, 2.17, 1.79 76,Northland,_________________________ 0 22 1, -3.9, 5.8, 1.95, 1.49 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Manhattanville,____________________ 18 0 4, 0.8, 7.3, 8.08, 8.16 2,Oswego,____________________________ 19 2 3, 0.7, 7.3, 7.99, 7.97 3,Neumann,___________________________ 16 4 5, 0.5, 7.5, 7.95, 7.80 4,St Norbert,________________________ 20 3 2, 0.7, 7.2, 7.83, 7.58 5,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 19 4 2, 0.6, 7.1, 7.74, 7.44 6,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 19 4 2, 0.6, 7.1, 7.73, 7.80 7,Wis-Superior,______________________ 19 5 1, 0.6, 7.1, 7.69, 7.79 8,Hobart,____________________________ 12 6 5, 0.3, 7.4, 7.68, 7.26 9,Geneseo,___________________________ 16 8 0, 0.3, 7.3, 7.67, 8.03 10,Utica,_____________________________ 12 7 3, 0.2, 7.4, 7.66, 7.57 11,Norwich,___________________________ 17 6 0, 0.5, 7.1, 7.59, 7.82 12,Elmira,____________________________ 11 9 3, 0.1, 7.5, 7.57, 7.81 13,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 11 7 6, 0.2, 7.4, 7.52, 7.79 14,Fredonia,__________________________ 12 8 4, 0.2, 7.3, 7.48, 7.15 15,Babson,____________________________ 14 8 1, 0.3, 7.2, 7.41, 7.97 16,Castleton State,___________________ 10 3 3, 0.4, 7.0, 7.40, 7.99 17,Bowdoin,___________________________ 13 5 3, 0.4, 7.0, 7.37, 7.62 18,Castleton,_________________________ 5 2 0, 0.4, 6.9, 7.37 19,Middlebury,________________________ 12 7 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.36, 7.19 20,Amherst,___________________________ 13 7 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.36, 6.92 21,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 20 2 1, 0.8, 6.5, 7.31, 6.96 22,Southern Maine,____________________ 14 7 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.29, 7.50 23,Colby,_____________________________ 12 7 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.29, 7.34 24,Skidmore,__________________________ 14 7 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.29, 7.05 25,New England College,_______________ 13 9 1, 0.2, 7.1, 7.28, 7.45 26,Wesleyan,__________________________ 11 6 4, 0.2, 7.0, 7.27, 7.11 27,Bethel,____________________________ 12 8 1, 0.2, 7.1, 7.25, 7.62 28,St Thomas,_________________________ 12 9 0, 0.1, 7.1, 7.23, 7.75 29,St Scholastica,____________________ 13 10 2, 0.1, 7.1, 7.21, 7.34 30,Buffalo State,_____________________ 11 11 2, 0.0, 7.2, 7.20, 7.26 31,Milw School of Eng,________________ 17 4 2, 0.6, 6.6, 7.18, 7.39 32,Curry,_____________________________ 14 8 1, 0.3, 6.9, 7.14, 7.25 33,Augsburg,__________________________ 8 9 4, -0.0, 7.2, 7.10, 7.20 34,Wentworth,_________________________ 13 7 3, 0.3, 6.8, 7.10, 7.59 35,St Anselm,_________________________ 7 8 3, -0.1, 7.1, 7.09, 7.31 36,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 9 12 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.08, 6.97 37,Brockport,_________________________ 6 11 7, -0.2, 7.3, 7.07, 6.64 38,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 11 11 1, 0.0, 7.1, 7.06, 6.58 39,Cortland,__________________________ 8 13 3, -0.2, 7.2, 7.03, 7.19 40,Finlandia,_________________________ 15 7 0, 0.4, 6.7, 7.02, 6.87 41,Trinity,___________________________ 8 10 4, -0.1, 7.1, 7.01, 7.23 42,Conn College,______________________ 8 12 2, -0.2, 7.2, 6.98, 7.00 43,Williams,__________________________ 7 12 2, -0.2, 7.2, 6.97, 6.87 44,Potsdam,___________________________ 5 18 1, -0.5, 7.5, 6.96, 6.65 45,St Olaf,___________________________ 9 12 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.85, 7.21 46,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 7 16 2, -0.4, 7.2, 6.84, 6.97 47,Morrisville,_______________________ 4 9 0, -0.4, 7.2, 6.83, 6.68 48,St John's,_________________________ 7 13 1, -0.3, 7.1, 6.82, 6.98 49,Hamilton,__________________________ 6 15 1, -0.4, 7.2, 6.79, 7.41 50,Marian,____________________________ 10 10 3, 0.0, 6.8, 6.75, 6.86 51,Lawrence,__________________________ 11 11 1, 0.0, 6.7, 6.71, 6.71 52,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 13 1, -0.3, 7.0, 6.69, 6.47 53,Fitchburg State,___________________ 12 8 3, 0.2, 6.5, 6.66, 6.50 54,Salem State,_______________________ 8 15 0, -0.3, 7.0, 6.65, 6.51 55,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 19 3, -0.6, 7.3, 6.62, 6.86 56,Hamline,___________________________ 7 14 0, -0.3, 7.0, 6.62, 6.78 57,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 11 10 1, 0.0, 6.6, 6.62, 6.67 58,Nichols,___________________________ 12 9 1, 0.1, 6.5, 6.61, 6.40 59,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 2 22 1, -0.8, 7.4, 6.60, 6.95 60,Plymouth State,____________________ 8 12 2, -0.2, 6.8, 6.58, 6.33 61,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 16 0, -0.5, 7.0, 6.55, 6.52 62,So New Hampshire,__________________ 7 8 1, -0.1, 6.5, 6.47, 6.51 63,Concordia,_________________________ 6 15 0, -0.4, 6.8, 6.41, 6.16 64,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 4 18 1, -0.6, 7.0, 6.39, 6.20 65,Salve Regina,______________________ 8 13 1, -0.2, 6.5, 6.31, 6.05 66,St Michael's,______________________ 2 15 0, -0.8, 7.1, 6.31, 6.26 67,Stonehill,_________________________ 6 9 0, -0.2, 6.5, 6.29, 6.77 68,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 3 14 2, -0.6, 6.7, 6.17, 5.79 69,Suffolk,___________________________ 7 13 1, -0.3, 6.4, 6.14, 6.79 70,Western NE College,________________ 8 13 0, -0.2, 6.3, 6.10, 5.61 71,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 8 2, -0.4, 6.5, 6.07, 5.87 72,Worcester State,___________________ 6 13 1, -0.4, 6.4, 6.03, 6.13 73,Northland,_________________________ 0 22 1, -1.0, 6.8, 5.89, 5.98 74,Assumption,________________________ 2 13 0, -0.7, 6.6, 5.85, 5.83 75,Becker,____________________________ 1 11 2, -0.7, 6.5, 5.80, 5.68 76,Framingham State,__________________ 2 19 1, -0.8, 6.5, 5.68, 5.48 Link to the 2005-2006 Final D1 Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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