Scores (sorted by team) through March 4, 2007 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Manhattanville,____________________ 20 1 5, 3.2, 8.3, 11.55, 10.56 2,Neumann,___________________________ 17 5 5, 1.9, 9.0, 10.93, 10.43 3,Oswego,____________________________ 20 3 3, 2.6, 8.2, 10.73, 9.57 4,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 14 8 6, 1.9, 8.4, 10.30, 12.70 5,Norwich,___________________________ 20 7 0, 2.1, 7.9, 9.98, 9.91 6,St Norbert,________________________ 24 3 2, 2.7, 7.3, 9.97, 9.63 7,Hobart,____________________________ 13 8 5, 1.1, 8.8, 9.93, 10.34 8,Utica,_____________________________ 13 9 3, 0.9, 9.0, 9.88, 10.46 9,Elmira,____________________________ 13 10 4, 0.4, 9.3, 9.65, 10.10 10,Middlebury,________________________ 17 7 3, 1.1, 8.1, 9.19, 10.94 11,Babson,____________________________ 18 9 1, 1.1, 8.0, 9.19, 9.98 12,Bowdoin,___________________________ 16 7 3, 1.6, 7.6, 9.15, 9.65 13,Colby,_____________________________ 14 9 2, 1.4, 7.7, 9.10, 9.74 14,Fredonia,__________________________ 15 9 4, 0.7, 8.3, 9.00, 9.77 15,Geneseo,___________________________ 16 10 0, 0.5, 8.5, 8.96, 8.40 16,Castleton State,___________________ 10 3 3, 1.8, 7.1, 8.90, 10.06 17,Castleton,_________________________ 7 3 1, 1.2, 7.7, 8.90, 8.90 18,Wis-Superior,______________________ 20 6 1, 1.7, 7.2, 8.84, 9.52 19,Southern Maine,____________________ 15 9 2, 1.3, 7.5, 8.82, 7.65 20,New England College,_______________ 17 10 1, 0.9, 7.8, 8.73, 9.65 21,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 21 5 2, 1.6, 7.1, 8.70, 9.62 22,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 21 5 2, 1.5, 7.2, 8.67, 7.77 23,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 25 2 1, 3.2, 5.1, 8.33, 9.21 24,Amherst,___________________________ 14 10 1, 0.3, 7.9, 8.19, 7.67 25,Skidmore,__________________________ 16 8 2, 0.6, 7.5, 8.15, 8.63 26,Wesleyan,__________________________ 11 8 5, 0.3, 7.7, 8.07, 6.90 27,Trinity,___________________________ 8 13 4, 0.1, 8.0, 8.05, 6.29 28,Curry,_____________________________ 16 9 2, 1.8, 6.3, 8.04, 6.15 29,Bethel,____________________________ 17 9 1, 1.2, 6.7, 7.92, 8.48 30,Buffalo State,_____________________ 12 12 2, 0.2, 7.7, 7.87, 8.96 31,St Thomas,_________________________ 17 10 0, 0.9, 6.9, 7.78, 8.07 32,Conn College,______________________ 10 13 2, -0.5, 8.1, 7.62, 8.15 33,St Anselm,_________________________ 7 10 3, -0.5, 8.1, 7.59, 7.16 34,St Scholastica,____________________ 15 12 2, 0.3, 7.2, 7.48, 7.84 35,Williams,__________________________ 8 14 2, -1.0, 8.3, 7.35, 6.29 36,Finlandia,_________________________ 19 8 0, 2.0, 5.2, 7.23, 8.57 37,Augsburg,__________________________ 12 10 4, 0.3, 6.9, 7.21, 7.89 38,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 9 14 4, -0.3, 7.5, 7.19, 7.01 39,Brockport,_________________________ 7 12 7, -1.2, 8.2, 7.10, 6.29 40,Wentworth,_________________________ 16 9 3, 0.7, 6.3, 7.01, 7.06 41,Cortland,__________________________ 8 14 3, -1.1, 8.1, 6.98, 8.12 42,Hamilton,__________________________ 7 16 1, -1.3, 8.2, 6.92, 6.60 43,Milw School of Eng,________________ 19 6 2, 1.6, 5.3, 6.91, 6.92 44,Potsdam,___________________________ 5 19 1, -2.4, 9.2, 6.72, 5.21 45,Salem State,_______________________ 9 17 0, -0.7, 7.3, 6.68, 5.22 46,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 11 13 2, -0.3, 6.8, 6.49, 6.30 47,St John's,_________________________ 9 14 2, -0.4, 6.8, 6.40, 5.13 48,St Olaf,___________________________ 11 14 2, -0.4, 6.6, 6.28, 6.61 49,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 7 18 2, -1.3, 7.5, 6.23, 6.74 50,Marian,____________________________ 14 12 3, 0.8, 5.2, 6.06, 6.08 51,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 17 1, -0.8, 6.6, 5.80, 5.93 52,Morrisville,_______________________ 4 9 0, -2.2, 7.8, 5.69, 4.74 53,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 21 3, -2.0, 7.6, 5.63, 6.11 54,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 18 0, -2.0, 7.4, 5.42, 5.34 55,Fitchburg State,___________________ 14 10 3, 0.2, 5.0, 5.23, 4.47 56,Plymouth State,____________________ 11 13 2, -0.5, 5.7, 5.19, 5.72 57,Nichols,___________________________ 13 11 2, 0.1, 5.0, 5.05, 5.27 58,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 5 20 1, -2.5, 7.5, 4.96, 4.51 59,Lawrence,__________________________ 13 14 2, -0.4, 5.3, 4.94, 4.63 60,St Michael's,______________________ 2 17 0, -3.0, 7.8, 4.85, 5.13 61,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 2 22 1, -4.0, 8.7, 4.76, 6.03 62,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 12 12 1, -0.9, 5.5, 4.65, 5.52 63,Hamline,___________________________ 7 18 0, -2.1, 6.7, 4.63, 3.38 64,Stonehill,_________________________ 7 9 0, -0.1, 4.8, 4.63, 4.72 65,So New Hampshire,__________________ 8 8 1, -0.8, 5.1, 4.26, 4.92 66,Suffolk,___________________________ 7 15 2, -0.6, 4.8, 4.24, 4.75 67,Concordia,_________________________ 7 18 0, -1.8, 6.1, 4.22, 5.20 68,Salve Regina,______________________ 10 14 1, -1.0, 5.1, 4.10, 4.56 69,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 5 16 3, -2.2, 5.2, 3.06, 4.88 70,Western NE College,________________ 8 15 0, -1.5, 4.4, 2.92, 2.44 71,Assumption,________________________ 3 13 1, -2.5, 5.3, 2.81, 3.93 72,Worcester State,___________________ 6 16 1, -1.7, 4.4, 2.69, 0.28 73,Framingham State,__________________ 2 20 1, -2.3, 4.9, 2.61, 2.31 74,Becker,____________________________ 1 12 2, -2.1, 4.7, 2.59, 2.50 75,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 10 2, -2.3, 4.8, 2.53, -0.10 76,Northland,_________________________ 0 26 1, -4.1, 5.8, 1.65, -0.74 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Manhattanville,____________________ 20 1 5, 0.7, 7.3, 8.05, 8.17 2,Oswego,____________________________ 20 3 3, 0.7, 7.3, 7.95, 7.47 3,Neumann,___________________________ 17 5 5, 0.4, 7.5, 7.94, 7.49 4,St Norbert,________________________ 24 3 2, 0.7, 7.2, 7.90, 8.16 5,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 21 5 2, 0.6, 7.1, 7.72, 7.19 6,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 21 5 2, 0.6, 7.1, 7.68, 7.80 7,Wis-Superior,______________________ 20 6 1, 0.5, 7.2, 7.67, 7.97 8,Elmira,____________________________ 13 10 4, 0.1, 7.5, 7.65, 7.88 9,Utica,_____________________________ 13 9 3, 0.2, 7.5, 7.63, 7.48 10,Hobart,____________________________ 13 8 5, 0.2, 7.4, 7.63, 7.44 11,Geneseo,___________________________ 16 10 0, 0.2, 7.3, 7.58, 7.49 12,Norwich,___________________________ 20 7 0, 0.5, 7.1, 7.57, 7.75 13,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 14 8 6, 0.2, 7.4, 7.57, 8.03 14,Fredonia,__________________________ 15 9 4, 0.2, 7.3, 7.56, 8.03 15,Middlebury,________________________ 17 7 3, 0.4, 7.1, 7.48, 8.11 16,Babson,____________________________ 18 9 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.45, 7.74 17,Castleton,_________________________ 7 3 1, 0.4, 7.0, 7.38, 7.38 18,Castleton State,___________________ 10 3 3, 0.4, 6.9, 7.38, 7.97 19,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 25 2 1, 0.8, 6.5, 7.35, 7.65 20,Bowdoin,___________________________ 16 7 3, 0.3, 7.0, 7.35, 7.30 21,New England College,_______________ 17 10 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.33, 7.68 22,Bethel,____________________________ 17 9 1, 0.3, 7.0, 7.32, 7.53 23,Skidmore,__________________________ 16 8 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.31, 7.28 24,St Thomas,_________________________ 17 10 0, 0.3, 7.0, 7.30, 7.46 25,St Scholastica,____________________ 15 12 2, 0.1, 7.2, 7.28, 7.52 26,Buffalo State,_____________________ 12 12 2, 0.0, 7.2, 7.24, 7.35 27,Colby,_____________________________ 14 9 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.24, 7.25 28,Amherst,___________________________ 14 10 1, 0.2, 7.1, 7.23, 6.98 29,Southern Maine,____________________ 15 9 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.23, 7.03 30,Milw School of Eng,________________ 19 6 2, 0.5, 6.7, 7.17, 7.15 31,Wesleyan,__________________________ 11 8 5, 0.1, 7.0, 7.17, 6.50 32,Augsburg,__________________________ 12 10 4, 0.1, 7.1, 7.14, 7.26 33,Finlandia,_________________________ 19 8 0, 0.4, 6.7, 7.12, 7.51 34,Brockport,_________________________ 7 12 7, -0.2, 7.3, 7.12, 6.90 35,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 9 14 4, -0.2, 7.3, 7.08, 6.82 36,Curry,_____________________________ 16 9 2, 0.3, 6.8, 7.06, 6.87 37,Wentworth,_________________________ 16 9 3, 0.3, 6.8, 7.05, 6.87 38,Cortland,__________________________ 8 14 3, -0.2, 7.3, 7.04, 7.46 39,Conn College,______________________ 10 13 2, -0.1, 7.1, 7.00, 7.40 40,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 11 13 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.97, 6.58 41,St Anselm,_________________________ 7 10 3, -0.2, 7.1, 6.97, 6.48 42,Potsdam,___________________________ 5 19 1, -0.6, 7.5, 6.96, 6.65 43,Williams,__________________________ 8 14 2, -0.3, 7.2, 6.94, 6.88 44,St Olaf,___________________________ 11 14 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.91, 7.31 45,Trinity,___________________________ 8 13 4, -0.2, 7.1, 6.90, 6.32 46,Morrisville,_______________________ 4 9 0, -0.4, 7.2, 6.86, 6.73 47,St John's,_________________________ 9 14 2, -0.2, 7.1, 6.85, 6.79 48,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 7 18 2, -0.4, 7.2, 6.84, 6.90 49,Hamilton,__________________________ 7 16 1, -0.4, 7.2, 6.80, 7.01 50,Marian,____________________________ 14 12 3, 0.1, 6.7, 6.79, 6.64 51,Lawrence,__________________________ 13 14 2, -0.0, 6.7, 6.69, 6.65 52,Salem State,_______________________ 9 17 0, -0.3, 7.0, 6.66, 6.42 53,Fitchburg State,___________________ 14 10 3, 0.1, 6.5, 6.64, 6.58 54,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 21 3, -0.7, 7.3, 6.64, 6.85 55,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 12 12 1, 0.0, 6.6, 6.64, 6.83 56,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 17 1, -0.4, 7.0, 6.63, 6.23 57,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 2 22 1, -0.8, 7.4, 6.59, 6.91 58,Plymouth State,____________________ 11 13 2, -0.1, 6.7, 6.59, 6.64 59,Hamline,___________________________ 7 18 0, -0.4, 7.0, 6.57, 6.24 60,Nichols,___________________________ 13 11 2, 0.1, 6.5, 6.56, 6.51 61,So New Hampshire,__________________ 8 8 1, 0.0, 6.5, 6.49, 6.64 62,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 18 0, -0.5, 7.0, 6.49, 6.33 63,Concordia,_________________________ 7 18 0, -0.4, 6.9, 6.43, 6.46 64,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 5 20 1, -0.6, 7.0, 6.41, 6.50 65,Salve Regina,______________________ 10 14 1, -0.2, 6.5, 6.37, 6.65 66,Stonehill,_________________________ 7 9 0, -0.1, 6.4, 6.30, 6.70 67,St Michael's,______________________ 2 17 0, -0.8, 7.1, 6.29, 6.24 68,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 5 16 3, -0.5, 6.7, 6.24, 6.44 69,Suffolk,___________________________ 7 15 2, -0.3, 6.5, 6.12, 6.27 70,Western NE College,________________ 8 15 0, -0.3, 6.3, 6.03, 5.66 71,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 10 2, -0.5, 6.5, 5.99, 5.61 72,Assumption,________________________ 3 13 1, -0.6, 6.6, 5.97, 6.16 73,Worcester State,___________________ 6 16 1, -0.4, 6.3, 5.91, 5.50 74,Northland,_________________________ 0 26 1, -1.0, 6.8, 5.85, 5.57 75,Becker,____________________________ 1 12 2, -0.7, 6.5, 5.75, 5.67 76,Framingham State,__________________ 2 20 1, -0.8, 6.5, 5.68, 5.53 Link to the 2005-2006 Final D1 Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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