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Predicting the Minnesota boys' section hockey tournament games, by method:

PageStat: 106-19
Seedings: 99-26
W/L record: 96-29

PageStat disagreed with the seedings 11 times this year, winning nine of those games.

PageStat, once again, beats the seedings. In the past eleven seasons, PageStat has won the overall disagreements in nine seasons and tied twice. The seedings haven't won the annual "competition" since 2014. Since 2015, there have been 125 games where PageStat has disagreed with the seedings. The PageStat picked team has won 84 of those, the higher seeded team 41 games.

Always looking to improve the system, I'll be doing a detailed analysis of the various PageStat methods available to me to see if a change in goal cap or momentum adjustment is necessitated next year.

Lee

impressive history Lee

blueblood wrote: ↑Sat Feb 28, 2026 8:55 am impressive history Lee

I don't know if it points to how good PageStat is, how lucky it is, or how bad the section seeders are?

Lee

Updated PageStat ratings through 2/27:

https://leepagen.com/ps2026.htm

Lee

PageStat picks for today's Class A quarterfinal games:

Hibbing over Dodge County by 5
Mahtomedi over St. Cloud Cathedral by 2
Delano over Mankato West by 2
Warroad over Northern Lakes by 3

east hockey wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2026 10:02 am PageStat picks for today's Class A quarterfinal games:

Hibbing over Dodge County by 5
Mahtomedi over St. Cloud Cathedral by 2
Delano over Mankato West by 2
Warroad over Northern Lakes by 3

Pretty risky picks here by pagestat.

elliott70 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2026 10:29 am

east hockey wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2026 10:02 am PageStat picks for today's Class A quarterfinal games:

Hibbing over Dodge County by 5
Mahtomedi over St. Cloud Cathedral by 2
Delano over Mankato West by 2
Warroad over Northern Lakes by 3

Pretty risky picks here by pagestat.

Yeah, picking the top seed in every game. Took some courage.

Lee

Four teams changed their PageStat ranking today:

Hibbing dropped from #10 to #11
Warroad rose from #15 to #14
Delano rose from #25 to #24
Mankato West dropped from #57 to #59

Lee

Today's PageStat picks:

St Cloud Cathedral over Dodge County by 1
Northern Lakes over Mankato West by 1

Minnetonka over Gentry Academy by 3
Rosemount over Grand Rapids by 2
Moorhead over Lakeville South by 3
Edina over Andover by 3

east hockey wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2026 9:12 am Today's PageStat picks:

St Cloud Cathedral over Dodge County by 1
Northern Lakes over Mankato West by 1

Minnetonka over Gentry Academy by 3
Rosemount over Grand Rapids by 2
Moorhead over Lakeville South by 3
Edina over Andover by 3

St Cloud Cathedral over Dodge County by 3
Northern Lakes over Mankato West by 4

Minnetonka over Gentry Academy by 3
Rosemount loses Grand Rapids by 1
Moorhead over Lakeville South by
Edina over Andover in OT

Mine are a little more dramatic picks then pagestat.

PageStat (and the seedings) are 9-1 after two days, missing only Mankato West over Northern Lakes.

Today's picks

Class AA

#1 Minnetonka over #4 Rosemount
#2 Moorhead over #3 Edina

#5 Grand Rapids over #8 Gentry Academy
#7 Lakeville South over #6 Andover

Class A

#1 Hibbing over #4 Mahtomedi
#3 Warroad over #2 Delano

Finally, a couple disagreements between PageStat and the seedings!

Updated PageStat last night with some recent Wisconsin and North Dakota scores. These didn't move the needle on Minnesota teams.

Lee

east hockey wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2026 9:00 am
Updated PageStat last night with some recent Wisconsin and North Dakota scores. These didn't move the needle on Minnesota teams.

Lee

Hey Lee, are out of state PageStat rankings posted on your site somewhere? Most interested in Stevens Point (SPASH) for WI and Grand Forks Central for ND.

ryguyMN wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2026 10:44 am

east hockey wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2026 9:00 am
Updated PageStat last night with some recent Wisconsin and North Dakota scores. These didn't move the needle on Minnesota teams.

Lee

Hey Lee, are out of state PageStat rankings posted on your site somewhere? Most interested in Stevens Point (SPASH) for WI and Grand Forks Central for ND.

Haven't worked the website thing yet. Both teams you mentioned are #1 in their respective states. Stevens Point would be #41 in Minnesota, Central would be #16. After their State Tournaments are complete, I'll be posting their Top 10 (Top 15 for Wisconsin) rankings on this thread.

Lee

South beats Andover in OT, putting PageStat +1 on the seedings. It also picks Warroad, which is currently up by two goals in a great game against Delano

Lee

Now +2. Way to go, Warroad!

Lee

Dear MSHSL,

Please use PageStat to seed 1 through 8 in both class tournaments.

Thank you for your consideration.

Sincerely,
Ryan

ryguyMN wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2026 3:55 pm Dear MSHSL,

Please use PageStat to seed 1 through 8 in both class tournaments.

Thank you for your consideration.

Sincerely,
Ryan

Lee

Final day of the season!

PageStat heads into this final day 15-1, the higher seeds are 13-3. Today's PageStat picks:

Class AA

#1 Minnetonka over #2 Moorhead
#3 Edina over #4 Rosemount
#5 Grand Rapids over #7 Lakeville South

Class A

#1 Hibbing over #3 Warroad
#2 Delano over #4 Mahtomedi
#5 St Cloud Cathedral over #7 Mankato West

Lee

Warroad leading Hibbing by a goal flips them for the #1/#2 spot in PageStat's Class A

Lee