AA Rankings for 2/15
Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 12:27 am
One week left in the regular season!
I plan on issuing a final regular-season set of rankings after next Saturday too. Yes, three playoff games will have already been played, but I don't think any of us have to worry about teams like Princeton or River Lakes cracking the rankings.
I plan to eliminate the teams that lose from the rankings, under the obvious premise that teams which have been eliminated are not in the state tourney picture, despite the fact that they may actually be better than some of the teams left. The following week, all but 2 sections will have played their semifinals after Saturday. 4AA's semis and 8AA's finals are the same night, so it's impossible to do some sort of "Sweet 16" prior to semifinals, unfortunately. Instead, I'll rank the 20 teams left after Saturday, even though it'll be obvious that a few of them don't belong.
OK, enough with the logistics. Here are the rankings. I feel a lot better about this week's version than last week's, though there are still a few choppy patches. The numbers after the team name are overall records, followed by a record against a basket of roughly 20 top teams, plus a few elite single-A teams and non-MSHSL competition.
1. Edina (19-4/14-4)
-Let me explain the logic here. EP has beaten Jefferson (this week, in convincing fashion), so I cannot rank Jefferson ahead of EP. Edina has beaten EP twice in head-to-head matchups, so I cannot rank EP ahead of Edina. And as there is no completely convincing reasoning to suggest that Jefferson is better than Edina, the Hornets get #1. In their defense, they've rebounded from the recent stretch of losses with two whippings of top-15 teams. Still one huge test left for them this week, though.
This week: Thurs at Robbinsdale Armstrong, Sat vs. #6 Minnetonka
2. Eden Prairie (20-3/8-3)
-Following the above logic, they're #2. Impressive win over Jefferson on Tuesday to prove their legitimacy. Two relatively easy Lake games left, so they can cruise into 6AA sections with the #1 seed, knowing one very good team will be knocking off another very good team simply for the right to face them in the semifinals.
This week: Tues at Rosemount, Thurs vs. Lakeville South
3. Bloomington Jefferson (22-1/6-1)
-Suffered their first loss, but wow, how about the rebound? The astounding demolition of Eastview shows us they're definitely top-5 material and have a serious claim to #1. Seeing how the 2AA seeding works out will be interesting.
This week: Thurs at Eagan, Sat vs. Lakeville North
4. Duluth East (19-3-1/7-1-1)
-Keep on cruising into 7AA, though they have company at the top of the section now. Probably the #1 seed with the most interest in what goes on in a play-in if the possibility of them playing Cloquet arises.
This week: Tues vs. Hastings, Thurs vs. Brainerd
5. Centennial (17-3-3/6-3-3)
-Recovered from an upset at the hands of Elk River to knock off Blaine. They might be a little artificially high in relation to the other 5AA teams, but this is because the other two play each other this week and we'll have a better picture of where they stand shortly.
This week: Thurs at Andover, Sat vs. Osseo
6. Minnetonka (17-6/8-6)
-The key part of that 8-6 vs. top teams in a 6-1 in the last 7. They have a serious chance to spoil senior night in Edina this week as they load up for their run through 6AA.
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at #1 Edina
7. Holy Angels (18-4-1/6-4-1)
-Picked up a strong win against Benilde to establish themselves here. I'm putting them ahead of MG and ER because they have beaten ER recently. A very good reason not to want the 2-seed in 2AA. Two of the 4 losses are against non-MSHSL competition.
This week: Tues at Farmington, Thurs at Northfield
8. Maple Grove (18-2-3/2-2-2)
-Had an easy week cleaning up on the lower levels of the NWSC before one last, huge game that will likely decide the conference and the section seeding. Time to see what they're made of.
This week: Thurs vs. #10 Blaine, Sat vs. Coon Rapids
9. Elk River (15-7-1/2-7-1)
-A second huge win in a week throws them into the pile as a serious state contender capable of beating anybody. It's tempting to put them higher, but there are just a few too many losses weighing them down.
This week: Thurs vs. Osseo, Sat vs. Champlin Park
10. Blaine (19-3-1/3-3-1)
-Going down twice in the last week and a half against NWSC teams does not bode well, but they get one more shot this week at Maple Grove.
This week: Thurs at #8 Maple Grove, Sat at Andover
--note: there is a huge drop-off here.--
11. Wayzata (14-8-1/3-8-1)
-I was probably a bit reactionary in the dropoff from last week, though it still doesn't seem like they're playing their best hockey right now. Game to decide who gets home ice in the semis on Thursday.
This week: Thurs at #12 Hopkins, Sat vs. Robbinsdale Armstrong
12. Hopkins (14-8-1/2-4-1)
-Playing other top teams well enough to jump up here, despite the losses. Yes, there are 5 6AA teams in the top 14. What a section.
This week: Thurs vs. #11 Wayzata, Sat at Buffalo
13. Moorhead (10-9-3/2-7-2)
-I think they're more likely to come up with a big upset along the line than the two teams in front of them, but the overall record is still painful, and a tie against St. Cloud Tech does not help the cause. Have probably stolen the title of "State's Most Inconsistent Team" from WBL. Two games that could be difficult this week.
This week: Thurs at Alexandria, Sat at Hill-Murray
14. Benilde-St. Margaret's (18-6/5-4)
-Ugly week for the Red Knights, as they got upset by Totino-Grace and went down to Holy Angels too. This might be a harsh ranking considering their overall season, but now is not the time to be having winless weeks.
This week: Tues vs. Chisago Lakes, Thurs at Robbinsdale Cooper
15. Woodbury (19-3-2/5-1)
-Continued their generally unconvincing play with an upset at the hands of Roseville. The win over Cretin assured them a #1 seed in 3AA, but it did not come in a manner that suggests it's a foregone conclusion. Both Cretin and Eagan have shots at them. That 5-1 record vs. the "top" teams is misleading; all 5 have come against unranked teams. Important game in the SEC in which they can get back on track on Thursday.
This week: Thurs vs. White Bear Lake
Also worthy of note, in a vague semblance order that should not be read into too much (these are the other AA teams used in the rankings for the above teams):
Burnsville (11-10-2/3-8)
Cretin (15-7-1/1-6)
Eagan (14-7-1/0-6-1)
Tartan (15-7-1/1-3-1)
WBL (13-9-2/2-7-1)
Hill (14-8-1/5-6-1)
Enjoy the week!
I plan on issuing a final regular-season set of rankings after next Saturday too. Yes, three playoff games will have already been played, but I don't think any of us have to worry about teams like Princeton or River Lakes cracking the rankings.
I plan to eliminate the teams that lose from the rankings, under the obvious premise that teams which have been eliminated are not in the state tourney picture, despite the fact that they may actually be better than some of the teams left. The following week, all but 2 sections will have played their semifinals after Saturday. 4AA's semis and 8AA's finals are the same night, so it's impossible to do some sort of "Sweet 16" prior to semifinals, unfortunately. Instead, I'll rank the 20 teams left after Saturday, even though it'll be obvious that a few of them don't belong.
OK, enough with the logistics. Here are the rankings. I feel a lot better about this week's version than last week's, though there are still a few choppy patches. The numbers after the team name are overall records, followed by a record against a basket of roughly 20 top teams, plus a few elite single-A teams and non-MSHSL competition.
1. Edina (19-4/14-4)
-Let me explain the logic here. EP has beaten Jefferson (this week, in convincing fashion), so I cannot rank Jefferson ahead of EP. Edina has beaten EP twice in head-to-head matchups, so I cannot rank EP ahead of Edina. And as there is no completely convincing reasoning to suggest that Jefferson is better than Edina, the Hornets get #1. In their defense, they've rebounded from the recent stretch of losses with two whippings of top-15 teams. Still one huge test left for them this week, though.
This week: Thurs at Robbinsdale Armstrong, Sat vs. #6 Minnetonka
2. Eden Prairie (20-3/8-3)
-Following the above logic, they're #2. Impressive win over Jefferson on Tuesday to prove their legitimacy. Two relatively easy Lake games left, so they can cruise into 6AA sections with the #1 seed, knowing one very good team will be knocking off another very good team simply for the right to face them in the semifinals.
This week: Tues at Rosemount, Thurs vs. Lakeville South
3. Bloomington Jefferson (22-1/6-1)
-Suffered their first loss, but wow, how about the rebound? The astounding demolition of Eastview shows us they're definitely top-5 material and have a serious claim to #1. Seeing how the 2AA seeding works out will be interesting.
This week: Thurs at Eagan, Sat vs. Lakeville North
4. Duluth East (19-3-1/7-1-1)
-Keep on cruising into 7AA, though they have company at the top of the section now. Probably the #1 seed with the most interest in what goes on in a play-in if the possibility of them playing Cloquet arises.
This week: Tues vs. Hastings, Thurs vs. Brainerd
5. Centennial (17-3-3/6-3-3)
-Recovered from an upset at the hands of Elk River to knock off Blaine. They might be a little artificially high in relation to the other 5AA teams, but this is because the other two play each other this week and we'll have a better picture of where they stand shortly.
This week: Thurs at Andover, Sat vs. Osseo
6. Minnetonka (17-6/8-6)
-The key part of that 8-6 vs. top teams in a 6-1 in the last 7. They have a serious chance to spoil senior night in Edina this week as they load up for their run through 6AA.
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at #1 Edina
7. Holy Angels (18-4-1/6-4-1)
-Picked up a strong win against Benilde to establish themselves here. I'm putting them ahead of MG and ER because they have beaten ER recently. A very good reason not to want the 2-seed in 2AA. Two of the 4 losses are against non-MSHSL competition.
This week: Tues at Farmington, Thurs at Northfield
8. Maple Grove (18-2-3/2-2-2)
-Had an easy week cleaning up on the lower levels of the NWSC before one last, huge game that will likely decide the conference and the section seeding. Time to see what they're made of.
This week: Thurs vs. #10 Blaine, Sat vs. Coon Rapids
9. Elk River (15-7-1/2-7-1)
-A second huge win in a week throws them into the pile as a serious state contender capable of beating anybody. It's tempting to put them higher, but there are just a few too many losses weighing them down.
This week: Thurs vs. Osseo, Sat vs. Champlin Park
10. Blaine (19-3-1/3-3-1)
-Going down twice in the last week and a half against NWSC teams does not bode well, but they get one more shot this week at Maple Grove.
This week: Thurs at #8 Maple Grove, Sat at Andover
--note: there is a huge drop-off here.--
11. Wayzata (14-8-1/3-8-1)
-I was probably a bit reactionary in the dropoff from last week, though it still doesn't seem like they're playing their best hockey right now. Game to decide who gets home ice in the semis on Thursday.
This week: Thurs at #12 Hopkins, Sat vs. Robbinsdale Armstrong
12. Hopkins (14-8-1/2-4-1)
-Playing other top teams well enough to jump up here, despite the losses. Yes, there are 5 6AA teams in the top 14. What a section.
This week: Thurs vs. #11 Wayzata, Sat at Buffalo
13. Moorhead (10-9-3/2-7-2)
-I think they're more likely to come up with a big upset along the line than the two teams in front of them, but the overall record is still painful, and a tie against St. Cloud Tech does not help the cause. Have probably stolen the title of "State's Most Inconsistent Team" from WBL. Two games that could be difficult this week.
This week: Thurs at Alexandria, Sat at Hill-Murray
14. Benilde-St. Margaret's (18-6/5-4)
-Ugly week for the Red Knights, as they got upset by Totino-Grace and went down to Holy Angels too. This might be a harsh ranking considering their overall season, but now is not the time to be having winless weeks.
This week: Tues vs. Chisago Lakes, Thurs at Robbinsdale Cooper
15. Woodbury (19-3-2/5-1)
-Continued their generally unconvincing play with an upset at the hands of Roseville. The win over Cretin assured them a #1 seed in 3AA, but it did not come in a manner that suggests it's a foregone conclusion. Both Cretin and Eagan have shots at them. That 5-1 record vs. the "top" teams is misleading; all 5 have come against unranked teams. Important game in the SEC in which they can get back on track on Thursday.
This week: Thurs vs. White Bear Lake
Also worthy of note, in a vague semblance order that should not be read into too much (these are the other AA teams used in the rankings for the above teams):
Burnsville (11-10-2/3-8)
Cretin (15-7-1/1-6)
Eagan (14-7-1/0-6-1)
Tartan (15-7-1/1-3-1)
WBL (13-9-2/2-7-1)
Hill (14-8-1/5-6-1)
Enjoy the week!