AA Rankings for 2/15

[karl(east)]

One week left in the regular season!

I plan on issuing a final regular-season set of rankings after next Saturday too. Yes, three playoff games will have already been played, but I don't think any of us have to worry about teams like Princeton or River Lakes cracking the rankings.

I plan to eliminate the teams that lose from the rankings, under the obvious premise that teams which have been eliminated are not in the state tourney picture, despite the fact that they may actually be better than some of the teams left. The following week, all but 2 sections will have played their semifinals after Saturday. 4AA's semis and 8AA's finals are the same night, so it's impossible to do some sort of "Sweet 16" prior to semifinals, unfortunately. Instead, I'll rank the 20 teams left after Saturday, even though it'll be obvious that a few of them don't belong.

OK, enough with the logistics. Here are the rankings. I feel a lot better about this week's version than last week's, though there are still a few choppy patches. The numbers after the team name are overall records, followed by a record against a basket of roughly 20 top teams, plus a few elite single-A teams and non-MSHSL competition.

1. Edina (19-4/14-4)
-Let me explain the logic here. EP has beaten Jefferson (this week, in convincing fashion), so I cannot rank Jefferson ahead of EP. Edina has beaten EP twice in head-to-head matchups, so I cannot rank EP ahead of Edina. And as there is no completely convincing reasoning to suggest that Jefferson is better than Edina, the Hornets get #1. In their defense, they've rebounded from the recent stretch of losses with two whippings of top-15 teams. Still one huge test left for them this week, though.
This week: Thurs at Robbinsdale Armstrong, Sat vs. #6 Minnetonka

2. Eden Prairie (20-3/8-3)
-Following the above logic, they're #2. Impressive win over Jefferson on Tuesday to prove their legitimacy. Two relatively easy Lake games left, so they can cruise into 6AA sections with the #1 seed, knowing one very good team will be knocking off another very good team simply for the right to face them in the semifinals.
This week: Tues at Rosemount, Thurs vs. Lakeville South

3. Bloomington Jefferson (22-1/6-1)
-Suffered their first loss, but wow, how about the rebound? The astounding demolition of Eastview shows us they're definitely top-5 material and have a serious claim to #1. Seeing how the 2AA seeding works out will be interesting.
This week: Thurs at Eagan, Sat vs. Lakeville North

4. Duluth East (19-3-1/7-1-1)
-Keep on cruising into 7AA, though they have company at the top of the section now. Probably the #1 seed with the most interest in what goes on in a play-in if the possibility of them playing Cloquet arises.
This week: Tues vs. Hastings, Thurs vs. Brainerd

5. Centennial (17-3-3/6-3-3)
-Recovered from an upset at the hands of Elk River to knock off Blaine. They might be a little artificially high in relation to the other 5AA teams, but this is because the other two play each other this week and we'll have a better picture of where they stand shortly.
This week: Thurs at Andover, Sat vs. Osseo

6. Minnetonka (17-6/8-6)
-The key part of that 8-6 vs. top teams in a 6-1 in the last 7. They have a serious chance to spoil senior night in Edina this week as they load up for their run through 6AA.
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at #1 Edina

7. Holy Angels (18-4-1/6-4-1)
-Picked up a strong win against Benilde to establish themselves here. I'm putting them ahead of MG and ER because they have beaten ER recently. A very good reason not to want the 2-seed in 2AA. Two of the 4 losses are against non-MSHSL competition.
This week: Tues at Farmington, Thurs at Northfield

8. Maple Grove (18-2-3/2-2-2)
-Had an easy week cleaning up on the lower levels of the NWSC before one last, huge game that will likely decide the conference and the section seeding. Time to see what they're made of.
This week: Thurs vs. #10 Blaine, Sat vs. Coon Rapids

9. Elk River (15-7-1/2-7-1)
-A second huge win in a week throws them into the pile as a serious state contender capable of beating anybody. It's tempting to put them higher, but there are just a few too many losses weighing them down.
This week: Thurs vs. Osseo, Sat vs. Champlin Park

10. Blaine (19-3-1/3-3-1)
-Going down twice in the last week and a half against NWSC teams does not bode well, but they get one more shot this week at Maple Grove.
This week: Thurs at #8 Maple Grove, Sat at Andover

--note: there is a huge drop-off here.--

11. Wayzata (14-8-1/3-8-1)
-I was probably a bit reactionary in the dropoff from last week, though it still doesn't seem like they're playing their best hockey right now. Game to decide who gets home ice in the semis on Thursday.
This week: Thurs at #12 Hopkins, Sat vs. Robbinsdale Armstrong

12. Hopkins (14-8-1/2-4-1)
-Playing other top teams well enough to jump up here, despite the losses. Yes, there are 5 6AA teams in the top 14. What a section.
This week: Thurs vs. #11 Wayzata, Sat at Buffalo

13. Moorhead (10-9-3/2-7-2)
-I think they're more likely to come up with a big upset along the line than the two teams in front of them, but the overall record is still painful, and a tie against St. Cloud Tech does not help the cause. Have probably stolen the title of "State's Most Inconsistent Team" from WBL. Two games that could be difficult this week.
This week: Thurs at Alexandria, Sat at Hill-Murray

14. Benilde-St. Margaret's (18-6/5-4)
-Ugly week for the Red Knights, as they got upset by Totino-Grace and went down to Holy Angels too. This might be a harsh ranking considering their overall season, but now is not the time to be having winless weeks.
This week: Tues vs. Chisago Lakes, Thurs at Robbinsdale Cooper

15. Woodbury (19-3-2/5-1)
-Continued their generally unconvincing play with an upset at the hands of Roseville. The win over Cretin assured them a #1 seed in 3AA, but it did not come in a manner that suggests it's a foregone conclusion. Both Cretin and Eagan have shots at them. That 5-1 record vs. the "top" teams is misleading; all 5 have come against unranked teams. Important game in the SEC in which they can get back on track on Thursday.
This week: Thurs vs. White Bear Lake

Also worthy of note, in a vague semblance order that should not be read into too much (these are the other AA teams used in the rankings for the above teams):
Burnsville (11-10-2/3-8)
Cretin (15-7-1/1-6)
Eagan (14-7-1/0-6-1)
Tartan (15-7-1/1-3-1)
WBL (13-9-2/2-7-1)
Hill (14-8-1/5-6-1)

Enjoy the week!

[gopherhockey99]

Thanks for the rankings Karl. Very nice input and have to say I agree right down the line. Cant wait for section time.

[HShockeywatcher]

Thanks for the rankings, I have a few opinions:
1. I wouldn't put Jefferson so high, but I digress.
2. Why is Blaine so low? They beat East, tied Centennial in their first meeting, lost by 1 goal tonight, and crushed Maple Grove in their one meeting.

I would move Centennial up a notch, put Blaine right below them and put East at 6. Then I'd say it were perfect. I'd also take Benilde up to spots to be closer at looking in on the top 10.

Thanks for the rankings Karl

[karl(east)]

Thanks for the rankings, I have a few opinions:
1. I wouldn't put Jefferson so high, but I digress.
2. Why is Blaine so low? They beat East, tied Centennial in their first meeting, lost by 1 goal tonight, and crushed Maple Grove in their one meeting.

I would move Centennial up a notch, put Blaine right below them and put East at 6. Then I'd say it were perfect. I'd also take Benilde up to spots to be closer at looking in on the top 10.

Thanks for the rankings Karl

1. I was considering dropping Jefferson lower, but the way they slaughtered Eastview stopped me from doing that.

2. For the NWSC teams, I found it easier to rank them as a bloc and then integrate that into the standings of the rest.
Against each other:
Centennial 3-2-1
Maple Grove 2-2-1
Elk River 2-3-1
Blaine 2-2-1

That's an important part of Blaine is where it is. Also, I am noticing that I'm perhaps a bit reactionary to losses, especially ones that occur on Saturday (same thing applies to Benilde, then). But Blaine still has a big chance to move up a number of places with a win over MG. If they lose, I don't think they'll drop at all. While they do have an impressive win over East, their loss to Edina was not close, and their nonconference schedule is otherwise quite weak.

As for Cent vs. DE, I was torn on them for a while. But if we're going to use the common opponent argument with Blaine, we should also include WBL, ER, and Moorhead, their other common, good opponents. East is 3-0 against these teams, while Centennial is 1-1-2.

[HShockeywatcher]

All good points, despite sensing some hometown bias I cannot argue the East/Centennial point.

Blaine/East - You are going to drop Blaine down for a weak schedule with their only losses being to the #1, #5 and #9 teams while you keep Jefferson up there? Seems silly to me.

[toptitty96]

You have to keep in mind that Jefferson has played a not so tough schedule and their one loss is to the #2 team, who they split games with. Blaine has played more legit teams than Jefferson, but they have the losses when they play the tougher teams. I don't see the logic in putting Blaine over Jefferson, although I am not sure that is what you want. I do agree with you that Blaine should be higher, however. Otherwise, I think these are great rankings.

[HShockeywatcher]

I think these are great rankings as well. Usually people are not going to agree 100% on things.

No, I'm not saying Blaine should be ahead of Jefferson. I am simply pointing out that karl(east) made the point that Blaine's non-conference schedule isn't great and he's holding that against them, while Jefferson's non-conference schedule is weak as well and that isn't being held against them.

In my opinion Jefferson is the hardest team to rank.

[karl(east)]

In my opinion Jefferson is the hardest team to rank.

I'd agree. It's not too hard to rank the other four S/W metro teams in relation to each other, or the NWSC teams in relation to each other. DE has played enough games against top competition that they slide in pretty well.

The difficulties then lie in trying to integrate those two big categories, and figuring out what to do with Jefferson.

[The New One]

Great analysis Karl. Unfortuantely the job seems to be getting tougher and tougher every week due to tremendous supporting arguments every way possible.

[minnesotaice]

Thanks for the rankings, I have a few opinions:
1. I wouldn't put Jefferson so high, but I digress.
2. Why is Blaine so low? They beat East, tied Centennial in their first meeting, lost by 1 goal tonight, and crushed Maple Grove in their one meeting.

I would move Centennial up a notch, put Blaine right below them and put East at 6. Then I'd say it were perfect. I'd also take Benilde up to spots to be closer at looking in on the top 10.

Thanks for the rankings Karl

1. I was considering dropping Jefferson lower, but the way they slaughtered Eastview stopped me from doing that.

2. For the NWSC teams, I found it easier to rank them as a bloc and then integrate that into the standings of the rest.
Against each other:
Centennial 3-2-1
Maple Grove 2-2-1
Elk River 2-3-1
Blaine 1-3-1

That's an important part of Blaine is where it is. Also, I am noticing that I'm perhaps a bit reactionary to losses, especially ones that occur on Saturday (same thing applies to Benilde, then). But Blaine still has a big chance to move up a number of places with a win over MG. If they lose, I don't think they'll drop at all. While they do have an impressive win over East, their loss to Edina was not close, and their nonconference schedule is otherwise quite weak.

As for Cent vs. DE, I was torn on them for a while. But if we're going to use the common opponent argument with Blaine, we should also include WBL, ER, and Moorhead, their other common, good opponents. East is 3-0 against these teams, while Centennial is 1-1-2.

Blaine is actually 2-2-1 against top NWSC teams. They defeated ER and MG. Blaine has been losing these games closely with the absence of key players.

[minnesotaice]

1. Eden Prairie

2. Bloomington Jefferson

3. Centennial- Actually, I like the NWSC as a whole, we will get a better picture when the seedings come around

4. Blaine- Lost by 1 to Centennial without Tufte and Wagamon

5. Edina- We'll see how they do against Tonka

6. Duluth East- Still not entirely convinced of this team, but they played well against strong teams earlier in the season so ill give them the benefit of the doubt.

7. Elk River- Stuck in the most competitive conference, defeated Blaine and Centennial, however as much as I want to rank them higher, I know how inconsistent the Elks can play.

8. Tonka- Have a good chance to prove top 5 legitimacy by beating Edina for the second time

9. Holy Angels- Big win against Benilde

10. Maple Grove- Almost lost to Andover on a miss-call by the officials. Sure, they beat Centennial, but lets see how they fare against the Bengals on Thursday.

[goldy313]

It's been an interesting year to say the least, lots of upsets and all. It looks to me like where you rank teams depends a whole lot on how you perceive their conference. Nearly every team in the top 10-12 come from 3 coferences; the Northwest Surburban (Blaine, Centennial, Elk River, & Maple Grove) the Lake (Jefferson, Eden Prairie), and the Classic Lake ( Edina, Hopkins, Minnetonka, & Wayzata).

The NWSC and Lake teams have exactly 1 game against each other making any real comparison iffy at best. Eden Prairie beat Elk River 4-2

The Lake and Classic Lake have 4 games between them and are 2-2

The NWSC and Classic Lake are 1-1-1.

It's hard to make any emphatic statement that one conference is superior to the the other two, it's just going to be opinion. When I ranked teams I gave a bias to the Lake and NWSC, I didn't intentionally do it, it's just the way it worked out. I'm sure others have it a different way and that's fine becuase I don't think a whole lot seperates many of these teams. To make matters more interesting in 1AA Century is playing well having knocked off Duluth East and Tartan, 2 potential #1 seeds and in 8AA Moorhead is playing better after a mid season slump. It will be an interesting playoffs this year in nearly every section, something that really hasn't happened in a while.

[karl(east)]

Thanks for the rankings, I have a few opinions:
1. I wouldn't put Jefferson so high, but I digress.
2. Why is Blaine so low? They beat East, tied Centennial in their first meeting, lost by 1 goal tonight, and crushed Maple Grove in their one meeting.

I would move Centennial up a notch, put Blaine right below them and put East at 6. Then I'd say it were perfect. I'd also take Benilde up to spots to be closer at looking in on the top 10.

Thanks for the rankings Karl

1. I was considering dropping Jefferson lower, but the way they slaughtered Eastview stopped me from doing that.

2. For the NWSC teams, I found it easier to rank them as a bloc and then integrate that into the standings of the rest.
Against each other:
Centennial 3-2-1
Maple Grove 2-2-1
Elk River 2-3-1
Blaine 1-3-1

That's an important part of Blaine is where it is. Also, I am noticing that I'm perhaps a bit reactionary to losses, especially ones that occur on Saturday (same thing applies to Benilde, then). But Blaine still has a big chance to move up a number of places with a win over MG. If they lose, I don't think they'll drop at all. While they do have an impressive win over East, their loss to Edina was not close, and their nonconference schedule is otherwise quite weak.

As for Cent vs. DE, I was torn on them for a while. But if we're going to use the common opponent argument with Blaine, we should also include WBL, ER, and Moorhead, their other common, good opponents. East is 3-0 against these teams, while Centennial is 1-1-2.

Blaine is actually 2-2-1 against top NWSC teams. They defeated ER and MG. Blaine has been losing these games closely with the absence of key players.

Good catch. I'll fix that.

I'm going to keep them where they are, though. Of the 4 NWSC teams, they're simply not as hot as the other 3 right now. That could change in a hurry with a win over MG, though.

[MNHockey75]

2/15

1. Eden Prairie 20-3
2. Bloomington Jefferson 22-1
3. Edina 19-4
4. Duluth East 19-3-1
5. Minnetonka 17-6
6. Centennial 17-3-3
7. Blaine 19-3-1
8. Academy of Holy Angels 19-4-1
9. Maple Grove 18-2-3
10. Benilde-St. Margaret’s 17-6
11. Woodbury 19-3-2
12. Elk River 15-7-1
13. Wayzata 14-8-1
14. Hopkins 14-8-1
15. Cretin-Derham Hall 15-7-1
ORV: Hill-Murray, Moorhead, White Bear Lake, Burnsville, Eagan

[northhockey23]

rankings look good karl, this seems like a hard year to rank teams, as they really have all beaten each other in some way.

[Roseauverrated]

rankings look good karl, this seems like a hard year to rank teams, as they really have all beaten each other in some way.

That pretty much happens every season.

[MrBoDangles]

Centennial and Blaine are 2-1-1 against Edina and Duluth East, this leads me to believe that these two teams would be doing no better in the NWSC. Put any of the other top teams in the conference and you would likely have the same result. Having a team from this years toughest conference ranked no higher than 5th is a laugher.

[HShockeywatcher]

MrBoDangles,
It's like the WCHA or the SEC in other sports, or Missota (in football) is the best MSHSL example, they have many losses, they can't possibly be a top team

[karl(east)]

rankings look good karl, this seems like a hard year to rank teams, as they really have all beaten each other in some way.

That pretty much happens every season.

True, up to a point.

I wasn't doing this last year, but if memory serves, we were pretty sure of 5 teams that had a realistic shot at winning a state title. Beyond Edina, Tonka, BSM, Roseau, and Hill, everyone else seemed to be on the outside looking in. This year, I'd say we have 10 teams with a realistic shot, and very little separation between them.

The big issue with that is that all 10 fall into 4 sections. And really, there isn't a dull section race anywhere this year. 1AA and 4AA look to be wide-open. 3AA has a front-runner, but 2 other teams are right there with a chance. 7AA and 8AA look to have two quality programs battling in the title game. 5AA and 2AA are loaded with 3 top-10 teams each. And then there's section 6AA, which will be having a better quarterfinal matchup than several sections' finals. It should be very fun to follow.

[gophermadman]

Centennial and Blaine are 2-1-1 against Edina and Duluth East, this leads me to believe that these two teams would be doing no better in the NWSC. Put any of the other top teams in the conference and you would likely have the same result. Having a team from this years toughest conference ranked no higher than 5th is a laugher.

makes perfect sense. Its not the toughest conference this year, and thats where they deserve to be ranked.

[HShockeywatcher]

name a tougher one...

[MrBoDangles]

Centennial and Blaine are 2-1-1 against Edina and Duluth East, this leads me to believe that these two teams would be doing no better in the NWSC. Put any of the other top teams in the conference and you would likely have the same result. Having a team from this years toughest conference ranked no higher than 5th is a laugher.

makes perfect sense. Its not the toughest conference this year, and thats where they deserve to be ranked.

Another Laugher!

[karl(east)]

name a tougher one...

Well, it depends how you define "toughness."

No one is going to dispute that the four teams at the top of the NWSC are the best group of 4 in a conference. But the NWSC does have a bit of an underbelly. Andover is decent, but beyond that, there's Osseo, Champlin Park, Coon Rapids, North Metro, and Anoka, none of which are going to turn any heads.

The Classic Lake also has 4 very good teams, though not quite as good top-to-bottom as the NWSC. The fifth team is bad, yes. But the important bit here is that there are only 5 teams, and thus room for a ton of nonconference games. Edina and Minnetonka have taken full advantage of that and loaded up with the two hardest schedules in the state. Thus, the flexibility of the Classic Lake ultimately makes it "tougher," at least for the teams that take advantage of the opportunity.

In general, I'd just like to say that I hate conferences.

[MrBoDangles]

Centennial and Blaine are 2-1-1 against Edina and Duluth East, this leads me to believe that these two teams would be doing no better in the NWSC. Put any of the other top teams in the conference and you would likely have the same result. Having a team from this years toughest conference ranked no higher than 5th is a laugher.

Another one for you to tackle karl(east).

[karl(east)]

Centennial and Blaine are 2-1-1 against Edina and Duluth East, this leads me to believe that these two teams would be doing no better in the NWSC. Put any of the other top teams in the conference and you would likely have the same result. Having a team from this years toughest conference ranked no higher than 5th is a laugher.

Another one for you to tackle karl(east).

Be patient. My rankings don't take future schedule into account.

The NWSC will sort itself out. Trust me.

If Blaine beats MG, they will jump. A lot. It will also help out Centennial, as it will validate their win over Blaine and make the MG loss look a bit more fluky. In fact, the mere occurrence of that game will help out Centennial, no matter the result.