AA Rankings for 2/14/10
Posted: Sat Feb 13, 2010 11:18 pm
Only one week to go to sections, and things are falling into place for some great playoff hockey. I made my sections bracket today; by this time next week, one AA team will already be gone after the 8AA play-in. Not quite sure what format I’ll use for next week’s rankings; we’ll see when we get there. There are still some important games to be played, though.
The second record is the team’s record against all teams that were ranked in the top 15 at any point this year. It also includes STA, Breck, Warroad, Hermantown, Mahtomedi, and various major non-MSHSL teams.
1. Minnetonka (21-1-1/11-1-1)
-#1 is undefeated no more. The loss can be interpreted two ways--it might mean the Skippers can now focus, stop worrying about chasing the ‘93 Jags, and go out and win the state championship so many expect of them. Or it might mean that this mighty team is vulnerable after all. The Wayzata rematch will be huge for the team psyche heading into the playoffs. A win, they’re locked in at #1; a loss, they’re not even the top seed in their own section, and doubt might start to creep in. Time to see how they respond to a little adversity.
This week: Thurs vs. #2 Wayzata, Sat at Buffalo
2. Wayzata (19-2-2/10-2-2)
-Rolled over three weak opponents in preparation for the Tonka rematch. This will be only the second 1-vs.-2 game (by my rankings) this year; the first one was a complete dud, as Tonka slaughtered Edina 7-1. I expect a much more intense game this time around.
This week: Thurs at #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Hopkins
3. Edina (15-6-2/10-6-1)
-So a week after I put them at #9, they get a huge win and go flying upwards in the standings. Does this mean I’m second-guessing last week’s ranking? Not at all. Edina came in to the Tonka game flat, and throughout the first period they looked worse than a #9 team; they looked like a directionless shell of the group that marched through all the tough competition at the beginning of the year. But somehow, between the first and second periods, they unlocked it again, launched themselves back into the top 5. I like to make teams earn rankings instead of coasting on past achievements. The Hornets did that this week, and in a big way.
Before I start sounding like a Hornet-worshipper, let me back off…this team has its flaws, to be sure, and one great game doesn’t necessarily mean the ills that plagued them over the past month won’t come back. They’ll have to beat two very good teams to make the state tournament, which will be a tall order. But for now, they belong here, and this week they get to wrap up their season against two pretty weak wins (especially by the standards of their schedule).
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at Armstrong
4. Eden Prairie (17-4-1/7-4-1)
-After two weeks that led me to question their play down the stretch, the Eagles reminded everyone of their ability with a huge come-from-behind win at Jefferson. Now firmly in the driver’s seat in the Lake race, they can start the preparations for a challenging run through sections. They close out the season with a busy but manageable week against the second tier of the Lake.
This week: Tues at Eastview, Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. Apple Valley
5. Bloomington Jefferson (17-4-2/8-3-2)
-Let one slip away against EP and find themselves still lacking that big win they need to assert their presence among the elite. From a ranking perspective, that makes this week’s game against Burnsville essential. They’ve also got their grudge match against Lakeville North; we’ll see how they handle that one.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville North, Sat vs. #6 Burnsville
6. Burnsville (14-6-3/5-5-2)
-Shut out a couple of Lake cellar dwellers to go to 12-1-1 in their last 14. After one more easy win, they have a huge matchup with Jefferson. A win would be quite the exclamation point to put atop this late season run and would cement their position as a legitimate title contender.
This week: Thurs at Rosemount, Sat at #5 Bloomington Jefferson
7. Blaine (16-4-3/8-4-3)
-Losing to Centennial raises some serious questions for a team that’s skated along a fine line all year, but seeing as it was their first loss to a team out of the top 3, I’ll keep them ahead of their section and conference rival for now. After watching the game, I think they’re far too reliant on the power play, and after they went down Centennial smothered them for the rest of the night. Two opponents that should not be taken for granted this week, as they tied both in their first meetings; the Bengals need to be careful and close out the season on a high note.
This week: Thurs vs. Maple Grove, Sat vs. #14 Andover
8. Hill-Murray (20-2-1/6-2-1)
-Carried on with their romp through the CSC and became the second AA team to reach 20 wins, but their SOS continues to hold them back. To that effect, a good showing against Moorhead this week will help them out a bit. I’m keeping them behind Blaine for now because of the Schwan Cup loss, but I expect them to climb a little in next week’s rankings once we’ve sorted out the NWSC and the Lake unless they lose to the Spuds.
This week: Tues at St. Paul North, Sat at #15 Moorhead
9. Centennial (15-5-3/7-5-3)
-Continued their hard charge over the past month with a big win over Blaine, though the inability to finish off Elk River despite a large shot advantage keeps them from jumping any further. Like Blaine, the have two challenges left in this final week and must play well to maintain a high ranking.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Andover, Sat at Osseo
10. Eagan 3-4-1
-The Wildcats slide back through no real fault of their own; other teams with more impressive achievements simply jumped ahead of them. One last potentially competitive game against Apple Valley this week, which may have section seeding implications. But they should be able to sail on ahead into the 3AA playoffs as a top seed.
This week: Thurs at Apple Valley, Sat vs. Rosemount
11. Duluth East (14-5-4/4-5-4)
-The Hounds survived a scare against archrival Cloquet in their only game this week and now look to close out the season against two Metro teams. Then the real fun begins; their likely first round opponents are either the ever-dangerous Cloquet or St. Francis’s Joey Benik show.
This week: Tues at Hastings, Sat vs. Tartan
12. Elk River (14-6-3/6-6-3)
-Clawed out a tie against Centennial this week, which looks good now that the Cougars have beaten Blaine, but I held off on pulling them up with Centennial since Blaine handled them just a week ago. One more important conference matchup as they close out their season and coast into the 7AA playoffs as the top seed.
This week: Thurs at Osseo, Sat at Champlin Park
13. Holy Angels (14-7-1/2-6-1)
-Thumped Prior Lake in their only game this past week. Next up are the last two Missota teams on the schedule, followed by what should be a competitive game against Benilde.
This week: Tues at Hutchinson, Thurs vs. Red Wing, Fri at Benilde-St. Margaret’s
14. Andover (16-5-2/3-5-2)
-Took care of business this past week, but have a very difficult week looming with both top-10 NWSC teams on the docket. Time to see just how much they’ve improved over the course of the season.
This week: Thurs at #9 Centennial, Sat at #7 Blaine
15. Moorhead (11-9-2/2-8-2)
-The Spuds took care of business against other 8AA contenders this week, besting both Bemidji and Brainerd for the second time this year. The wins cement them as the top seed in 8AA and give the high ranking more credibility. One last tough matchup this week, as Hill-Murray comes up for a visit.
This week: Fri vs. Alexandria, Sat vs. #15 Hill-Murray
On the Bubble
Lakeville South (15-8/3-8)
-It was tempting to throw them up in the top 15 for the sheer novelty of having a ranked 1AA team, but their losses to the top Lake teams just haven’t been close enough for me to make the push. One last shot at a top team this week as they host Eden Prairie.
Maple Grove (12-8-3/3-8-3)
-Stemmed a string of late season losses by pulling one out against Osseo. No real bad results on the schedule, either.
Brainerd (19-3/1-2)
-Second loss to Moorhead keeps them out of the top 15. It was more competitive this time around, meaning that strong record isn’t a complete product of a weak schedule, but they’re still on the outside looking in.
Woodbury (15-7-2/1-5)
-Wrapped up at least a share of the SEC and can win it outright by knocking off Cretin. Their earlier win against CDH gives them the nudge ahead of the Raiders for now.
Cretin-Derham Hall (17-7/2-3)
-Picked up an important win over WBL and are primed for the season-ending showdown with Woodbury. The winner of that game will jump a few spots next week.
Benilde-St. Margaret’s (15-5-3/2-5-2)
-Ugliness abounds as they barely salvage a tie against Totino-Grace. Not headed in the right direction at the moment; may have a huge challenge on their hands in Hopkins in the 6AA quarters.
Osseo (13-7-3/2-6-3)
-Late season march of tough losses continues; now limping into sections after that strong start.
Forest Lake (15-6-2/2-3-1)
-Continue to make a strong push to the end of the season.
Apple Valley (14-9/0-7)
-Picked up a couple of Lake wins; huge final week with Eagan and EP on the schedule.
On the outside of the outside looking in
White Bear Lake
Roseau
Tartan
Stillwater
Grand Rapids
And for one last time this year, we’ll take a glance at each section. This week I’ve listed the top seeds in each section, as I see them. The number in parenthesis is the team’s state rank.
1AA
1. Lakeville South (16)
2. Rochester Century
3. Lakeville North
4. Winona, I guess
-Oh, does this one get ugly as we head down the list. South remains way ahead of the rest of the field.
2AA
1. Edina (3)
2. Bloomington Jefferson/Burnsville winner (5/6)
3. BJ/Burns loser
4. Holy Angels (13)
-Could be seeded several different ways; the bottom line is that we have 4 very good teams, and the section champion will have picked up two huge wins.
3AA
1. Eagan (10)
2. CDH/Woodbury winner (19/20)
3. CDH/Wbry loser
4. Apple Valley (24)
-Pretty straightforward, with the championship shaping up to be a face-off between the Lake and the SEC.
4AA
1. Hill-Murray (8)
2. White Bear Lake (25)
3. Tartan (27)
4. Stillwater (28)
-The wide gulf between #1 and the rest remains intact, though that doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion.
5AA
1. Centennial (9)
2. Blaine (7)
3. Maple Grove (17)
4. Osseo (22)
-There’s room for a very good argument on the top seed here; I gave it to Centennial on the basis of the head-to-head result. But as with Section 2, there’s no real advantage to getting the 1 over the 2, as both likely semifinal opponents look pretty equal.
6AA
1. Tonka/Wayzata winner (1/2)
2. Tonka/Wayzata loser
3. Eden Prairie (5)
4. Benilde (21)
-With Benilde sagging, the top seed gets even more valuable; avoiding EP in the semifinals is a valuable prize. But both Benilde--and Hopkins, for that matter--could ride a hot goalie to an upset if the top team doesn’t bring its A game. Either way, the last few games in this one should be spectacular.
7AA
1. Elk River (12)
2. Duluth East (11)
3. Andover (14)
4. Forest Lake (23)
5. Grand Rapids (29)
-Wide open; any of the top 5 teams are capable of beating each other and winning the thing, though they do fall into a pretty logical order when it comes to seeding. Cloquet will be a dangerous quarterfinal opponent for one of the top 3.
8AA
1. Moorhead (15)
2. Brainerd (18)
3. Roseau (26)
4. St. Cloud Tech
-The Rams’ late-season swoon means we might have a new team playing Moorhead for the title this time around. Otherwise, pretty straightforward. Bemidji is a mild upset threat; they’ve given each of the top 3 a 1-goal game this year.
The second record is the team’s record against all teams that were ranked in the top 15 at any point this year. It also includes STA, Breck, Warroad, Hermantown, Mahtomedi, and various major non-MSHSL teams.
1. Minnetonka (21-1-1/11-1-1)
-#1 is undefeated no more. The loss can be interpreted two ways--it might mean the Skippers can now focus, stop worrying about chasing the ‘93 Jags, and go out and win the state championship so many expect of them. Or it might mean that this mighty team is vulnerable after all. The Wayzata rematch will be huge for the team psyche heading into the playoffs. A win, they’re locked in at #1; a loss, they’re not even the top seed in their own section, and doubt might start to creep in. Time to see how they respond to a little adversity.
This week: Thurs vs. #2 Wayzata, Sat at Buffalo
2. Wayzata (19-2-2/10-2-2)
-Rolled over three weak opponents in preparation for the Tonka rematch. This will be only the second 1-vs.-2 game (by my rankings) this year; the first one was a complete dud, as Tonka slaughtered Edina 7-1. I expect a much more intense game this time around.
This week: Thurs at #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Hopkins
3. Edina (15-6-2/10-6-1)
-So a week after I put them at #9, they get a huge win and go flying upwards in the standings. Does this mean I’m second-guessing last week’s ranking? Not at all. Edina came in to the Tonka game flat, and throughout the first period they looked worse than a #9 team; they looked like a directionless shell of the group that marched through all the tough competition at the beginning of the year. But somehow, between the first and second periods, they unlocked it again, launched themselves back into the top 5. I like to make teams earn rankings instead of coasting on past achievements. The Hornets did that this week, and in a big way.
Before I start sounding like a Hornet-worshipper, let me back off…this team has its flaws, to be sure, and one great game doesn’t necessarily mean the ills that plagued them over the past month won’t come back. They’ll have to beat two very good teams to make the state tournament, which will be a tall order. But for now, they belong here, and this week they get to wrap up their season against two pretty weak wins (especially by the standards of their schedule).
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at Armstrong
4. Eden Prairie (17-4-1/7-4-1)
-After two weeks that led me to question their play down the stretch, the Eagles reminded everyone of their ability with a huge come-from-behind win at Jefferson. Now firmly in the driver’s seat in the Lake race, they can start the preparations for a challenging run through sections. They close out the season with a busy but manageable week against the second tier of the Lake.
This week: Tues at Eastview, Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. Apple Valley
5. Bloomington Jefferson (17-4-2/8-3-2)
-Let one slip away against EP and find themselves still lacking that big win they need to assert their presence among the elite. From a ranking perspective, that makes this week’s game against Burnsville essential. They’ve also got their grudge match against Lakeville North; we’ll see how they handle that one.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville North, Sat vs. #6 Burnsville
6. Burnsville (14-6-3/5-5-2)
-Shut out a couple of Lake cellar dwellers to go to 12-1-1 in their last 14. After one more easy win, they have a huge matchup with Jefferson. A win would be quite the exclamation point to put atop this late season run and would cement their position as a legitimate title contender.
This week: Thurs at Rosemount, Sat at #5 Bloomington Jefferson
7. Blaine (16-4-3/8-4-3)
-Losing to Centennial raises some serious questions for a team that’s skated along a fine line all year, but seeing as it was their first loss to a team out of the top 3, I’ll keep them ahead of their section and conference rival for now. After watching the game, I think they’re far too reliant on the power play, and after they went down Centennial smothered them for the rest of the night. Two opponents that should not be taken for granted this week, as they tied both in their first meetings; the Bengals need to be careful and close out the season on a high note.
This week: Thurs vs. Maple Grove, Sat vs. #14 Andover
8. Hill-Murray (20-2-1/6-2-1)
-Carried on with their romp through the CSC and became the second AA team to reach 20 wins, but their SOS continues to hold them back. To that effect, a good showing against Moorhead this week will help them out a bit. I’m keeping them behind Blaine for now because of the Schwan Cup loss, but I expect them to climb a little in next week’s rankings once we’ve sorted out the NWSC and the Lake unless they lose to the Spuds.
This week: Tues at St. Paul North, Sat at #15 Moorhead
9. Centennial (15-5-3/7-5-3)
-Continued their hard charge over the past month with a big win over Blaine, though the inability to finish off Elk River despite a large shot advantage keeps them from jumping any further. Like Blaine, the have two challenges left in this final week and must play well to maintain a high ranking.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Andover, Sat at Osseo
10. Eagan 3-4-1
-The Wildcats slide back through no real fault of their own; other teams with more impressive achievements simply jumped ahead of them. One last potentially competitive game against Apple Valley this week, which may have section seeding implications. But they should be able to sail on ahead into the 3AA playoffs as a top seed.
This week: Thurs at Apple Valley, Sat vs. Rosemount
11. Duluth East (14-5-4/4-5-4)
-The Hounds survived a scare against archrival Cloquet in their only game this week and now look to close out the season against two Metro teams. Then the real fun begins; their likely first round opponents are either the ever-dangerous Cloquet or St. Francis’s Joey Benik show.
This week: Tues at Hastings, Sat vs. Tartan
12. Elk River (14-6-3/6-6-3)
-Clawed out a tie against Centennial this week, which looks good now that the Cougars have beaten Blaine, but I held off on pulling them up with Centennial since Blaine handled them just a week ago. One more important conference matchup as they close out their season and coast into the 7AA playoffs as the top seed.
This week: Thurs at Osseo, Sat at Champlin Park
13. Holy Angels (14-7-1/2-6-1)
-Thumped Prior Lake in their only game this past week. Next up are the last two Missota teams on the schedule, followed by what should be a competitive game against Benilde.
This week: Tues at Hutchinson, Thurs vs. Red Wing, Fri at Benilde-St. Margaret’s
14. Andover (16-5-2/3-5-2)
-Took care of business this past week, but have a very difficult week looming with both top-10 NWSC teams on the docket. Time to see just how much they’ve improved over the course of the season.
This week: Thurs at #9 Centennial, Sat at #7 Blaine
15. Moorhead (11-9-2/2-8-2)
-The Spuds took care of business against other 8AA contenders this week, besting both Bemidji and Brainerd for the second time this year. The wins cement them as the top seed in 8AA and give the high ranking more credibility. One last tough matchup this week, as Hill-Murray comes up for a visit.
This week: Fri vs. Alexandria, Sat vs. #15 Hill-Murray
On the Bubble
Lakeville South (15-8/3-8)
-It was tempting to throw them up in the top 15 for the sheer novelty of having a ranked 1AA team, but their losses to the top Lake teams just haven’t been close enough for me to make the push. One last shot at a top team this week as they host Eden Prairie.
Maple Grove (12-8-3/3-8-3)
-Stemmed a string of late season losses by pulling one out against Osseo. No real bad results on the schedule, either.
Brainerd (19-3/1-2)
-Second loss to Moorhead keeps them out of the top 15. It was more competitive this time around, meaning that strong record isn’t a complete product of a weak schedule, but they’re still on the outside looking in.
Woodbury (15-7-2/1-5)
-Wrapped up at least a share of the SEC and can win it outright by knocking off Cretin. Their earlier win against CDH gives them the nudge ahead of the Raiders for now.
Cretin-Derham Hall (17-7/2-3)
-Picked up an important win over WBL and are primed for the season-ending showdown with Woodbury. The winner of that game will jump a few spots next week.
Benilde-St. Margaret’s (15-5-3/2-5-2)
-Ugliness abounds as they barely salvage a tie against Totino-Grace. Not headed in the right direction at the moment; may have a huge challenge on their hands in Hopkins in the 6AA quarters.
Osseo (13-7-3/2-6-3)
-Late season march of tough losses continues; now limping into sections after that strong start.
Forest Lake (15-6-2/2-3-1)
-Continue to make a strong push to the end of the season.
Apple Valley (14-9/0-7)
-Picked up a couple of Lake wins; huge final week with Eagan and EP on the schedule.
On the outside of the outside looking in
White Bear Lake
Roseau
Tartan
Stillwater
Grand Rapids
And for one last time this year, we’ll take a glance at each section. This week I’ve listed the top seeds in each section, as I see them. The number in parenthesis is the team’s state rank.
1AA
1. Lakeville South (16)
2. Rochester Century
3. Lakeville North
4. Winona, I guess
-Oh, does this one get ugly as we head down the list. South remains way ahead of the rest of the field.
2AA
1. Edina (3)
2. Bloomington Jefferson/Burnsville winner (5/6)
3. BJ/Burns loser
4. Holy Angels (13)
-Could be seeded several different ways; the bottom line is that we have 4 very good teams, and the section champion will have picked up two huge wins.
3AA
1. Eagan (10)
2. CDH/Woodbury winner (19/20)
3. CDH/Wbry loser
4. Apple Valley (24)
-Pretty straightforward, with the championship shaping up to be a face-off between the Lake and the SEC.
4AA
1. Hill-Murray (8)
2. White Bear Lake (25)
3. Tartan (27)
4. Stillwater (28)
-The wide gulf between #1 and the rest remains intact, though that doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion.
5AA
1. Centennial (9)
2. Blaine (7)
3. Maple Grove (17)
4. Osseo (22)
-There’s room for a very good argument on the top seed here; I gave it to Centennial on the basis of the head-to-head result. But as with Section 2, there’s no real advantage to getting the 1 over the 2, as both likely semifinal opponents look pretty equal.
6AA
1. Tonka/Wayzata winner (1/2)
2. Tonka/Wayzata loser
3. Eden Prairie (5)
4. Benilde (21)
-With Benilde sagging, the top seed gets even more valuable; avoiding EP in the semifinals is a valuable prize. But both Benilde--and Hopkins, for that matter--could ride a hot goalie to an upset if the top team doesn’t bring its A game. Either way, the last few games in this one should be spectacular.
7AA
1. Elk River (12)
2. Duluth East (11)
3. Andover (14)
4. Forest Lake (23)
5. Grand Rapids (29)
-Wide open; any of the top 5 teams are capable of beating each other and winning the thing, though they do fall into a pretty logical order when it comes to seeding. Cloquet will be a dangerous quarterfinal opponent for one of the top 3.
8AA
1. Moorhead (15)
2. Brainerd (18)
3. Roseau (26)
4. St. Cloud Tech
-The Rams’ late-season swoon means we might have a new team playing Moorhead for the title this time around. Otherwise, pretty straightforward. Bemidji is a mild upset threat; they’ve given each of the top 3 a 1-goal game this year.