AA Rankings for 2/14/10
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
-
- Posts: 6480
- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:03 pm
- Contact:
AA Rankings for 2/14/10
Only one week to go to sections, and things are falling into place for some great playoff hockey. I made my sections bracket today; by this time next week, one AA team will already be gone after the 8AA play-in. Not quite sure what format I’ll use for next week’s rankings; we’ll see when we get there. There are still some important games to be played, though.
The second record is the team’s record against all teams that were ranked in the top 15 at any point this year. It also includes STA, Breck, Warroad, Hermantown, Mahtomedi, and various major non-MSHSL teams.
1. Minnetonka (21-1-1/11-1-1)
-#1 is undefeated no more. The loss can be interpreted two ways--it might mean the Skippers can now focus, stop worrying about chasing the ‘93 Jags, and go out and win the state championship so many expect of them. Or it might mean that this mighty team is vulnerable after all. The Wayzata rematch will be huge for the team psyche heading into the playoffs. A win, they’re locked in at #1; a loss, they’re not even the top seed in their own section, and doubt might start to creep in. Time to see how they respond to a little adversity.
This week: Thurs vs. #2 Wayzata, Sat at Buffalo
2. Wayzata (19-2-2/10-2-2)
-Rolled over three weak opponents in preparation for the Tonka rematch. This will be only the second 1-vs.-2 game (by my rankings) this year; the first one was a complete dud, as Tonka slaughtered Edina 7-1. I expect a much more intense game this time around.
This week: Thurs at #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Hopkins
3. Edina (15-6-2/10-6-1)
-So a week after I put them at #9, they get a huge win and go flying upwards in the standings. Does this mean I’m second-guessing last week’s ranking? Not at all. Edina came in to the Tonka game flat, and throughout the first period they looked worse than a #9 team; they looked like a directionless shell of the group that marched through all the tough competition at the beginning of the year. But somehow, between the first and second periods, they unlocked it again, launched themselves back into the top 5. I like to make teams earn rankings instead of coasting on past achievements. The Hornets did that this week, and in a big way.
Before I start sounding like a Hornet-worshipper, let me back off…this team has its flaws, to be sure, and one great game doesn’t necessarily mean the ills that plagued them over the past month won’t come back. They’ll have to beat two very good teams to make the state tournament, which will be a tall order. But for now, they belong here, and this week they get to wrap up their season against two pretty weak wins (especially by the standards of their schedule).
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at Armstrong
4. Eden Prairie (17-4-1/7-4-1)
-After two weeks that led me to question their play down the stretch, the Eagles reminded everyone of their ability with a huge come-from-behind win at Jefferson. Now firmly in the driver’s seat in the Lake race, they can start the preparations for a challenging run through sections. They close out the season with a busy but manageable week against the second tier of the Lake.
This week: Tues at Eastview, Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. Apple Valley
5. Bloomington Jefferson (17-4-2/8-3-2)
-Let one slip away against EP and find themselves still lacking that big win they need to assert their presence among the elite. From a ranking perspective, that makes this week’s game against Burnsville essential. They’ve also got their grudge match against Lakeville North; we’ll see how they handle that one.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville North, Sat vs. #6 Burnsville
6. Burnsville (14-6-3/5-5-2)
-Shut out a couple of Lake cellar dwellers to go to 12-1-1 in their last 14. After one more easy win, they have a huge matchup with Jefferson. A win would be quite the exclamation point to put atop this late season run and would cement their position as a legitimate title contender.
This week: Thurs at Rosemount, Sat at #5 Bloomington Jefferson
7. Blaine (16-4-3/8-4-3)
-Losing to Centennial raises some serious questions for a team that’s skated along a fine line all year, but seeing as it was their first loss to a team out of the top 3, I’ll keep them ahead of their section and conference rival for now. After watching the game, I think they’re far too reliant on the power play, and after they went down Centennial smothered them for the rest of the night. Two opponents that should not be taken for granted this week, as they tied both in their first meetings; the Bengals need to be careful and close out the season on a high note.
This week: Thurs vs. Maple Grove, Sat vs. #14 Andover
8. Hill-Murray (20-2-1/6-2-1)
-Carried on with their romp through the CSC and became the second AA team to reach 20 wins, but their SOS continues to hold them back. To that effect, a good showing against Moorhead this week will help them out a bit. I’m keeping them behind Blaine for now because of the Schwan Cup loss, but I expect them to climb a little in next week’s rankings once we’ve sorted out the NWSC and the Lake unless they lose to the Spuds.
This week: Tues at St. Paul North, Sat at #15 Moorhead
9. Centennial (15-5-3/7-5-3)
-Continued their hard charge over the past month with a big win over Blaine, though the inability to finish off Elk River despite a large shot advantage keeps them from jumping any further. Like Blaine, the have two challenges left in this final week and must play well to maintain a high ranking.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Andover, Sat at Osseo
10. Eagan 3-4-1
-The Wildcats slide back through no real fault of their own; other teams with more impressive achievements simply jumped ahead of them. One last potentially competitive game against Apple Valley this week, which may have section seeding implications. But they should be able to sail on ahead into the 3AA playoffs as a top seed.
This week: Thurs at Apple Valley, Sat vs. Rosemount
11. Duluth East (14-5-4/4-5-4)
-The Hounds survived a scare against archrival Cloquet in their only game this week and now look to close out the season against two Metro teams. Then the real fun begins; their likely first round opponents are either the ever-dangerous Cloquet or St. Francis’s Joey Benik show.
This week: Tues at Hastings, Sat vs. Tartan
12. Elk River (14-6-3/6-6-3)
-Clawed out a tie against Centennial this week, which looks good now that the Cougars have beaten Blaine, but I held off on pulling them up with Centennial since Blaine handled them just a week ago. One more important conference matchup as they close out their season and coast into the 7AA playoffs as the top seed.
This week: Thurs at Osseo, Sat at Champlin Park
13. Holy Angels (14-7-1/2-6-1)
-Thumped Prior Lake in their only game this past week. Next up are the last two Missota teams on the schedule, followed by what should be a competitive game against Benilde.
This week: Tues at Hutchinson, Thurs vs. Red Wing, Fri at Benilde-St. Margaret’s
14. Andover (16-5-2/3-5-2)
-Took care of business this past week, but have a very difficult week looming with both top-10 NWSC teams on the docket. Time to see just how much they’ve improved over the course of the season.
This week: Thurs at #9 Centennial, Sat at #7 Blaine
15. Moorhead (11-9-2/2-8-2)
-The Spuds took care of business against other 8AA contenders this week, besting both Bemidji and Brainerd for the second time this year. The wins cement them as the top seed in 8AA and give the high ranking more credibility. One last tough matchup this week, as Hill-Murray comes up for a visit.
This week: Fri vs. Alexandria, Sat vs. #15 Hill-Murray
On the Bubble
Lakeville South (15-8/3-8)
-It was tempting to throw them up in the top 15 for the sheer novelty of having a ranked 1AA team, but their losses to the top Lake teams just haven’t been close enough for me to make the push. One last shot at a top team this week as they host Eden Prairie.
Maple Grove (12-8-3/3-8-3)
-Stemmed a string of late season losses by pulling one out against Osseo. No real bad results on the schedule, either.
Brainerd (19-3/1-2)
-Second loss to Moorhead keeps them out of the top 15. It was more competitive this time around, meaning that strong record isn’t a complete product of a weak schedule, but they’re still on the outside looking in.
Woodbury (15-7-2/1-5)
-Wrapped up at least a share of the SEC and can win it outright by knocking off Cretin. Their earlier win against CDH gives them the nudge ahead of the Raiders for now.
Cretin-Derham Hall (17-7/2-3)
-Picked up an important win over WBL and are primed for the season-ending showdown with Woodbury. The winner of that game will jump a few spots next week.
Benilde-St. Margaret’s (15-5-3/2-5-2)
-Ugliness abounds as they barely salvage a tie against Totino-Grace. Not headed in the right direction at the moment; may have a huge challenge on their hands in Hopkins in the 6AA quarters.
Osseo (13-7-3/2-6-3)
-Late season march of tough losses continues; now limping into sections after that strong start.
Forest Lake (15-6-2/2-3-1)
-Continue to make a strong push to the end of the season.
Apple Valley (14-9/0-7)
-Picked up a couple of Lake wins; huge final week with Eagan and EP on the schedule.
On the outside of the outside looking in
White Bear Lake
Roseau
Tartan
Stillwater
Grand Rapids
And for one last time this year, we’ll take a glance at each section. This week I’ve listed the top seeds in each section, as I see them. The number in parenthesis is the team’s state rank.
1AA
1. Lakeville South (16)
2. Rochester Century
3. Lakeville North
4. Winona, I guess
-Oh, does this one get ugly as we head down the list. South remains way ahead of the rest of the field.
2AA
1. Edina (3)
2. Bloomington Jefferson/Burnsville winner (5/6)
3. BJ/Burns loser
4. Holy Angels (13)
-Could be seeded several different ways; the bottom line is that we have 4 very good teams, and the section champion will have picked up two huge wins.
3AA
1. Eagan (10)
2. CDH/Woodbury winner (19/20)
3. CDH/Wbry loser
4. Apple Valley (24)
-Pretty straightforward, with the championship shaping up to be a face-off between the Lake and the SEC.
4AA
1. Hill-Murray (8)
2. White Bear Lake (25)
3. Tartan (27)
4. Stillwater (28)
-The wide gulf between #1 and the rest remains intact, though that doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion.
5AA
1. Centennial (9)
2. Blaine (7)
3. Maple Grove (17)
4. Osseo (22)
-There’s room for a very good argument on the top seed here; I gave it to Centennial on the basis of the head-to-head result. But as with Section 2, there’s no real advantage to getting the 1 over the 2, as both likely semifinal opponents look pretty equal.
6AA
1. Tonka/Wayzata winner (1/2)
2. Tonka/Wayzata loser
3. Eden Prairie (5)
4. Benilde (21)
-With Benilde sagging, the top seed gets even more valuable; avoiding EP in the semifinals is a valuable prize. But both Benilde--and Hopkins, for that matter--could ride a hot goalie to an upset if the top team doesn’t bring its A game. Either way, the last few games in this one should be spectacular.
7AA
1. Elk River (12)
2. Duluth East (11)
3. Andover (14)
4. Forest Lake (23)
5. Grand Rapids (29)
-Wide open; any of the top 5 teams are capable of beating each other and winning the thing, though they do fall into a pretty logical order when it comes to seeding. Cloquet will be a dangerous quarterfinal opponent for one of the top 3.
8AA
1. Moorhead (15)
2. Brainerd (18)
3. Roseau (26)
4. St. Cloud Tech
-The Rams’ late-season swoon means we might have a new team playing Moorhead for the title this time around. Otherwise, pretty straightforward. Bemidji is a mild upset threat; they’ve given each of the top 3 a 1-goal game this year.
The second record is the team’s record against all teams that were ranked in the top 15 at any point this year. It also includes STA, Breck, Warroad, Hermantown, Mahtomedi, and various major non-MSHSL teams.
1. Minnetonka (21-1-1/11-1-1)
-#1 is undefeated no more. The loss can be interpreted two ways--it might mean the Skippers can now focus, stop worrying about chasing the ‘93 Jags, and go out and win the state championship so many expect of them. Or it might mean that this mighty team is vulnerable after all. The Wayzata rematch will be huge for the team psyche heading into the playoffs. A win, they’re locked in at #1; a loss, they’re not even the top seed in their own section, and doubt might start to creep in. Time to see how they respond to a little adversity.
This week: Thurs vs. #2 Wayzata, Sat at Buffalo
2. Wayzata (19-2-2/10-2-2)
-Rolled over three weak opponents in preparation for the Tonka rematch. This will be only the second 1-vs.-2 game (by my rankings) this year; the first one was a complete dud, as Tonka slaughtered Edina 7-1. I expect a much more intense game this time around.
This week: Thurs at #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Hopkins
3. Edina (15-6-2/10-6-1)
-So a week after I put them at #9, they get a huge win and go flying upwards in the standings. Does this mean I’m second-guessing last week’s ranking? Not at all. Edina came in to the Tonka game flat, and throughout the first period they looked worse than a #9 team; they looked like a directionless shell of the group that marched through all the tough competition at the beginning of the year. But somehow, between the first and second periods, they unlocked it again, launched themselves back into the top 5. I like to make teams earn rankings instead of coasting on past achievements. The Hornets did that this week, and in a big way.
Before I start sounding like a Hornet-worshipper, let me back off…this team has its flaws, to be sure, and one great game doesn’t necessarily mean the ills that plagued them over the past month won’t come back. They’ll have to beat two very good teams to make the state tournament, which will be a tall order. But for now, they belong here, and this week they get to wrap up their season against two pretty weak wins (especially by the standards of their schedule).
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at Armstrong
4. Eden Prairie (17-4-1/7-4-1)
-After two weeks that led me to question their play down the stretch, the Eagles reminded everyone of their ability with a huge come-from-behind win at Jefferson. Now firmly in the driver’s seat in the Lake race, they can start the preparations for a challenging run through sections. They close out the season with a busy but manageable week against the second tier of the Lake.
This week: Tues at Eastview, Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. Apple Valley
5. Bloomington Jefferson (17-4-2/8-3-2)
-Let one slip away against EP and find themselves still lacking that big win they need to assert their presence among the elite. From a ranking perspective, that makes this week’s game against Burnsville essential. They’ve also got their grudge match against Lakeville North; we’ll see how they handle that one.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville North, Sat vs. #6 Burnsville
6. Burnsville (14-6-3/5-5-2)
-Shut out a couple of Lake cellar dwellers to go to 12-1-1 in their last 14. After one more easy win, they have a huge matchup with Jefferson. A win would be quite the exclamation point to put atop this late season run and would cement their position as a legitimate title contender.
This week: Thurs at Rosemount, Sat at #5 Bloomington Jefferson
7. Blaine (16-4-3/8-4-3)
-Losing to Centennial raises some serious questions for a team that’s skated along a fine line all year, but seeing as it was their first loss to a team out of the top 3, I’ll keep them ahead of their section and conference rival for now. After watching the game, I think they’re far too reliant on the power play, and after they went down Centennial smothered them for the rest of the night. Two opponents that should not be taken for granted this week, as they tied both in their first meetings; the Bengals need to be careful and close out the season on a high note.
This week: Thurs vs. Maple Grove, Sat vs. #14 Andover
8. Hill-Murray (20-2-1/6-2-1)
-Carried on with their romp through the CSC and became the second AA team to reach 20 wins, but their SOS continues to hold them back. To that effect, a good showing against Moorhead this week will help them out a bit. I’m keeping them behind Blaine for now because of the Schwan Cup loss, but I expect them to climb a little in next week’s rankings once we’ve sorted out the NWSC and the Lake unless they lose to the Spuds.
This week: Tues at St. Paul North, Sat at #15 Moorhead
9. Centennial (15-5-3/7-5-3)
-Continued their hard charge over the past month with a big win over Blaine, though the inability to finish off Elk River despite a large shot advantage keeps them from jumping any further. Like Blaine, the have two challenges left in this final week and must play well to maintain a high ranking.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Andover, Sat at Osseo
10. Eagan 3-4-1
-The Wildcats slide back through no real fault of their own; other teams with more impressive achievements simply jumped ahead of them. One last potentially competitive game against Apple Valley this week, which may have section seeding implications. But they should be able to sail on ahead into the 3AA playoffs as a top seed.
This week: Thurs at Apple Valley, Sat vs. Rosemount
11. Duluth East (14-5-4/4-5-4)
-The Hounds survived a scare against archrival Cloquet in their only game this week and now look to close out the season against two Metro teams. Then the real fun begins; their likely first round opponents are either the ever-dangerous Cloquet or St. Francis’s Joey Benik show.
This week: Tues at Hastings, Sat vs. Tartan
12. Elk River (14-6-3/6-6-3)
-Clawed out a tie against Centennial this week, which looks good now that the Cougars have beaten Blaine, but I held off on pulling them up with Centennial since Blaine handled them just a week ago. One more important conference matchup as they close out their season and coast into the 7AA playoffs as the top seed.
This week: Thurs at Osseo, Sat at Champlin Park
13. Holy Angels (14-7-1/2-6-1)
-Thumped Prior Lake in their only game this past week. Next up are the last two Missota teams on the schedule, followed by what should be a competitive game against Benilde.
This week: Tues at Hutchinson, Thurs vs. Red Wing, Fri at Benilde-St. Margaret’s
14. Andover (16-5-2/3-5-2)
-Took care of business this past week, but have a very difficult week looming with both top-10 NWSC teams on the docket. Time to see just how much they’ve improved over the course of the season.
This week: Thurs at #9 Centennial, Sat at #7 Blaine
15. Moorhead (11-9-2/2-8-2)
-The Spuds took care of business against other 8AA contenders this week, besting both Bemidji and Brainerd for the second time this year. The wins cement them as the top seed in 8AA and give the high ranking more credibility. One last tough matchup this week, as Hill-Murray comes up for a visit.
This week: Fri vs. Alexandria, Sat vs. #15 Hill-Murray
On the Bubble
Lakeville South (15-8/3-8)
-It was tempting to throw them up in the top 15 for the sheer novelty of having a ranked 1AA team, but their losses to the top Lake teams just haven’t been close enough for me to make the push. One last shot at a top team this week as they host Eden Prairie.
Maple Grove (12-8-3/3-8-3)
-Stemmed a string of late season losses by pulling one out against Osseo. No real bad results on the schedule, either.
Brainerd (19-3/1-2)
-Second loss to Moorhead keeps them out of the top 15. It was more competitive this time around, meaning that strong record isn’t a complete product of a weak schedule, but they’re still on the outside looking in.
Woodbury (15-7-2/1-5)
-Wrapped up at least a share of the SEC and can win it outright by knocking off Cretin. Their earlier win against CDH gives them the nudge ahead of the Raiders for now.
Cretin-Derham Hall (17-7/2-3)
-Picked up an important win over WBL and are primed for the season-ending showdown with Woodbury. The winner of that game will jump a few spots next week.
Benilde-St. Margaret’s (15-5-3/2-5-2)
-Ugliness abounds as they barely salvage a tie against Totino-Grace. Not headed in the right direction at the moment; may have a huge challenge on their hands in Hopkins in the 6AA quarters.
Osseo (13-7-3/2-6-3)
-Late season march of tough losses continues; now limping into sections after that strong start.
Forest Lake (15-6-2/2-3-1)
-Continue to make a strong push to the end of the season.
Apple Valley (14-9/0-7)
-Picked up a couple of Lake wins; huge final week with Eagan and EP on the schedule.
On the outside of the outside looking in
White Bear Lake
Roseau
Tartan
Stillwater
Grand Rapids
And for one last time this year, we’ll take a glance at each section. This week I’ve listed the top seeds in each section, as I see them. The number in parenthesis is the team’s state rank.
1AA
1. Lakeville South (16)
2. Rochester Century
3. Lakeville North
4. Winona, I guess
-Oh, does this one get ugly as we head down the list. South remains way ahead of the rest of the field.
2AA
1. Edina (3)
2. Bloomington Jefferson/Burnsville winner (5/6)
3. BJ/Burns loser
4. Holy Angels (13)
-Could be seeded several different ways; the bottom line is that we have 4 very good teams, and the section champion will have picked up two huge wins.
3AA
1. Eagan (10)
2. CDH/Woodbury winner (19/20)
3. CDH/Wbry loser
4. Apple Valley (24)
-Pretty straightforward, with the championship shaping up to be a face-off between the Lake and the SEC.
4AA
1. Hill-Murray (8)
2. White Bear Lake (25)
3. Tartan (27)
4. Stillwater (28)
-The wide gulf between #1 and the rest remains intact, though that doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion.
5AA
1. Centennial (9)
2. Blaine (7)
3. Maple Grove (17)
4. Osseo (22)
-There’s room for a very good argument on the top seed here; I gave it to Centennial on the basis of the head-to-head result. But as with Section 2, there’s no real advantage to getting the 1 over the 2, as both likely semifinal opponents look pretty equal.
6AA
1. Tonka/Wayzata winner (1/2)
2. Tonka/Wayzata loser
3. Eden Prairie (5)
4. Benilde (21)
-With Benilde sagging, the top seed gets even more valuable; avoiding EP in the semifinals is a valuable prize. But both Benilde--and Hopkins, for that matter--could ride a hot goalie to an upset if the top team doesn’t bring its A game. Either way, the last few games in this one should be spectacular.
7AA
1. Elk River (12)
2. Duluth East (11)
3. Andover (14)
4. Forest Lake (23)
5. Grand Rapids (29)
-Wide open; any of the top 5 teams are capable of beating each other and winning the thing, though they do fall into a pretty logical order when it comes to seeding. Cloquet will be a dangerous quarterfinal opponent for one of the top 3.
8AA
1. Moorhead (15)
2. Brainerd (18)
3. Roseau (26)
4. St. Cloud Tech
-The Rams’ late-season swoon means we might have a new team playing Moorhead for the title this time around. Otherwise, pretty straightforward. Bemidji is a mild upset threat; they’ve given each of the top 3 a 1-goal game this year.
-
- Posts: 6848
- Joined: Thu Aug 31, 2006 10:21 pm
Re: AA Rankings for 2/14/10
Great rankings, like always, karl.karl(east) wrote: 8. Hill-Murray (20-2-1/6-2-1)
-Carried on with their romp through the CSC and became the second AA team to reach 20 wins, but their SOS continues to hold them back. To that effect, a good showing against Moorhead this week will help them out a bit. I’m keeping them behind Blaine for now because of the Schwan Cup loss, but I expect them to climb a little in next week’s rankings once we’ve sorted out the NWSC and the Lake unless they lose to the Spuds.
This week: Tues at St. Paul North, Sat at #15 Moorhead
Just to throw this out there, PS2 puts them at #16 in the state. People often make comments about Holy Angels as well who, with their conference schedule, sits at #19. So, while they do have bad opponents on their schedule, their overall SOS isn't bad. Better than most.
-
- Posts: 1596
- Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2009 4:41 pm
Solid, Karl......
I would like to throw this out here in regards to my beloved Section 4AA. It looks like Tartan plays my favorite northern team, East, on the 20th. If Tartan happens to upset East, I would not be at all surprised if Tartan jumps to the #2 seed.
My guess is WBL will finish 15-9-1 .. Tartan could end up 16-8-1 with a victory over East, whereas WBL lost to East. Even if a loss to East, Tartan and WBL would have equal records, and Tartan's two losses to St. Thomas 5-2 and 7-5, were better losses than WBL's 7-0.....
Some may argue Classic Suburban is the weaker conference than the Suburban East, but CSC certainly has the better players. Ben Marshall Maht , Christian Isackson STA, Adam Wilcox SSP all going to Gophs... and isn't Casto from H-M going to UMD?? Doesn't STA have more than one player going D1? Does the SEC have any D1 players other than Mark Alt - Gophers??
My point is that I wouldn't necessarily discount Tartan as a #2.
I would like to throw this out here in regards to my beloved Section 4AA. It looks like Tartan plays my favorite northern team, East, on the 20th. If Tartan happens to upset East, I would not be at all surprised if Tartan jumps to the #2 seed.
My guess is WBL will finish 15-9-1 .. Tartan could end up 16-8-1 with a victory over East, whereas WBL lost to East. Even if a loss to East, Tartan and WBL would have equal records, and Tartan's two losses to St. Thomas 5-2 and 7-5, were better losses than WBL's 7-0.....
Some may argue Classic Suburban is the weaker conference than the Suburban East, but CSC certainly has the better players. Ben Marshall Maht , Christian Isackson STA, Adam Wilcox SSP all going to Gophs... and isn't Casto from H-M going to UMD?? Doesn't STA have more than one player going D1? Does the SEC have any D1 players other than Mark Alt - Gophers??
My point is that I wouldn't necessarily discount Tartan as a #2.
Crandall is headed to UMD.Goldfishdude wrote:Solid, Karl......
I would like to throw this out here in regards to my beloved Section 4AA. It looks like Tartan plays my favorite northern team, East, on the 20th. If Tartan happens to upset East, I would not be at all surprised if Tartan jumps to the #2 seed.
My guess is WBL will finish 15-9-1 .. Tartan could end up 16-8-1 with a victory over East, whereas WBL lost to East. Even if a loss to East, Tartan and WBL would have equal records, and Tartan's two losses to St. Thomas 5-2 and 7-5, were better losses than WBL's 7-0.....
Some may argue Classic Suburban is the weaker conference than the Suburban East, but CSC certainly has the better players. Ben Marshall Maht , Christian Isackson STA, Adam Wilcox SSP all going to Gophs... and isn't Casto from H-M going to UMD?? Doesn't STA have more than one player going D1? Does the SEC have any D1 players other than Mark Alt - Gophers??
My point is that I wouldn't necessarily discount Tartan as a #2.
Gaede, Woodbury, is going to Mankato. Forest Lake has one player going to Harvard.Goldfishdude wrote:Solid, Karl......
I would like to throw this out here in regards to my beloved Section 4AA. It looks like Tartan plays my favorite northern team, East, on the 20th. If Tartan happens to upset East, I would not be at all surprised if Tartan jumps to the #2 seed.
My guess is WBL will finish 15-9-1 .. Tartan could end up 16-8-1 with a victory over East, whereas WBL lost to East. Even if a loss to East, Tartan and WBL would have equal records, and Tartan's two losses to St. Thomas 5-2 and 7-5, were better losses than WBL's 7-0.....
Some may argue Classic Suburban is the weaker conference than the Suburban East, but CSC certainly has the better players. Ben Marshall Maht , Christian Isackson STA, Adam Wilcox SSP all going to Gophs... and isn't Casto from H-M going to UMD?? Doesn't STA have more than one player going D1? Does the SEC have any D1 players other than Mark Alt - Gophers??
My point is that I wouldn't necessarily discount Tartan as a #2.
Fick.Sykes wrote:Gaede, Woodbury, is going to Mankato. Forest Lake has one player going to Harvard.Goldfishdude wrote:Solid, Karl......
I would like to throw this out here in regards to my beloved Section 4AA. It looks like Tartan plays my favorite northern team, East, on the 20th. If Tartan happens to upset East, I would not be at all surprised if Tartan jumps to the #2 seed.
My guess is WBL will finish 15-9-1 .. Tartan could end up 16-8-1 with a victory over East, whereas WBL lost to East. Even if a loss to East, Tartan and WBL would have equal records, and Tartan's two losses to St. Thomas 5-2 and 7-5, were better losses than WBL's 7-0.....
Some may argue Classic Suburban is the weaker conference than the Suburban East, but CSC certainly has the better players. Ben Marshall Maht , Christian Isackson STA, Adam Wilcox SSP all going to Gophs... and isn't Casto from H-M going to UMD?? Doesn't STA have more than one player going D1? Does the SEC have any D1 players other than Mark Alt - Gophers??
My point is that I wouldn't necessarily discount Tartan as a #2.
-
- Posts: 146
- Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 3:21 pm
- Location: Richfield
With the loss, Tonka does LOOK human. Makes the top 10 at least seem much more competitive on paper.
I'm looking to see if Decowski and Andover assert their stake in the seedings/rankings this week; and if Decowski steps into the spotlight for Mr. Hockey by out-doing Bjugstad in their head-to-head. (He's my horse)
I'm looking to see if Decowski and Andover assert their stake in the seedings/rankings this week; and if Decowski steps into the spotlight for Mr. Hockey by out-doing Bjugstad in their head-to-head. (He's my horse)
-
- Posts: 926
- Joined: Sun Nov 30, 2008 11:55 pm
- Location: Lakeville
It looks pretty good to me Karl, although I think you moved Edina up too much after the Minnetonka win. I realize it was a big win but I have to believe after tonka got out to a big early lead they relaxed and then were unable to turn it back on when Edina came back. Which means the win by Edina would have to at least partly be put on tonka and not all on Edina, if that makes any sense. I would have moved them to maybe 6 or 7 at best. At this point in the season I just dont think any team should make more than a 2 or 3 spot move based on any win or loss. I think you over reacted on this one. Just my opinion.
It's not the Best players, it's the Right players! HB
-
- Posts: 357
- Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2008 5:37 pm
-
- Posts: 268
- Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 2:33 am
This was a good loss
Lets just look at the overall picture. It is really tough to go un-defeated in the lake and classic lake. Their are big games here , even though a loss to build momentum. A loss brings a team back to reality and re-gouping to focus on the bottom line. Win three games in section play to get to the State. It is all now about Section playoffs. It is great to get the #1 seed to play the 1st game at home, but the other two games are played at non home ice areana's. Section 6 will be Tonka vs EP and Section 2 will be Jefferson vs a overachieving Burnsville or a slightly above average Holy Angels team.
LASERBLUE135 wrote:With the loss, Tonka does LOOK human. Makes the top 10 at least seem much more competitive on paper.
I'm looking to see if Decowski and Andover assert their stake in the seedings/rankings this week; and if Decowski steps into the spotlight for Mr. Hockey by out-doing Bjugstad in their head-to-head. (He's my horse)
-
- Posts: 1304
- Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2006 7:38 am
-
- Posts: 7260
- Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 10:28 pm
Also interesting that the top 5 teams are all located within about a 15 mile radius of one another. And these five schools typically lose quite a few kids to the likes of BSM, AHA, Breck and Blake, which are also located in the same geographic area.Roseauverrated wrote:Interesting to see the top 3 teams in the sate all in the Classic Lake and 3 of the top 4 in 6AA. Can't wait to see how all this plays out come playoff time!
-
- Posts: 6480
- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:03 pm
- Contact:
I'm too lazy to embed quotes so I'll just respond to a bunch of things:
HSHW on Hill's schedule: Yes, it's definitely not bad. The problem from a ranking perspective is that they (like AHA) have about 8 conference games that are pretty useless in terms of ranking, and many of the competitive teams in the CSC don't have many other games against other good teams. Compare that to the Lake, Classic Lake, and NWSC teams, who all have a series of strong common opponents, they're not as easy to rank. It's a problem for all 4 major AA privates, really, since they're in conferences without many, if any, strong AA teams. That leads us to put undue emphasis on the bigger nonconference games they play.
Goldy on the 2 seed in 4AA: Now that WBL's lost to Woodbury at full strength, I think you can definitely make a case for Tartan as the 2-seed, maybe even if they lose to East. Personally I'd still give WBL the edge since they do have a few big conference wins (Tartan hasn't beaten any of the top CSC teams), and because they got AHA. But it could go either way, and they should meet in the semis, barring a repeat first-round performance by Tartan.
HHF on Edina: As I tried to explain in the comment, last week Edina was probably lower than their body of work indicated because they looked like they were going down the tubes. Now that they've revived themselves, I think they do belong very high...they've beaten EP and Blaine (2x), plus 5 of their 6 losses are to the teams ahead of them, 4 of those by 1 goal.
PPG on Hill/Blaine/Burnsville: That argument could be made, but I don't put much stock in anything Burnsville did in the first month of the season, with how they've been playing lately. Assuming H-M wins out, they'll end up ahead of the loser of the Burnsville/Jefferson game, and I'll re-evaluate them vs. Blaine next week too.
The various comments on the top 5 from the same area: Yes, this certainly looks to be the year of the giant SW Metro public program. My guess at this point is that this has something to do with the new transfer rule finally starting to sink in. It'll be interesting to see where this goes in the next few years.
HSHW on Hill's schedule: Yes, it's definitely not bad. The problem from a ranking perspective is that they (like AHA) have about 8 conference games that are pretty useless in terms of ranking, and many of the competitive teams in the CSC don't have many other games against other good teams. Compare that to the Lake, Classic Lake, and NWSC teams, who all have a series of strong common opponents, they're not as easy to rank. It's a problem for all 4 major AA privates, really, since they're in conferences without many, if any, strong AA teams. That leads us to put undue emphasis on the bigger nonconference games they play.
Goldy on the 2 seed in 4AA: Now that WBL's lost to Woodbury at full strength, I think you can definitely make a case for Tartan as the 2-seed, maybe even if they lose to East. Personally I'd still give WBL the edge since they do have a few big conference wins (Tartan hasn't beaten any of the top CSC teams), and because they got AHA. But it could go either way, and they should meet in the semis, barring a repeat first-round performance by Tartan.
HHF on Edina: As I tried to explain in the comment, last week Edina was probably lower than their body of work indicated because they looked like they were going down the tubes. Now that they've revived themselves, I think they do belong very high...they've beaten EP and Blaine (2x), plus 5 of their 6 losses are to the teams ahead of them, 4 of those by 1 goal.
PPG on Hill/Blaine/Burnsville: That argument could be made, but I don't put much stock in anything Burnsville did in the first month of the season, with how they've been playing lately. Assuming H-M wins out, they'll end up ahead of the loser of the Burnsville/Jefferson game, and I'll re-evaluate them vs. Blaine next week too.
The various comments on the top 5 from the same area: Yes, this certainly looks to be the year of the giant SW Metro public program. My guess at this point is that this has something to do with the new transfer rule finally starting to sink in. It'll be interesting to see where this goes in the next few years.
-
- Posts: 1007
- Joined: Sat Nov 15, 2008 3:04 pm
Goldfishdude wrote:Solid, Karl......
I would like to throw this out here in regards to my beloved Section 4AA. It looks like Tartan plays my favorite northern team, East, on the 20th. If Tartan happens to upset East, I would not be at all surprised if Tartan jumps to the #2 seed.
My guess is WBL will finish 15-9-1 .. Tartan could end up 16-8-1 with a victory over East, whereas WBL lost to East. Even if a loss to East, Tartan and WBL would have equal records, and Tartan's two losses to St. Thomas 5-2 and 7-5, were better losses than WBL's 7-0.....
Some may argue Classic Suburban is the weaker conference than the Suburban East, but CSC certainly has the better players. Ben Marshall Maht , Christian Isackson STA, Adam Wilcox SSP all going to Gophs... and isn't Casto from H-M going to UMD?? Doesn't STA have more than one player going D1? Does the SEC have any D1 players other than Mark Alt - Gophers??
My point is that I wouldn't necessarily discount Tartan as a #2.
I am going to have to argue your points, Goldy. Tartan and WBL have 2 losses to Hill cancek each other out, next is Woodbury both have lost, then Park which took Tartan to OT then comes Mounds View which Tartan tied. Tartan's non-conference schedule is weaker and thye lack any wins over ranked or teams with above .500 records.
Both WBL and Stillwater have beaten Mounds View and Park and both have wins over ranked opponents and teams with winning records.
#1- Hill
#2- WBL
#3 - Stillwater
#4- Tartan
#5- NSP/MV
#6- MV/NSP
#7- Roseville
#8- Saints/Como
-
- Posts: 182
- Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2008 9:41 pm
I agree with Youngblood88. This is how I look at Section 4 seedings.
1. Hill-Murray = heavy favorites in Section 4
2. White Bear Lake = to up and down to make state
3. Stillwater = not enough O
4. Tartan = internal problems this year, 1 and done
5. North St Paul = upset special against Tartan
6. Mounds View = good season for MV best in years!
7. Roseville = talent leavel down from past teams
8. Como Park = running time vs Hill Murray in QF game
9. St Paul Saints = will lose in OT to Como
1. Hill-Murray = heavy favorites in Section 4
2. White Bear Lake = to up and down to make state
3. Stillwater = not enough O
4. Tartan = internal problems this year, 1 and done
5. North St Paul = upset special against Tartan
6. Mounds View = good season for MV best in years!
7. Roseville = talent leavel down from past teams
8. Como Park = running time vs Hill Murray in QF game
9. St Paul Saints = will lose in OT to Como
-
- Posts: 70
- Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2009 7:45 pm
-
- Posts: 6480
- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:03 pm
- Contact:
I'm saying that more from a mental standpoint than anything else. Yes, wins over Wayzata and Eagan are impressive, but Wayzata was a nonconference, non-section game in early January, and though Eagan is coming on, I doubt the Jags put a win over the Wildcats in the same league as a win over EP, Edina, or Burnsville. A win over EP might have convinced me they're the team to beat in 2AA. With the loss, that title shifts back to Edina, even if Jefferson might have more talent.toptitty96 wrote:Karl, when you say that Jefferson lacks that big win, does the win over Wayzata, your number 2 team, count for nothing? Or the win over Eagan at home after EP lost to them at home? Just saying.
-
- Posts: 70
- Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2009 7:45 pm
Ya, I can't disagree with you when you say how important the win over EP could've been. We'll see how they match up against Burnsville this week, but I'm really just getting ready for sections at this point.karl(east) wrote:I'm saying that more from a mental standpoint than anything else. Yes, wins over Wayzata and Eagan are impressive, but Wayzata was a nonconference, non-section game in early January, and though Eagan is coming on, I doubt the Jags put a win over the Wildcats in the same league as a win over EP, Edina, or Burnsville. A win over EP might have convinced me they're the team to beat in 2AA. With the loss, that title shifts back to Edina, even if Jefferson might have more talent.toptitty96 wrote:Karl, when you say that Jefferson lacks that big win, does the win over Wayzata, your number 2 team, count for nothing? Or the win over Eagan at home after EP lost to them at home? Just saying.
-
- Posts: 1596
- Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2009 4:41 pm
Youngy and Chester, you both make solid points, and you may very well be right, but you may have read into my points more than I intended.
Don't forget WBL LOST to Mounds View, and, IMO, that's a worse loss than WBL beating AHA was a good win. I was morso suggesting that if Tartan beats East, I wouldn't be surprised, if Tartan jumped to #2, but I didn't say they deserved or would be guaranteed #2.
Would the sections be set up to have a potential semis as CSC 1 H-M vs 4 Tartan and the other SEC 2 WBL vs 3 Stillwater or would they make it H-M vs Stillwater and WBL vs Tartan?
Just to clarify, Tartan has beaten Duluth Marshall, when they were ranked top 5, and also have beaten SSP - both are still ranked teams. Granted, both those teams are Class A. Add a victory over Roch Century, and two over North, both are over .500. Stillwater has wins vs Grand Rapids and Cloquet, both with records under .500, and I think the Stillwater 5-0 loss to Forest Lake at home will be a factor. Other than WBL over AHA and the one win vs CDH, they haven't been that impressive, either.
But, the way East has been playing as of late with the way it has been pounding the net, it would be a huge upset for a Tartan win.
Regardless, I would love to see Stillwater get the #3 seed to get after WBL one more time, as well, and I hope you guys are right.
Don't forget WBL LOST to Mounds View, and, IMO, that's a worse loss than WBL beating AHA was a good win. I was morso suggesting that if Tartan beats East, I wouldn't be surprised, if Tartan jumped to #2, but I didn't say they deserved or would be guaranteed #2.
Would the sections be set up to have a potential semis as CSC 1 H-M vs 4 Tartan and the other SEC 2 WBL vs 3 Stillwater or would they make it H-M vs Stillwater and WBL vs Tartan?
Just to clarify, Tartan has beaten Duluth Marshall, when they were ranked top 5, and also have beaten SSP - both are still ranked teams. Granted, both those teams are Class A. Add a victory over Roch Century, and two over North, both are over .500. Stillwater has wins vs Grand Rapids and Cloquet, both with records under .500, and I think the Stillwater 5-0 loss to Forest Lake at home will be a factor. Other than WBL over AHA and the one win vs CDH, they haven't been that impressive, either.
But, the way East has been playing as of late with the way it has been pounding the net, it would be a huge upset for a Tartan win.
Regardless, I would love to see Stillwater get the #3 seed to get after WBL one more time, as well, and I hope you guys are right.
Re: AA Rankings for 2/14/10
ACTUALkarl(east) wrote:Only one week to go to sections, and things are falling into place for some great playoff hockey. I made my sections bracket today;
8AA
1. Moorhead (15)
2. Brainerd (18)
3. Roseau (26)
4. St. Cloud Tech
-The Rams’ late-season swoon means we might have a new team playing Moorhead for the title this time around. Otherwise, pretty straightforward. Bemidji is a mild upset threat; they’ve given each of the top 3 a 1-goal game this year.
1. Moorhead
2. Roseau
3. Brainerd
4. Bemidji
5. St Cloud Tech
6. Buffalo
7. Monticello
8. River Lakes
9. Becker
-
- Posts: 291
- Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2007 4:51 am
- Location: The Lost City of Centennial
I think Brainerd would disagree with you this year.Fire and Ice wrote:When you think about this section it is actually embarrassing that Warroad doesn't play up.
This is a two team section every year.
And maybe double check with the #1 & #2 coaches about their concerns.
Warroad will be okay next year (not AA okay though) but bantams and peewees are really struggling.
-
- Posts: 6480
- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:03 pm
- Contact:
Re: AA Rankings for 2/14/10
Wow. I wonder how they justified giving Roseau the 2-seed? Brainerd won head to head and has a better record. I also thought Tech would get some credit for beating Roseau, though Bemidji has given all the top 3 a 1-goal game at some point this year.elliott70 wrote:ACTUALkarl(east) wrote:Only one week to go to sections, and things are falling into place for some great playoff hockey. I made my sections bracket today;
8AA
1. Moorhead (15)
2. Brainerd (18)
3. Roseau (26)
4. St. Cloud Tech
-The Rams’ late-season swoon means we might have a new team playing Moorhead for the title this time around. Otherwise, pretty straightforward. Bemidji is a mild upset threat; they’ve given each of the top 3 a 1-goal game this year.
1. Moorhead
2. Roseau
3. Brainerd
4. Bemidji
5. St Cloud Tech
6. Buffalo
7. Monticello
8. River Lakes
9. Becker