Scores that ratings are based upon. Scores through January 15, 2012. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting.
Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below Division 1 RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,Penn State,_________________________ 17 3 1, 3.2, 9.6, 12.86, 11.91 2,Arizona State,______________________ 18 3 3, 2.7, 9.2, 11.91, 12.56 3,Delaware,___________________________ 21 2 1, 2.7, 8.7, 11.37, 12.09 4,Lindenwood,_________________________ 18 4 1, 1.6, 9.5, 11.15, 12.09 5,Ohio,_______________________________ 20 7 2, 1.9, 8.9, 10.83, 11.76 6,Liberty,____________________________ 18 7 3, 1.8, 8.9, 10.71, 10.97 7,Minot State,________________________ 14 6 1, 2.7, 7.6, 10.28, 10.12 8,Oklahoma,___________________________ 18 9 2, 1.4, 8.7, 10.14, 9.47 9,Iowa State,_________________________ 20 6 5, 2.1, 7.9, 9.99, 9.14 10,Canton,_____________________________ 20 0 3, 4.2, 5.7, 9.85, 9.77 11,Davenport,__________________________ 14 12 0, 0.7, 8.7, 9.47, 9.53 12,Robert Morris Illinois,_____________ 16 5 3, 2.0, 7.4, 9.42, 9.60 13,Illinois,___________________________ 10 10 1, 0.5, 8.7, 9.21, 6.73 14,Adrian,_____________________________ 12 11 2, 1.2, 8.0, 9.19, 7.73 15,Arizona,____________________________ 11 10 2, 1.1, 8.0, 9.13, 8.41 16,Central Oklahoma,___________________ 12 13 2, 0.3, 8.8, 9.03, 8.80 17,Stony Brook,________________________ 10 11 1, 0.4, 8.7, 9.03, 8.89 18,Oakland,____________________________ 15 10 2, 0.9, 7.9, 8.80, 8.66 19,Rhode Island,_______________________ 15 14 0, 0.7, 8.1, 8.76, 8.91 20,West Chester,_______________________ 16 7 0, 1.1, 7.5, 8.62, 9.11 21,West Virginia,______________________ 14 12 0, 1.0, 7.4, 8.36, 9.98 22,Drexel,_____________________________ 14 10 0, 0.8, 7.2, 7.91, 8.64 23,Pittsburgh,_________________________ 16 6 0, 2.0, 5.9, 7.88, 9.00 24,Navy,_______________________________ 16 6 3, 2.0, 5.7, 7.76, 8.76 25,Rutgers,____________________________ 13 6 2, 1.5, 5.6, 7.07, 5.01 26,Niagara,____________________________ 13 6 2, 2.0, 5.0, 6.98, 7.37 27,Michigan-Dearborn,__________________ 9 14 0, -1.1, 8.0, 6.83, 7.52 28,Mercyhurst,_________________________ 10 9 3, 0.4, 6.4, 6.80, 8.21 29,Kent State,_________________________ 15 11 2, -0.8, 7.3, 6.56, 6.18 30,Indiana,____________________________ 8 13 3, -1.1, 7.6, 6.54, 6.96 31,John Carroll,_______________________ 16 10 1, 1.0, 5.3, 6.31, 7.53 32,Penn State Berks,___________________ 12 5 1, 1.6, 4.4, 6.06, 5.05 33,Indiana Pennsylvania,_______________ 9 11 2, -0.2, 6.2, 6.00, 5.72 34,Slippery Rock,______________________ 8 10 1, 0.1, 5.8, 5.89, 6.70 35,North Dakota State,_________________ 10 9 1, 0.3, 5.5, 5.83, 5.70 36,Robert Morris Pennsylvania,_________ 9 18 0, -2.1, 7.8, 5.68, 4.47 37,Buffalo,____________________________ 8 12 3, -0.4, 5.9, 5.44, 4.89 38,Syracuse,___________________________ 10 9 4, -0.7, 6.0, 5.31, 5.11 39,Lehigh,_____________________________ 8 11 0, -0.5, 5.8, 5.28, 4.10 40,Lebanon Valley,_____________________ 6 12 4, -1.7, 6.9, 5.26, 5.26 41,Eastern Michigan,___________________ 4 21 1, -3.2, 8.2, 5.07, 4.63 42,Duquesne,___________________________ 6 13 1, -0.4, 5.4, 5.01, 3.92 43,Western Michigan,___________________ 4 22 0, -3.0, 7.8, 4.84, 5.52 44,Cornell,____________________________ 8 9 2, 0.1, 4.3, 4.39, 4.40 45,Canisius,___________________________ 11 13 1, 0.3, 4.0, 4.26, 4.40 46,Towson,_____________________________ 5 17 0, -2.7, 6.7, 3.99, 4.48 47,Youngstown State,___________________ 5 16 0, -2.0, 5.9, 3.96, 3.19 48,Oswego State,_______________________ 9 9 1, -0.3, 3.9, 3.63, 3.10 49,Villanova,__________________________ 6 18 0, -2.3, 5.9, 3.57, 3.59 50,Cortland State,_____________________ 2 10 0, -1.5, 5.1, 3.55, 4.09 51,Scranton,___________________________ 5 9 2, -1.7, 5.2, 3.47, 3.80 52,Saint Bonaventure,__________________ 4 10 0, -1.8, 4.8, 3.00, 2.26 53,Ithaca,_____________________________ 8 9 0, -1.9, 4.7, 2.81, 2.29 54,Rochester Inst of Tech,_____________ 3 17 1, -2.5, 5.0, 2.57, 1.25 55,Binghamton,_________________________ 0 14 1, -3.7, 5.0, 1.22, 0.83 56,Washington & Jefferson,_____________ 0 17 0, -6.2, 6.7, 0.47, 0.40 57,Rochester,__________________________ 1 11 0, -4.3, 4.1, -0.21, 0.63 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) Division 1 RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,Penn State,_________________________ 17 3 1, 0.7, 7.6, 8.25, 8.20 2,Arizona State,______________________ 18 3 3, 0.6, 7.5, 8.16, 8.56 3,Delaware,___________________________ 21 2 1, 0.8, 7.4, 8.16, 8.22 4,Lindenwood,_________________________ 18 4 1, 0.6, 7.6, 8.16, 8.38 5,Ohio,_______________________________ 20 7 2, 0.4, 7.5, 7.93, 8.27 6,Liberty,____________________________ 18 7 3, 0.4, 7.4, 7.82, 7.97 7,Oklahoma,___________________________ 18 9 2, 0.3, 7.4, 7.75, 7.42 8,Iowa State,_________________________ 20 6 5, 0.5, 7.3, 7.73, 7.80 9,Minot State,________________________ 14 6 1, 0.4, 7.2, 7.57, 7.60 10,Robert Morris Illinois,_____________ 16 5 3, 0.5, 7.1, 7.55, 7.52 11,Canton,_____________________________ 20 0 3, 0.9, 6.7, 7.55, 7.69 12,Illinois,___________________________ 10 10 1, 0.0, 7.5, 7.52, 6.98 13,West Chester,_______________________ 16 7 0, 0.4, 7.1, 7.52, 7.25 14,Davenport,__________________________ 14 12 0, 0.1, 7.3, 7.42, 7.17 15,Central Oklahoma,___________________ 12 13 2, -0.0, 7.4, 7.41, 7.14 16,Arizona,____________________________ 11 10 2, 0.0, 7.3, 7.38, 7.37 17,Stony Brook,________________________ 10 11 1, -0.0, 7.4, 7.37, 7.30 18,Oakland,____________________________ 15 10 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.32, 7.43 19,Rhode Island,_______________________ 15 14 0, 0.0, 7.2, 7.28, 7.36 20,Pittsburgh,_________________________ 16 6 0, 0.5, 6.8, 7.26, 7.57 21,Drexel,_____________________________ 14 10 0, 0.2, 7.1, 7.24, 7.26 22,West Virginia,______________________ 14 12 0, 0.1, 7.1, 7.23, 7.46 23,Adrian,_____________________________ 12 11 2, 0.0, 7.2, 7.22, 7.00 24,Kent State,_________________________ 15 11 2, 0.1, 7.0, 7.19, 7.04 25,Rutgers,____________________________ 13 6 2, 0.3, 6.7, 7.05, 6.71 26,Navy,_______________________________ 16 6 3, 0.4, 6.6, 7.04, 7.01 27,Indiana,____________________________ 8 13 3, -0.2, 7.2, 6.96, 7.15 28,Michigan-Dearborn,__________________ 9 14 0, -0.2, 7.1, 6.89, 6.59 29,Robert Morris Pennsylvania,_________ 9 18 0, -0.3, 7.2, 6.89, 6.94 30,Mercyhurst,_________________________ 10 9 3, 0.0, 6.8, 6.85, 7.15 31,John Carroll,_______________________ 16 10 1, 0.2, 6.6, 6.84, 6.95 32,Penn State Berks,___________________ 12 5 1, 0.4, 6.4, 6.83, 6.70 33,Niagara,____________________________ 13 6 2, 0.3, 6.5, 6.82, 6.80 34,Syracuse,___________________________ 10 9 4, 0.0, 6.8, 6.82, 6.86 35,Indiana Pennsylvania,_______________ 9 11 2, -0.1, 6.9, 6.78, 6.63 36,North Dakota State,_________________ 10 9 1, 0.1, 6.7, 6.73, 6.64 37,Lebanon Valley,_____________________ 6 12 4, -0.3, 7.0, 6.71, 6.78 38,Slippery Rock,______________________ 8 10 1, -0.1, 6.8, 6.66, 6.88 39,Buffalo,____________________________ 8 12 3, -0.2, 6.7, 6.57, 6.25 40,Lehigh,_____________________________ 8 11 0, -0.2, 6.7, 6.54, 6.38 41,Eastern Michigan,___________________ 4 21 1, -0.7, 7.1, 6.49, 6.34 42,Ithaca,_____________________________ 8 9 0, -0.1, 6.5, 6.48, 6.19 43,Western Michigan,___________________ 4 22 0, -0.7, 7.1, 6.43, 6.61 44,Cornell,____________________________ 8 9 2, -0.1, 6.4, 6.39, 6.32 45,Oswego State,_______________________ 9 9 1, 0.0, 6.4, 6.38, 6.37 46,Towson,_____________________________ 5 17 0, -0.5, 6.9, 6.35, 6.35 47,Scranton,___________________________ 5 9 2, -0.3, 6.6, 6.34, 6.50 48,Duquesne,___________________________ 6 13 1, -0.3, 6.7, 6.31, 6.38 49,Villanova,__________________________ 6 18 0, -0.5, 6.8, 6.25, 6.44 50,Youngstown State,___________________ 5 16 0, -0.5, 6.7, 6.22, 6.06 51,Canisius,___________________________ 11 13 1, -0.1, 6.3, 6.19, 6.24 52,Saint Bonaventure,__________________ 4 10 0, -0.4, 6.5, 6.09, 6.19 53,Cortland State,_____________________ 2 10 0, -0.7, 6.6, 5.93, 6.09 54,Washington & Jefferson,_____________ 0 17 0, -1.0, 6.9, 5.89, 5.84 55,Rochester Inst of Tech,_____________ 3 17 1, -0.7, 6.5, 5.86, 5.77 56,Binghamton,_________________________ 0 14 1, -0.9, 6.6, 5.66, 5.63 57,Rochester,__________________________ 1 11 0, -0.8, 6.3, 5.45, 5.58 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed below. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Currently, teams with as few as 3 scores are ranked. The more games that go into a team's ranking, the more accurate their ranking will be.Please send any missing scores or corrections to iascores@yahoo.com using the score submission spreadsheet.
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