AA Rankings for 12/13/09

[schwang17]

"2AA
2 Jefferson
7 Holy Angels
12 Edina
Nothing has happened to help sort this section out since the start of the season. Still looks to be a strong one, though."

You are right. I am a little disappointed that these three schools don't all play each other once or twice. Unless Jefferson loses to a bad conference opponent, Edina surprises us with some tough losses, or Holy Angels surprises us with an undefeated season they will probably be ranked the same as last year, by record. Which is unfortunate, imo.

I agree; the lack of games against each other really complicates this section unnecessarily. We can hope for another Edina-AHA matchup in the Schwan Cup, but otherwise separating these teams can be very difficult, especially with the disparity between them in schedule strength.

We can also hope that the coaches learned their lesson last year about ranking teams strictly on record when others (shameless self-promotion alert) thought otherwise and ended up being right. But I wouldn't count on that.

Very well done with the rankings, Karl.

I must say, though, that the people who put these 3 teams in the
same section need their head examined. We want the best teams at state, not beating each other up in the same section. All 3 are usually top 5-10 most years, it is complete nonsense to line them up in the same section. That's all I got to say about that.

Jefferson got bumped from the Schwan Cup, I think their soft schedule hurt them when it mattered last year vs. Edina and it may happen again this year if they aren't careful(I am a Jefferson supporter).

[northwoods oldtimer]

Holy Angels reloads every year by recruiting. Edina is just pure numbers. Jefferson on the other hand will have good years and lean years. that is generally why the sections are set up the way they are. You could go through each decade and pick up sections that had very strong teams and rant on about the same issue. Sections 7AA comes to mind just a few years ago. In my opinion the tournament does not need so much micro management. Section 1...perhaps there is an issue there where the strongest section in any given year is granted the "back door" entry to state as runner up. That might be a sound way to go. How would you propose the sectional split for the 3 schools who are in such close proximity? The number 1, Minnetonka looks to be the cream of the crop this year and might just ride that powerful lineup right to the 'chump-chip', we will just have to see.

[Roseauverrated]

"2AA
2 Jefferson
7 Holy Angels
12 Edina
Nothing has happened to help sort this section out since the start of the season. Still looks to be a strong one, though."

You are right. I am a little disappointed that these three schools don't all play each other once or twice. Unless Jefferson loses to a bad conference opponent, Edina surprises us with some tough losses, or Holy Angels surprises us with an undefeated season they will probably be ranked the same as last year, by record. Which is unfortunate, imo.

I agree; the lack of games against each other really complicates this section unnecessarily. We can hope for another Edina-AHA matchup in the Schwan Cup, but otherwise separating these teams can be very difficult, especially with the disparity between them in schedule strength.

We can also hope that the coaches learned their lesson last year about ranking teams strictly on record when others (shameless self-promotion alert) thought otherwise and ended up being right. But I wouldn't count on that.

Very well done with the rankings, Karl.

I must say, though, that the people who put these 3 teams in the
same section need their head examined. We want the best teams at state, not beating each other up in the same section. All 3 are usually top 5-10 most years, it is complete nonsense to line them up in the same section. That's all I got to say about that.

Jefferson got bumped from the Schwan Cup, I think their soft schedule hurt them when it mattered last year vs. Edina and it may happen again this year if they aren't careful(I am a Jefferson supporter).

While section 2AA is really talented, I think these teams should just be thankful they're not in 6AA.

[Zamman]

Holy Angels reloads every year by recruiting. Edina is just pure numbers. Jefferson on the other hand will have good years and lean years. that is generally why the sections are set up the way they are. You could go through each decade and pick up sections that had very strong teams and rant on about the same issue. Sections 7AA comes to mind just a few years ago. In my opinion the tournament does not need so much micro management. Section 1...perhaps there is an issue there where the strongest section in any given year is granted the "back door" entry to state as runner up. That might be a sound way to go. How would you propose the sectional split for the 3 schools who are in such close proximity? The number 1, Minnetonka looks to be the cream of the crop this year and might just ride that powerful lineup right to the 'chump-chip', we will just have to see.

Using his opinion to get his point across. Look a little closer. Using the "R" word is not right and it is also completely false. Get those facts straight then come back and post.....

[blueblood]

Zamman:

Care to elaborate on the SR. transfer from Chaska? I'll give you one hint:

His last name has an apostrophe in it....

[dabears344]

Wow great job, I espically like the gutsy call of putting Osseo at 10. It would be cool to see a lesser known team like them really make an impact this year.

[HShockeywatcher]

karl, I guess I would be curious at your opinion of the 3's SOS.
-Holy Angels plays Shattuck and a couple other prep schools, the Schwan Cup and only top 20 AA teams.
-Edina plays in a nice conference, has their holiday tournament AND Schwan Cup, and a good non-conference schedule.
-Jefferson plays the defending state champ twice, twice quality non-conference opponents and while their conference isn't stellar, there are not many conference opponents they have who are terrible.

Ha, Edina and Holy Angels DO play each other. I was wrong. Neither play Jefferson though. Jefferson will go 23-2 and get seeded #1 again

[youngblood08]

karl, I guess I would be curious at your opinion of the 3's SOS.
-Holy Angels plays Shattuck and a couple other prep schools, the Schwan Cup and only top 20 AA teams.
-Edina plays in a nice conference, has their holiday tournament AND Schwan Cup, and a good non-conference schedule.
-Jefferson plays the defending state champ twice, twice quality non-conference opponents and while their conference isn't stellar, there are not many conference opponents they have who are terrible.

Ha, Edina and Holy Angels DO play each other. I was wrong. Neither play Jefferson though. Jefferson will go 23-2 and get seeded #1 again

If you are going to rip Jeffersons conference, Lets not forget the 14 games they play vs the POWERHOUSES of New Prague, Hutchinson, Northfield, Red Wing, Prior Lake, Shakopee and Farmington. AHA has 9 tough games on thier schedule and 2 are vs the East Prep schools. Who knows what they are like this year. You don't have to schedule cupcakes as you already have them built in.

[HShockeywatcher]

I didn't rip their conference by any means. If you read the second part of my comment it was that while the conference isn't terrible. With the exception of their one Kennedy game (see Missota-AHA note below) few of their teams are a cake walk. They may not be amazing teams, but most are above average AA teams, which I would say keeps their overall SOS up.
The issue is they play 19 conference games, while Holy Angels only plays 14. With 25 games total, there isn't much wiggle room for Jefferson. My opinion, drop Centennial/Wayzata, pick up AHA/Edina.

Does anyone know who won't have Holy Angels play against conference opponents once? I've heard some say it's Holy Angels, others say it's other teams in the conference. I think it's very dumb. They could play 7 away, conference games and let each opponent schedule one away game that isn't a slaughter with passing rules and back ups.

[karl(east)]

karl, I guess I would be curious at your opinion of the 3's SOS.
-Holy Angels plays Shattuck and a couple other prep schools, the Schwan Cup and only top 20 AA teams.
-Edina plays in a nice conference, has their holiday tournament AND Schwan Cup, and a good non-conference schedule.
-Jefferson plays the defending state champ twice, twice quality non-conference opponents and while their conference isn't stellar, there are not many conference opponents they have who are terrible.

Ha, Edina and Holy Angels DO play each other. I was wrong. Neither play Jefferson though. Jefferson will go 23-2 and get seeded #1 again

I would crudely break down the schedules this way.
Edina
13 games vs. elite (top 20-ish) teams
5 games against mediocre teams
4 games against poor teams

Jefferson
4 games vs. elite teams (an argument could be made for 6, depending where you put Apple Valley)
13 (or 15) games against mediocre teams
3 games against poor teams (though by the standards of poor teams they're not that bad)

Holy Angels
8 games against elite teams (including Shattuck and the East Coast teams)
6 games against mediocre teams (some of these ratings of "mediocre" are generous)
8 games against poor teams

Each team also plays in one of the top two holiday tournaments in the state.

At this point, Edina clearly has the hardest. After that, it depends on whether you give more credit to Jefferson's (albeit mediocre) balance, or Holy Angels' extreme inbalance. I think the difference between the two more or less washes out, with perhaps a slight edge to Jefferson.

[Zamman]

I didn't rip their conference by any means. If you read the second part of my comment it was that while the conference isn't terrible. With the exception of their one Kennedy game (see Missota-AHA note below) few of their teams are a cake walk. They may not be amazing teams, but most are above average AA teams, which I would say keeps their overall SOS up.
The issue is they play 19 conference games, while Holy Angels only plays 14. With 25 games total, there isn't much wiggle room for Jefferson. My opinion, drop Centennial/Wayzata, pick up AHA/Edina.

Does anyone know who won't have Holy Angels play against conference opponents once? I've heard some say it's Holy Angels, others say it's other teams in the conference. I think it's very dumb. They could play 7 away, conference games and let each opponent schedule one away game that isn't a slaughter with passing rules and back ups.

There are two schools that will not opt to play AHA once. I am not sure which ones and I would be talking out of line if I posted that. All I know is that those two teams have no mercy held against them when AHA plays them.

As far as the senior transfer, from what I have heard is that his family moved from one district to another, therfore making the transfer legit. In his first game he got a hat trick and I was pretty impressed. Trebil had hi with the Reillys which really helps.

But his topic is not for that.


Back to Karl

[buddish4mrhockey]

karl- its obvious edina has the hardest schedule in class 2AA but i would like to know how youdecided which teams were medicore and which teams were poor. For both Jefferson and AHA their conference games are cake walks (other than EP vs Jeff) so to compare you pretty much need to look at the non conference games and the tournament fields they play in.

[HappyHockeyFan]

On paper, Hill by 4.

But after watching so many screwy things happen in East-Cloquet games, I know that anything can happen in a rivalry game. If White Bear gets an early goal or two, look out.

Great job, but I dont get Osseo ranked over both Duluth East and Edina, could you explain....?

Sure.

Osseo, East, and Edina have all played Wayzata, and they're ranked in order of their results against Wayzata. Osseo managed a 4-4 tie, while East lost 4-3 in OT while outshooting Wayzata, and Edina lost 4-2 and was outshot by a decent margin. So right now I'm using the one common opponent they've all got.

And even though Osseo lost to Blaine, it was a close enough game to prove that the Wayzata result wasn't a fluke. It looks like they're legit; we'll see if they can hold up through the NWSC schedule.

I suppose that makes sense early in the season, I just dont feel like Osseo will end up ahead of those teams.

[theoneandonly1]

karl- its obvious edina has the hardest schedule in class 2AA but i would like to know how youdecided which teams were medicore and which teams were poor. For both Jefferson and AHA their conference games are cake walks (other than EP vs Jeff) so to compare you pretty much need to look at the non conference games and the tournament fields they play in.

The Lake Conference deserves a little more respect. EP and Jefferson are so dominant that it makes all the other teams look poor, but in reality they are average or better hockey teams. The Missota Conference on the other hand contains 4 class A teams and 3 lower end Class AA teams. I think Karl has it right with counting most of Jefferson's games as mediocre teams.

[espnmobile8]

Yeah the Lake is a cake walk for Jefferson and E.P. because they are two of the best teams in the state. They make the conference look worse than it is.

[HockeyMN1]

Yeah the Lake is a cake walk for Jefferson and E.P. because they are two of the best teams in the state. They make the conference look worse than it is.

Just wait till next year...I wonder if any of next year's Lake teams will make it out alive.

[schwang17]

I agree; the lack of games against each other really complicates this section unnecessarily. We can hope for another Edina-AHA matchup in the Schwan Cup, but otherwise separating these teams can be very difficult, especially with the disparity between them in schedule strength.

We can also hope that the coaches learned their lesson last year about ranking teams strictly on record when others (shameless self-promotion alert) thought otherwise and ended up being right. But I wouldn't count on that.

Very well done with the rankings, Karl.

I must say, though, that the people who put these 3 teams in the
same section need their head examined. We want the best teams at state, not beating each other up in the same section. All 3 are usually top 5-10 most years, it is complete nonsense to line them up in the same section. That's all I got to say about that.

Jefferson got bumped from the Schwan Cup, I think their soft schedule hurt them when it mattered last year vs. Edina and it may happen again this year if they aren't careful(I am a Jefferson supporter).

While section 2AA is really talented, I think these teams should just be thankful they're not in 6AA.

It is very close. They are definitely the 2 best sections in the state. More often than not I would give the nod to 2AA, though.

[karl(east)]

Alright, time to do a little catch-up.

While I would agree that Jefferson in-conference losses to anyone other than EP would be embarrassing (just as AHA losing to anyone in the Missota would be), the Lake teams are all still relatively better than the Missota. A Jefferson blowout of Lakeville North is more impressive than an AHA blowout of Northfield (to some degree...after a while, I stop caring whether a team is winning 8-0 or 12-0 or 17-0). The lower Lake teams, if they were to be matched up wit the lower Missota teams, would come out looking very good. This is why Jefferson's schedule is stronger, even if they should still beat just about everyone on it.

Looking at tonight's results...I'll be the first to eat crow for my pre-emptive dropping of CDH. I gambled on a hunch and lost. Now CDH is back in consideration with the top group. Are they really that good? Hard to say. In part, I think they matched up well with BSM, and I'm not sure that they have the depth to run with some of the other top-tier teams. But barring a breakdown they're definitely on their way back into the top ten. It's a very interesting result, and has implications for that entire mess that is the SEC. No conference is harder to sort out than that one at this point.

Roseau made a statement tonight too, while my feelings on a couple of other teams were re-enforced.

[CB00]

CDH may have been under rated, I don't know haven't seen them play. I do think BSM has been over rated. They have a excellent goalie in Meyers and a Mr. Hockey candidate in Patterson and a few other nice players. I think they are very young and inexperienced and won't compete for a state playoff birth. Give them two years and they could be a top 10, butnot this year. Just my take. They are a 10-15 ranked team.

[karl(east)]

CDH may have been under rated, I don't know haven't seen them play. I do think BSM has been over rated. They have a excellent goalie in Meyers and a Mr. Hockey candidate in Patterson and a few other nice players. I think they are very young and inexperienced and won't compete for a state playoff birth. Give them two years and they could be a top 10, butnot this year. Just my take. They are a 10-15 ranked team.

BSM's lack of depth seems to be a pretty glaring flaw at this point.

Yet they still managed to tie Hill, one of the deepest teams in the state. Does that mean Hill's weaker than we think? Or did BSM just get lucky?

Where does Blaine fall in with the above three (BSM, CDH, Hill)? How about Holy Angels? I think Elk River can be just as good as these teams, too, though we'll get a better picture of that in the Edina Classic. But sorting out these teams will be the focus of next week's rankings.

Also, I thought of a better way to clarify my last post regarding the Jefferson and AHA schedules. If Jefferson has a letdown game and scrapes by Lakeville North, I will be far more forgiving of that than if AHA has a letdown game and scrapes by Northfield. Because the opposition is better, it is more understandable if Jefferson has the occasional close game than it would be for AHA.