Class A Rankings 12-23-12

[scorekeeper]

PuckRanger, you are correct.

ACCURATE Rankings are a VERY strong measuring stick of future results. That's why places like LAS VEGAS can so accurately make lines, because those formulas are based on future likelihoods based on past performance, which is largely measured by MOV over SOS.

There are other polls that don't give a rats behind about accuracy. The Coaches Poll. The AP. LPH Hockey Rankings, and apparently the rankings on this thread.

Any legitimate ranking - especially those done by Las Vegas oddsmakers - would have Hermantown #2 or #3.

There are Class A Rankings available that are fashioned in a similar way as Las Vegas numbers.

Mnhockeyrankings.com does currently have Hermantown #2
http://myhockeyrankings.com/rank.php?y= ... &v=703&g=3

This Ranking is the most equivalent with a Las Vegas style oddsmakers Rating.

There are others that are close. Most recently I've been introduced to Mitch Hawkers Ratings ( http://www.ushsho.com/mnrank.htm ) and Lee Pagenkopf's Ratings ( http://minnhock.com/pagestat.htm ). Hawker currently has Hermantown #3 as of December 23rd and Lee has them #2.

All three of these are legitimate and accurate Rating systems, unlike the few agenda-based opinion polls posted on these message boards - although, those are quite interesting reads put together by well meaning people - which do serve to keep the conversation going - they aren't very accurate.

If you are looking for accuracy, use these;
http://www.Mnhockeyrankings.com
http://www.ushsho.com/mnrank.htm
http://minnhock.com/pagestat.htm

Enjoy!

[mn miracle man]

TJ Oshie?

He started out playing Roller Hockey, I doubt any Privates had him on the recruiting radar.

Good recruiters did. There was a good buzz on him through 10 years playing hockey in USA Hockey, most notably as an impact player in USA Hockey's Tier 1 AAA Tournaments with the Northwest Admirals through PeeWee and Bantam.

His family thought he would get the most exposure in Warroad, Minnesota, where they had relatives.

bitter much? what "good recruiters" were scouting out in washington halfway across the country looking for good bantams to bring to minnesota? so if he was so good for 10 years why didn't he move sooner if the "cat was out of the bag" on him?

[scorekeeper]

Never mind Bantam - that's already long in the tooth. It's not a secret who the top peewee players are and where they play ... Seattle, Texas, Florida ... Canada ... Schools like Shattuck and other privates have their fingers on the pulse wherever you play. You'd be suprised

Hell, they draft them as bantams. These kids are identified and evaluated early and top hockey guys (including private school guys) are well aware who they are and where they play.

I'm not saying any school was actively recruiting him, but he certainly was on the radar.

For nastalgia, Minnesota Bantams drafted in Oshies draft year include A.J Thelen (Savage), John Vadnais (Stillwater), and also from the State of Washington - where Oshie if from - Brandon Brown & Matt Butcher

[HShockeywatcher]

PuckRanger, you are correct.

ACCURATE Rankings are a VERY strong measuring stick of future results. That's why places like LAS VEGAS can so accurately make lines, because those formulas are based on future likelihoods based on past performance, which is largely measured by MOV over SOS.

All three of these are legitimate and accurate Rating systems, unlike the few agenda-based opinion polls posted on these message boards - although, those are quite interesting reads put together by well meaning people - which do serve to keep the conversation going - they aren't very accurate.

If you are looking for accuracy, use these;
http://www.Mnhockeyrankings.com
http://www.ushsho.com/mnrank.htm
http://minnhock.com/pagestat.htm

Enjoy!

Please tell me what agenda I have

Please explain to the world the issues with the uscho's pairwise, which currently has dartmouth at #3 (for example, among others), and the ncaa's ranking of both basketball as well as football. They aren't a predictor, they are a formulation of what has happened in the past, period.

As are the three sites you listed. I don't know the math behind it, nor will I speculate on it.
I wouldn't guess that any of them wouldn't have teams with stronger schedules higher, or teams with weaker ones lower, despite wins over teams above them (Princeton below both LF and SCC, for example). That's how computer rankings work, especially early in the season. They balance out as the season goes on, as will mine, and any other opinion polls.

Computers do exactly that; they balance out averages. We see year after year teams that play above "average" schedules despite few games against "good" competition ranked high, while teams who play more "good" teams are ranked similarly, or lower. Same things happen with the BCS year after year. And you have guys on ESPN making more money than I will ever make saying "it isn't wrong, it's simply using the formula that is being put into it; a computer can't see the teams play."

I go one step further. I can't see everyone play, nor will I average everyone's schedules and do some mathematical rating to see where they rank. I do what a computer can't do. I look at who they actually play.
It is funny that week in and week out 20 people get on the AA rankings and say karl does an amazing job, then come on here and run on and on about how terrible of a job I'm doing; if it's really that bad, stop reading and commenting...
http://myhockeyrankings.com/rank.php?y=2012&a=4&v=702
Go on the AA thread and tell him he has Holy Family, Jefferson, Prior Lake, Mounds View, and many others way off because one site after 8-10 games of a 25 game season has them in different places than he does, significantly...

Rankings are a good measure of future results, as I already said, because teams typically continue to do as they did in the past. But they don't necessarily predict them. Nor do many people use them to mean much of anything a couple weeks into the season...
That's why the team in the national championship game on Jan 7th who is #1 in the country is roughly +9 depending on where you look right now...

You are right though; all three ranking sites you listed are 100% right 100% of the time. They are done by a computer and use a specific algorithm with their own criteria that gives you a number and puts the numbers in order.

[HShockeywatcher]

http://myhockeyrankings.com/rank.php?y=2012&a=4&v=703

What about International Falls? I have them at 15 and this site has them at 34; I must have some special agenda...

Or Mahtomedi? They're at 11 in your beloved ranking system, but because they're in my alma mater's conference, I haven't mentioned them aside from keeping them on watch...

Or a South St Paul team I'm probably slightly for the same reason despite a one goal win over Sibley, being shut out by Denfeld and having close games with John Marshall and Red Wing...

Or Marshall, who your beloved system has a #4, despite losing to #6 and going to OT with #20.

Many on here, both in the polls and posters, have said that Mankato West may not even deserve to be ranked, yet your beloved system has them at #13, because...they're winning.

Do you even understand what the "ranking" systems are?
They give each team a rating and order each of those ratings in chronological order, giving you a rank.

The sports world isn't a game of averages. It's real teams playing other real teams and real people have to make observations. You can use one of them to argue so many things at any individual point in the season.
You, for example, will be able to argue that Eagan's schedule is really tough, because they play many "above average" teams all season, despite playing only a handful of "good" teams. I'm even a fan of Eagan, and have been arguing for them for a couple years now, but you are reaching with so much. Virtually everyone was calling you out for it in other threads and you are coming on here and saying the same things.

Hermantown is santa's gift to hockey. They can do no wrong. Good.
All season long last year St Thomas was #1 in the rankings, but I was a moron and called out every week because Hermantown was the best thing since sliced bread, they would kill St Thomas and they should be #1. Look what happened...so which is it, are they "right", are they "wrong" or are they precisely correct with exactly what they measure?

I'll take the latter...

[scorekeeper]

It is funny that week in and week out 20 people get on the AA rankings and say karl does an amazing job, then come on here and run on and on about how terrible of a job I'm doing

Firstly, I didn't say you were doing a terrible job.

Secondly, Karl does do an amazing job.

They are opinion polls which reflect the opinion of the author. They aren't the only two on here. There are others as well. That's fine. They are what they are.

I just don't find many of them particulary accurate, but I do enjoy reading them and I appreciate the effort put into them.

If you are looking for opinions they are great, but if you are looking for accuracy, use these;
http://www.Mnhockeyrankings.com
http://www.ushsho.com/mnrank.htm
http://minnhock.com/pagestat.htm

[scorekeeper]

The sports world isn't a game of averages. It's real teams playing other real teams and real people have to make observations.

Well, they don't actually. They can just observe the kids playing the game and enjoy it. Not sure what the need is for adults to spin the results, but I guess it's there. I am of the opinion that the game belongs to the players and if we are going to rate/rank them then it should be based on the actual results as provided by the players. The beautiful thing about computer generated MOV over SOS ratings is they are 100% objective, keeping opinionated adults (who wish to have control) out of the equation, and allowing the kids/coaches to quantify themselves based on their performance.

Many on here, both in the polls and posters, have said that Mankato West may not even deserve to be ranked, yet your beloved system has them at #13, because...they're winning.

Which is EXACTLY my point. Who is anyone to tell these kids what they deserve and don't deserve. Let the kids quantify themselves by their play on the ice, which is what Mankato West is doing, and doing well. As someone pointed on on another thread regarding Wazyata ... isn't winning enough?

You, for example, will be able to argue that Eagan's schedule is really tough, because they play many "above average" teams all season

It's not for me to argue. I don't need to argue that point. I am just making an observation. Based on current rankings, Eagan does play many Top 20 teams. In fact, based on current ratings, Eagan has played the 3rd toughest schedule in the State to date. That could change, but it is what it right now and that's what it is.

Again, I am not attacking you opinion poll. It's your opinion and it's your poll. My post on here was directed to PuckRanger, who made some very valid points, which I agreed with and supplied some links that confirm his points.

I hope you keep writing your poll, as I enjoy reading it for what it is.

Cheers!

[D3Referee]

Please tell me what agenda I have

I'm not sure agenda is the right word. It's becoming clear now it's more of a Karl envy

It is funny that week in and week out 20 people get on the AA rankings and say karl does an amazing job, then come on here and run on and on about how terrible of a job I'm doing

While Karl's transparent slow-roll of the Hounds fall from grace is certainly betrays any real objectivity in his rankings, but I would suggest it's lmited to East, or at least 7AA. In any event, it's not a major flaw. He at least makes an honest attempt at objectivity with teams that aren't tugging at his heart strings. I don't believe Karl has ever apologized for being a Hounds fan and is a fairly public cheerleader, so when one is reading Karls ranking, it's done with a healthy dose of salt, undoubtedly unloaded on one of Duluths famous inland docks. Still, Karls tinkering to cast East in the best light possible is dwarfed by this vengeful bias in your ranking ...

12. [2] Hermantown (6-1)
The Hawks drop 10 spots as they drop a one goal game across town. Their schedule will allow them to climb as high as is appropriate for them, but until they play some better teams and win, they will stay low after losing to a team no one has ranked.

Forgetting for the moment the hypocrisy of your statement,( considering you have a 1-loss Princeton team in your Top 6, who's loss comes to a weaker team than that of the Hawks). Look instead at the downright peevish position you have taken with those who question such an obviously spiteful move. Albeit in a meaningless ranking of no consequence on a forum message board of all places.

I realize you have been patiently waiting almost 2 years for Hermantown to actually lose a regular season game, so you can deliver this petty blow to the Hawks as if it settles some sort of personal score for you. I can envision you now just about wetting your pants when you saw the score. Might as well take them down 10 pegs right? You sure showed them. You certainly gave an insight to your inner turmoil surrounding this school with this disturbed post.

Hermantown is santa's gift to hockey. They can do no wrong. Good.
All season long last year St Thomas was #1 in the rankings, but I was a moron and called out every week because Hermantown was the best thing since sliced bread.

What you never see Karl doing, is throwing a temper tantrum when someone offers a descenting opinion. He doesn't attack opposing views and he feels no need to make excuses for his own positions.

If you seeking to fulfill your Karl envy, you might dial down your defensive posture and open your mind and heart. I believe Karl finishes each week thanking readers for good discussion, which endears him some and makes those readers feel welcome week after week to chime in, thank him for his hard work, and offer their own comments.

In this regard I leave you with words of wisdom from Owen Wilson's character in You, Me and Dupree where he informs Matt Dillon's character that it's not really about Karl; it's about Karl-ness"

So I emplore you, let go of all your anger. The pain comes from holding on. It's time to channel your inner Karl; your Karl-ness

[karl(east)]

While Karl's transparent slow-roll of the Hounds fall from grace is certainly betrays any real objectivity in his rankings, but I would suggest it's lmited to East, or at least 7AA. In any event, it's not a major flaw. He at least makes an honest attempt at objectivity with teams that aren't tugging at his heart strings. I don't believe Karl has ever apologized for being a Hounds fan and is a fairly public cheerleader, so when one is reading Karls ranking, it's done with a healthy dose of salt, undoubtedly unloaded on one of Duluths famous inland docks. Still, Karls tinkering to cast East in the best light possible is dwarfed by this vengeful bias in your ranking ...

I will politely point out that LPH has had East higher than me every single week of the season, from the preseason poll to the current one. That doesn't necessarily mean I'm not overrating the Hounds--maybe LPH is just that bad. (I have my disagreements with them, but in the end they do tend to get a lot right.) But plenty of non-East people seem to think this team is (marginally) better than I do. Time will tell.

Beyond that, I hope I can be excused for finding the rest of your post a bit weird, now that my essence has been invoked as some sort of ideal.

[D3Referee]

Sorry Karl. Didnt mean to weird you out. I just thought he was almost whining about how people treat him and how people treat you. I was just pointing out that it has less to with his content and more to do with how he chooses to interact with people.

Also not dissing your Hounds. There is a culture in the State that sometimes seem to favor the hockey have's , sometimes at the expense of the hockey have-not's. I think this is justified to a great extent as we have come to expect a lot from our hardened hockey communities and programs and they seldom dissapoint, so to some extent the expectation is justified.

[karl(east)]

Sorry Karl. Didnt mean to weird you out. I just thought he was almost whining about how people treat him and how people treat you. I was just pointing out that it has less to with his content and more to do with how he chooses to interact with people.

Also not dissing your Hounds. There is a culture in the State that sometimes seem to favor the hockey have's , sometimes at the expense of the hockey have-not's. I think this is justified to a great extent as we have come to expect a lot from our hardened hockey communities and programs and they seldom dissapoint, so to some extent the expectation is justified.

No worries--I get what you're saying, though as a moderator, I don't think it's my place to say anything more.

While I agree attention on this forum often favors the "haves," and there are places where this bias has unfortunate consequences (for example, spots in the Elite League), it's not always the case when it comes to rankings. I remember when I first did a set of preseason rankings in 2009-2010, and teams like Edina and East had lost a lot of their top-flight talent off teams that were seeded at State the year before. I buried them in the 10-15 range in the preseason rankings, and scoffed at LPH having them in the top ten.

Come March, LPH had the last laugh. Edina won it all, and though East had its ups and downs, they wound up with a consolation title, which was a better finish than the "more talented" team had managed the previous year. The lesson I took away from that was to never underestimate the depth of a program with past success. Eagan this year is another good example of that.

Sometimes I have tried elevating a less-known program higher in the rankings to take a gamble--Prior Lake and Andover would be good examples in this year's preseason rankings. Both have shown flashes, but neither has proven they've belonged that high yet. For all the crap we give LPH on here--and I do think some of it is deserved--conventional wisdom often does get a lot right.

[goldy313]

PuckRanger, you are correct.

ACCURATE Rankings are a VERY strong measuring stick of future results. That's why places like LAS VEGAS can so accurately make lines, because those formulas are based on future likelihoods based on past performance, which is largely measured by MOV over SOS.

There are other polls that don't give a rats behind about accuracy. The Coaches Poll. The AP. LPH Hockey Rankings, and apparently the rankings on this thread.

Any legitimate ranking - especially those done by Las Vegas oddsmakers - would have Hermantown #2 or #3.

There are Class A Rankings available that are fashioned in a similar way as Las Vegas numbers.

No they are not, not even close.
Las Vegas odds are set so half the money comes in on both sides of the bet so no matter what happens the sportsbooks make money. In theory they could care less which teams win or lose because 50% of the money should be on either side of the bet. In futures wagering it's the same principal spread out more. The numbers are determined by a lot of factors rather than who is higher "ranked", in fact by design there is no Las Vegas rankings system beyond the futures and that changes based almost soley on past performance and potential results; the Saints can't win the Superbowl so the Vikings odds are better this week than they were last week.

Again rankings have the Gophers basketball team ahead of Michigan State, Florida, and Kentucky; Michigan State is 25-1 to the NCAA basketball tournament while Minnesota is 33-1, Kentucky who is unranked is 12-1 and Florida is ranked below Minnesota is also 12-1. Michigan is ranked #2 and is 14-1. So much for Las Vegas using rankings to determine future success.

[MHGr8ness]

Please tell me what agenda I have

I'm not sure agenda is the right word. It's becoming clear now it's more of a Karl envy

It is funny that week in and week out 20 people get on the AA rankings and say karl does an amazing job, then come on here and run on and on about how terrible of a job I'm doing

While Karl's transparent slow-roll of the Hounds fall from grace is certainly betrays any real objectivity in his rankings, but I would suggest it's lmited to East, or at least 7AA. In any event, it's not a major flaw. He at least makes an honest attempt at objectivity with teams that aren't tugging at his heart strings. I don't believe Karl has ever apologized for being a Hounds fan and is a fairly public cheerleader, so when one is reading Karls ranking, it's done with a healthy dose of salt, undoubtedly unloaded on one of Duluths famous inland docks. Still, Karls tinkering to cast East in the best light possible is dwarfed by this vengeful bias in your ranking ...

12. [2] Hermantown (6-1)
The Hawks drop 10 spots as they drop a one goal game across town. Their schedule will allow them to climb as high as is appropriate for them, but until they play some better teams and win, they will stay low after losing to a team no one has ranked.

Forgetting for the moment the hypocrisy of your statement,( considering you have a 1-loss Princeton team in your Top 6, who's loss comes to a weaker team than that of the Hawks). Look instead at the downright peevish position you have taken with those who question such an obviously spiteful move. Albeit in a meaningless ranking of no consequence on a forum message board of all places.

I realize you have been patiently waiting almost 2 years for Hermantown to actually lose a regular season game, so you can deliver this petty blow to the Hawks as if it settles some sort of personal score for you. I can envision you now just about wetting your pants when you saw the score. Might as well take them down 10 pegs right? You sure showed them. You certainly gave an insight to your inner turmoil surrounding this school with this disturbed post.

Hermantown is santa's gift to hockey. They can do no wrong. Good.
All season long last year St Thomas was #1 in the rankings, but I was a moron and called out every week because Hermantown was the best thing since sliced bread.

What you never see Karl doing, is throwing a temper tantrum when someone offers a descenting opinion. He doesn't attack opposing views and he feels no need to make excuses for his own positions.

If you seeking to fulfill your Karl envy, you might dial down your defensive posture and open your mind and heart. I believe Karl finishes each week thanking readers for good discussion, which endears him some and makes those readers feel welcome week after week to chime in, thank him for his hard work, and offer their own comments.

In this regard I leave you with words of wisdom from Owen Wilson's character in You, Me and Dupree where he informs Matt Dillon's character that it's not really about Karl; it's about Karl-ness"

So I emplore you, let go of all your anger. The pain comes from holding on. It's time to channel your inner Karl; your Karl-ness

Probably the best post I've ever seen.

[scorekeeper]

PuckRanger, you are correct.

ACCURATE Rankings are a VERY strong measuring stick of future results. That's why places like LAS VEGAS can so accurately make lines, because those formulas are based on future likelihoods based on past performance, which is largely measured by MOV over SOS.

There are other polls that don't give a rats behind about accuracy. The Coaches Poll. The AP. LPH Hockey Rankings, and apparently the rankings on this thread.

Any legitimate ranking - especially those done by Las Vegas oddsmakers - would have Hermantown #2 or #3.

There are Class A Rankings available that are fashioned in a similar way as Las Vegas numbers.

No they are not, not even close.
Las Vegas odds are set so half the money comes in on both sides of the bet so no matter what happens the sportsbooks make money. In theory they could care less which teams win or lose because 50% of the money should be on either side of the bet. In futures wagering it's the same principal spread out more. The numbers are determined by a lot of factors rather than who is higher "ranked", in fact by design there is no Las Vegas rankings system beyond the futures and that changes based almost soley on past performance and potential results; the Saints can't win the Superbowl so the Vikings odds are better this week than they were last week.

Again rankings have the Gophers basketball team ahead of Michigan State, Florida, and Kentucky; Michigan State is 25-1 to the NCAA basketball tournament while Minnesota is 33-1, Kentucky who is unranked is 12-1 and Florida is ranked below Minnesota is also 12-1. Michigan is ranked #2 and is 14-1. So much for Las Vegas using rankings to determine future success.

Goldy, you are kinda right, but really wrong. As an oddsmaker for most of the past 20 years and a bookmaker for years at one of the worlds largest sportsbooks, let me tell you how it really happens.

In the old days we had oddsmakers & bookmakers and there was a very clear distinction between the two. ODDSMAKERS would supply BOOKMAKERS with a number that represents a reasonable outcome for the game and then BOOKMAKERS would manipulate the number to balance their own books. It was not uncommon, as recently as 13 years ago, to see a Knicks/Lakers line with as much as a 6 points disparity in New York and Los Angeles, so New York bettors could bet the Knicks -3 with the neighborhood bookie but in Los Angeles, Laker bettors would also have to bet -3. The name BOOKMAKING really comes from bookies having to balance their books in the fashion that you ellude to. Since different bookies had a different clientelle with different tendencies, the line would have to be different in different markets - even though there was an established National line.

Since the popularity of online wagering exploded, these discrepencies rarely exist beyond a point on any given day. The lines still move throughout the week - and longer for events like Bowl games, but the disparity no longer exists in significant number. Because the line has become widely available internationally, it has standardized to a large extent. Small discrepencies do exist, but nowhere near what they used to be.

That has led to a real need for the line to be razor sharp and mathematical rankings have served that purpose and serve it welll. The ODDSMAKERS line is now largely the betting line, as there isn't a lot of room for manipulation. These days, BOOKMAKERS more often use the accompanying LINE to balance their books. For example, a line that might open Knicks -3/-110 (over Los Angeles) might be listed as Knicks -2.5/-120 with a book that has a large Laker clientelle.

These lines are derrived from what we call ODDSMAKER RATINGS. Some shops have their own and some are contracted out. A company I spent some time with, Las Vegas Sports Consultants, does a lot of this contracting. Regardless of where the number comes from, out of neccessity they are all very close and they are ALL based on MATHEMATICAL MOV over SOS forumulas like the ones produced for youth hockey on MyHockeyRankings.com

Bottom line - when we are making moneylines and pointspreads for sporting events, we ABSOLUTELY AND ALWAYS USE MATHEMATICAL RATINGS. They aren't the opinion polls that you, and most of the public are familiar with. We don't use the coaches poll, or the Associated press poll or the BCS Rankings. Those are not accurate.

We have our own ODDSMAKER RATINGS - and it may not suprise you to know that OUR MATHEMATICAL RATINGS have Alabama as a -9 point favorite over Notre Dame. We don't consider the OPINION POLLS whatsoever - and that's been my point here all along.

LPH is great. Opinion polls are fun. So is the USA Today College Football poll. But they aren't accurate. Mathematical polls ARE VERY ACCURATE. They aren't just useful in splitting the bet - they are also the most accurate predictor of outcomes. period. Tried. Tested. Proven. So accurate, indeed, that you can build a multi-billion dollar industry on them.

The closest thing available to how we do it professionally is the MyHockeyRanking ratings at http://www.Mnhockeyrankings.com

While I haven't seen these other two over the course of a full season, so far, they are very close to accurate
http://www.ushsho.com/mnrank.htm
http://minnhock.com/pagestat.htm

[scorekeeper]

For all the crap we give LPH on here--and I do think some of it is deserved

Like today. Minnetonka loses by 1 to Hill Murray and drops from 2nd to 7th.

At the same time, Blaine loses by 2 to Bursnville and moves up from 6th to 5th.

Wayzata, by attrition, finds itself in 3rd spot even though they haven't beat a single team in the Top 13.

Really curious to see what they do with East after yet another dissapointing loss

None of it makes any real hockey sense. They'd do better pulling it out of a hat

[PuckRanger]

What about International Falls? I have them at 15 and this site has them at 34; I must have some special agenda...

I can make a case a 1-6-1 team should be ranked ahead of I Falls, so 34 is probably more accurate. Virginia has better results with common opponents, but has played a much tougher schedule.

Take a look:
International Falls (3-3-2)
Similar results to Virginia with one glaring difference: Virginia had no trouble with Eveleth-Gilbert, but I Falls tied them 3-3 while surviving a penalty shot in OT and were outshot 8-1 in OT, lucky to hang on with a tie. Had a near identical outcome with Little Falls as Virginia, outshooting the Flyers, but losing by 4. Tied Virginia at home, where traditionally Virginia has struggled. Lost to Denfeld in basically a one goal game, but were outshot by a 2-1 margin. Close wins over Lake of the Woods and Proctor are not impressive.

-Tied Eveleth 3-3
-Lost to Little Falls 5-1 (SOG 38-34 IF)
-Tied Virginia 5-5 at home
-Lost to Denfeld 6-4(EN) (SOG 39-20 Denfeld)

-Lost to Hibbing 3-1.
-Beat TRF 3-2
-Close wins over LOW 3-2 , and Proctor 5-2)

Virginia (1-6-1)
Played a brutal schedule to start. Probably should have been closer to Little Falls, but injuries to two goaltenders hurt them in that one, lost by 5, but outshot them in every period and probably had more scoring chances. Should have beaten Warroad as well, a mix up on a line change resulted in 4 players on the ice turned in two goals seconds apart in the second period. Again Virginia had more shots and more scoring chances. Right there with Denfeld and Cloquet, 3 goal loss to Rapids. Lead Hermantown for a while before the wheels came off in that one.

-Beat Eveleth 7-3
-Lost to Little Falls 6-1 (SOG 26-23 Virginia)
-Tied I Falls 5-5 on road
-Lost to Denfeld 5-3(EN)(SOG 29-22 Denfeld)

-Lost to Warroad 3-1(EN) (SOG 29-27 Virginia) Virginia probably should've won this one

-ALL losses to ranked teams (Cloquet 3-0-EN, Grand Rapids 4-1, Hermantown in addition to above)


I also think Warroad and Prinecton are way to high, but I am leaving that alone for now.

[karl(east)]

For all the crap we give LPH on here--and I do think some of it is deserved

Like today. Minnetonka loses by 1 to Hill Murray and drops from 2nd to 7th.

At the same time, Blaine loses by 2 to Bursnville and moves up from 6th to 5th.

Wayzata, by attrition, finds itself in 3rd spot even though they haven't beat a single team in the Top 13.

Really curious to see what they do with East after yet another dissapointing loss

None of it makes any real hockey sense. They'd do better pulling it out of a hat

Exactly. Their in-season rankings often leave one scratching one's head and asking "how on earth do they figure that?" (Though to their credit, Wayzata picked up an impressive win over Jefferson today.)

[HShockeywatcher]

What you never see Karl doing, is throwing a temper tantrum when someone offers a descenting opinion. He doesn't attack opposing views and he feels no need to make excuses for his own positions.

I haven't thrown a temper tantrum, I have been explaining my opinion and asking questions.

All of those things you listed are things I do every week. I bring up karl because when he explains his opinions, for example, the worst he gets is "we can agree to disagree." When people disagree with me, they call me names and make up weird explanations about how I've wanted for years to drop Hermantown in the rankings or something weird like that


Princeton wasn't ranked because they weren't on anyone's radar. They became ranked after they beat two ranked teams in the same which, all of which happened after their one loss. When this most recent rankings came out Hermantown had lost to an unranked team and only has wins over unranked teams on their schedule.
I'm still looking for a response to the Breck analogy...

I have been doing these rankings for 4 or 5 seasons now (honestly not sure how long) because I enjoy it. I enjoy analyzing schedules, teams, and having discussion about a sport I enjoy watching.

My attitudes for how to compare scores hasn't changed much in that time, nor has how I have done things:
-In the beginning of the season one game matters a lot and with not a lot of head to head match ups happening teams move up or down a lot based on one result. Generally, if a team has beaten another team, they are ranked ahead of them.
-Later in the season the whole of all team's schedules are taken into account more, as teams play many other teams there is more to compare and it is often impossible to simply rank teams above others they've beaten. The schedule in its entirety gives me a better idea if losses (and wins) were flukes or not.

I have never claimed that I see every team play (in fact claimed I don't) nor that three weeks into the season a lower ranked team would beat a higher ranked team.
So as not to use any bias, I start with LPH's rankings as a starting point and the only thing I frame the vast majority of my rankings with is game results.

For the teams who could really be put in any spot in a 5-10 rank range, I use the opinions and feedback I get from others. I actually get quite multiple messages in PMs that are given to me respectfully that give me information contrary to what many people on here say.

I have done my rankings as consistently as I can since I've done them. I have also been very transparent about them and take feedback as well as criticism. If the response is that I should simply not explain things to people, then that is fine feedback, if it is the case.

Three people posted in the comments on last weeks rankings I believe, and we are on the second page of this week's. Keep the discussion going; lots of good games out there this week.

Thanks for your words. Happy holidays everyone!

[goldy313]

Using Mitch's Wisconsin rankings and HSHW MN rankings....

#1 Notre Dame Academy 2
#14Mankato West 1

#4 Northland Pines 4
#4 Rochester Lourdes 2

Maybe West should be higher.....though being a 1A team not named Lourdes carries a crutch no matter what poll you look at

In Wisconsin teams.....
#3 Verona 5
#57 WSFLG 4

With Northland Pines beating Lourdes a potential #3 vs #4 game could happen Saturday. Though it is WI, based on the above conversation it is interesting.

[HShockeywatcher]

It is nice to see teams play against the top teams of WI, but it would also be nice to see more match ups of MN teams at MARS. Oh well, I guess comparisons is what we have. Any info from people that were at the tournament?

Anyone with any feedback on St Francis? They have now wins over Princeton, Denfeld, Chisago Lakes, Irondale and now Virginia, as well as crushing losses to Totino and AA Forest lake.
They aren't a Class A team, but have many meetings with them, so I'm curious.

Anyone on Cathedral? Were they without their best player in their loss? Is he that important to the team, or is Tech not that bad despite how their results look?

Anyone at the LF/Hutch game? Hutch out shot LF in the 3rd and Stumpf allowed 3 goals on 21 shots...

Thoughts on Orono? They shut out SPA and just beat CDH in a high scoring affair; play AA Mounds View tomorrow.

Thoughts on Breck? They shut out East yesterday and played a good game with St Thomas today.


Looking for feedback on some or all of this, as well as what happens tomorrow. There are very few match ups of teams I had ranked last week, so feedback is going to be the big thing that gets teams moved from where they were last week.

Thanks for the discussion!

[BobSaget]

Anyone on Cathedral? Were they without their best player in their loss? Is he that important to the team, or is Tech not that bad despite how their results look?

I'll bite on the Cathedral as I've seen them play several times as well as the rest of central MN...

First...yes, they were without Poganski for the Tech game. And yes, he really does matter that much.

On Tech, they are a decent team with a few nice players. That said, SCC is certainly more talented.

The reality, when it comes to rankings, is that SCC has some rather unimpressive losses to both Princeton and Tech. Their problem is certainly not from a lack of talent.

In the Princeton game, the team had a million penalty minutes and gave up, I believe, 3 goals while on a 5x3 disadvantage. Anytime a team spends 3/4 of a game on the powerplay they (Princeton) should win. Was Cathedral the more talented team? Absolutely. Did they win? No.

In the Tech game, Cathedral was again the more talented team even without Poganski. However, once again, the team took several really stupid penalties including one while on the powerplay with a minute or two remaining in the game. Once again, Cathedral was a more talented team that took themselves out of the game by playing selfish, undisciplined hockey.

I think this Cathedral team is very talented. Probably have the talent of a top five team. However, it's been a long time since I've seen a team play this undisciplined. Yes, the 5-minute majors are being issued very frequently these days. But teams can either adjust to the rules and play smarter...or they can continue to try and beat down their opponents physically and take 30 PIMs a game. This team has clearly chosen the latter.

Additionally, before yesterday's win vs. Sauk Rapids, SCC doesn't score any hard working goals. It seems like 90% of their goals happen when a dominant HS player like Poganski, Swingle, Fritz, etc. just takes the puck and makes it happen against weaker competition. Very few of their goals happen from creating traffic out front or nice team passing plays...a lot of individuals.

Simply put, this SCC team is a bunch of undisciplined individuals that aren't willing to do what they have to do to win...especially against good teams. The hardworkers play undisciplined hockey and many others simply don't work hard.

[Mite-dad]

Get used to these kinds of wins for Little Falls. These are my opinions of course, so take them with a grain of salt. LF wins by grinding and hustling. They don't really have a great scorer on the team. They win by forechecking like there's no tomorrow, being physical, and crashing the net. They are solid defensively on the back end, but I'm not sure how great the forwards play defense. I think they sometimes get burned by being so aggressive in the offensive end. Thank God they have a very good goalie. I also think some players get selfish and point hungry at times, especially against teams "they should beat". What I think all this leads to is they will win close games against good teams but they will win "ugly" against some teams they should really dominate. I think the jury is out on this group until they play Hermantown and SCC. Then we will see where they stand. At this point I think they are ranked right where they ought to be, around 9-12.

[puckstopper33]

St.Francis has some nice players at the very top of their lineup and a great goalie that will steal them some games (grand rapids), they have potential but also have a long way to go if they want to make some noise in playoffs. Just my take.

[The Insider]

St.Francis has some nice players at the very top of their lineup and a great goalie that will steal them some games (grand rapids), they have potential but also have a long way to go if they want to make some noise in playoffs. Just my take.

Sorry, but I just dont see St Francis making much noise in Section 7AA

[northern_guy]

these are the only Class A rankings i value or see having any merit whatsoever...thoughtful consideration and analysis goes into each week...i would expect better and more rhyme and reason from hockey hub..same with followthepuck.