The Stay or Leave High School Question - by John Russo

[Sats81]

Lets look at the question fromt his angle: Does Minnesota HS Hockey prepare a player for college hockey?

I pulled the MR Hockey and Brimsek nominees from 2011, 2012 and 2013 and looked them up on Hockey db. I asssume if any sample should be tested for college readiness, its this group. ( am counting Vanellii as ready becasue he had a great year in the Major Juniors)

There are a total of 36 players nominated. Of those 36, about 33% went straight to college (Besse, Rau, Daly, Bischoff, Archibald, Reno, Gleinke, Vanelli, Zajac, LaBate, Sampair, Merchant ). Only six of these players dressed for 30 games their freshman year, which is about 80% of the total that a college team plays. Only these six (Besse, Labate, Rau, Everson, Vanellii and Archibald) went straight to college and had more then ten points as freshmen.


So, of the very best Minnesota high school players the last three years, 6 of 36 (about 15%) were ready to contirbute meaningfully to thier college program straight from high school. Of course, the percentage of players ready tio contribute would only go down if we look outside of the cream of the crop.

One surprise is that two of the players (20%) who went straight to college left college hockey after their freshman season.

If i was a college coach, I think I would not rely on a freshman straight from Minnesota HS to make a serious contribution to my team. Minnesota Hockey does not, generally, prepare players to play college hiockey. They end up needing more development somewhere else.

Also, Glienke went to USHL after short tenure at Maine this winter....

[bsmguy]

It is not a question of being "dominant". Its about being ready to make a contribution. Only six of these 36 high school superstars could muster even ten points their freshman year.

These are the very best seniors in Minnesota HS Hockey, over the most recent three years. These are the Mr. Hockey nominees. And only a small minority are ready to play after high school, without further development.

College coaches have no Minnesota bias. They want a kid who can help them win. Odds are, the kid coming out of Minnesota HS is not yet ready to contribute.

[MrBoDangles]

Lets look at the question fromt his angle: Does Minnesota HS Hockey prepare a player for college hockey?

I pulled the MR Hockey and Brimsek nominees from 2011, 2012 and 2013 and looked them up on Hockey db. I asssume if any sample should be tested for college readiness, its this group. ( am counting Vanellii as ready becasue he had a great year in the Major Juniors)

There are a total of 36 players nominated. Of those 36, about 33% went straight to college (Besse, Rau, Daly, Bischoff, Archibald, Reno, Gleinke, Vanelli, Zajac, LaBate, Sampair, Merchant ). Only six of these players dressed for 30 games their freshman year, which is about 80% of the total that a college team plays. Only these six (Besse, Labate, Rau, Everson, Vanellii and Archibald) went straight to college and had more then ten points as freshmen.


So, of the very best Minnesota high school players the last three years, 6 of 36 (about 15%) were ready to contirbute meaningfully to thier college program straight from high school. Of course, the percentage of players ready tio contribute would only go down if we look outside of the cream of the crop.

One surprise is that two of the players (20%) who went straight to college left college hockey after their freshman season.

If i was a college coach, I think I would not rely on a freshman straight from Minnesota HS to make a serious contribution to my team. Minnesota Hockey does not, generally, prepare players to play college hiockey. They end up needing more development somewhere else.

Seth Ambroz started playing in the USHL when he was 15 years old and was highly touted the whole time. When he came to the Gophers he was outplayed by many other newcomers that came straight from high school... He's finally starting to show some potential that everybody saw before he left for jrs. Could have switched from New Prague to BSM or Edina and been just as prepared.

Lots to be said for being home with/for family, school times, outdoor ice, dominating at a level,.. Etc. They spend more time on a bus in jrs than actually playing/practicing hockey. I haven't seen much difference in Gopher players that have come in as 18 year olds... But of course it will help being a older 19-20 year old since they're an older freshman..

You can't expect 18 year olds to step in and be dominant at the college level, no matter what path they took.

I think Fasching has been as "dominant" as possible as an 18 year old can be. He has been excellent majority of this season.

As for Ambroz, I think the big ice sheet at Mariucci had a lot to do with him struggling early in his college career as he is not the best skater.

True. Rau could also be described as fairly "dominant" as a freshman being right out of hs.

Did that big time mojo go right from his dominant sr year in to his freshman year with the Gophs? Would skipping that amazing sr season for jrs have helped him as a 18 year old?

I really have my doubts...

[WestMetro]

BSM Guy

I like your statistical approach.....

A person could debate the separation of forwards vs Ds vs goalies, and also debate whether to separate top 3 or 4.

Additionally, arent you really now posing a different question altogether?

So in my mind, to repeat the separate and distinct questions of this age old debate

1) Is a top U18 kid better off staying at home to finish high school from a maturity and education point of view, assuming HS offers competitive hockey option which will serve his personal hockey objectives at least as well as if he left early for juniors?

2) If the answer to the first part is Yes , but the second part is No, then what changes are needed to Minn HS or U18 programs? i.e BSRs April Elite League/National Championship eligibility suggestion as one example

3) If he does choose to leave his native MN high school, why cant Minn State of Hockey come up with competitive junior programs or U18 NDTP program so our top U18s don't have to go away to Iowa, ND or Mich? That way , the kid can be closer to home and Minn can benefit economically from its own home grown talent

3) Your question: should a Minnesota U18 not only finish high school with a quality Minnesota program but also spend a year in juniors before starting college career? Nowadays, the answer to that question is getting more and more likely yes, but at least the kids are no longer U18. Here again, hopefully Minn can soon progress to offer better junior options so even those kids don't have to always go out of state