Section 4AA 2007-8

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Wed Nov 21, 2007 8:30 am

Northland wrote:Any predictions for the Stillwater / North game Saturday?
.

I'll say Stillwater 6, NSP 2

startsinthenet · Post by **startsinthenet** » Fri Nov 23, 2007 3:23 pm

I expect Stillwater to get more pucks in the net against NSP than in their last 2 outings. Ponies played 4 games in 6 days and pucks didn't really bounce there way offensivly the last 2 games. Defense and goaltending have been very strong, offense is due!

joehockey · Post by **joehockey** » Fri Nov 23, 2007 6:35 pm

Stillwater's offense has to be missing top line player jr. Lauren Charpentier who is out with Mono. Tuesday against HM an 8th grader Eder-Zdechlik skated on top line with Dahl and Schwab.

joehockey · Post by **joehockey** » Sun Jan 13, 2008 12:22 pm

So with one month to play here is a rank of teams by QRF

1 Roseville 95.6 14-3-1
2 Stillwater 91.0 15-1-2
3 White Bear 70.1 9-7-2
4 Hill Murray 68.1 12-4-1
5 Cretin Derham Hall 59.9 7-8-3
6 N. St Paul 58.4 10-7-0
7 Mlps. Novas 51.1 11-4-3
8 St. Paul Blades 39.5 8-8-1
9 Tartan 19.6 0-16

Potential First Round Games:

Roseville vs Blades or Tartan
Stillwater vs. Mlps Novas
White Bear vs. NSP
Hill Murray vs. Cretin Derham Hall

This will be a tough section to get to state from!

hockey_rocker · Post by **hockey_rocker** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 4:20 pm

HERE WE GO! LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

SECTION 4AA BRACKET

#8 St Paul Blades
2/6 St Croix Valley 7pm
#9 Tartan

#1 Roseville
2/9 St Croix 3PM
Winner #8 vs #9

#4 White Bear Lake
2/9 St Croix 1PM
#5 Cretin DH

#3 Hill Murray
2/8 Fogerty 6PM
#6 North St Paul

#7 Mpls. Novas
2/8 Fogerty 8PM
#2 Stillwater

SECHockeyFan · Post by **SECHockeyFan** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 4:45 pm

WB will win this section, they have the best goalie in the state.

hockeyheaven · Post by **hockeyheaven** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 5:21 pm

They may have been screwed out of the third seed but let's not get crazy. Long shot at best.

brookyone · Post by **brookyone** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 5:39 pm

How much difference does the #3 vs. #4 seed make when, barring upsets, you likely end up playing Stillwater or Roseville in the semi? Not much in my estimation. A tough road to the tourney for any / all teams in 4AA

hockeyheaven · Post by **hockeyheaven** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 6:25 pm

In this case I think alot. WBL, CDH and HM are very very comparable. North IMO is a big drop. However you have to win them all. good luck to all teams am sure it will be a barn burner.

joehockey · Post by **joehockey** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 7:22 pm

4AA Goalies - When you look at the GAA of the top 100 Goalies in the State here is how the 4AA goalies rank out - top group and I am sure they will have a lot to do with the success their teams have in sections:

StateRank Goalie Class School GAA
5 Marah Sobczak (Soph) Stillwater MN 1.199
6 Briana Brausen (Sr) Roseville MN 1.218
12 Erika Allen (8) Roseville MN 1.381
14 Katie Weise (Sr) Mlps Novas MN 1.435
17 Lizz Wenzel (Jr) Hill-Murray MN 1.582
22 Rachael Snell (Soph) North MN 1.681
24 Alicia Paul (Sr) Hill-Murray MN 1.764
34 Madeline Lenz (Sr) White Bear Lake MN 2
54 Callie Strom (Sr) North MN 2.573
58 Kelsey Scott (Jr) Cretin-Derham Hall MN 2.693
63 Lea Jondal (Sr) Cretin-Derham Hall MN 2.84
71 Becca Macrostie (Sr) St. Paul Blades MN 2.959

hockey_rocker · Post by **hockey_rocker** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 8:51 pm

Before you rank goalies according to goals against average you should look at the minutes played and the number of shots each goalie faces. This is why you should rank goalies by save percentage of shots faced. Some of these goalie have minimal amount of minutes as well as shots. Compare minutes and shots and you will see a much different ranking.

anderc14 · Post by **anderc14** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:21 pm

Why would you say that White Bear Lake has the best goalie in the state? The Minneapolis Novas Sr. goalie is leading the state in shoutouts with 9 so far this season. Do we assume that the suburbs have the best goalies just becuse they are the suburbs? Maybe so- but please explain...

joehockey · Post by **joehockey** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:29 pm

So here is goals against with goals and minutes added. This is a strong group and should make for some great games.

GAA State Rank GAA Goals Minutes
5 Marah Sobczak,(Soph), Stillwater MN 1.199 27 1148
6 Briana Brausen,(Sr), Roseville MN 1.218 16 670
12 Erika Allen,(8), Roseville MN 1.381 13 480
14 Katie Weise,(Sr), Minneapolis Novas MN 1.435 34 1208
17 Lizz Wenzel,(Sr), Hill-Murray MN 1.582 17 548
22 Rachael Snell,(Soph), North MN 1.681 12 364
24 Alicia Paul,(Sr), Hill-Murray MN 1.764 22 636
34 Madeline Lenz,(Sr), White Bear Lake MN 2 40 1020
54 Callie Strom,(Sr), North MN 2.573 39 773
58 Kelsey Scott,(Jr), Cretin-Derham Hall MN 2.693 32 606
63 Lea Jondal,(Sr), Cretin-Derham Hall MN 2.84 24 431
71 Bacca Macrostie,(Sr), St. Paul Blades MN 2.959 68 1172
NA Kaitlyn Rolando,(Soph), Tartan MN 4.75 57 612

goalzilla · Post by **goalzilla** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:32 pm

Seen them all and Sobzeck IMO she consistently looks the best. And I believe after last night she has 9 shutouts as well. If it should happen to come down to Roseville and StillH20 its to be decided by the "D" and net performance.

anderc14 · Post by **anderc14** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:50 pm

You are correct- Novas and Stillwater goalies are tied at nine shutouts each for the season. Both goalies have had tremendous seasons. I am just questioning the rationale with the comment about the White Bear Lake goalie- show me the data that supports the assumption that their goalie is the best. When I look at the GAA they are ranked 34 or so.. there may be something there that I don't understand but numbers generally represent the truth.

joehockey · Post by **joehockey** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:55 pm

One more look - all pretty tough

4AA Goalies GAA Goals Minutes Saves Save %
Marah Sobczak,(Soph), Stillwater MN 1.199 27 1148 453 0.94375
Briana Brausen,(Sr), Roseville MN 1.218 16 670 196 0.92453
Erika Allen,(8), Roseville MN 1.381 13 480 142 0.91613
Katie Weise,(Sr), Minneapolis Novas MN 1.435 34 1208 430 0.92672
Lizz Wenzel,(Sr), Hill-Murray MN 1.582 17 548 196 0.92019
Rachael Snell,(Soph), North MN 1.681 12 364 123 0.91111
Alicia Paul,(Sr), Hill-Murray MN 1.764 22 636 244 0.91729
Madeline Lenz,(Sr), White Bear Lake MN 2 40 1020 533 0.93019
Callie Strom,(Sr), North MN 2.573 39 773 329 0.89402
Kelsey Scott,(Jr), Cretin-Derham Hall MN 2.693 32 606 222 0.87402
Lea Jondal,(Sr), Cretin-Derham Hall MN 2.84 24 431 210 0.89744
Becca Macrostie,(Sr), St. Paul Blades MN 2.959 68 1172 685 0.90969
Kaitlyn Rolando,(Soph), Tartan MN 4.75 57 612 366 0.86525

hockey_rocker · Post by **hockey_rocker** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 12:48 am

OK Heres how it needs to be done. Although it doesn't have the formatting so it doesn't look as good, let me try and explain. The first number is the number of teams each goalie faced that are ranked AA in the latest issue of LPH. The second number is Ranked Class A teams faced. The numbers with dashes, are the records against those teams. What I did was take all the stats, Minutes, GAA, Saves, Save % Shutouts, and ranked strength of schedule. Then I took an average of ranking from each category. That is the last number. That is how they are ranked. Sort of a QRF for goalies. What it does not show, is some goalies have alot of shutouts, but only saw an average of about 12 shots per game in those shutouts. It also does not show the strength of the LPH ranked teams. When I did strength of schedule, I also looked at the other teams on each goalie's schedule. PM me if you want to see how it all looks in Excel.

Goalie Team LPH AA LPH A LPH Avg
Record Rank
Marah Sobczak Stillwater 8 2 7-2-1 2.0
Lenz, Madeline White Bear Lake 8 1 3-5-1 3.2
Weise, Katie Minneapolis Novas 0 5 0-3-2 4.0
Brausen, Brianna Roseville 4 0 1-3-0 5.2
PAUL, ALICIA Hill-Murray 5 4 5-4-0 6.2
MacRostie, Becca St. Paul Blades 5 0 0-5-0 6.7
Strom, Callie North St. Paul 4 4 4-4-0 7.3
WENZEL, LIZZ Hill-Murray 2 4 4-1-1 7.3
Allen, Erika Roseville 4 0 1-1-2 7.8
Scott, Kelsey Cretin-Derham Hall 4 1 0-3-2 9.0
Rachel Snell North St. Paul 3 3 3-3-0 9.3
Jondal, Lea Cretin-Derham Hall 4 0 1-3-0 10.0

hockey_rocker · Post by **hockey_rocker** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 12:55 am

Ran out of space. Be sure and leave an email address if you want a copy. Also, every goalie does their best for their team. Some have better teams in front of them than others. Either way it's a tough job. I have been told by several D1 coaches that this is the best year ever for Sr goalies in Minnesota. Great job, all of you. You also can't rank how some goalies can just step it up when they have to. Good luck to all of you.

hockey_rocker · Post by **hockey_rocker** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 7:31 am

Let me clarify something, I said my number is an average of each category. It is an average of ALL the categories. GAA, Save %, Saves, Shutouts, Strength of Schedule.

Bensonmum · Post by **Bensonmum** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 9:46 am

I hadn't thought about it until there was a list like above, but this section does have an outstanding collection of goalies.

Unlike WBL boosters, I agree 100% that HM should be the #3 seed (I explained why above and stick with that). That being said, I'd say that Roseville is going to have the much tougher 2nd round game than Stillwater if they win their 1st rounders.

hockeyheaven · Post by **hockeyheaven** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 10:26 am

First were do you explain this? Second why do you suggest that Roseville will have a tougher 2nd round? Perhaps could it be that WBL or CDH may be a tougher foe then say HM or NSP, presenting more of a challenge thus in a sense being more deserving…huh
Freud would call your statement a slip. I my self sense some possible bias in your reasoning. Either way it provides a better argument to why WBL and not Hill should be the higher seed then the opinions of these so called “WBL booster”.

Bensonmum · Post by **Bensonmum** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:18 am

Sorry this was in the Suburban East thread and not this one:

We all probably agree that whoever wins the Roseville-Stillwater game on Feb 2 will be the #1 seed, and the loser #2. They'll also be 1 and 2 in the SubEast. HM is undefeated in the ClassicSub, and even though conference position technically is irrelevant, I'd think it'd be awful tough for the coaches to agree to place the 3rd place team from SubEast ahead of the undefeated 1st place team from the ClassicSub when that team has a better record by 2-3 games and has beaten that 3rd place team in a non-conference game.
Being a Roseville fan, I'd personally rather face HM right now since IMO WBL is the hottest team in the section.

I can't figure out if you're offended because you're a HM fan or WBL fan. Didn't mean to make you testy. I guess my point is that the seedings will go by record and by the entire season--meaning HM tops WBL. But right now IMO WBL is more dangerous than HM. And regardless of what CDH's season-long problems have been, their superstars make them extremely dangerous any time. HM has one win over a top team since Dec 1. They scheduled some very good teams, but lost to them all except BSM in the Schwans. (WBL was in November, which should count as far as seedings go but is really irrelevant as far as how a team is performing right now.)

hockeyheaven · Post by **hockeyheaven** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 12:45 pm

I’m sorry if it came off as if I was testy; it was not my intent at all. Just a friendly dispute about Seeding. This time of year always gets me fired up. I guess the debate we are having stems from where I think we differ. If I’m reading this right you feel that merit should be determined based the sum of the entire season with great emphasis placed on Conference record regardless of the Conference. A system that more closely follows a predetermined format and a set criterion. Where I feel that because the seeding is done by individuals (coaches) and they have the ability to employ reason and understand that the season really doesn’t start until December... and they can take in to account SOS... and how the SEC is hands down stronger then the CSC... and how they can also refer to polls and computer rankings…..
Then rationally determine who the stronger team is. Or something like that

Melvin44 · Post by **Melvin44** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:02 pm

I'm a WBL fan and I have no problem with HM getting the 3 seed as they did beat WBL and they also won their league 13-0. Is there and argument for WBL not getting the 3 seed? yes, (HM 1-0 over Richfield in their last game!!) Sorry I had to get at least one dig in to HM I mean WBL/Woodbury ok 2 digs. Kidding of course.

Cretin with 2 D1 senior D and G not to forget Keys? Will be trouble for any team and although unfortunate for WBL that's the way it goes.
If WBL can't beat CDH they probably can't beat RV, Stillwater or HM.

Good luck to all the teams and let's enjoy some great hockey!

Bensonmum · Post by **Bensonmum** » Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:15 pm

Hockeyheaven,
OK, we just disagree about how the seedings are (or should be) done. Which criteria should the coaches consider most strongly: record, conference strength, strength of schedule, position and record in conference, common opponents, head-to-head, poll rankings, etc. And then there's 'who do you feel is the better team right now'? This last one is a little too subjective for me and personally I'd give it less weight than 'the numbers', and you might not. That's cool too. I have no clue what directions the coaches are given when asked to rank the teams. The latest LPH rankings certainly strengthen your argument.

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Section 4AA 2007-8

Who will win Section 4AA 2007-8?

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