AA Rankings for 2/8

Older Topics, Not the current discussion

Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)

redfirehockey1
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Post by redfirehockey1 »

HShockeywatcher wrote:My bad Lee, I was thinking of the Blaine/Edina blowout.
Regardless, it is still a head to head victory.
are you sure it shouldn't be discreditted because it was a close game? i mean, jefferson versus morehead doesn't count, right? nor does jefferson vs EP. how about when they beat wayzata? too close of a game to matter. jefferson sucks. blaine beat east in a head to head game? what does that matter

oh my bad i just got done re-reading all of your posts in this thread and accidently went temporarily crazy by reading all of your horrible logic and judgements.
HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher »

Find a quote of me saying "jefferson sucks" or that any game doesn't matter. You won't. You'll find quotes of me saying just the opposite actually, just that who opponents are matter.

I posed this same question in the class A rankings thread; how does saying a team isn't #1 mean you are disrespecting them in some way?
power92
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Post by power92 »

redfirehockey1 wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:My bad Lee, I was thinking of the Blaine/Edina blowout.
Regardless, it is still a head to head victory.
are you sure it shouldn't be discreditted because it was a close game? i mean, jefferson versus morehead doesn't count, right? nor does jefferson vs EP. how about when they beat wayzata? too close of a game to matter. jefferson sucks. blaine beat east in a head to head game? what does that matter

oh my bad i just got done re-reading all of your posts in this thread and accidently went temporarily crazy by reading all of your horrible logic and judgements.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: You are new here right?
....Can't thank you enough for the time.
Papa Bergundy
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Post by Papa Bergundy »

Can we all just stop arguing with HShockeywatcher?

Obviously no one agrees with the guy.

Let it go.
Stay Classy, Minnesota.
scoreboard33
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Post by scoreboard33 »

HShockeywatcher wrote:"what i'm assuming is your alma meter (centennial) and #1 team"

Ha, you must be new. It's nice to see someone cannot post for a team and not have been from there. :shock:

scoreboard33,
I've given countless analogies to other places in sports, even other HS hockey examples, where logic is used to factor in SOS. I could give more, but you would simply say you don't care about those things, you are talking about this.

Jefferson has played three "top teams"...if you extend the top list. Two of them multiple teams have beaten considerably better than they have and the other, the one most are considering the only top team, someone else beat twice by the same margin.

We don't know what will happen tonight, but what if Eden Prairie beats Jefferson? What are people going to say then?

You may think ranking a team who hasn't played anyone low is ludicrous, but I would say that not factoring in SOS is ludicrous, which also means you need to factor that in when watching them play.

Can we please agree to disagree? I can do that if you can.
I will still argue and I think you enjoy the argument, otherwise you probably wouldn't post.

The thing I said was that I don't care about Park Rapids, a team that had played a ridiculously poor schedule rather than a slightly above average schedule to fairly strong schedule.

I didn't ask you to give an example of where SOS of schedule is used, I asked you to explain the fact that you are punishing Jefferson for not blowing of LS and LN, while putting Centennial number one, even though they lost. That seems like the punishment doesn't fit the crime. You have yet to justify that.

The other thing I you have yet to justify is that the Lake Conference, while they are missing the top teams has a ton of average to above average teams, which, when they start to beat up on each other, drive the overall strength of schedule down. This has happened in the BCS many times and explains why the SEC, while being the top conference in the nation(some may argue that, but that is not the point) loses SOS points until you adjust for human voters and the rankings they give.

I think that if you watch a team, you can judge their level of play based on the things they do while even when the opponent is poor, you just have to understand that they may not get away with all the things they did in the game. Mistakes get magnified in big games, but they don't go away in small games.

If EP beats Jefferson, which they have a very good chance of, I would probably say that you need to drop Jefferson in the rankings. As we get more information, we need to re-evaluate teams.

Also, the PS2 rankings use SOS and margin of victory to rank the teams, and has Jefferson number 2, but you seem to ignore the good points about Jefferson and only harp on their SOS, which in all honesty is pretty close to MG and ER's and you rank them 6 and 9 with numerous losses. The strength of schedule is from Mitch's rankings linked from Lee's on PS2.
MrBoDangles
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Post by MrBoDangles »

I agree with HShockeywatcher on the point that Jefferson would (possibly) not have the record they do with a tougher schedule. I also agree on the point of Edina losing 3 and barely moving down, then a NWSC team losing 1 to a very good team and falling off the map a little puzzling. :shock: ----- karl(lake)???????? :wink:
Last edited by MrBoDangles on Tue Feb 10, 2009 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher »

1. I was putting together rankings based on game results, emphasizing recent ones, not how I think the teams would do. Centennial has been hot has of late and one game doesn't define a season.
If I were to organize my rankings based on how I think teams would do using much more personal bias Edina would be #1, as I believe that despite their losses they are all around the most talented team.

2. I will give a more personal response as to my opinion on watching Jefferson. I've seen many St Thomas games. Until this year it was Hill at the top, St Thomas 2nd, Tartan jumping around, a big middle and Sibley at the bottom. You could go watch a STA/Mahtomedi game (for example) as I did many times, and come away thinking STA was God's gift to hockey. Then when you went and saw them play against Hill, you realized they were simply a good team among many top teams.
I am not denying that Jefferson is good, I just don't think you can justify giving them the top seed off watching them play mediocre competition and seeing their skills.

3. Your point about being in the Lake and comparing it to the SEC is a good one. It is the reason that aside from EP in football and Blooming Jefferson in basketball, most teams don't have the greatest records in the lake despite all being good teams. It's the reason that until this year the Missota had been sending 3-4 football teams to state yearly with many of them being just over .500 on the regular season. Hockey, like so many like to discuss, though, is different.

4. SOS
a. The SOS rankings that Mitch, Lee and anyone else do are great and probably the best when using a computer system. This is where the SOS of a team in the Lake Conference gets "unfairly" elevated. Everyone in the Lake conference is a middle of the rung team, generally, plus a few that are better. So every Lake conference team (if playing a full Lake schedule) will have a above average AA schedule to start with every year. Then when you throw a couple better than average teams on their schedule it becomes much higher. This is the same reason Lee made a comment about Central bringing East's SOS way down.
b. When I refer to strength of schedule, I refer to the number of top teams they play compared to mediocre and poor teams. I don't need to go into everything, but Jefferson plays 21 poor to mediocre games, 2 games against different mediocre-ish teams, and 2 games against the same top team. Compare that to many of the other teams on the top ten list and it just doesn't add up.
c. It confuses me every year to see Holy Angels so high on the list every year.

5. While we can all agree that winning is important ultimately, the regular season is used to prepare yourself for the post season. In many sports coaches all over use all of the regular season as training and the post season is all that matters.
It isn't exactly the apples to apples, but it isn't apples to oranges either; in track or cross country most coaches would probably prefer their athletes spend the season running against top competition, and losing their races despite by how much, as long as they were being pushed and improving over racing against sub par competition and winning easily most of the time and only having to try a few times. The athletes on the first team will be much better prepared.

6. Yes, I do like discussing these things. If that is all we are doing, great. I don't enjoy being attacked for having a difference of opinion, one that many do actually agree with.
King of the Pond
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Post by King of the Pond »

My rankings

1. Jefferson
2. EP
3. Centennial
4. Minnetonka
5. Edina
6. Blaine
7. DE
8. MG
9. Holy Angels
10. Woodbury
karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) »

MrBoDangles wrote:I agree with HShockeywatcher on the point that Jefferson would (possibly) not have the record they do with a tougher schedule. I also agree on the point of Edina losing 3 and barely moving down, then a NWSC team losing 1 to a very good team and falling off the map a little puzzling. :shock: ----- karl(lake)???????? :wink:
I know it looks a little strange, and it was awkward doing it.

To this, I will say that teams with harder schedules are much more insulated from drastic movement on the rankings. We have a pretty good idea of where they belong. It's harder to tell with teams with weaker schedules, which is why some people on here put Jefferson first and others put them down around 7th.

These rankings came out immediately after Blaine and Centennial lost, and the NWSC was thrown into confusion, as Maple Grove (and, to a lesser degree, Elk River) jumped into the picture. We have no reason to believe any of these three teams can't win the conference or the section. To reflect this confusion, I felt they had to be grouped together, immediately. So I could either put all three in the 3-6 range, or into the 7-9 range. I chose the latter because:
1. Centennial and Blaine were already in the 3-6 range and the rankings needed to reflect their recent losses.
2. Edina and Minnetonka have established where they belong pretty well. They've come out looking usually very good against a very hard schedule, and you would be hard-pressed to find someone who doesn't consider these teams deserving of top-6 spots. With the NWSC teams, on the other hand, we're reasonably certain that one, maybe two of them, will not end up being top-6 teams. But at least one, maybe two, will be by the time they have finished sorting themselves out over the next week or so.

The teams that made this really awkward were East, Holy Angels, and most especially, Benilde. I can elaborate on that process if you'd like me to.

And in response to HShockeywatcher's note about Holy Angels' schedule strength seeming higher than it should be, that has to do with the games they play against outstate competition and Shattuck. It's really impossible to measure how much playing teams like Culver and Mt. St. Charles should affect their rankings, since they play no other MN competition. I'm guessing (people who do SOS, correct me if I'm wrong), some number is assigned to these teams that may be (in my opinion) a bit too high.
Indians forever
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Post by Indians forever »

Papa Bergundy wrote:Can we all just stop arguing with HShockeywatcher?

Obviously no one agrees with the guy.

Let it go.
I agree with HShockeywatcher!! :shock: :shock:
elliott70
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Re: AA Rankings for 2/8

Post by elliott70 »

1. Bloomington Jefferson

2. Edina

3. Eden Prairie

4. Centennial

5. Duluth East

6. Minnetonka

7. Blaine

8. Elk River

9. Moorhead


10. Maple Grove

11. Benilde-St. Maragaret's

12. Holy Angels

13. Wayzata

14. Roseau

15. Burnsville
elliott70
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Post by elliott70 »

Indians forever wrote:
Papa Bergundy wrote:Can we all just stop arguing with HShockeywatcher?

Obviously no one agrees with the guy.

Let it go.
I agree with HShockeywatcher!! :shock: :shock:
Me too, some of the time, occasionally.
redfirehockey1
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Post by redfirehockey1 »

Indians forever wrote:
Papa Bergundy wrote:Can we all just stop arguing with HShockeywatcher?

Obviously no one agrees with the guy.

Let it go.
I agree with HShockeywatcher!! :shock: :shock:
you think jefferson's not top 5 in the state?
HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher »

I never said the aren't top 5 in the state. I said they have PROVEN it. Which is why we have playoffs.

And even if they disagree on that point doesn't all of a sudden discredit all opinions I have.
HSHockeyFan08
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Post by HSHockeyFan08 »

1. Bloomington Jefferson - Undefeated. Nothing else to say. Very talented.
2. Edina - Extremely talented. They have the talent to win it all. They need to get through Jefferson and Holy Angels. Everson, Lee, Gaarder, and Taft all need to put up big numbers to get out of their tough section. Could easily lose to Jefferson or Holy Angels.
3. Eden Prarie - EP is fortunate to have the best defenseman in the state. They have all the tools to make a run.
4. Minnetonka - Good goaltending and defensemen, and have a few forwards that can go such as Coatta (28 pts) and Gardiner (36 pts).
5. Duluth East - Best defensive core out there. Forbert (13 pts) may be the best Junior defensmen in the state. Tardy (40 pts) is another forward to watch. He knows what he needs to do for his team to win.
6. Centennial - Pitlick, Lovick, and Hess need to play extremely well in order for this team to win 5AA. Pitlick is the anchor of this team posting 50 points thus far, and needs to step up as a leader on and off the ice. Larsen needs to play consistent in order for this team to have a shot.
7. Blaine - Harper needs to come up big for them to beat the Cougars and Crimson. Bjgustad (39pts) is the best player in the NWSC. (next to Pitlick) He needs to lead this team to a state birth.
8. Maple Grove - An extremely fast team. Led by Gross (43 pts) and Cossette. Cossette may be one of the most underated defensemen in the state. +44 on the season.
9. Benilde St. Margarets - Has one of the better coaches in the state. Borer (19 pts, +20) is an extremely talented defensmen. Nebraska-Omaha got a snag with this kid. They are getting production out of younger players such as Horn (29 pts) and Steinhauser (18 pts). Meyers is a very talented goaltender. Decent shot at state, but have to get through EP, Hopkins, Tonka, or Wayzata. 6AA will be interesting.
10. Holy Angels - Unfortunately this team is put into a very tough section. I would like to see them in 3AA in the future. Danny Mattson (55 pts) has led this team throughout the season. All of the Reily's are very fun to watch.

On the bubble:

Hopins, Woodbury, Roseau
hockeyjunkie2
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Post by hockeyjunkie2 »

Well here is what I did. I took 5 rankings polls I found to make a top 20. These are how the final rankings came out. The number next to the team indicates how many points they had. Ex. If a team was ranked 5th in a poll it's 5 points, lowest number was key. All the teams in the top 20 I was able to find a ranking number even if it was outside of top 20. Others listed on the bottom appeared in some or where ranked highly in many but just short.

1. Jefferson- 7
2. Edina- 13
3. EP- 14
4. Centennial- 20
5. Tonka- 30
5. Blaine- 30
7. East- 31
8. AHA- 46
9. MG- 49
10. HM- 52
11. Wayzata- 53
12. BSM- 57
13. Wodbury- 65
14. WBL- 80
14. Moorhead- 80
14. Elk River- 80
17. Burnsville- 82
18. Hopkins- 88
19. CDH- 90
20. Eagan- 92

Others:
AV- 18,21,23, missing LPH and FTP
Roseau- 20.20.24,24, missing LPH
Roseville- 20,22,28,27 missing LPH
Tartan- 22,23,23, missing LPH and geocities
Grand Rapids- 21,25,24, missing LPH and FTP
HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher »

Seems we have a new #1 team in section 2AA.

I think I can now satisfy others with my putting EP ahead of BJ, right? 8)
rinkrat555
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Post by rinkrat555 »

ep is in section 6aa, i think, jeff in 2aa ..... u may be talking lake conference?
MrBoDangles
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Post by MrBoDangles »

#1 Centennial that beat Edina 3-1 recently in Edina, the same Edina that beat Eden Prarie twice. I'm sorry karl(east), ranking Centennial #8 among other things are not explainable. Do you think losses to Maple Grove and Hopkins are the same? Do you think a thrashing from Minnetonka and a tie with Moorhead are the same? Hard and difficult are not the answers, (NWSC) lack of respect is.
karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) »

MrBoDangles wrote:#1 Centennial that beat Edina 3-1 recently in Edina, the same Edina that beat Eden Prarie twice. I'm sorry karl(east), ranking Centennial #8 among other things are not explainable. Do you think losses to Maple Grove and Hopkins are the same? Do you think a thrashing from Minnetonka and a tie with Moorhead are the same? Hard and difficult are not the answers, (NWSC) lack of respect is.
Oh, I've been exposed. My sole goal in life is to trash the NWSC, and now everyone knows. Woe is me. :roll:

Apparently I am not allowed to explain myself, but I will try again anyways.

Yes, neither Edina nor Centennial has played well lately. No one is denying that. But...Edina had a bounce-back game. They crushed a good Wayzata team 7-0. I saw Edina play 3 times in the stretch of 4 games immediately surrounding the Centennial effort (Hopkins, Robbinsdale Armstrong, Minnetonka), and they looked nothing like the team I saw earlier in the year. It was quite obvious they were not playing up to their potential, and, with the Wayzata win, appear to have found their stride again. If it turns out to be a fluke, they'll drop behind all 3 NWSC teams next week (assuming they don't also get upset this week).

As for Centennial, they have struggled in 2 recent games and, unlike Edina, have not rebounded from that yet. Coupling that with the fact that the only real big achievement on their resume is beating Edina, I had no qualms dropping them to the 8-slot. A lot of people seem to think that alone shows that they belong in the top 2, and I strongly disagree with that. They've proven in games that they're about even with Blaine and Duluth East, and just got embarrassed by one of the teams they need to go through to get to state. If they're just having a bad stretch, they will prove it this week and get back up to where they belong next week.

But this is the way the rankings fall this week.
MrBoDangles
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Post by MrBoDangles »

:shock:
HappyHockeyFan
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Rankings

Post by HappyHockeyFan »

Here are my rankings, you can all chew on this one for awhile


#1 Edina
#2 Centennial
#3 Maple Grove
#4 Eden Prairie
#5 Jefferson
#6 Holy Angels
#7 Blaine
#8 Duluth East
#9 Woodbury
#10 Benilde SM

#11 Minnetonka
#12 Wayzata
#13 Hillmurray
It's not the Best players, it's the Right players! HB
Roseauverrated
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Re: Rankings

Post by Roseauverrated »

HappyHockeyFan wrote:Here are my rankings, you can all chew on this one for awhile


#1 Edina
#2 Centennial
#3 Maple Grove
#4 Eden Prairie
#5 Jefferson
#6 Holy Angels
#7 Blaine
#8 Duluth East
#9 Woodbury
#10 Benilde SM

#11 Minnetonka
#12 Wayzata
#13 Hillmurray
Could you please explain why you have Minnetonka at #11 and Maple Grove at #3? Otherwise I mostly agree with your rankings except I might move around a few teams 1 or 2 places. I also believe Woodbury doesn't deserve to even be ranked.
The New One
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Woodbury

Post by The New One »

Why do you think Woodbury shouldnt be rated arnt they like 17-4
Roseauverrated
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Post by Roseauverrated »

They're actually 18-2-2. However, if you take a look at their schedule, they literally have not beaten ANYONE in the top 20. To me, in order to be ranked in the top 20, you should atleast have a couple wins against other ranked teams. Woodbury has not proven anything except that they can beat terrible teams.
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