Scores (sorted by team) through March 8, 2008 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below * - Indicates team rating based on only two scores RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St Thomas,_________________________ 19 6 2, 2.1, 8.4, 10.49, 11.45 2,St Norbert,________________________ 24 1 4, 2.4, 8.1, 10.48, 10.18 3,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 23 4 0, 2.6, 7.7, 10.28, 9.51 4,Elmira,____________________________ 19 3 5, 2.0, 8.0, 9.91, 10.35 5,Adrian,____________________________ 26 3 0, 4.1, 5.8, 9.90, 9.45 6,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 18 8 3, 1.6, 8.2, 9.84, 10.82 7,Oswego,____________________________ 18 6 2, 2.1, 7.7, 9.83, 10.40 8,Manhattanville,____________________ 18 6 3, 1.9, 7.9, 9.83, 9.60 9,Norwich,___________________________ 21 6 0, 2.3, 7.3, 9.63, 8.76 10,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 16 7 4, 1.3, 8.3, 9.61, 9.27 11,Hobart,____________________________ 18 7 2, 1.6, 7.8, 9.36, 10.13 12,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 13 12 1, 0.9, 8.5, 9.34, 9.56 13,St John's,_________________________ 13 12 2, 0.7, 8.6, 9.28, 8.73 14,Neumann,___________________________ 17 9 0, 1.3, 8.0, 9.27, 8.25 15,Wis-Superior,______________________ 13 6 8, 0.8, 8.3, 9.15, 9.29 16,Hamline,___________________________ 16 7 4, 1.1, 8.0, 9.11, 9.87 17,Bowdoin,___________________________ 17 7 0, 1.9, 7.1, 8.94, 9.30 18,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 14 9 4, 0.6, 8.3, 8.84, 6.56 19,Bethel,____________________________ 16 7 2, 0.8, 8.0, 8.82, 8.16 20,Middlebury,________________________ 18 6 2, 1.2, 7.4, 8.61, 9.22 21,Utica,_____________________________ 15 10 1, 0.9, 7.7, 8.61, 9.08 22,St Scholastica,____________________ 10 13 5, -0.1, 8.7, 8.61, 9.84 23,Babson,____________________________ 18 6 3, 1.4, 7.2, 8.54, 8.79 24,Fredonia,__________________________ 15 9 3, 0.6, 7.8, 8.38, 8.77 25,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 11 16 1, -0.3, 8.7, 8.33, 8.72 26,New England College,_______________ 16 7 3, 1.4, 6.8, 8.20, 8.32 27,Colby,_____________________________ 15 9 1, 1.0, 7.2, 8.18, 9.05 28,St Olaf,___________________________ 9 12 4, -0.1, 8.2, 8.16, 8.93 29,Amherst,___________________________ 14 9 3, 0.7, 7.4, 8.08, 8.43 30,St Mary's,_________________________ 9 14 2, -0.4, 8.4, 7.99, 7.37 31,Castleton,_________________________ 13 11 2, 0.7, 7.1, 7.80, 9.34 32,Salem State,_______________________ 16 10 1, 0.9, 6.5, 7.45, 9.02 33,Marian,____________________________ 17 10 1, 0.8, 6.5, 7.33, 6.43 34,Southern Maine,____________________ 14 9 3, 0.5, 6.8, 7.32, 5.69 35,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 12 4, -0.2, 7.4, 7.25, 7.62 36,Trinity,___________________________ 14 10 2, 0.0, 7.2, 7.23, 7.29 37,Conn College,______________________ 9 13 3, -0.1, 7.3, 7.19, 9.14 38,Finlandia,_________________________ 18 9 2, 1.2, 6.0, 7.15, 7.76 39,Curry,_____________________________ 16 10 1, 1.3, 5.9, 7.11, 6.19 40,Geneseo,___________________________ 8 17 0, -0.9, 8.0, 7.08, 6.34 41,Augsburg,__________________________ 6 17 2, -1.5, 8.5, 7.01, 7.63 42,Brockport,_________________________ 7 15 3, -0.4, 7.4, 6.96, 5.54 43,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 18 8 1, 1.8, 5.1, 6.87, 7.29 44,Potsdam,___________________________ 10 14 4, -1.1, 7.9, 6.83, 8.86 45,Cortland,__________________________ 11 12 3, -0.4, 7.1, 6.69, 5.47 46,Milw School of Eng,________________ 15 13 0, 0.0, 6.6, 6.67, 7.19 47,St Anselm,_________________________ 7 10 3, -0.5, 7.1, 6.60, 7.65 48,Williams,__________________________ 9 12 4, -0.9, 7.5, 6.55, 4.72 49,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 11 14 2, -0.5, 6.8, 6.32, 8.45 50,Hamilton,__________________________ 6 18 1, -1.4, 7.5, 6.08, 7.03 51,Nichols,___________________________ 20 7 1, 1.5, 4.6, 6.08, 6.27 52,Wesleyan,__________________________ 7 13 3, -1.4, 7.4, 6.00, 4.74 53,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 23 1, -2.9, 8.7, 5.82, 4.78 54,Lawrence,__________________________ 10 14 3, -0.6, 6.2, 5.69, 6.22 55,Skidmore,__________________________ 7 17 2, -1.7, 7.2, 5.58, 4.78 56,Fitchburg State,___________________ 13 10 4, 1.0, 4.6, 5.52, 5.70 57,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 20 0, -1.7, 7.2, 5.45, 5.37 58,St Michael's,______________________ 6 13 1, -1.7, 7.1, 5.40, 3.61 59,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 17 1, -2.1, 7.4, 5.27, 2.92 60,Wentworth,_________________________ 11 14 1, -0.5, 5.5, 5.08, 6.87 61,Concordia MN,______________________ 1 23 1, -3.5, 8.5, 4.97, 4.65 62,Plymouth State,____________________ 10 12 3, 0.1, 4.9, 4.96, 3.66 63,Suffolk,___________________________ 13 14 0, 0.1, 4.4, 4.58, 5.53 64,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 8 17 0, -0.4, 5.0, 4.53, 5.30 65,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 6 20 0, -2.0, 6.4, 4.33, 4.74 66,Salve Regina,______________________ 10 10 4, -0.5, 4.8, 4.24, 4.43 67,Stonehill,_________________________ 7 7 2, -0.4, 4.6, 4.20, 4.62 68,Becker,____________________________ 12 12 2, -0.6, 4.7, 4.09, 3.57 69,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 1 23 1, -4.2, 8.1, 3.92, 2.79 70,Northland,_________________________ 4 23 0, -3.3, 6.8, 3.45, 3.53 71,So New Hampshire,__________________ 6 10 1, -1.3, 4.7, 3.40, 0.68 72,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 4 12 0, -1.0, 4.3, 3.33, 3.21 73,Concordia WI,______________________ 2 25 0, -4.3, 7.5, 3.14, 3.59 74,Western NE College,________________ 6 17 2, -1.9, 4.8, 2.93, 2.14 75,Assumption,________________________ 6 12 0, -1.8, 4.5, 2.69, 3.18 76,Framingham State,__________________ 1 23 1, -3.2, 4.9, 1.74, 2.43 77,Worcester State,___________________ 2 22 0, -4.2, 4.8, 0.64, 0.68 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St Norbert,________________________ 24 1 4, 0.8, 7.2, 7.96, 7.93 2,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 23 4 0, 0.7, 7.1, 7.83, 7.66 3,Elmira,____________________________ 19 3 5, 0.6, 7.2, 7.82, 7.65 4,Norwich,___________________________ 21 6 0, 0.6, 7.2, 7.72, 7.35 5,Manhattanville,____________________ 18 6 3, 0.4, 7.3, 7.69, 7.83 6,St Thomas,_________________________ 19 6 2, 0.5, 7.2, 7.69, 7.82 7,Middlebury,________________________ 18 6 2, 0.5, 7.2, 7.63, 7.70 8,Hobart,____________________________ 18 7 2, 0.4, 7.2, 7.62, 8.08 9,Oswego,____________________________ 18 6 2, 0.5, 7.1, 7.60, 7.90 10,Adrian,____________________________ 26 3 0, 0.8, 6.8, 7.60, 7.59 11,Wis-Stout,_________________________ 18 8 3, 0.3, 7.2, 7.57, 7.70 12,Wis-River Falls,___________________ 16 7 4, 0.3, 7.2, 7.56, 7.33 13,Neumann,___________________________ 17 9 0, 0.3, 7.3, 7.56, 7.36 14,Babson,____________________________ 18 6 3, 0.4, 7.1, 7.55, 7.67 15,Bowdoin,___________________________ 17 7 0, 0.4, 7.1, 7.53, 7.40 16,Wis-Superior,______________________ 13 6 8, 0.3, 7.2, 7.50, 7.41 17,Bethel,____________________________ 16 7 2, 0.4, 7.1, 7.47, 7.38 18,Hamline,___________________________ 16 7 4, 0.3, 7.1, 7.45, 7.88 19,Wis-Stevens Point,_________________ 14 9 4, 0.2, 7.2, 7.41, 6.60 20,Utica,_____________________________ 15 10 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.39, 7.34 21,Colby,_____________________________ 15 9 1, 0.2, 7.1, 7.39, 7.73 22,New England College,_______________ 16 7 3, 0.3, 7.0, 7.38, 7.44 23,Amherst,___________________________ 14 9 3, 0.2, 7.2, 7.38, 7.54 24,Fredonia,__________________________ 15 9 3, 0.2, 7.1, 7.36, 7.43 25,St John's,_________________________ 13 12 2, 0.0, 7.3, 7.30, 7.00 26,Trinity,___________________________ 14 10 2, 0.2, 7.1, 7.29, 7.47 27,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 13 12 1, 0.0, 7.2, 7.27, 7.12 28,St Scholastica,____________________ 10 13 5, -0.1, 7.4, 7.25, 7.55 29,Southern Maine,____________________ 14 9 3, 0.2, 7.0, 7.22, 6.48 30,Salem State,_______________________ 16 10 1, 0.2, 7.0, 7.19, 7.72 31,Castleton,_________________________ 13 11 2, 0.1, 7.1, 7.17, 7.78 32,Marian,____________________________ 17 10 1, 0.3, 6.9, 7.17, 6.98 33,Wis-Eau Claire,____________________ 11 16 1, -0.2, 7.3, 7.14, 7.44 34,Finlandia,_________________________ 18 9 2, 0.3, 6.8, 7.10, 7.41 35,Williams,__________________________ 9 12 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.08, 6.84 36,St Olaf,___________________________ 9 12 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.08, 7.27 37,Potsdam,___________________________ 10 14 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.03, 7.45 38,Milw School of Eng,________________ 15 13 0, 0.1, 7.0, 7.03, 7.27 39,St Mary's,_________________________ 9 14 2, -0.2, 7.2, 7.02, 7.09 40,Conn College,______________________ 9 13 3, -0.2, 7.2, 7.00, 7.45 41,Buffalo State,_____________________ 10 12 4, -0.1, 7.1, 6.99, 6.86 42,Curry,_____________________________ 16 10 1, 0.2, 6.7, 6.96, 6.74 43,Cortland,__________________________ 11 12 3, -0.0, 7.0, 6.95, 6.77 44,St Anselm,_________________________ 7 10 3, -0.2, 7.1, 6.94, 7.69 45,Wesleyan,__________________________ 7 13 3, -0.3, 7.2, 6.92, 6.24 46,Mass-Boston,_______________________ 11 14 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.91, 7.52 47,Mass-Dartmouth,____________________ 18 8 1, 0.4, 6.5, 6.91, 7.57 48,Nichols,___________________________ 20 7 1, 0.5, 6.4, 6.87, 6.73 49,Geneseo,___________________________ 8 17 0, -0.4, 7.2, 6.86, 6.79 50,Augsburg,__________________________ 6 17 2, -0.4, 7.2, 6.80, 6.86 51,St Michael's,______________________ 6 13 1, -0.4, 7.1, 6.77, 6.58 52,Brockport,_________________________ 7 15 3, -0.3, 7.1, 6.76, 6.66 53,Skidmore,__________________________ 7 17 2, -0.4, 7.1, 6.75, 6.69 54,Hamilton,__________________________ 6 18 1, -0.5, 7.2, 6.73, 7.08 55,Lawrence,__________________________ 10 14 3, -0.1, 6.9, 6.72, 6.71 56,Tufts,_____________________________ 6 17 1, -0.5, 7.2, 6.71, 6.16 57,Lake Forest,_______________________ 3 23 1, -0.7, 7.4, 6.61, 6.80 58,Wentworth,_________________________ 11 14 1, -0.1, 6.7, 6.54, 6.35 59,Fitchburg State,___________________ 13 10 4, 0.1, 6.4, 6.54, 6.52 60,Salve Regina,______________________ 10 10 4, 0.0, 6.5, 6.45, 6.70 61,Becker,____________________________ 12 12 2, 0.0, 6.4, 6.45, 6.65 62,Plymouth State,____________________ 10 12 3, -0.1, 6.5, 6.42, 6.16 63,Stonehill,_________________________ 7 7 2, 0.0, 6.4, 6.41, 6.36 64,Morrisville,_______________________ 5 20 0, -0.6, 7.0, 6.41, 6.49 65,Lebanon Valley,____________________ 1 23 1, -0.9, 7.3, 6.38, 6.41 66,Minn-Crookston,____________________ 6 20 0, -0.5, 6.9, 6.37, 6.20 67,Suffolk,___________________________ 13 14 0, -0.0, 6.4, 6.37, 6.80 68,Concordia MN,______________________ 1 23 1, -0.9, 7.2, 6.36, 6.19 69,Northland,_________________________ 4 23 0, -0.7, 7.0, 6.27, 6.13 70,Concordia WI,______________________ 2 25 0, -0.9, 7.1, 6.27, 6.52 71,So New Hampshire,__________________ 6 10 1, -0.2, 6.4, 6.18, 5.78 72,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 8 17 0, -0.4, 6.5, 6.14, 6.40 73,Assumption,________________________ 6 12 0, -0.3, 6.4, 6.04, 6.22 74,Western NE College,________________ 6 17 2, -0.4, 6.5, 6.03, 5.71 75,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 4 12 0, -0.5, 6.4, 5.86, 5.87 76,Framingham State,__________________ 1 23 1, -0.9, 6.5, 5.63, 5.55 77,Worcester State,___________________ 2 22 0, -0.8, 6.4, 5.60, 5.41 Link to the 2005-2006 Final D1 Rankings . The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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