Twins 34-34 on 6/18

[larsey]

It just kills me that there is only "1" national league team with a better record that our mighty "TWINS" Is the competion more evenly distrubited in the NL? Or, do they not have as many talented teams as the AL? Are the divisions more difficult? Are the rivalries bigger? I don't claim to be a baseball buff but, I do enjoy watching the great american past time every now and then and if anyone can explain it to me I'd appreciate it.

[Irishmans Shanty]

From the nuggets in the Trib yesterday it looks as if Matt Guerrier is being stretched out to fill the 5th starter's role. A 5th starter would only need to make 10 more starts if they choose to skip him with the off days that loom. Radke's shoulder is a time bomb, Baker is just not there yet, Silva's lack of a consistant sinker, and Lohse is in the doghouse, all things point to Guerrier getting some important starts down the stretch.

Pat Neshek and his quirky delivery have opened the door for Guerrier to move into the rotation. Neshek can get outs and I look for his role to expand over the next few weeks. Neshek's delivery and Minnesota roots could make him a folk hero for years to come if this team keeps winning.

Neshek's arrival and Guerrier's return only sends Lohse deeper into the pen. The Twins are in a great position with Lohse as the trade deadline closes in because they don't HAVE to move him. Unlike a ticket for the superbowl, where the value drops as the kickoff approaches, the opposite is true for Lohse's value. Lohse's value will go up each day and the Twins will fleece a team that is desperate for a big league, healthy, experienced arm. The Twins hold all cards in a deal because they can walk away from the table without hurting their own team's chances.

[ChrisK]

Right now, the Twins have two Cy Young candidates at the top of the rotation, Radke who's been solid after a horrendous start and a lot of question marks. I can't say I'm excited about the prospect of Guerrier, who is actually still on the DL with a broken thumb, as the fifth starter, his ERA is OK, but he's got a high WHIP and opponents are batting .310 against him.

It looks like White has turned it around and Punto has been solid in the no.2 spot so some of the holes in the batting order might be filling in though I'll reserve judgment till after this road trip but as Shanty pointed out Radke's shoulder is a concern so the rotation could use some attention. It seems like Greg Maddux might be a good fit, depending on his contract situation, he made $9m last year and I don't know what he's making this year. He's not the pitcher he was he's like a better version of Radke at this point, but he would provide insurance if Radke goes down. Other pitchers that might be available include Jake Westbrook (highly unlikely the Indians would trade with a division rival), Rodrigo Lopez (terrible numbers this year), Dontrelle Willis (doesn't look like the Marlins want to move him but I'd pick him up in a heartbeat) and Miguel Batista (mediocre numbers, but might be worth a shot).

[packerboy]

Larsey, I dont know that much about the NL because we dont see them, but I dont know of a team over there right now that I would take over the Twins..maybe St Louis. I was very unimpressed with the NL teams the Twins played this year.

But whether its AL or NL, there arent a lot of good teams. We whine about the holes in the Twins lineup but its actually pretty solid right now compared to most teams. Is the Tiger lineup better than the Twins?

4 back of the Sox for the WC. If they come off of this road trip 4 or 5 back, it will be good. I know the Yankees are ahead of the Twins too but only by a couple. Lets win the series vs Cleveland.

[ChrisK]

The Tigers don't have players as good as Mauer or Morneau in their lineup, but they're deeper. They've got 7 players with 10+ homers, the Twins have three. As a team the Tigers have scored 24 more runs than the Twins and hit 37 more homers, but the Twins have the higher team batting average, .282 to .274. The starting rotations are the same way, the Tigers good young pitchers aren't really up to Santana or Liriano's level (few are) but they're got four starters with ERAs under 4.00 and a lower team ERA. So the teams are pretty even and if the Twins pick up a slugger or another starter to add some depth it might be enough to propel them into the playoffs.

[larsey]

Sure, the Tigers have a bit more power but I don't think that is what puts them on the top of the division. They have been consistant all year with pulling out the tight ones and winning on the road. With the talent the Twins have with the bat and pitchers like Santana & Liriano, they should have a much better road record. percentagewise, the Twins have played better ball in the last couple months than both the Sox AND the Tigers. If it wasn't for the HORRIBLE start (stretch) they would be right up there on top even with the bad on road record. So, Packerboy be right, let's get some road wins!!

We also NEED to get even with the Tigers...if ya know what I mean!!!

[packerboy]

After a certain ability level it comes down to timing.

Those 2 out hits WRISP; a 3 run dinger when the team is down 2; the key strikeout with a runner on 3rd and 1 down, .....all that stuff can allow a team with relatively average stats to win a lot of games.

Thats the Tigers this season. You go up and down their order and there really is no one hitter that you can look at his stats and say " dont let him beat us"

No Pujlos nor Ortiz type.... no Morneau or Mauer as ChrisK points out.

The Twins seem to be getting that kind of timing.

[ChrisK]

It seems like that was the White Sox last year too, getting the key hits and strikeouts to pull out close games.

The Twins have been getting that timing at home, it's time for them to pull out those hits and K's on the road.

[Irishmans Shanty]

Finally, a pounding of the Tribe in their own park. Hallaluah, ding dong the witch is dead. The Tribe have folded their tents and have headed for their winter hunting grounds.

Now for the bad news. The Twins need to get another starter, and I don't believe they will find him in house like they did with a certain left fielder this week. Check that, maybe THE TWINS don't need another starter, but I do. After the two lefties, I break out into hives thinking about the rest of the staff. Silva was given an 8 run 4th and he won't have a W next to his name in the boxscore tommorow. If that isn't making alarms go off in Terry Ryan's office, then I don't know what will. The Twins, White Sox, Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays could all be in an interesting game of musical chairs. Do you want to put your playoff hopes in the arms of Silva, Baker, and the doctor that gave Radke his cortisone shot? Neither do I.

What do you give up to get a starter? The Twins are long in the bullpen with 7th/8th inning righties. Crain, Rincon, and the phenom, Neshek are a three headed monster, one can go. Rincon is my choice, not because they don't need him, but because he would bring the most in return. Call the Cubs and see what Maddux will cost for 2 months. How about the Giants, maybe they'll take Boof back for Jason Schmidt even up.

Anyone who saw Hafner and Michaels bat against Neshek in the 9th can see that hitters aren't comfortable with him. On the mound, Neshek has all the mannerisms of a great reliever. Neshek is itchy and twichy and jittery and sweaty and nervous, he breathes like he is in labor, his delivery is as if he was raised in Seoul and his fastball bends like a Zidane free kick.

[EREmpireStrikesBack]

his fastball bends like a Zidane free kick.

Beckham.

It would be he plants batters like a Zidane headbutt.

[Irishmans Shanty]

I know they made a movie titled "Bend It Like Beckham", but when it comes to talk on the pitch, he's crap. If Zidane married a Spice Girl and wasn't balding, nobody would have cared about the head butt.

[EREmpireStrikesBack]

Yes, on the pitch Beckham is crap. But on spot kicks, he is the best there is. Nobody can come close to bending it and moving it and putting it in places like he can. Zidane is a better overall player, but can't come close to Beckham on kicks.

[Irishmans Shanty]

Maybe this a Pohl vs. Spehar thing. You can't go wrong with either. For me it's still Zidane. The goal in the 57th minute against Brazil in the knockout round is all Zidane's magic, his feed to Thierry was as good as it gets. I'm smelling a footy thread coming from the kitchen of the Cafe.

[jimjackjohnmmmm]

Liriano for cy young, nuff said.

[larsey]

I'll second that!

[ChrisK]

Take that footy talk elsewhere guys, this is a baseball thread!

Shanty, I agree completely with you on the Twins starters, the no.4 and 5 spots have been shaky at best. The thing that makes me really nervous is the status of Radke's shoulder, if he goes down Silva becomes the no.3 starter. According to the Strib, the talk is that they might promote Matt Garza but after watching Bonser and Baker struggle I'd feel a lot more comfortable with a veteran pitcher out there.

[packerboy]

All right. They won the Cleveland series and are 3 back of the Sox.

Win the series vs the Sox and Ozzie will have a lot more to worry about than whether his pitchers are throwing at the other team enough.

I dont like the bottom of the rotation any more than you guys but its pretty typical....even on the good teams.

Id like to see a veteran pitcher and Carlos Lee or Soriano here. How does that happen?

[Irishmans Shanty]

If we like Soriano and Lee, so does Terry Ryan. I think the problem the Twins would have in a deal with the Nats or Brewers is they do not have a healthy, proven major league ready outfielder under contract to give back to the Nats or Brewers to fill the vacancy of a Soriano or Lee. To get Soriano or Lee I believe the Twins would need to dangle a younger Hunter or Stewart who would have a couple years left on a deal and their top 2 prospects. The Twins could do the prospects but they can't turn the clock back on Hunter or Stewart.

[packerboy]

Lets be more specific.

Would we trade Kubel and Garza to get either of those? Would that do it?

[Irishmans Shanty]

Yes, I make that deal and I don't criticize it later. Kubel had a nice couple weeks, but he could still end up being another Bobby Kielty. Garza could potentially be another Durbin. To get Lee and only have to part with a platoon OF and a career Minor Leaguer would be a heck of a trade. In fact let's pull the trigger on this now, It would be nice to see Carlos in a Twins uniform tonight against the Sox.

[Irishmans Shanty]

I believe a trade scenario for Soriano or Lee would involve one more element. The established player. Would you trade Kubel, Garza, and Luis Castillo for Soriano? If so, can you live with Soriano as your 2nd baseman for the stretch. Will his stick make up for his glove? Can you live with the fact that re-signing him would be unlikely and the Twins would not have Garza, Castillo, and Kubel coming to Spring Training next year.

[EREmpireStrikesBack]

No. You don't trade Kubel. Give them Garza and Castillo and something, but no Kubel.

[packerboy]

No way do I part with Castillo now. I am trying to get into the playoffs. He has been there and done that. He stays.

When I have a team with Liriano and Santana going the way they are going and I am 3 games back...I aint thinkin about next spring. I am looking toward this October.

I dont need Kubel in Oct if I have Lee. Garza isnt even on the team.

If that doesnt do it, Id throw in Hunter.

Look boys, if this team gets into the play offs, They would be my favorite to win it all. Why? The 2 pitchers previously named.
They could win a series by themselves.

Bleep next spring.

[Irishmans Shanty]

Packerboy, I'm with you. Let's win now. Next spring is the time to worry about next spring. Twins management has three more days to take the "Let's wait and see approach." The problem with their line of thinking is a sweep either way against the Sox will not slam the door shut, nor knock it down. If the Twins are going to do a Carlos Lee or Soriano type deal, this series beginning tonight shouldn't have any affect on it.

The Twins need two things, a starter and a power hitting outfielder. The Twins won't go outside to get both, therefore, if I can only choose one, I'll take Carlos Lee. Lee does more for me than Soriano, and the two do more for me than a guy who will only play one in five from here on out.
Terry, do what you need to do to get Lee and not hurt our October chances. If the future must be sacrificed, you have my blessing and I won't blast you for it later. For once, make a statement that this organization is here to win now. Terry, by getting a big bat you improve yourself and also keep that bat from falling into the enemies lineup.

[ChrisK]

That's right packerboy, Ryan needs to make a move that will improve the team this year. I'd agree with packerboy that you wouldn't want to move Castillo but my reason would be that you'd be giving up your leadoff hitter with noone to fill that role. Will Soriano and Lee be free agents at the end of the year? If not, I'd think about throwing Cuddyer into the mix.

I really think they have bigger need for a starter though. Both the Tigers and White Sox have four or five solid starters, the Twins have two Cy Young candidates, a veteran with a suspect shoulder and not much else. Per Sid's column yesterday, Radke's shoulder would need surgery if he wanted to pitch next year and like I said before if he goes down this staff gets really thin.

When is the trade deadline, next Monday the 31st? It should be an interesting week.