2006-7 KRACH "Power Rankings"

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Fri Dec 08, 2006 3:21 pm

Stinkin Rootbeer wrote:Alex 13 Morris/benson 0

THANKS!

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Sat Dec 09, 2006 1:39 am

Updated 12/09 - 2A

http://www.bgoski.com/rank/Rankings.htm

MISSING:
12/8/2006 St. Peter/Lesueur-Henderson Fairmont
12/8/2006 Worthington Watertown (SD)

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Sat Dec 09, 2006 12:39 pm

I beleive some of the games that are "missing" scores likely were PPD... I'll rerun all of this tonight with the Sat scores & updated Fri & pre-Fri info...

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Sun Dec 10, 2006 6:54 pm

Updated 12/10 - 6P

http://www.bgoski.com/rank/Rankings.htm

MISSING:
12/9/2006 Centennial Roch. Mayo
12/9/2006 Lake of the Woods East Range Lady Knights
12/9/2006 Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato Hutchinson

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Mon Dec 11, 2006 2:10 pm

Updated 12/11 - 2P

http://www.bgoski.com/rank/Rankings.htm

MISSING:
NONE

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:09 pm

Updated 12/12 - 12P

http://www.bgoski.com/rank/Rankings.htm

MISSING:
NONE

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 10:47 am

Updated 12/13 - 11:30A

http://www.bgoski.com/rank/Rankings.htm

MISSING:
12/12/2006 Detroit Lakes Park Rapids

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 4:12 pm

I realize these rankings are by computer and it's still too early for any hope that they would be accurate, but here are a few obvious flaws so far in terms of who's ranked too high or too low:

RANKED TOO HIGH
No. 2 Breck - undefeated, but most games against weak or very average opponents
No. 3 Crookston - obviously good, but not No. 3 in the state
No. 4 Bemidji - Top ten maybe, but not No. 4
No. 11 Alexandria - see comments for Breck above

RANKED TOO LOW
No. 8 Eden Prairie - No. 1 (or #2, at worst)
No. 5 Roseville - should be No. 3 behind Eden Prairie/Holy Angels
No. 6 Edina - I would have them No. 4
No. 28 Hill Murray - can't imagine that there are 27 better teams (look at who they've played)

All just my opinion of course - who am I to argue with a computer?

hockeywild7 · Post by **hockeywild7** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 8:00 pm

EP has to be ranked #1 until they are beaten. Whether or not that happens this season we will have to wait and see. Could be some good matchups at the Kaposia tournament.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 8:10 pm

MNHockeyFan wrote:I realize these rankings are by computer and it's still too early for any hope that they would be accurate, but here are a few obvious flaws so far in terms of who's ranked too high or too low:

RANKED TOO HIGH
No. 2 Breck - undefeated, but most games against weak or very average opponents
No. 3 Crookston - obviously good, but not No. 3 in the state
No. 4 Bemidji - Top ten maybe, but not No. 4
No. 11 Alexandria - see comments for Breck above

RANKED TOO LOW
No. 8 Eden Prairie - No. 1 (or #2, at worst)
No. 5 Roseville - should be No. 3 behind Eden Prairie/Holy Angels
No. 6 Edina - I would have them No. 4
No. 28 Hill Murray - can't imagine that there are 27 better teams (look at who they've played)

All just my opinion of course - who am I to argue with a computer?

FWIW it's still way too early for the computer to make any real good predictions as some teams are undefeated with weak SOS and until they lose they get ranked high. Just the way it is! And, that kind of makes sense, as until you lose you should be ranked high... but we all have our own ideas about the teams.

The best example I find is HM. They don't get enough credit for SOS - especially not this early, and I know of one other team from Class A that played a similar schedule a year ago, lost nearly 20 games, but was still ranked top 20 in A as the computer found a way to decipher this by year's end. I'm sure it will work out for HM too soon enough as they continue to play a tough SOS and also should be in all those games.

You'd see that I may rank the teams differently than the computer right now if I was to do it...

And - let's remember that rankings are great but mean absolutely nothing!

hockeyrube7 · Post by **hockeyrube7** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 10:08 pm

MNHockeyFan wrote:I realize these rankings are by computer and it's still too early for any hope that they would be accurate, but here are a few obvious flaws so far in terms of who's ranked too high or too low:

RANKED TOO HIGH
No. 2 Breck - undefeated, but most games against weak or very average opponents
No. 3 Crookston - obviously good, but not No. 3 in the state
No. 4 Bemidji - Top ten maybe, but not No. 4
No. 11 Alexandria - see comments for Breck above

RANKED TOO LOW
No. 8 Eden Prairie - No. 1 (or #2, at worst)
No. 5 Roseville - should be No. 3 behind Eden Prairie/Holy Angels
No. 6 Edina - I would have them No. 4
No. 28 Hill Murray - can't imagine that there are 27 better teams (look at who they've played)

All just my opinion of course - who am I to argue with a computer?

Rankings are just an opinion, and a computer is nothing but the stats it is told.

Here is my opinion based on your rankings...

RANKED TOO HIGH
No. 2 Breck - undefeated, but most games against weak or very average opponents- [Not really undefeated is undeafeted!]
No. 3 Crookston - obviously good, but not No. 3 in the state [Who says?]
No. 4 Bemidji - Top ten maybe, but not No. 4 [Agreed, but again how can you argue, so far.]
No. 11 Alexandria - see comments for Breck above [Again, undeafeted is undeafeted, yet they have been played tightly with weak teams]

RANKED TOO LOW
No. 8 Eden Prairie - No. 1 (or #2, at worst) [Yaw, but they have only what 5 games so far, compared to 11 for some. And let us not forget, they played a fairly weak schedule last year, yet won it all.]
No. 5 Roseville - should be No. 3 behind Eden Prairie/Holy Angels [Don't think so, didn't think they were that good.]
No. 6 Edina - I would have them No. 4 [I'd say top 4 is possible.]
No. 28 Hill Murray - can't imagine that there are 27 better teams (look at who they've played) [Not sure here, interesting team, should be good, yet tend to lose some they shouldn't.]

Everybody's entitled to an opinion.

hockeyrube7 · Post by **hockeyrube7** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 10:24 pm

Prediction, but just an opinion. Seen many game, and many teams, and from what I have seen, here is how I'd rank the top 10 to this point.

#1 EP- No brainer, and until someone beats them, well.
#2 AHA- May be the ones to beat EP.
#3 Edina- May be the deepest team in the state.
#4 BSM- Close second to Edina with more tallent, but more head cases too.
#5 Blake- Best speed and puck movement, just not real deep.
#6 Breck- Tons of speed and very deep, just very young. My pick as a sleeper, as every one is picking against them.
#7 Cloquet- Maybe the best coached team in the state over the past 4 to 5 years, and especialy this one.
#8 CDH- Great tallent with a great goalie.
#9 Roseville- Very deep, and great puck movement, just didn't see the big spark in this team to go all the way.
#10 This one is tough, but I'd say watch out for the North Metro Stars. Great coach, tons of tallent, big kids, and wow do they move the puck, goal tending, deep, you name it. I think they will just take some time, what with 3 schools involved and all.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 10:30 pm

hockeyrube7 wrote:
MNHockeyFan wrote:I realize these rankings are by computer and it's still too early for any hope that they would be accurate, but here are a few obvious flaws so far in terms of who's ranked too high or too low:

RANKED TOO HIGH
No. 2 Breck - undefeated, but most games against weak or very average opponents
No. 3 Crookston - obviously good, but not No. 3 in the state
No. 4 Bemidji - Top ten maybe, but not No. 4
No. 11 Alexandria - see comments for Breck above

RANKED TOO LOW
No. 8 Eden Prairie - No. 1 (or #2, at worst)
No. 5 Roseville - should be No. 3 behind Eden Prairie/Holy Angels
No. 6 Edina - I would have them No. 4
No. 28 Hill Murray - can't imagine that there are 27 better teams (look at who they've played)

All just my opinion of course - who am I to argue with a computer?

Rankings are just an opinion, and a computer is nothing but the stats it is told.

Here is my opinion based on your rankings...

RANKED TOO HIGH
No. 2 Breck - undefeated, but most games against weak or very average opponents- [Not really undefeated is undeafeted!]
No. 3 Crookston - obviously good, but not No. 3 in the state [Who says?]
No. 4 Bemidji - Top ten maybe, but not No. 4 [Agreed, but again how can you argue, so far.]
No. 11 Alexandria - see comments for Breck above [Again, undeafeted is undeafeted, yet they have been played tightly with weak teams]

RANKED TOO LOW
No. 8 Eden Prairie - No. 1 (or #2, at worst) [Yaw, but they have only what 5 games so far, compared to 11 for some. And let us not forget, they played a fairly weak schedule last year, yet won it all.]
No. 5 Roseville - should be No. 3 behind Eden Prairie/Holy Angels [Don't think so, didn't think they were that good.]
No. 6 Edina - I would have them No. 4 [I'd say top 4 is possible.]
No. 28 Hill Murray - can't imagine that there are 27 better teams (look at who they've played) [Not sure here, interesting team, should be good, yet tend to lose some they shouldn't.]

Everybody's entitled to an opinion.

If nothing else, it's fun to debate. When I rank the teams personally vs via computer I look at SOS and head-to-head as much as anything, while also looking at overall record, etc. I also realize that 1 game does not a season make, etc., etc. More recent games seem to get more value for me too, and if a team beat many teams early but lost a lot recently with similar opponents, that trend, coupled with any info. I have about injury/suspension/etc. may factor in to how I move those teams up/down relative to others. Of course, no computer can do this as a human can. All the computer can do is look at scores. KRACH only looks at W vs L. Doesn't care if you won by 1 in last seconds of OT while being outshot 100-1 or if you won 100-1 on the scoreboard. Other systems look at score, but I don't believe in this as the coaching has so much control over final score. Some score control & play deep into bench, etc. Others don't. So, score diff is useless @ HS level. At college, pros, etc. totally different as they play right up until the end in those games it seems and coaching philosophy is less a factor. Just my opinion on rankings!

hockeyrube7 · Post by **hockeyrube7** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 10:42 pm

Of course, this is the fun of all this after all, isn't it! Thus my rankings, let the debate continue.

Sealdog35 · Post by **Sealdog35** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 10:43 pm

MNHockeyFan wrote:I realize these rankings are by computer and it's still too early for any hope that they would be accurate, but here are a few obvious flaws so far in terms of who's ranked too high or too low:

RANKED TOO HIGH
No. 2 Breck - undefeated, but most games against weak or very average opponents
No. 3 Crookston - obviously good, but not No. 3 in the state
No. 4 Bemidji - Top ten maybe, but not No. 4
No. 11 Alexandria - see comments for Breck above

RANKED TOO LOW
No. 8 Eden Prairie - No. 1 (or #2, at worst)
No. 5 Roseville - should be No. 3 behind Eden Prairie/Holy Angels
No. 6 Edina - I would have them No. 4
No. 28 Hill Murray - can't imagine that there are 27 better teams (look at who they've played)

All just my opinion of course - who am I to argue with a computer?

A little biased in favor of Metro hockey perhaps? Do you know there is hockey outside of the suburbs? and do you know that these are quality teams. Crox and Bemidji have both proven to be some quality programs the last couple of years, and they dualed hard to a 2-2 tie last night in B-town. Granted they don't get to play much of the stiffer competition in the Metro area, but that's too much of a commitment. These teams have to travel 2-3 hours just to play their conference and section games. Show a little respect for those in the North.

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 11:20 pm

As I said all of this is just opinion. And although I think there are many very talented players in the North, they are more spread out. The top 5 or so AA schools in the metro area just have more depth, in addition to some very top talent, and at this point in time have stronger teams overall than the top teams in the North, or South for that matter. This could all change in the future.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Wed Dec 13, 2006 11:58 pm

Updated 12/14 - 12A

http://www.bgoski.com/rank/Rankings.htm

STILL... MISSING:
12/12/2006 Detroit Lakes Park Rapids

dumpandchase · Post by **dumpandchase** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:25 pm

Detroit Lakes and Park Rapids were postponed until January 11th.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:40 pm

dumpandchase wrote:Detroit Lakes and Park Rapids were postponed until January 11th.

THANKS!

Stinkin Rootbeer · Post by **Stinkin Rootbeer** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 11:43 am

I think you need to give Alex a little more credit..They have had two close games...one vs a conference rival and the other without a regular goaltender and they still won.

hockeywild7 · Post by **hockeywild7** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 1:53 pm

Hockeyrube, I like your thought process and rankings except in my opinion Roseville is more like a number 4 or 5 and cretin doesnt belong in the top 10. I saw Stillwater beat them easily last week. Coud be that Stillwater is better than originally first thought. Not saying I would put Stillwater in top ten but they are starting to gel. Goaltender is one of best in the state, solid defense and deep with forwards who are starting to score.

hockeyrube7 · Post by **hockeyrube7** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 2:37 pm

hockeywild7 wrote:Hockeyrube, I like your thought process and rankings except in my opinion Roseville is more like a number 4 or 5 and cretin doesnt belong in the top 10. I saw Stillwater beat them easily last week. Coud be that Stillwater is better than originally first thought. Not saying I would put Stillwater in top ten but they are starting to gel. Goaltender is one of best in the state, solid defense and deep with forwards who are starting to score.

I can't really disagree, nor agree. I have been to almost 40 games already, and seen teams from the iron range to Austin in person, but out of the top 10 I listed I have yet to see CDH or EP play this season. So I have to admit that some of what I am going off of, is what I know of the kids involved, past viewing of these teams and kids, and what the media brings.

That being said. I did watch Roseville play just last week, and I didn't see what everyone is talking about. They are very deep, and a lot of tallent, but I've also seen youger teams break out better, and put the puck away more so, and play more like a team. And I've heard a lot of chatter about their #13, but the one I was most impressed with was #15, as an over all player. They may very well be a #4 or even higher when it is all said and done.

CDH- I figure their game against Stillwater to an anomally more than the norm. But again, I have yet to see them play this season. Looks like they play Roseville this weekend, that may the game of the weekend?

Let's see your top 10, I love to see what everyone thinks!

This stuff is way to much fun! It is going to be a shame when they change the OE rule, and more T-Bred type of teams start forming.

hockeyrube7 · Post by **hockeyrube7** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 2:42 pm

Stinkin Rootbeer wrote:I think you need to give Alex a little more credit..They have had two close games...one vs a conference rival and the other without a regular goaltender and they still won.

I would, but I haven't seen them play yet this year, and from what I have seen they are barely beating some teams that others are crushing. I think the Holmes kid might be one of the best D in the state. Put her and Schlepper, from St Cloud Icebreakers, together, and they would be the best pair of D around! Oh yeah, that is another thread.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 4:02 pm

FWIW I think CDH HM & SW are all deserving of top 15, if not top 10, consideration as the season continues.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Fri Dec 15, 2006 4:11 pm

FWIW - I think some outstate teams - including N & S MN may or may not get as much credit as they're due b/c the SOS (Strength-of-Schedule) that some of them play (many times they have little choice/control over this) may or may not always be strong enough to warrant a top computer-based ranking. The best example I can see relative to this is that there were some small-school metro teams ranked in the top 20 in A last year with amazing SOS (due to metro opposition/conf. play/etc.) & many losses and some of those teams were ranked with or higher than outstate teams with many W's but weak SOS (in the computer's eyes - based on its ranking algorithm).

HighSchoolHockeyForums.com

2006-7 KRACH "Power Rankings"

Updated 12/09 - 2A

Updated 12/10 - 6P

Updated 12/11 - 2P

Updated 12/12 - 12P

Updated 12/13 - 11:30A

Updated 12/14 - 12A

Ranked too high

Re: Ranked too high