Upset in the making?

jmpfan2008 · Post by **jmpfan2008** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 11:35 pm

There is no doubt that Breck has been a sleeper so far, going undefeated through 2006 and beating solid teams such as minnetonka and armstrong (twice). They face arguably their toughest mathchup this thursday as they take on Blake.

What does everyone think about Breck's chances to beat Blake for the first time since 1995?

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Tue Jan 02, 2007 11:46 pm

I've seen Breck three times, Blake twice. Breck is deeper, and if they can keep Blake's top three players in check, especially Katherine Chute, they could win. This should be a very good matchup.

pondhockey · Post by **pondhockey** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 9:56 am

It'll be a great game, no doubt, close to the end; but I anticipate Blake winning by two goals.

trilogy · Post by **trilogy** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 11:12 am

I've cast my vote for Blake.

Breck plusses - looking at their games so far, they get quite a few more shots on goal than Blake. Several 40+ shot games. Definitely have the offensive drive.

Breck minus - as has been repeated several times, they haven't seen a team the likes of an Edina or BSM yet.

Blake plusses - wicked first line. Vs common opponents, Blake has won by more of a margin in every matchup. Senior goaltender.

Blake minus - can't think of any. I don't agree that Breck is deeper. Both teams match up well as far as experience goes.

Odd note when looking at past games, did Blake really record a no-shot shutout last night? MaxPreps doesn't have any save stats for the Blake goalie.

As far as a score prediction, I'll go with 5-2 Blake. The first period will probably not be indicative of the whole game, rivalry games can be that way as nerves are at a high point. But Blake has proven they can stay with the big guys so in that aspect experience should help them.

Breck hasn't won since 1995 eh? I'm going to go see this one in person I think, should be entertaining.

Roman Legion · Post by **Roman Legion** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 11:20 am

This should be a great test for Breck. Breck will have to try and overcome the mental edge of not beating Blake since 1995. Look for Blake to win this one and Breck to close the gap between the first and second games.

twowayplay · Post by **twowayplay** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 12:47 pm

Blake 6, Breck 2.....Breck has some great players in Swintowski and Curry but they can't match the firepower of the Chutes'. Goaltending could make a difference here but not too familiar with each

justafan · Post by **justafan** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 1:22 pm

Must vote for my Bears of course

But I think it may be closer than some are predicting. My gut says 6-3, but that may be a stretch.

The girls are really looking forward to this one and so are the parents of course. It may come down to goaltending. I predict there will be more than a few goals. Nerves may factor in the early game but the Bears can overcome that, seen them do it already a couple of times this season alone. Can the Mustangs say the same, if they get down a goal or two can they fight back?

My hope as always is for a nice, clean, well fought match and may the better team prevail. I hope no bad calls, soft goals or controversies spoil the fun!

Go Bears

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 1:44 pm

Well according to the KRACH ratings Breck should be almost a 5-1 favorite to win, even though 70% of the small (human) sample responding to this thread's poll so far believe Blake will win. I am personally in the Blake camp but if Breck can wear down Blake's top guns through relentless pressure and good defensive play, I do think Breck could easily spring an "upset". But it wouldn't be an upset according to KRACH....

twowayplay · Post by **twowayplay** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:00 pm

How can that be when SOS Ranking for Blake is 4 times stronger? Blake 21st vs Breck 81st. Am I reading this wrong?

xk1 · Post by **xk1** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:05 pm

Because Breck is 16-0 and Blake is 12-4, I would expect Breck to drop down a lot if they lose. Krach needs a more diverse schedule to work, there is always at least 1 team that plays a weak schedule and plays well so they get ranked too high.

ghshockeyfan · Post by **ghshockeyfan** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:11 pm

twowayplay wrote:How can that be when SOS Ranking for Blake is 4 times stronger? Blake 21st vs Breck 81st. Am I reading this wrong?

SOS is deceiving. It's an average of the ranks of all the opponents a team faces. So, two teams could play 10 games, and have the same SOS, same record, but much different rankings based on which teams they actually faced.

Example:

Team A plays a game against each of the top 10 teams in the state - they woudl have an SOS of approx 5

Team B plays 5 games against the team ranked 4 in the state, and 5 games against the team ranked 6 in the state - they too would have an SOS of approx 5

If both teams lose only 1 game, which is better? Krach would say that the team that played all of the top 5 teams is better. Krach assumes they lost to the #1 ranked team - or that their loss comes against the best team they faced.

How is this a "problem?" Well, if a team is inconsistent, and beats teams ranked high but loses to teams ranked low, then they are only given credit by KRACh for W's against the weak teams on their scheudle. This may seem unfair, but should an inconsistent team really be ranked that high???

Also, this is all why you can't look at SOS & record alone and assume that a team should be ranked above/below another team. You have to actually look at the opponents directly.

This is also why two teams can play head-to-head and the loser ranked ahead of the winner. One game doesn't a season make, and chances are that a team that lost head-to-head beat a better team ranked ahead of the head-to-head opponent that they are still ranked ahead of after losing to them.

xk1 wrote:Because Breck is 16-0 and Blake is 12-4, I would expect Breck to drop down a lot if they lose. Krach needs a more diverse schedule to work, there is always at least 1 team that plays a weak schedule and plays well so they get ranked too high.

And, teams that are perfect (undefeated) can only be ranked ahead of everyone as they have no losses. If two teams are undefeated, the one with the better SOS should be higher. Note, "undefeated" really means - no ties or losses. Ties count as .5 wins, and if you have two ties it really looks like a W & a L to KRACh as a result.

hotdog · Post by **hotdog** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 2:34 pm

jmpfan2008 wrote:There is no doubt that Breck has been a sleeper so far, going undefeated through 2006 and beating solid teams such as minnetonka and armstrong (twice). They face arguably their toughest mathchup this thursday as they take on Blake.

What does everyone think about Breck's chances to beat Blake for the first time since 1995?

Blake 3
Breck 1

Blake has too much team speed and top end power!

jmpfan2008 · Post by **jmpfan2008** » Wed Jan 03, 2007 10:04 pm

"Breck hasn't seen a team the likes of an Edina or BSM yet."

This is true, they haven't played edina or BSM, but they did beat armstrong twice by a multiple goal margin. Armstrong tied Edina 2-2, Edina beat blake 5-3. Breck, if they play well, has the potential to upset Blake and turn some heads.

Breck will definatly need to play to their full potential, and if that happens, they could pull it off. They might not have played the big name teams, but they have beaten teams that gave edina and bsm a good run

Another this that could have an affect is Blake has finals next week, Breck is still on break. Breck has had a chance to get pumped for the game, while blake is stressed about finals, could this have an effect?

Sioux Rule · Post by **Sioux Rule** » Thu Jan 04, 2007 12:28 pm

I like Blake in this one. I think they're more "seasoned" at this point.

justafan · Post by **justafan** » Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:00 pm

Bears over Mustangs 4-0

1 goal in the 1st

3 goals in the 2nd

Great play by both teams, and both goalies were solid.

Much fun to watch, and we are looking forward to the rematch.

Breck is a worthy opponent, thank you girls for a great game.

Go Bears

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Thu Jan 04, 2007 10:18 pm

justafan wrote:Bears over Mustangs 4-0

1 goal in the 1st

3 goals in the 2nd

Great play by both teams, and both goalies were solid.

Much fun to watch, and we are looking forward to the rematch.

Breck is a worthy opponent, thank you girls for a great game.

Go Bears

Blake just had too much speed and firepower for Breck. Despite Breck's goalie playing very well, Blake scored 4 goals and deserved all of them. Breck was never able to mount consistent pressure in the offensive zone and didn't have enough good scoring chances to make it real interesting. Blake clearly deserves the No. 1 ranking in Class A at this point.

GoBears · Post by **GoBears** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:10 am

MNHockeyFan wrote:I've seen Breck three times, Blake twice. Breck is deeper, and if they can keep Blake's top three players in check, especially Katherine Chute, they could win. This should be a very good matchup.

Evidently not "deep" enough. Time to get on the hotline to sweeden.

justafan · Post by **justafan** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:29 am

It is worth the price of gas plus the cost of admission to see the Chute sisters in action. Over this season they have developed an uncanny knack of knowing exactly where the other is on the ice, which leads to some amazing plays. And if a sister isn't open, well then Sally Komarek is right there capitalizing on the opportunity. Ya really should come and take in a game before the sisters are separated - this is a short-lived opportunity to see what is IMHO the top line in the state, bar none. Yes they are even better than EP's (Kennedy) line, and it is because of their synergy. Simply amazing

StarTrib story today

http://www.startribune.com/526/story/916781.html

Go Bears

hockeyrube7 · Post by **hockeyrube7** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:55 am

You are correct, the Chutes are good together! Seen a lot of their games so far. Katherine Chute should be a top 3 canidate for Ms. Hockey this year, if not maybe #1, IMHO. When she hits the ice, the level of play jumps to a whole different level. I do politely beg to differ with you on the EP first line. I have seen them play a few also, and They move the puck as well as anyone I have seen, and they have all 3 with "synergy".

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:53 pm

GoBears wrote:
MNHockeyFan wrote:I've seen Breck three times, Blake twice. Breck is deeper, and if they can keep Blake's top three players in check, especially Katherine Chute, they could win. This should be a very good matchup.
Evidently not "deep" enough. Time to get on the hotline to sweeden.

Notice I said Breck "could" win, and also note this from my other post above:

"I am personally in the Blake camp but if Breck can wear down Blake's top guns through relentless pressure and good defensive play, I do think Breck could easily spring an 'upset'..."

Obviously, Breck had no success wearing Blake's top players down - they were very strong for all three periods and completely dominated the play when they were out there. I was somewhat surprised, however, that it was as one-sided as it was.

HighSchoolHockeyForums.com

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