This is certainly the case. More than one person I've talked to has made the observation that early varsity placement in girls hockey seems to be a less than reliable predictor of future success and continued development. I suppose this is because a number of factors... the pool of players is comparatively quite small to boys but equity creates a large number of HS programs and opportunities...the proverbial "burnout" factor... some girls maturing to adult physical stature at age 13-14 while others do not until HS...and a curious phenomenon you often see where a young athlete "loses a step" following these physical changes in their early HS years--doesn't happen to all, but some. I'm sure GHS and some of the coaches might have seen this. Ask any varsity cross country or track coach.trilogy wrote: Give them credit this season, you never know what the next will bring.
I also think there's been a recent era of expolsive growth in girls hockey that has given rise to expanded training and post-season team opportunities...that have given a large number of young underclass players a good deal more hockey skills and preparation than even some of today's HS seniors. This is evaporating quickly, but I know for our local HS team up until last year there were a number of players who hadn't even started playing until 7th grade! Many hang up their skates in February and have never shot a dryland puck on their own. By contrast, with today's middle schoolers, parents have to remain wary of burnout before they even reach the HS team! Has the number of summer AAA teams and off-season opportunities created a monster? Or is it a positive development step for the sport?
You will easily see some girls "come out of nowhere" in HS in the coming years. They might never be considered elite players, but with a degree of motivation and some training, can easily pass by some who used to be considered elite who now survive on reputation. Parents of young developing players will look past "finding a AAA team" and devote their funds to a good skating and/or stickhandling school instead. If a kid chooses to "compete" against themselves in training rather than focusing against other kids in summer games, I believe they will develop a better ability to succeed.
I think this point in time is a growth bubble in girls HS hockey and that 7th and 8th graders on most HS teams will begin to level out or diminish within the next few years. May not be the case in communities where population will continue to necessitate it however.
It's a strange mix of sports, parental egos, affluence and, although some will argue, a fairly low bar that still exists on many HS teams for a middle schooler to be considered valuable to the varsity. Obviouly it's different with every kid. With these conditions, it's very tough for parents to be patient, but thankfully most HS coaches recognize what can be a fragile situation and do a great job of shepherding their young players.