07-08 Class AA prognostication thread

[OntheEdge]

Even though Edina is losing much of last year's offensive production to graduation, their real strength this past year was in their overall balance and team defense. No doubt with their returning goalie, their deep youth program plus a very good JV team they will be tough again defensively next year as well. The real question will be can they score enough against other teams that are deep + strong defensively. Wayzata and Hopkins certainly won't be easy wins for anybody.

Hopkins is my real choice 3 svery strong lines and a very solid "D" and great "G" as well. Can't list all the top players that I would like at this time. Solid group well coached.

Edina and Wayzata lost some very good players, so who will step up? So that 2 spot will be up for grabs. You know these 2 teams always rebound and just keep moving foreward. But I look for both teams to start slow and end fast.

Minnetonka I really can't say much about them I did not see them play last year. They did loose 2 good forewards Kristi Cleveland
Michelle Carter and some "D" as well. But I have heard that they have some very good players coming up so that could change things around and make things interesting.

Armstrong, I think they lost the most up front with Grossman, Berner and Fallen. So this team will need some girls to step up big time if they want to challange for that number 1 spot this year.


So after looking at some of the rosters again I will go with this as my final perdiction.

1. Hopkins
2. Wayzata
3. Edina
4. Minnetonka
5. Armstrong

[/quote]

I think this is a pretty good prediction. Edina and Minnetonka should be very good but also very young overall. Hopkins was strong, talented and young last year and should benefit from last year's seasoning. Wayzata is strong but they may be in weakening from a weaker talent pool at the youth level the last couple of years.

In my opinion Wayzata will be the team to beat this year and Hopkins in the following year. Minnetonka and Edina are a year or two away from challenging in the future. Minnetonka moves up some talented girls from U14A (especially Rachael Ramsey) but Benilde gets a gem in Jordan Brynes. Edina moves up 4-5 very strong players from U14A to add to the strong sophmore class of Buie, Gleason and Hinueber. I don't know much about Armstrong except that their youth teams were pretty ordinary over the last few years.

[keepitreal]

Good stuff on the Classic Lake...

Any insiders have a gauge on the Suburban East conference? This is going to be a heavyweight battle among some of the better teams in the state:

Stillwater
Roseville
Cretin-Derham Hall
Forest Lake
Hastings
White Bear Lake
Mounds View
Woodbury
Park

We've talked about the champs; my main curiousity is how Roseville is looking. CDH should be improved and you never know who might transfer in. I like Forest Lake to make a statement at the sectional level. Probable Ms. Hockey candidate Dani Welch and Hastings will give the south metro teams a bunch of trouble in sections too. White Bear has had tremendous youth success the last few years and should begin to see that impact; not sure about the rest.

[spr air 210]

Forest lake graduates 6 seniors, loses goalie carpenter to centennial and new head coach. It will take some regrouping and great coaching to rebound, the seniors were big impact players, and unfortunately the youth program isn't as deep as its competition like WB lake,Stillwater,Roseville,Mounds View. Carpenter was out with shoulder separation early Jan for the season, they play 2 goalies
but only won 3 of last 10 games when she was out, including 1st round loss to Proctor.

[titleist]

Good stuff on the Classic Lake...

We've talked about the champs; my main curiousity is how Roseville is looking. CDH should be improved and you never know who might transfer in. I like Forest Lake to make a statement at the sectional level. Probable Ms. Hockey candidate Dani Welch and Hastings will give the south metro teams a bunch of trouble in sections too. White Bear has had tremendous youth success the last few years and should begin to see that impact; not sure about the rest.

Roseville will be a contender. 5 of their 6 defense will be returning along with 2 of their top lines less Cody. Rosevilles 4th line was comprised of their JV's top line which only lost 2 games all year. They are losing a couple of solid role players, but with what is coming up, hopefully those roles will be filled, and then some.

[findme]

spr air 210-what kind of goalie is Carpenter from FL? Any stats on her?? If she is any good whats so every-she will fit in nicely at Centennial. What they don't need is another "average" goalie.

[spr air 210]

She was phase 2 1988/1989 east team last year but was unable to try out this year do to separated shoulder. Plays for Walser blue this year,along with Grogan from eagan, but was on walser Quinn for vermont and U19aaa midwest team, which won the championship.

[Bensonmum]

The SubEast has to be one of the top 2 in the state in 07-08.

Stillwater loses a little on D but will be very good.
Roseville loses Cody and Goalie Kapsner, but returns so much of their D and offense, should be good--will have a great soph class. Brausen split time in nets with Kapsner last year.
CDH loses least of all and should be more settled in goal than last year. Return true stars in Keys and Wild. Might be favorites in conference.
Hastings loses outstanding goalie, but will they have the best player in the conference (Welch) ?
When will the young players on WBL's U12 and U14 programs pay off at the HS level? Do they all go to HM?

[findme]

Spr Air...Alrighty then-sounds like she will fit in very nicely.

[keepitreal]

The SubEast has to be one of the top 2 in the state in 07-08.

Stillwater loses a little on D but will be very good.
Roseville loses Cody and Goalie Kapsner, but returns so much of their D and offense, should be good--will have a great soph class. Brausen split time in nets with Kapsner last year.
CDH loses least of all and should be more settled in goal than last year. Return true stars in Keys and Wild. Might be favorites in conference.
Hastings loses outstanding goalie, but will they have the best player in the conference (Welch) ?
When will the young players on WBL's U12 and U14 programs pay off at the HS level? Do they all go to HM?

Thanks mum, I agree this will be an extremely strong conference and for most of these teams a tough section.

[keepitreal]

Eden Prairie's chances might take a hit should they experience the rumored departure of several good players. They will still have a strong core of top senior talent with Feste, Ludwigson, Seeler and goalie Burke among others. They will be very strong regardless if they can pull together.

[Melvin44]

WBL has/will lose 6 players from there state teams to Hill and TG. Next year will be the year if any as they still have Maddeline Lenz (2 year all conference goalie) was injured a little last year. Looked great in the O.S. elite league this spring. They will have 9 seniors and 4 solid sophmore returners juniors and freshmen this year. They will have to find scoring. After that we will need to find a goalie for 2008+. We'll have to see how the private's, Stillwater, Centennial, do it...

We love the tough competition in our conference and sections and with a little luck????.

Please everyone keep talking about Stillwater, Roseville, Hill, Cretin, not to mention NSP.

[joehockey]

CDH will be strong again especially with the new goalie who has come in from Somerset and is already enrolled in school - is she eligible for the entire season next year? Her play for the Eastside Eagles during the Meltdown was superlative.

It sounds like Hill Murray has maybe as many as 5 talented transfers and a lot of incoming freshman talent to go with a solid group of returners. They also have a new coach who has a tremendous hockey background. He has the group together in what looks like a very extensive summer camp on and off ice during June and July. If he can develop scrong to go with top defense they may be a real sleeper.

[Twinnesota]

Oh no - is this the start of another discussion about how most of the top AA teams are in the west metro?

I would rather hear about the Austin goalie situation from the crazies in the 1A thread.

(Although I have to admit that the never-ending discussions about spring Showcase games, the IQs of southern Minnesotans, etc. is pretty entertaining).

Some of what you're saying here makes me think you are from Iowa !!
Not very "Minnesota Nice"

T

[ghshockeyfan]

It's still going to be very interesting with the new transfer rules. I think lots of kids have paperwork in at multiple schools but I expect the private schools to be the biggest winners in this one last large movement to beat the change in transfer rule deadline.

As much as ever though, it will depend on where kids are at come day 1 of school next year. Until then, it's all talk/rumor unfortunately.

I think it will be interesting to see which private school gains the most from the movement. I expect BSM, HM, CDH, and AHA to be right up there.

About the only thing I know for sure at this point is one V team may be among the youngest in the state.

[OntheEdge]

It's still going to be very interesting with the new transfer rules. I think lots of kids have paperwork in at multiple schools but I expect the private schools to be the biggest winners in this one last large movement to beat the change in transfer rule deadline.

I agree GHS. It will be VERY interesting. I think its a good bet that this year will go down as the big coup for the privates. By not making the new transfer rule retroactive, it appears that there is a mad rush to get into the privates this year. If the rumors are in fact correct there will be a lot of parents wishing that they kept their daughter in their public school if playing time is the sole reason they are transferring (especially if the player is less than an elite level player). With the projected glut of talent at the privates playing time could be an issue for all but the most talented. In particular, if the rumors are true it seems that BSM will be overloaded with talent.

[allhoc11]

I agree GHS. It will be VERY interesting. I think its a good bet that this year will go down as the big coup for the privates. By not making the new transfer rule retroactive, it appears that there is a mad rush to get into the privates this year. If the rumors are in fact correct there will be a lot of parents wishing that they kept their daughter in their public school if playing time is the sole reason they are transferring (especially if the player is less than an elite level player). With the projected glut of talent at the privates playing time could be an issue for all but the most talented. In particular, if the rumors are true it seems that BSM will be overloaded with talent.

Oh boy are going to get into another private bashing session? If the rumors are true it sounds as if a certain public school will be the big winner, maybe not as big as EP was the past few years, but some very good players coming in. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

[hotdog]

EP may struggle next year. Rumor has it they have had two assistant coaches resign recently. I wonder why this would have happened? If my memory serves me right those two assistants have been there for many years. Are players also leaving?



[quote="allhoc11"][quote="OntheEdge"]I agree GHS. It will be VERY interesting. I think its a good bet that this year will go down as the big coup for the privates. By not making the new transfer rule retroactive, it appears that there is a mad rush to get into the privates this year. If the rumors are in fact correct there will be a lot of parents wishing that they kept their daughter in their public school if playing time is the sole reason they are transferring (especially if the player is less than an elite level player). With the projected glut of talent at the privates playing time could be an issue for all but the most talented. In particular, if the rumors are true it seems that BSM will be overloaded with talent.[/quote]

Oh boy are going to get into another private bashing session? If the rumors are true it sounds as if a certain public school will be the big winner, maybe not as big as EP was the past few years, but some very good players coming in. I guess we will just have to wait and see.[/quote]

[OntheEdge]

I agree GHS. It will be VERY interesting. I think its a good bet that this year will go down as the big coup for the privates. By not making the new transfer rule retroactive, it appears that there is a mad rush to get into the privates this year. If the rumors are in fact correct there will be a lot of parents wishing that they kept their daughter in their public school if playing time is the sole reason they are transferring (especially if the player is less than an elite level player). With the projected glut of talent at the privates playing time could be an issue for all but the most talented. In particular, if the rumors are true it seems that BSM will be overloaded with talent.

Oh boy are going to get into another private bashing session? If the rumors are true it sounds as if a certain public school will be the big winner, maybe not as big as EP was the past few years, but some very good players coming in. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

I think you misunderstood me. I wasn't bashing the privates. I think private school is a good opportunity for the right kids. I was merely commenting on rumored mad rush to transfer now to beat the March 31st deadline. However, you raised my curiosity on the rumored public school that stands to benefit from the rush. I haven't heard the rumor. Can you shed any light?

[allhoc11]

I think you misunderstood me. I wasn't bashing the privates. I think private school is a good opportunity for the right kids. I was merely commenting on rumored mad rush to transfer now to beat the March 31st deadline. However, you raised my curiosity on the rumored public school that stands to benefit from the rush. I haven't heard the rumor. Can you shed any light?

I can't say much, but it sounds as if the two schools that may benefit the most are in the same section. One private, one public, again these are just rumors, and we won't really know the truth until the first day of school next year. It has been mentioned on this board before but a top notch goalie is changing schools in the north metro.

Sorry I wasn't trying to be defensive, but there were a couple posts in a row saying privates were going to be the big winners, I think kids will be going to both public and private when the dust settles. At first look it seems to be the end of free agency, but I think people will be suprised by how many kids/families will find a way to change schools even with the new rules in place.

[ghshockeyfan]

Did anyone see the number of kids going to private vs. public in the media recently. I believe the MSHSL apps/paperwork were quoted to be highly in favor of privates (I bet they always are though?), and so my guess is that it would follow that the privates will be the big winners of this one last rush to move.

That isn't an anti-private statement - simply an observation based on the numbers. I may have my facts wrong here though on the #'s so correct me if I remembered those #'s wrong!

[ghshockeyfan]

EP may struggle next year. Rumor has it they have had two assistant coaches resign recently. I wonder why this would have happened? If my memory serves me right those two assistants have been there for many years. Are players also leaving?

Two assistant coaches did resign. My limited discussion with the players I know from the program indicates that most, if not all, players are staying put.

I don't know everyone at EP, and even if I did I don't know that they'd all tell me the truth, but so far I hear that many if not all are staying from the players I do know - but I hear many other "rumors" to the contrary. I think this is mainly due to the high profile nature of the players and program at EP - when you're among the best you're going to get the most rumors and attention, etc.

I also believe that we have many kids at many schools putting in multiple apps/paperwork to keep their options open. How many actually move, and if so where, remains to be seen until Sept 2007.

[OntheEdge]

Sorry I wasn't trying to be defensive, but there were a couple posts in a row saying privates were going to be the big winners, I think kids will be going to both public and private when the dust settles. At first look it seems to be the end of free agency, but I think people will be suprised by how many kids/families will find a way to change schools even with the new rules in place.

I wouldn't be surprised that people will find a way. We personally have considered transferring (mostly for academics but hockey is part of the equation too in that many of my daughter's friends play for certain private schools). When I told my wife about the new transfer rules (thinking it was the end of the matter being considered), she looked at it as an opportunity for her to finally get me agree to move our residence. LOL I suppose if people have enough money to pay the private tuition the cost of moving, if necessary, might not be an issue.

I think this year will be a good year for privates if the rumors are true there will be lots of players transferring to private schools. My comments were more about parents rushing to transfer ahead of the deadline. Instead of the orderly transfer of a few good players here and there, it is possible that the numbers get a little out of whack and some kids' parents might be surprised that what looked like a good situation is all of the sudden a bad situation from a playing time standpoint. Some of the private school kids might experience what the EP kids did in some transfers taking taking spots from kids already there. Only time will tell.

[JJhockeySS]

Did anyone see the number of kids going to private vs. public in the media recently. I believe the MSHSL apps/paperwork were quoted to be highly in favor of privates (I bet they always are though?), and so my guess is that it would follow that the privates will be the big winners of this one last rush to move.

I can only speak on behalf our situation, and I didn't see anything in the media about this. In our school the only change we saw from a normal year was a much larger than normal freshman class.........I'm not sure if this is fallout from the new rule or not, but our incoming freshman class is nearly double(female hockey players) its normal size. Other classes there is no mass influx of athletes. That's just our situation, it could be different at other privates.

[ghshockeyfan]

I think it would also be interesting to see if the % going public vs. private (in the end) follows a similar distribution as other prior years. Meaning, I'm just curious as to if in the end if the % that go public vs. private may have changed as a result of this one-time rush... I'm not surprised that the overall #'s are up though too.

JJ - also - it may be the stellar coaching and outstanding program too that is attracting all those kids (not through recruitment - but due to quality of hockey program in addition to school, etc.)...

I wish I had copied that article from one of the major papers as I thought it said that the "big winners" in the mass movement so far appear to be the privates - and I thought the comment was that more so than normal vs. publics % wise, not just in #'s but maybe I'm wrong...

Also - any coach that has access to the admin portion of the MSHSL site can see the transfers that beat the deadline. I don't know that incoming freshmen are listed in this though, just the 9-11th graders that have the paperwork in for a transfer this coming season. Also - I think if a kid is moving (changing residence) they won't be listed on there either, but I could be wrong...

[ghshockeyfan]

I found it - I should have known that it would have been posted elsewhere on here...

"Nearly 1,000 seek to transfer ahead of rule change"

Article in today's StarTribune:

http://www.startribune.com/526/story/1142238.html

This kind of summarizes what we've been saying:

"I'm not sure what any of this means," said Chris Franson, a Minnesota State High School League assistant director. "We may not know exactly until next year to see if they actually transfer."

It would be interesting to know how many of the 919 students were varsity athletes last year, and of these how many are male/female hockey players.

Nearly 1,000 seek to transfer ahead of rule change
Nearly 1,000 student-athletes completed paperwork to change schools before new, tougher transfer rules took effect April 1.

Last update: April 24, 2007 – 8:14 PM

Tuesday's prep scoreboard
Nearly 1,000 student- athletes completed paperwork to change schools before new, tougher transfer rules took effect April 1.
Under the new rules, students who change schools without a change of residence can be ruled ineligible for varsity sports for one year. The previous rules allowed for one transfer with no penalty.

A total of 919 students filed "intent to transfer" forms before the deadline. But 106 students filed more than one form, giving them several schools as attendance options for the 2007-08 school year. Among the top 10 schools that students listed as prospective schools for next fall, eight are private schools.

"I'm not sure what any of this means," said Chris Franson, a Minnesota State High School League assistant director. "We may not know exactly until next year to see if they actually transfer."


JOHN MILLEA