UPDATED 12/25 Odds against reaching STATE AA tournament

[O-townClown]

A little movement now that the first run of games is in the books. Revisions to season-starting odds in bold.


SECTION 1

5:2 Lakeville North 5:4
7:2 Rochester Century 20:1
11:2 Owatonna 4:1
6:1 Lakeville South 15:1
10:1 Rochester Mayo 5:2
20:1 Rochester John Marshall
50:1 Farmington
100:1 Winona
1000:1 Dodge County

SECTION 2

3:4 Edina
3:1 Holy Angels 6:1
10:1 Burnsville 4:1
20:1 Bloomington Jefferson 5:1
30:1 Chaska 50:1
100:1 Shakopee
100:1 Prior Lake
150:1 Bloomington Kennedy

SECTION 3

2:1 Rosemount 5:2
2:1 Cretin-Derham Hall 5:1
4:1 Woodbury 3:1
10:1 Eagan 8:1
12:1 Eastview 3:1
20:1 Apple Valley
100:1 Hastings
150:1 Park
200:1 Henry Sibley

SECTION 4

Even Hill-Murray 2:3
4:1 White Bear Lake 8:1
10:1 Roseville 7:1
10:1 Stillwater 20:1
25:1 North 80:1
35:1 Tartan 15:1
50:1 Mounds View
125:1 St. Paul Johnson
150:1 St. Paul Como Park

SECTION 5

2:3 Centennial EVEN
4:1 Blaine 3:1
10:1 Maple Grove 7:1
20:1 Rogers 75:1
40:1 Champlin Park 20:1
50:1 Coon Rapids 35:1
100:1 Osseo 20:1
100:1 Irondale
100:1 North Metro

SECTION 6

2:1 Benilde-St. Margaret's
3:1 Minnetonka 2:1
4:1 Eden Prairie
5:1 Wayzata
25:1 Robbinsdale Armstrong
30:1 Hopkins
100:1 Robbinsdale Cooper
1000:1 Minneapolis West
10000:1 Minneapolis East

SECTION 7

3:2 Anoka 5:1
4:1 Duluth East 3:1
4:1 Cloquet 3:1
10:1 Grand Rapids 7:1
15:1 Elk River 25:1
30:1 Forest Lake 15:1
100:1 Andover 25:1
500:1 Cambridge-Isanti
1000:1 St. Francis

SECTION 8

3:7 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead
20:1 Buffalo
20:1 Brainerd 10:1
25:1 Northern Lakes
50:1 St. Cloud Tech
100:1 Monticello
100:1 Becker-Big Lake
150:1 River Lakes

[goldenhockey20]

That's good stuff......

[O-townClown]

I didn't have a chance to include commentary last night. I was weary from pre-Christmas preparations.

Section 1 looks like the weakest in AA. Century has fallen markedly from last year; Mayo is probably the class of Rochester. By default, Lakeville North sees their odds shrink as they look like the clear favorite. Owatonna got greased by Mankato West, but they still probably have a chance to make it to XCel.

Section 2 is going to have insane semifinals. Two very good teams won't even make the section final. Jefferson played Roseau tight and appears much better than thought. Edina really is all that while Holy Angels has stumbled early.

Eastview is playing very well despite a marginal record and could easily be the representative from Section 3. This might be the most wide open. Hastings couldn't beat anyone and all of a sudden they beat some decent teams. Cretin isn't the favorite as it may have appeared.

Because White Bear, expected to be the main competition to Hill-Murray, isn't faring well, the Pioneers see their chances increase. You are probably safe to write them in now for play in March. Tartan has been a bit of a surprise in Section 4 and they'd love to play the spoiler.

In Section 5 Centennial may not be as strong as previously thought, but they remain the favorite over Blaine, Maple Grove, and Champlin Park. The biggest mover here is Osseo who has been playing well of late.

Minnetonka joins Benilde as the class of Section 6, but Eden Prairie hopes to build off the momentum from a good showing at Edina's holiday tournament and Wayzata is hoping a murderous schedule has them battle tested at tournament time.

Section 7 is another that's wide open, mainly because no team has established themselves as a clear leader. A couple quarterfinal matchups will be battles. With a few breaks even Forest Lake or Elk River could emerge in George Mason fashion.

No surprises in Section 8 as Roseau is playing great and only Moorhead is likely to pull the upset.

[BIAFP]

Top to bottom both Sections 1 and 4 are really weak

[CrossbarandIn99]

Give me $10 on Lakeville South in section 1, and $10 on Eastview

[MNsGreatest#2]

10 bucks on Minneapolis East

[rochcentury908]

Wow. Century 20 to 1, I will take $10 on that. Mayo might be superior to Century right now, but they aren't 8 times more likely to win the Section. Maybe 4.