Odds against reaching AA State Tournament

[O-townClown]

SECTION 1
3:1 Lakeville S
7:2 Mayo
4:1 Owatonna
5:1 Century
6:1 Lakeville N

I still see the section as wide open, but I’m adding Century back because the others have struggled so. It is possible the representative at state had a losing regular season record.

SECTION 2
2:3 Edina
4:1 Burnsville
5:1 Jefferson
9:1 Holy Angels

Odds unchanged since last update. History shows that #1 seeds make it out of sections 62.5% of the time. While Edina has a loss, nobody here is as good as Benilde and the Hornets seem to consistently dispatch teams they should.

SECTION 3
3:2 Rosemount
2:1 Eastview
3:1 Woodbury
12:1 C-DH

We’ve got a little more clarity now and Cretin has less chance than previously thought. I’m dropping Eagan, Hastings, and Apple Valley from consideration.

SECTION 4
1:2 Hill-Murray
4:1 White Bear Lake
5:1 Roseville

Not much change here since last month. I’m dropping Tartan, Stillwater, and Mounds View from consideration.

SECTION 5
Even Centennial
Even Blaine
15:1 Osseo
18:1 Maple Grove

Still a two-horse race. If a third team makes the section final they’ll be a big ‘dog.

SECTION 6
5:4 Minnetonka
5:4 Benilde-St. Margaret's
5:1 Eden Prairie

My comments four weeks ago: The state's toughest section. Hopkins is about to come down to earth. Two games with Edina and another with Minnetonka await. I don't see them beating Wayzata twice either. I’m dropping Hopkins and Wayzata from consideration and shortening the odds on Tonka and B-SM.

SECTION 7
3:2 Duluth East
3:2 Anoka
3:1 Grand Rapids

Still a doozy, I’m dropping Elk River, Forest Lake, and Andover from consideration. Cloquet is not the threat I’d thought, so I’m dropping them too. Biggest mover is Anoka; they’ve got a great shot.

SECTION 8
1:5 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead

I’m giving up hope that Buffalo or Brainerd could catch lightning in a bottle and now call this a two-horse race.

updated 2/4

[Neutron 14]

I'm thinking you nailed it. Blaine should have a leg up on Centennial though.

[wbmd]

SECTION 6
5:4 Minnetonka
5:4 Benilde-St. Margaret's
5:1 Eden Prairie

My comments four weeks ago: The state's toughest section. Hopkins is about to come down to earth. Two games with Edina and another with Minnetonka await. I don't see them beating Wayzata twice either. I’m dropping Hopkins and Wayzata from consideration and shortening the odds on Tonka and B-SM.

Hopkins only has one game left with Edina and they are done with Minnetonka for the regular season.

Besides Edina, they also have Armstrong, Wayzata and Buffalo on their schedule.

[elliott70]

What's the odds of the Florida-boy making it to the HS tournament,
A or AA?

[tomASS]

What are Chaska's chances in section 2???

would I be better off buying a lottery ticket or doesn't your equation calculate odds of that magnitude??

[whatitdobaby]

What's the odds of the Florida-boy making it to the HS tournament,
A or AA?

Who's the Florida-boy?

[O-townClown]

Hopkins only has one game left with Edina and they are done with Minnetonka for the regular season.

Besides Edina, they also have Armstrong, Wayzata and Buffalo on their schedule.

Yes.

[elliott70]

What's the odds of the Florida-boy making it to the HS tournament,
A or AA?

Who's the Florida-boy?

O-town clown, originally from Edina, now resides in Orlando with his family.
His son plays AAA mites, not by choice, but that's what they have.
Otown posts a lot on the youth hockey board and I guess I read a lot of it.

[O-townClown]

What's the odds of the Florida-boy making it to the HS tournament,
A or AA?

Elliott, I've got to be in Minnesota sometime soon for work and looked into maybe getting up there for Sectionals. Not sure if my client will be ready to see me so soon.

I'm going to be in Dallas for work the weekend of the state tournament. I need someone to hook up a slingbox for me!!

Thanks for checking in on me, the extent of my live HS viewing this year may be just the Brainerd-Edina blowout when their best player sat out his suspension. Loved the FSN game the other night and I've loaded up on MFH games.

[O-townClown]

His son plays AAA mites, not by choice, but that's what they have.
Otown posts a lot on the youth hockey board and I guess I read a lot of it.

AAA Mites!? He's got a hockey-age of 5!! Turned 6, but he's got that coveted January birthday. He played full Mites this fall and is now in a cross-ice Mini-Mite program for the winter.

His DREAM is to play "AAA Travel" - sounds very cute when he says it - and we'll see if he burns out before next fall. He's doing great, but you're a little ahead of him!

[elliott70]

His son plays AAA mites, not by choice, but that's what they have.
Otown posts a lot on the youth hockey board and I guess I read a lot of it.

AAA Mites!? He's got a hockey-age of 5!! Turned 6, but he's got that coveted January birthday. He played full Mites this fall and is now in a cross-ice Mini-Mite program for the winter.

His DREAM is to play "AAA Travel" - sounds very cute when he says it - and we'll see if he burns out before next fall. He's doing great, but you're a little ahead of him!

I just figured he took after his dad and was flying to CA every other weekend.

[elliott70]

What's the odds of the Florida-boy making it to the HS tournament,
A or AA?

Elliott, I've got to be in Minnesota sometime soon for work and looked into maybe getting up there for Sectionals. Not sure if my client will be ready to see me so soon.

I'm going to be in Dallas for work the weekend of the state tournament. I need someone to hook up a slingbox for me!!

Thanks for checking in on me, the extent of my live HS viewing this year may be just the Brainerd-Edina blowout when their best player sat out his suspension. Loved the FSN game the other night and I've loaded up on MFH games.

I may be in the cities for section finals, if I am I try to go to Mariucci.
Two great games and lots of good beer and burger places within a few blocks.

[O-townClown]

I just figured he took after his dad and was flying to CA every other weekend.

Money.


Cars.


Women.


WHOOOOOOOH!!!!!!!

[PASTRAPIDSFAN]

Looks good you nailed it.

[tomASS]

I like O-town's signature line

That would make Elliot about 35 years old

[Can't Never Tried]

I like O-town's signature line

That would make Elliot about 35 years old

A little light yet tomASS

[packerboy]

Do they have flannel shirts in Florida?

[STEV16]

This is very well done. Thanks for doing it. You nailed it

[Duluth 4]

east tied with anoka? really i havent seen anoka play this year. what are the relient on?

[SEMinnHockeyNut]

O-town - Nice work...I have enjoyed watching your updates. Section 1AA is weak, but it is interesting. I look forward to another update about Feb. 18th or so.