Edit: According to the Big Nine's website Century has now forfieted their game to Faribault, probably negating any seeding implications the Mayo/Century game had. It's still big for momentum but I don't see anyway Century will pass Mayo and get a #4 seed now.
But what if Century beats Mayo for the 2nd time? Wouldn't winning the season series 2 games to 1 make Century the 4th seed? Or is it all about standings for the Big Nine teams? Should it be like youth hockey where we count total goals?
Did I not say in several posts this year that I was very surprised Mayo was seeded ahead of LS last year? And did I know base that on the head to head match-up they had?
BTW I am not the only one who changes his tune from time to time. Go back and read your own posts. Bottom line is LN lost to LS a team Mayo tied (without some key guys). LN lost to Chaska a less than mediorce team according to the power rankings you love so much. LN got blitzed by Hibbing a team Mayo blitzed, which head to head does matter.
Mayo beat a team that is very good last night - a team rated higher than half of the Lake Conference teams and ALL of the 1AA teams.
And to the average hockey fan, most don't realize that Mayo has been w/out their best defensive defenseman for several games - a guy who rarely gets scored on.
As far as last year's games, maybe Kasson gave Century the best game of anyone. I don't know, I did not see them all. All I know is that nobody was in Century's class last year.
And at some point, please recoginize that my main point on seeding - the coaches determine them, not us, and sometimes they seed based upon other observations than the points you make.
Also, did you notice Mayo has 14 wins now? Remember when you said there was no way anyone besides Owatonna would get 14 wins in this section?
New 1 AA section seedings
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
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CrossbarandIn99
- Posts: 370
- Joined: Tue Nov 28, 2006 11:12 pm
- Location: Burnsville
if you were in charge of seedings...how would you seed the top 5 (as of today)SEMinnHockeyNut wrote:Edit: According to the Big Nine's website Century has now forfieted their game to Faribault, probably negating any seeding implications the Mayo/Century game had. It's still big for momentum but I don't see anyway Century will pass Mayo and get a #4 seed now.
But what if Century beats Mayo for the 2nd time? Wouldn't winning the season series 2 games to 1 make Century the 4th seed? Or is it all about standings for the Big Nine teams? Should it be like youth hockey where we count total goals?
Did I not say in several posts this year that I was very surprised Mayo was seeded ahead of LS last year? And did I know base that on the head to head match-up they had?
BTW I am not the only one who changes his tune from time to time. Go back and read your own posts. Bottom line is LN lost to LS a team Mayo tied (without some key guys). LN lost to Chaska a less than mediorce team according to the power rankings you love so much. LN got blitzed by Hibbing a team Mayo blitzed, which head to head does matter.
Mayo beat a team that is very good last night - a team rated higher than half of the Lake Conference teams and ALL of the 1AA teams.
And to the average hockey fan, most don't realize that Mayo has been w/out their best defensive defenseman for several games - a guy who rarely gets scored on.
As far as last year's games, maybe Kasson gave Century the best game of anyone. I don't know, I did not see them all. All I know is that nobody was in Century's class last year.
And at some point, please recoginize that my main point on seeding - the coaches determine them, not us, and sometimes they seed based upon other observations than the points you make.
Also, did you notice Mayo has 14 wins now? Remember when you said there was no way anyone besides Owatonna would get 14 wins in this section?
If you follow years past as a guide it usually works out that conference standings and head to head are the key to seedings, overall record doesn't factor in much, either does who's playing the best. Also no Lakeville school will be #1. If you look back at Lee's and cross referece it with Nadeau's site you'll see the Big Nine teams have been seeded straight by conference standings over those years. That puts them Owatonna, Mayo, Century, Winona, and JM.
If I had to predict the seedings:
1-Owatonna
2-South
3-North
4-Mayo
5-Century
6-Farmington
7-Winona
8-JM
9-DC
If I seeded them:
1-South
2-North
3-Mayo
4-Owatonna
5-Farmington
6-Century - penalized for forfeiting, it may make a huge difference for Faribault
7-Winona
8-JM
9-DC
If I had to predict the seedings:
1-Owatonna
2-South
3-North
4-Mayo
5-Century
6-Farmington
7-Winona
8-JM
9-DC
If I seeded them:
1-South
2-North
3-Mayo
4-Owatonna
5-Farmington
6-Century - penalized for forfeiting, it may make a huge difference for Faribault
7-Winona
8-JM
9-DC
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eagle4life9
- Posts: 462
- Joined: Sat Oct 13, 2007 2:28 am
We can sit here and make all the predictions we want but like SEMinnHockNut said its the coaches that decide. And is that fair? Probably not because has Randy Schmitz or Kurt Weber seen anyone in the section play other than Century, Mayo and North/South respectively, probably not. And has the DC coach seen either of the Lakeville teams play? I doubt it unless he took a long drive. The way the seedings are usually doesnt make a difference. With 5 (maybe 6) teams that COULD win this section I dont think it matters where your seeded. The only reason you would want a higher seed is if you get stuck in the 5 or the 6, especially if your a Rochester school because that might mean a long drive to Lakeville. After that, all the games are at RCC and the final four teams will be SO even that the only thing the seed will determine is what color each team wears.
Now that the season is pretty much over in terms of this section (coaches submit there rankings by 2:00pm Saturday so Saturday's games wont even be considered), I say we start predicting final fours and championship games and champs
Semis
Mayo vs South
North vs Owatonna
Finals
North vs South
Champ-South
Now that the season is pretty much over in terms of this section (coaches submit there rankings by 2:00pm Saturday so Saturday's games wont even be considered), I say we start predicting final fours and championship games and champs
Semis
Mayo vs South
North vs Owatonna
Finals
North vs South
Champ-South
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CrossbarandIn99
- Posts: 370
- Joined: Tue Nov 28, 2006 11:12 pm
- Location: Burnsville
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natedog228
- Posts: 73
- Joined: Thu Feb 15, 2007 12:35 am
- Location: Farmington, MN
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PowerPlay™
- Posts: 36
- Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:34 pm
I will make a sick Predic:
1. South
2. Mayo
3. North
4. Owatonna
5. Century
6. Farmington
7. etc.
Why: Cause the coaches at the top know who are the best teams and will rank accordingly. Where the wrench gets thrown in is with the numbskull coaches at the bottom of the list(mentioned as the "etc." group) pull a bunch of crap to get a different game for the first round. They either want a more favorable matchup for themselves in terms of their play in game, or if they win that who they get in the quarters, or even, where they would end up traveling for the quarters. i.e. If I am Winona, I would rather travel to Rochester for a game than Lakeville or Owatonna(long as heck trip). They know the odds of losing are good, so shorten up the trip and make the pain last a little less time.
1. South
2. Mayo
3. North
4. Owatonna
5. Century
6. Farmington
7. etc.
Why: Cause the coaches at the top know who are the best teams and will rank accordingly. Where the wrench gets thrown in is with the numbskull coaches at the bottom of the list(mentioned as the "etc." group) pull a bunch of crap to get a different game for the first round. They either want a more favorable matchup for themselves in terms of their play in game, or if they win that who they get in the quarters, or even, where they would end up traveling for the quarters. i.e. If I am Winona, I would rather travel to Rochester for a game than Lakeville or Owatonna(long as heck trip). They know the odds of losing are good, so shorten up the trip and make the pain last a little less time.
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rochcentury908
- Posts: 78
- Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2007 9:43 pm
So a lot seems to still be riding on this game tonight...
If Mayo wins, they have a really good argument for 2nd. They've had their ups and downs, but the fact remains they've beaten Owatonna (their only 1AA loss) and tied Lakeville South, and they'd be on a 6 game winning streak. Century would probably drop to 5th and would travel to Lakeville or Owatonna next Thursday.
If Century wins, they'll have 3rd at best. There really isn't a fantastic argument for putting them above Lakeville North, if anything, North has the schedule strength edge. Century and Lakeville North have the same record against common opponents (lost to South + Rosemount, beat Apple Valley + Mayo). So a Century victory would put them at 3rd or 4th, but what would we do with Mayo? Yeah, Century beat them twice, but they tied the 1 seed and beat the 2 seed. I would say that Century could pick up the 3rd seed (which an 8-14-1 record doesn't deserve...) and Mayo could pull 4th or 5th depending on how the coaches feel about them and North.
So here's what it'd look like
Mayo victory:
1. South
2. Mayo
3. Owatonna
4. Lakeville North
5. Century
6. Farmington
7. Winona
8. John Marshall
9. Dodge County
Century victory:
1. South
2. Owatonna
3. Century
4. Mayo
5. North
6. Farmington
7. Winona
8. JM
9. Dodge County
If Mayo wins, they have a really good argument for 2nd. They've had their ups and downs, but the fact remains they've beaten Owatonna (their only 1AA loss) and tied Lakeville South, and they'd be on a 6 game winning streak. Century would probably drop to 5th and would travel to Lakeville or Owatonna next Thursday.
If Century wins, they'll have 3rd at best. There really isn't a fantastic argument for putting them above Lakeville North, if anything, North has the schedule strength edge. Century and Lakeville North have the same record against common opponents (lost to South + Rosemount, beat Apple Valley + Mayo). So a Century victory would put them at 3rd or 4th, but what would we do with Mayo? Yeah, Century beat them twice, but they tied the 1 seed and beat the 2 seed. I would say that Century could pick up the 3rd seed (which an 8-14-1 record doesn't deserve...) and Mayo could pull 4th or 5th depending on how the coaches feel about them and North.
So here's what it'd look like
Mayo victory:
1. South
2. Mayo
3. Owatonna
4. Lakeville North
5. Century
6. Farmington
7. Winona
8. John Marshall
9. Dodge County
Century victory:
1. South
2. Owatonna
3. Century
4. Mayo
5. North
6. Farmington
7. Winona
8. JM
9. Dodge County
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Lucia4President
- Posts: 914
- Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2007 3:01 am
- Location: Duluth
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PowerPlay™
- Posts: 36
- Joined: Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:34 pm
Here are my seed predictions as of today 2/15/08:
Lakeville South 11-10-3 (source: MaxPreps)
Owatonna 17-6-0 (source: Big 9 website)
Mayo 14-10-1 (source: Big 9 website)
Lakeville North 6-15-3 (source: MaxPreps)
Century 8-14-1 (source: Big 9 website)
Farmington/Randolph 7-18-0 (source: MaxPreps)
Winona 12-12-0 (source: Big 9 website)
Dodge County 4-16-2 (source: PS2 Rankings)
JM 4-20-0 (source: Big 9 website)
How I did it:
First, you take the Big Nine Standings and place the AA teams according to that.
Next, you slide the non-Big 9 teams into the picture with most consideration on overall record, then head to head.
I know you will argue that Lakeville North beat Mayo and they play in the all-mighty Lake Conference, but you just CAN'T put a 6-15-3 team ahead of a team with 14 wins. Next argument is because Century beat Mayo twice they should be ahead of Mayo. Nope...reason #1, intra-city game, throw out everything, its anybody's game...reason #2, history says that the seeds will follow the Big 9 standings as far as how the Big 9 teams are seeded...reason #3, their records.
With that said, here are my playoff predictions:
Play in game-
JM vs DC = JM wins
quarters-
JM vs LS = LS wins
Owatonna vs Winona = Owatonna Wins
Mayo vs Farm = Mayo wins
LN vs Century = LN wins
semis-
Owatonna vs LN = LN wins
LS vs Mayo = Mayo wins
finals-
LN vs Mayo = Mayo wins
Time will tell, but I think I am pretty close on this one.
Lakeville South 11-10-3 (source: MaxPreps)
Owatonna 17-6-0 (source: Big 9 website)
Mayo 14-10-1 (source: Big 9 website)
Lakeville North 6-15-3 (source: MaxPreps)
Century 8-14-1 (source: Big 9 website)
Farmington/Randolph 7-18-0 (source: MaxPreps)
Winona 12-12-0 (source: Big 9 website)
Dodge County 4-16-2 (source: PS2 Rankings)
JM 4-20-0 (source: Big 9 website)
How I did it:
First, you take the Big Nine Standings and place the AA teams according to that.
Next, you slide the non-Big 9 teams into the picture with most consideration on overall record, then head to head.
I know you will argue that Lakeville North beat Mayo and they play in the all-mighty Lake Conference, but you just CAN'T put a 6-15-3 team ahead of a team with 14 wins. Next argument is because Century beat Mayo twice they should be ahead of Mayo. Nope...reason #1, intra-city game, throw out everything, its anybody's game...reason #2, history says that the seeds will follow the Big 9 standings as far as how the Big 9 teams are seeded...reason #3, their records.
With that said, here are my playoff predictions:
Play in game-
JM vs DC = JM wins
quarters-
JM vs LS = LS wins
Owatonna vs Winona = Owatonna Wins
Mayo vs Farm = Mayo wins
LN vs Century = LN wins
semis-
Owatonna vs LN = LN wins
LS vs Mayo = Mayo wins
finals-
LN vs Mayo = Mayo wins
Time will tell, but I think I am pretty close on this one.
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hockiepuck
- Posts: 35
- Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:16 am
NO WAY, MAYO WILL WIN. Did you see the game last night against Century?? NO WAY ! ! !PowerPlay™ wrote:Here are my seed predictions as of today 2/15/08:
Lakeville South 11-10-3 (source: MaxPreps)
Owatonna 17-6-0 (source: Big 9 website)
Mayo 14-10-1 (source: Big 9 website)
Lakeville North 6-15-3 (source: MaxPreps)
Century 8-14-1 (source: Big 9 website)
Farmington/Randolph 7-18-0 (source: MaxPreps)
Winona 12-12-0 (source: Big 9 website)
Dodge County 4-16-2 (source: PS2 Rankings)
JM 4-20-0 (source: Big 9 website)
How I did it:
First, you take the Big Nine Standings and place the AA teams according to that.
Next, you slide the non-Big 9 teams into the picture with most consideration on overall record, then head to head.
I know you will argue that Lakeville North beat Mayo and they play in the all-mighty Lake Conference, but you just CAN'T put a 6-15-3 team ahead of a team with 14 wins. Next argument is because Century beat Mayo twice they should be ahead of Mayo. Nope...reason #1, intra-city game, throw out everything, its anybody's game...reason #2, history says that the seeds will follow the Big 9 standings as far as how the Big 9 teams are seeded...reason #3, their records.
With that said, here are my playoff predictions:
Play in game-
JM vs DC = JM wins
quarters-
JM vs LS = LS wins
Owatonna vs Winona = Owatonna Wins
Mayo vs Farm = Mayo wins
LN vs Century = LN wins
semis-
Owatonna vs LN = LN wins
LS vs Mayo = Mayo wins
finals-
LN vs Mayo = Mayo wins
Time will tell, but I think I am pretty close on this one.
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Spartanfan1
- Posts: 98
- Joined: Wed Feb 14, 2007 9:35 pm
- Location: Rochester, Minnesota
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frederick61
- Posts: 1039
- Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:54 pm
You might checkout minnesota-scores.net if you aren’t already aware of the site. It had the 7AA seeds and the 8AA seeds fairly close. In 7AA, the site had Duluth East #1, Anoka #2, Cloquet #3 (ended up #4), Grand Rapids #4 (ended up #3), Forest Lake #5 (ended up #6), Elk River #6 (ended up #5), Andover #7, Cambridge Isanti #8 and St. Francis #9. In 8AA the site had Roseau #1, Moorhead #2, Brainerd #3, Buffalo #4, St. Cloud Tech #5, Northern Lakes #6 (ended up #7), Monticello #7 (ended up #6), Becker/Big Lake #8 (ended up #9), and River Lakes #9 (ended up #8).
For Section 1AA, the site has Owatonna #1, Mayo #2, Lakeville South #3, Century #4, Lakeville North #5, Farmington #6, Winona #7, Dodge County #8 and Marshall #9. The site uses its own math to calculate the relative ratings the teams. According to the site, the top four teams in this section are closely ranked to each other (#33, #41, #42, and #44), but are not ranked very high state wide.
The site ranks all the Minnesota high school teams not just hockey (boys and girls basketball, football, volleyball, etc) plus college football.
For Section 1AA, the site has Owatonna #1, Mayo #2, Lakeville South #3, Century #4, Lakeville North #5, Farmington #6, Winona #7, Dodge County #8 and Marshall #9. The site uses its own math to calculate the relative ratings the teams. According to the site, the top four teams in this section are closely ranked to each other (#33, #41, #42, and #44), but are not ranked very high state wide.
The site ranks all the Minnesota high school teams not just hockey (boys and girls basketball, football, volleyball, etc) plus college football.
*JM beat Dodge County, no way DC gets seeded in front of JM. They both have four wins but JM played a significantly tougher schedule along with beating Dodge County.
*According to www.big9.org the Century @ Faribault game was cancelled, not a forfeit. Century played 1 four point game less than Mayo in the conference and finished four points behind Mayo. A forfeit counts in the standings a game not played doesn't.
* Given that Century beat Mayo twice, Mayo should get seeded behind Century. Also there is probably no way Mayo gets seeded in front of two teams they went 1-3 against, I can see one but not both, that would make head to head virtually meaningless. Had Mayo swept Owatonna, or beaten either of the Lakeville schools then they have a good argument for a seed higher than 4 or 5, but they're the only team of the top 5 that didn't win a season series or single game if that was the case against any of the other top 4 teams. Overall any argument for putting Mayo in the top 4 is weak, on the ice they never showed they were better than the other 4.
* South ends the year with at worst a .500 record, Owatonna had running time put on them by two class A schools, Lakeville South had running time put on them early in the year by 2 top 10 AA schools. South should be the top seed, however South tied @ Mayo, and only beat Century 3-2 @ home showing the difference between the 1 ad 5 seeds isn't very much.
*According to www.big9.org the Century @ Faribault game was cancelled, not a forfeit. Century played 1 four point game less than Mayo in the conference and finished four points behind Mayo. A forfeit counts in the standings a game not played doesn't.
* Given that Century beat Mayo twice, Mayo should get seeded behind Century. Also there is probably no way Mayo gets seeded in front of two teams they went 1-3 against, I can see one but not both, that would make head to head virtually meaningless. Had Mayo swept Owatonna, or beaten either of the Lakeville schools then they have a good argument for a seed higher than 4 or 5, but they're the only team of the top 5 that didn't win a season series or single game if that was the case against any of the other top 4 teams. Overall any argument for putting Mayo in the top 4 is weak, on the ice they never showed they were better than the other 4.
* South ends the year with at worst a .500 record, Owatonna had running time put on them by two class A schools, Lakeville South had running time put on them early in the year by 2 top 10 AA schools. South should be the top seed, however South tied @ Mayo, and only beat Century 3-2 @ home showing the difference between the 1 ad 5 seeds isn't very much.
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DickTrickle
- Posts: 79
- Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2007 10:39 pm
Dont get me wrong.....i like the fact that u think mayo will make it 2 state.....i think they will to.......if they start to play like they were more towards the begging/early middle of the year......But theres no way in hck that they will make it past the 1st round if they play like they did the other night..........PowerPlay™ wrote:Here are my seed predictions as of today 2/15/08:
Lakeville South 11-10-3 (source: MaxPreps)
Owatonna 17-6-0 (source: Big 9 website)
Mayo 14-10-1 (source: Big 9 website)
Lakeville North 6-15-3 (source: MaxPreps)
Century 8-14-1 (source: Big 9 website)
Farmington/Randolph 7-18-0 (source: MaxPreps)
Winona 12-12-0 (source: Big 9 website)
Dodge County 4-16-2 (source: PS2 Rankings)
JM 4-20-0 (source: Big 9 website)
How I did it:
First, you take the Big Nine Standings and place the AA teams according to that.
Next, you slide the non-Big 9 teams into the picture with most consideration on overall record, then head to head.
I know you will argue that Lakeville North beat Mayo and they play in the all-mighty Lake Conference, but you just CAN'T put a 6-15-3 team ahead of a team with 14 wins. Next argument is because Century beat Mayo twice they should be ahead of Mayo. Nope...reason #1, intra-city game, throw out everything, its anybody's game...reason #2, history says that the seeds will follow the Big 9 standings as far as how the Big 9 teams are seeded...reason #3, their records.
With that said, here are my playoff predictions:
Play in game-
JM vs DC = JM wins
quarters-
JM vs LS = LS wins
Owatonna vs Winona = Owatonna Wins
Mayo vs Farm = Mayo wins
LN vs Century = LN wins
semis-
Owatonna vs LN = LN wins
LS vs Mayo = Mayo wins
finals-
LN vs Mayo = Mayo wins
Time will tell, but I think I am pretty close on this one.