Peewee A Regional Forecast

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frederick61
Posts: 1039
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:54 pm

Peewee A Regional Forecast

Post by frederick61 »

Most of the teams this week are tuning up for the District playoffs as the regular season is winding down. With district playoffs starting this weekend, I have summarized the potential district winners, their seeds and have shown the four potential Regional pools (two pools in each region, Red and Blue) and the potential order of games played in each pool.

The following teams appear to have the best shot at their district seeds:
D1-#1 Mpls Park, #2 Irondale, and #3 Highland (Washburn can contend)
D2-#1 North St. Paul, #2 Roseville, and #3 Moundsville (5 other teams contending)
D3-#1 Wayzata, #2 Maple Grove, and #3 Hopkins
D4-#1 Faribault and #2 New Prague
D5-#1 Mound Westonka and #2 Buffalo (Sartell and River Lakes contending)
D6-#1 Eden Prairie, #2 Edina and #3 Apple Valley (5 other teams contending)
D8-#1 Woodbury and #2 Eagan
D10-#1 Coon Rapids and #2 (seven other teams contending)
D11-#1 Cloquet, #2 Duluth East and #3 Hermantown
D12-#1 Grand Rapids, #2 Virginia and #3 Hibbing
D15-#1 Little Falls, #2 Fergus Falls and #3 Brainerd (Regional Host)-Moorhead contending
D16-#1 Roseau, #2 EGF and #3 TRF (Crookston could contend)

North Region (at Cloquet Feb 29 to March 2): The three districts in the North Region are D10 (two seeds), D11 (three seeds), and D12 (three seeds). The D10 playoff is at Andover (with finals at Anoka) starting Feb 17th and ending Feb 24th. The D11 playoff is at Two Harbors starting Feb 16th and ending either Feb 19th or Feb 21st. The D12 playoff is Eveleth Feb 15th to Feb 17th. Seven of the eight seeds are heavily favored to make the North Region. They are D10-Coon Rapids (guaranteed) and the three seeds from D11 and D12 listed below. Only the other D10 seed is contested for this years North Region.

Based on the above potential district seeds, the North Region Red and Blue pools is listed below:

Red Pool:
Coon Rapids plays Virginia/Duluth East/Hermantown
Virginia plays Coon Rapids/Hermantown/Duluth East
Duluth East plays Hermantown/Coon Rapids/Virginia
Hermantown plays Duluth East/Virginia/Coon Rapids
Blue Pool:
Cloquet plays #2 D10 seed/Grand Rapids/Hibbing
#2 D10 seed plays Cloquet/Hibbing/Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids plays Hibbing/Cloquet/#2 D10 seed
Hibbing plays Grand Rapids/#2 D10/Cloquet

Coon Rapids may not end up with the #1 D10 seed, they would have to win the playoffs. They would then become the #2 D10 seed above. The #1 D11 seeded is likely to be contended between Cloquet and Duluth East, but as of this week, Cloquet is playing better. Hermantown could take a higher seed, but they would have to beat Cloquet in the opener of the D11 playoffs to get there.

The top team in the Red Pool plays the #2 team in the Blue Pool for the #1 seed to the state. The top team in the Blue Pool plays the #2 team in the Red Pool for the #2 team in the state. This is the same for each Region.

East Region (at St. Louis Park Feb 29 to March 2): The three districts in the East Region are D8 (two seeds), D3 (three seeds), and D2 (three seeds). The D10 playoff is at Hastings starting Feb 17th and ending Feb 24th. The D3 playoff is at New Hope starting Feb 17th and ending either Feb 24th. The D2 playoff is mostly at Tartan except for the all second round games that are at Stillwater Feb 16th to Feb 24th. The D8 playoffs will be a donnybrook so its all a toss up with six or more teams having a chance to take one of the two seeds. The top two D3 playoffs are fairly set with Wayzata and Maple Grove although both team have been pushed in league competition in the past two weeks. The D2 playoff has eight teams and eight possible winners (30% of all the D2 league games have ended in ties) and are anybody’s guess. Assuming the District winners are as listed above, then the East Pool play is:

Red Pool:
North St. Paul plays Maple Grove/Eagan/Moundsview
Maple Grove plays North St. Paul/Moundsview/Eagan
Eagan plays Moundsview/North St. Paul/Maple Grove
Moundsview plays Eagan/Maple Grove/North St. Paul
Blue Pool:
Wayzata plays Roseville/Woodbury/Hopkins
Roseville plays Wayzata/Hopkins/Woodbury
Woodbury plays Hopkins/Wayzata/Roseville
Hopkins plays Woodbury/Roseville/Wayzata

The teams and seedings in the East Region are wide open. As has been said here many times before, this is a tough region. The toughest to predict is D2 with the teams being even. The D2 seeds are not going to mean much. A #1 seed playing a #8 does not guarantee anything in this district. Woodbury owns the #1 seed and Eagan has the #2 seed in the district playoffs, but unlike most other district playoffs with double elimination, they have to win three games to make it to the Regionals. With competition from the Lakevilles, the Rochesters, and Sibley the D8 playoffs will be fierce this year. Only D3 appears to have two top teams in Wayzata and Maple Grove and those teams will likely make the East Region.



South Region (at Chaska Feb 29 to March 2): The three districts in the East Region are D6 (three seeds), D5 (two seeds), and D1 (three seeds). The D6 playoff is at Apple Valley starting Feb 9th and ending Feb 17th. The D6 playoff is a six team double elimination with three teams vying for the #6 seed. The D4 playoff is at St. Peter/LeSeuer Feb 15th to Feb 17th. There will be a two game playin for the 7th and 8th seeds. The quarterfinals are single elimination. The quarterfinal winners will play for the two seeds. The D1 playoffs are at Biff Adams Arena Feb 17th through Feb 23rd and the finals at HN Feb 23rd and Feb 24th. The D1 playoffs are six team double elimination playoffs with four of the six fighting it out for the three seeds. Assuming the winners are as listed above, then the best guess on the South Pool play is:

Red Pool:
Faribault plays Edina/Apple Valley/Irondale
Edina plays Faribault/Irondale/Apple Valley
Irondale plays Apple Valley/Edina/Faribault
Apple Valley plays Irondale/Faribault/Edina
Blue Pool:
Eden Prairie plays New Prague/Mpls Park/Highland
New Prague plays Eden Prairie/Highland/Mpls Park
Mpls Park plays Highland/Eden Prairie/New Prague
Highland plays Mpls Park/New Prague/Eden Prairie

The D4 playoffs have put the top two seeds listed here in the same bracket (#1 Faribault and #4 New Prague) and these teams will likely meet in the semifinals forcing the loser to play one extra game against either the #2 Seed Mankota or #3 Luverne. The loser of the Faribault/New Prague game may not advance. Washburn could have a strong D1 playoff and knock one of the top three D1 teams out. In D6, there will be six tough teams fighting it out, but the format favors the top two, Eden Prairie and Edina, advancing. They have earned that edge.


West Region(at Brainerd Feb 29 to March 2): The three districts in the West Region are D5 (two seeds), D15 (three seeds), and D16 (three seeds). The D5 playoff quarterfinals are split between Litchfield and Sartell on Feb 18th . The semifinals and finals are at Hutchinson Feb 23rd and Feb 24th. The D5 regular season championship winner will get a guaranteed seed to the West Region. The remaining nine D5 teams play a single elimination tourney for the other seed. The D15 playoff is at Detroit Lakes starting Feb 15th and ending Feb 17th. The D16 playoff is at Crookston from Feb 15th to Feb 17th.

Assuming the winners are as listed below, then the best guess on the West Pool play is:

Red Pool:
Mound Westonka plays Fergus Falls/EGF/Brainerd
Fergus Falls plays Mound Westonka/Brainerd/EGF
EGF plays Brainerd/Mound Westonka/Fergus Falls
Brainerd plays EGF/Fergus Falls/Mound Westonka
Blue Pool:
Little Falls plays Buffalo/Roseau/TRF
Buffalo plays Little Falls/TRF/Roseau
Roseau plays TRF/Little Falls/Buffalo
TRF plays Roseau/Buffalo/Little Falls

The West Region is dominated by two teams, Little Falls and Roseau. The team with the best chance to take a state seed from either one of these teams is EGF with Mound Westonka and Fergus Falls having an outside chance.
mnticketbroker
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2008 3:12 pm

Post by mnticketbroker »

the winner of district 6 all things equal gets a nice little break into the finals of regions, thus only 1 big game to get to state.
peskycardinal
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2007 1:17 pm

Post by peskycardinal »

Unfortunately they could go 3-0 and lose that one game to a district rival such as Edina vs EP and go home. No double elimination for the 3-0 team!! That's what the coaches dislike about the new format. In D6 where the district playoffs are double elimination the playoff winner often times has to beat the runner up twice to earn the #1 seed. A week later they could have to beat that same team again or their season is over. The old regional format sent district rivals to different regions so this could not happen.
tschoeny
Posts: 19
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:42 pm

Post by tschoeny »

Frederick61,

First of all let me start by saying thank you for a great job at keeping us all posted on Pewee hockey across the state,

One thing I did want to bring to your attention is that in District 15 Brainard does not get a automatic birth in regions. They changed that last year I believe. If you go to ther website http://www.district15hockey.org/ and go to the past minutes fall of 2007 you will find the following:


District Tournament format

A LEVEL – double elimination

District #1 seed automatic birth to regional, play in to determine seeding, motion by Moorhead, second by Brainerd, motion carried

B LEVEL – Bantam single elimination top 4 to B1 and bottom 4 to B2

Pee Wee single elimination the bottom 4 teams on the East and the West go to the B2, play in game on the East, motion by Long Prairie, second by Morris, motion carried



PWB1, PWA, Bantam A, and Bantam B1 – three teams will advance to regionals, no automatic births to regional



Motion by Alexandria, you must have a declared team at that level to Host a District Tournament, second by Brainerd. Roll call vote 4 yes and 11 no, motion defeated. (yes votes, Alexandria, Brainerd, Fergus Falls & Little Falls)

Once again thanks for all your hard work on this message board.

Tschoeny
Mr. Bo Dangles
Posts: 147
Joined: Mon Dec 18, 2006 2:47 pm

Post by Mr. Bo Dangles »

I would think that would make it tough for BRD to get in. Although they may be pretty even with Moorhead. I have not seen Alex or DL. They are not as good as LF or FF.
frederick61
Posts: 1039
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:54 pm

Post by frederick61 »

"tschoeny". Thank you for the kind words and for pointing out the situation with Brainerd. Since Brainerd has no automatic seed, then that opens the door for Moorhead. The Spuds started out well in the season and then went into a funk. I saw them play early in the season and thought they were a solid team and I saw them at the St. Cloud Tourney in January and they were not the same team. It showed. They did not have a good tourney. But since then, they seem to be playing better. It will be interesting to see how well they do in the D15 playoffs.
southernhockey1
Posts: 131
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2007 7:46 am

Post by southernhockey1 »

Fred-

Any update on your previous post/forecast?
frederick61
Posts: 1039
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2007 1:54 pm

Post by frederick61 »

southernhockey1 wrote:Fred-

Any update on your previous post/forecast?
I plan to post an update Monday.
DKS1962
Posts: 112
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:38 pm

Post by DKS1962 »

Frederick 61
District 15 Championship Game
Little Falls 4
Moorhead 1

Last I heard FF, Brainard & Alex were fighting for the final spot.
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