Peewee A Regional Forecast (Feb 18)

[frederick61]

The District playoffs are more then half over. The following teams have won these seeds in their district playoffs as of this Monday.
D1-#1 or 2 Mpls Park or Highland, and #3 Irondale (Washburn and Como contending).
D2-#1 or #2 North St. Paul or White Bear Lake, #3 Roseville (Moundsview and Forest Lake competing).
D4-#1 Faribault and #2 New Prague.
D5-#1 Buffalo (guaranteed #1 seed) but #2 seed is TBD with Mound Westonka (which holds #2 seed in D5 tourney) has to win tonight (Hutchinson), Saturday (Sartell/MAML winner) and Sunday.
D6-#1 Chaska, #2 Edina, #3 Eden Prairie
D10-#1 Coon Rapids has a guaranteed seed and #2 has seven other teams contending.
D11-#1 or #2 Duluth East or Cloquet and #3 Hermantown
D12-#1 Grand Rapids, #2 Virginia* and #3 Hibbing
D15-#1 Little Falls, #2 Moorhead and #3 Fergus Falls
D16-#1 Roseau, #2 EGF and #3 Crookston
*The phantom International Falls A team may have pulled an upset

These two districts are playing key games this week.
D3-#1 Wayzata, #2 Maple Grove, and #3 Hopkins
D8-#1 Woodbury and #2 Eagan

Most of these district playoffs have followed the expected. D1 had an upset with Como making it to the semis, but lost tonight to Mpls Park to fall back to double elimination playback game against Johnson. In D2, White Bear Lake may finally played to its potential by thumping a good Moundsview team 6-0, a team that had beaten them 3-2 three weeks earlier. That victory gets them to the regions, but they still have to prove themselves. They play North St. Paul for the #1 D2 seed next Saturday. NSP beat Roseville 6-3.

D3 will roll with the key semifinal games being played tomorrow at New Hope. Wayzata and Maple Lake should win. Wayzata had a first round bye and plays Armstrong coming off a 3ot 2-1 win over Orono. Maple Grove plays the winner of the Hopkins/North Metro game. The D4 tourney games are not posted, but the seeds are and as expected Faribault came in #1 and New Prague #2.

In D5, the Buffalo win over Mound Westonka at the year end held up and gave the Bison the #1 seed. They do not play in the D5 playoffs, but now Mound Westonka has to win three in a row starting tonight. D6 was over on Thursday, (Valentine’s Day to all the non-hockey people), but torture to the Apple Valley fans as their team got torched 8-2 by Edina to eliminate them. Valley was playing their fourth game in a row and was coming off three straight overtime games including a tough overtime loss to Eden Prairie in a seed game. Chaska was the darling of the tournament, won, but somehow the Edina and Eden Prairie got the better draw (see South Region for explaination).

In D8, Lakeville South had an easy time beating Cottege Grove 6-1 to advance to the all important semifinal game on Friday playing Eagan who beat Rosemount 3-1. In the other semi, Woodbury hung on to beat Hastings 3-2 and advance to play Lakeville North who beat Sibley 4-1. Under the D8 format, all 8 teams are in contention for the two seeds until they lose twice. The D11 playoffs went as expected except Duluth East may take the #1 seed from Cloquet. Hermantown has locked up the #3 seed.

In D12 playoff there is a potential mystery. Grand Rapids has the #1 seed and Hibbing appears to be in with either the #2 or #3 seed, but Virginia may have lost to the Falls, a phantom team because it is not acknowledged on the Falls web site, but has been playing games against other peewee teams. D15 is set with Little Falls taking the #1 seed, Moorhead the #2 seed and Fergus Falls the #3 seed. The only surprise here is Moorhead played well enough to end a bad stretch of games to earn the #2 seed. D16 was also no mystery except TRF failing to make the regions keyed by losing their opening game to LOW as forecasted elsewhere on the site. A second surprise was EGF pushing Roseau in the Championship game before losing 3-2.


North Region (at Cloquet Feb 29 to March 2): The three districts in the North Region are D10 (two seeds), D11 (three seeds), and D12 (three seeds). The D10 playoff has completed their first round. This playoff remains double elimination until Coon Rapids loses. The Rapids won their opener on Sunday beating Andover 2-1 and they play Blaine on Tuesday. If Rapids lose, they will take the #2 seed and Andover, Anoka, Centennial and Champlin Park are eliminated.

If the Rapids win, then these teams playing their next game needing to win to avoid elimination. Rapids will then be in the Championship game on Sunday at 8:00 AM at Anoka. Two very interested teams will be playing next door hoping to beat each other and that either St. Cloud or Elk River will be their opponent for their afternoon game, keeping their playoff hopes alive. It will be a crazy tourney day in D10.

With none of the complexities of D10, D11 was simple, tough, hockey that ended up as predicted except Duluth East is in a strong position to take the #1 seed from Cloquet (#2)
Based on the above potential district seeds, the North Region Red and Blue pools is listed below:

Red Pool:
Coon Rapids plays Cloquet/Virginia?/Hermantown
Cloquet plays Coon Rapids/Hermantown/Virginia?
Virginia? plays Hermantown/Coon Rapids/Cloquet
Hermantown plays Virginia?/Cloquet/Coon Rapids
Blue Pool:
Duluth East plays #2 D10 seed/Grand Rapids/Hibbing
#2 D10 seed plays Duluth/Hibbing/Grand Rapids
Grand Rapids plays Hibbing/Duluth East/#2 D10 seed
Hibbing plays Grand Rapids/#2 D10/Duluth East

It is difficult to project Coon Rapids with the #1 seed. They have not been playing well enough recently to make it out of D10 as the playoff champs. Given that they end up in this pool, they will have played Cloquet before, beating them 6-1; but have the disadvantage of traveling 150 miles to play them in the opening game of the tourney at 10 AM on Friday on their home ice.

They play a second game that day, against Virginia?, and should win that game. But Saturday afternoon, they play Hermantown. The Hawks match-up well with Coon Rapids, playing similar style of game. The Hawks play Virginia?, a team they have beaten before in their opener and should be rested to play Cloquet six hours later. Hermantown and Cloquet could emerge here as the 1 and 2 seeds.

In the Blue Pool, Duluth East has drawn the advantage. They play a single game against the #2 D10 seed on Friday. They then play Grand Rapids Saturday morning, a team they narrowly beat 4-3 in December and Hibbing, a team they beat 6-0 also in December. If they have their power play together, they should emerge with the #1 Blue Pool seed. The #2D10 team should emerge with the second Blue Pool seed. They will be playing Hibbing in their morning game and should be fresher for the afternoon game with Grand Rapids.

The top team in the Red Pool plays the #2 team in the Blue Pool for the #1 seed to the state. The top team in the Blue Pool plays the #2 team in the Red Pool for the #2 team in the state. This is the same for each Region. That means Hermantown as #1 would play #2, the #2D10 seed and Duluth East #1 would play #2 Cloquet for the fourth or fifth time this season. They have lost once or twice. The projection would be #2D10 as North #1 seed and Cloquet as North #2 seed.

East Region (at St. Louis Park Feb 29 to March 2): The three districts in the East Region are D8 (two seeds), D3 (three seeds), and D2 (three seeds). In D2, North St. Paul and White Bear Lake are in the regional with Moundsview or Roseville most likely the third seed. Eagan and Woodbury are still in the running to play each, but have to get by the Lakevilles. D3 playoff key games are tomorrow. Based on the projection the East Region Red and Blue Pool setup looks like this.

Red Pool:
North St. Paul plays Maple Grove/Eagan/Moundsview
Maple Grove plays North St. Paul/Moundsview/Eagan
Eagan plays Moundsview/North St. Paul/Maple Grove
Moundsview plays Eagan/Maple Grove/North St. Paul
Blue Pool:
Wayzata plays White Bear Lake/Woodbury/Hopkins
White Bear Lake plays Wayzata/Hopkins/Woodbury
Woodbury plays Hopkins/Wayzata/White Bear Lake
Hopkins plays Woodbury/White Bear Lake/Wayzata

The real question is which Maple Grove team shows up, the one that got trounced by Mpls Park in the St. Cloud tourney or the one that trounced a tough Minnetonka team. The NSP plays Maple Grove in the morning and could take Maple Grove regardless of which team shows up. But Eagan should be more powerful playing NSP in the second game of the day then the short benched NSP team, leaving the Sunday game between Maple Grove and Eagan as the decider. If Maple Grove wins, it could end in a three way tie between these teams. Goal differential may make the winner. Eagan and NSP should come out 1&2.

In the Blue Pool, White Bear Lake and Hopkins look overly matched and Wayzata and Woodbury should take 1&2. That pits Eagan against Woodbury in a repeat of the what could be the D8 championship game. So toss a coin. I did. It came up heads for Eagan for the #1 East Region seed. In the other game, Wayzata should prevail over a tired, short benched, Polar team for the #2 East Region seed.


South Region (at Chaska Feb 29 to March 2): Despite getting a poor #4 seed that was undeserved, the New Prague team came through in District 4 to take the #2 Seed. As expected, Faribault took the #1 Seed. Both teams worked hard in the closing weeks to improve themselves and it showed by winning these seeds. They will continue working to improve.

In D1 tonight, Mpls Park beat Como 7-2 to gain a D1 seed. Irondale however was upset by Highland 7-5 giving Highland a D1 seed. The three D6 seeds are Chaska #1, Edina #2 and Eden Prairie #3. The South Region Red and Blue pools set up this way.

Red Pool:
Faribault plays Edina/Eden Prairie/Highland
Edina plays Faribault/Highland/Eden Prairie
Highland plays Eden Prairie/Edina/Faribault
Eden Prairie plays Highland/Faribault/Edina
Blue Pool:
Chaska plays New Prague/Mpls Park/Irondale
New Prague plays Chaska/Irondale/Mpls Park
Mpls Park plays Irondale/Chaska/New Prague
Irondale plays Mpls Park/New Prague/Chaska

The Red Pool opens with each team playing two games on Friday, Faribault plays Edina and Highland plays Eden Prairie in the morning and switching in the evening setting up another meeting between Eden Prairie and Edina, but not a life or death game, but rather a game for position coming out of the pool. The winner of this game will get the #2 Blue Pool seed winner to go to state, on the surface, a weaker team. Edina should emerge #1 and Eden Prairie #2.

In the Blue Pool, Chaska should emerge #1, but anyone of the other three teams can emerge as #2 to take on Edina. The favorite here is New Prague, because they are continuing to prepare in this two weeks. That sets up another showdown between Chaska and Eden Prairie on Chaska’s home ice in the other game.

Eden Prairie should prevail because it will be the fourth game in three days and Chaska has not shown the strength to hang in long tourneys where they had to play games daily.

The Edina versus potentially New Prague sets up the one game that I spoke about earlier this season, where a lesser known team has that one chance to win one game to go state. It would be nice if a New Prague could prevail, but Edina should. The South #1 seed should be Edina and the South #2 seed should be Eden Prairie

West Region(at Brainerd Feb 29 to March 2): The three districts in the West Region are D5 (two seeds), D15 (three seeds), and D16 (three seeds). The teams are known except for one, the D5 #2 seed. There are a couple of minor surprises with Moorhead and Crookston making the field. Brainerd did not get an automatic seed, Fergus Falls won the third seed in D15. Crookston took advantage on LOW upsetting TRF and took the #3 seed in D16. This sets up the following pool play.

Red Pool:
Buffalo plays Moorhead/EGF/Fergus Falls
Moorhead plays Buffalo/Fergus Falls/EGF
EGF plays Fergus Falls/Buffalo/Moorhead
Fergus Falls plays EGF/Moorhead/Buffalo
Blue Pool:
Little Falls plays Mound Westonka/Roseau/Crookston
Mound Westonka plays Little Falls/Crookston/Roseau
Roseau plays Crookston/Little Falls/Mound Westonka
Crookston plays Roseau/Mound Westonka/Little Falls

The West Region is dominated by two teams, Little Falls and Roseau. The two teams played each other in the Championship game of the Warroad Tourney a week ago and Roseau won 3-2. They will play each other in the Blue Pool and one will win and one will lose, but neither will knock each other out of the tourney. They will emerge #1 and #2. The winner will likely be the ones that skate best early in the morning. Roseau should be #1.

On the Red Pool side, EGF has beaten all three teams, but also has lost to Fergus Falls earlier in the year. The Green Wave should take #1 and Buffalo with their “Riverboat gambler-style” of defense should take #2. The Green Wave will not take Little Falls however and Roseau will quickly shut down the casino on Buffalo. Little Falls takes the #1 West seed and Roseau takes the #2 West seed.

That sets up a State Tourney opening round as follows:
Little Falls plays Eden Prairie
#2 D10 plays Wayzata
Edina plays Roseau
Eagan plays Cloquet

[Air Force 1]

Thanks Frederick!

[BombofaHockeyMom]

District 12: Grand Rapids, International Falls, Hibbing

[frederick61]

District 12: Grand Rapids, International Falls, Hibbing

I suspected this. Perhaps you know why the team was never posted on the Falls web site and can share some details on the tourney. Virginia was a good team and had recently pushed Chaska before losing 3-2. Every score of any Falls game I saw, they usually lost by double digits. The only team they beat was Eveleth.

[BombofaHockeyMom]

The Falls never keeps up on their website.....so I don't know what is going on there.....anyway.

Grand Rapids is ALWAYS tough. The only team besides Rapids that the Falls didn't beat during the regular season was Virginia. I heard Falls wanted to beat them really bad and just came out flying on Saturday and beat them 6-2. Falls then played Rapids on Sunday for seeds 1 and 2. Rapids just came out flying and I believe the final score was 7 to 0. Which was the closest these two teams were all season. The Falls lost to them in double digits the other times.

I believe the game for third seed between Hibbing and Virginia went in to OT with the win going to Hibbing.

[frederick61]

The Falls never keeps up on their website.....so I don't know what is going on there.....anyway.

Grand Rapids is ALWAYS tough. The only team besides Rapids that the Falls didn't beat during the regular season was Virginia. I heard Falls wanted to beat them really bad and just came out flying on Saturday and beat them 6-2. Falls then played Rapids on Sunday for seeds 1 and 2. Rapids just came out flying and I believe the final score was 7 to 0. Which was the closest these two teams were all season. The Falls lost to them in double digits the other times.

I believe the game for third seed between Hibbing and Virginia went in to OT with the win going to Hibbing.

Thank you for the data. For those Falls fans, their win to get to the regionals was truely an upset. It will be interesting to see how they do in the regionals.

[TTpuckster]

Frederick,

Great job as always.

I have to go with my heart and predict that EGF will make it to state in the West Regionals.

But, good luck to all teams, play hard and have fun.

[frederick61]

This is a mid-week update for those following the district playoffs as of Thurdays, Feb 21st.
In D1, the double eliminations continue tomorrow at BIFF with Washburn playing Irondale and surprise Como playing Johnson. The winners advance to a seed game with the winner of that game guaranteed at least a #3 seed to the South Region. The losers go home. Mpls Park plays Highland for the #1 seed on Saturday at Highland(?).

In D2, Moundsview plays Forest Lake and Tartan plays Roseville in two tough knockout games at Tartan on Friday. Winners advance to a seed game that guarantees the winner at least a #3 seed to the East Region. Losers go home. North St. Paul and White Bear Lake play in the Championship game on Saturday.

In D3, Maple Grove plays Orono and North Metro plays Armstrong tonight at New Hope Arena in knockout games. The winners meet in a seed game where the winner is guaranteed a #3 seed to the East Region. Hopkins, upset winner over Maple Grove (3-1) on Monday, plays Wayzata in the championship game on Saturday.

In D5 seminfinals, Mound Westonka plays Sartell and River Lakes plays Crow River on Saturday in Hutchinson. The winners advance to the playoff finals on Sunday with the winner of that game taking the D5 #2 seed to the West Region. Buffalo as conference champs in regular season have the #1 seed.

In D8 playoffs, eight teams remain with the paring down beginning with tonight’s games in Hastings. Hastings plays Cottage Grove and Rosemount plays Sibley in knockout games with the winners advancing to the next round. The losers go home. Friday, Woodbury plays Lakeville North and Eagan plays Lakeville South in seed games. The winners advance to the championship game on Saturday and will have guaranteed seeds to the East Region. The losers fall back to play tonight’s winners Saturday mid-day in knockout games. The winners of Saturday’s mid-day games play each other Saturday evening in a seeded game. The losers go home.

In D10, Coon Rapids won their semifinal game on Tuesday, beating Blaine 2-0 and assuring all the teams that their remaining games will be played as double elimination. Andover on Tuesday knocked Anoka out of the tourney, 4-3. Tonight St. Cloud plays Elk River in the other semifinal game with the winner advancing to play Coon Rapids on Sunday morning at 8:00 AM at Anoka. The loser plays in the other Saturday knockout game against Andover. The other game tonight is a knockout game pitting Centennial against Champlin Park. The winners of the Saturday knockout games play each other at 7:30 AM Sunday at Anoka with the hope that Coon Rapids can prevail so that their playoff hopes are kept alive

In D11, Cloquet and Duluth East go at it again tonight for the #1 seed. This will be the third game these two teams have played in the D11 playoffs against each other in the past five days. Duluth East won the first game 5-4 and lost the second 4-0. This game result will have significant bearing on the North Regional. A Cloquet win puts Duluth East playing Coon Rapids in the opener on Friday, the 29th at 10:00 and greatly enhances a Coon Rapids (or whoever is the D10 #1 seed) chances to win the Red Pool. Cloquet would move to the Blue Pool and take on the D#2 seed mid-day on Friday. But Hermantown still may have the catbird’s seat in the Red Pool draw.

[netminder.net]

Frederick61 wrote;

Friday, Woodbury plays Lakeville North and Eagan plays Lakeville South in seed games. The winners advance to the championship game on Saturday and will have guaranteed seeds to the East Region.

True in years past, but this season, only the winner of the championship game is gauranteed a spot in regions, the loser of the championship game has to play the winner of the playback bracket to earn a region spot

[frederick61]

Frederick61 wrote;

Friday, Woodbury plays Lakeville North and Eagan plays Lakeville South in seed games. The winners advance to the championship game on Saturday and will have guaranteed seeds to the East Region.

True in years past, but this season, only the winner of the championship game is gauranteed a spot in regions, the loser of the championship game has to play the winner of the playback bracket to earn a region spot

I forgot they only get two seeds. Thanks.

[slapper5]

im picking tomorrow tomorrow night LN over Woodbury LS over Eagan pretty big upsets but north played well against sibley and south played great against cg so watch out for those teams

[netminder.net]

the two top seeds going down to two Lakeville teams? your really going out on a limb. Should be two close games, wish I could be there. Keep us posted.

[slapper5]

no i dont think it will be two teams from lakeville going bc the team that loses in the chip i think will lose in tht last game for the 2nd seed

[DMom]

Frederick, thanks again for keeping all of this straight. All I tried to do was get a Maple Grove vs. Hopkins score posted, and I messed that up (again, who would have thought, way to go Hopkins).

[frederick61]

The Thursday games in D8 District playoffs matched Hastings against Cottage Grove and Sibley against Rosemount. Hastings played at 6:00 and had the home town fans out to support them. I estimated a crowd of about 700 attended that game and it was an exciting one. In D8 playoffs, three 12 minute stop time periods are played.

Hastings and Cottage Grove play even for three periods, regulation ending in a 1-1 tie. The first OT ended in a tie and the ice was cleaned. But two minutes into the second OT, Hasting scored by storming the Cottage Grove net and batting in the winner. In the second game, Sibley took Rosemount 7-2. Sibley’s first line has improved and their center seems to have grown. That happens. There was a private school coach there watching both games. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see some of the Sibley and Hastings players on a private school high school roster in one or two years.

The Friday games matched Woodbury against Lakeville North in the early game and Eagan against Lakeville South in the late game. Woodbury has been on a roll all season, losing just twice and Lakeville North has been struggling the last month of the season winning only two league games.

Both teams came out storming. Woodbury drew first blood, scoring at the 5 minute mark on a shot from the point that hit the upper left corner of the net. The game barely restarted, when Woodbury defense was caught napping as a lone North forward checked the puck lose behind the net and slid the puck under the goalie to tie the game. The game resumed it’s fast pace until North drew a penalty with three minutes left. Woodbury set up in the North zone a minute later and caught one of the North forwards wide on a check, opening the passing lanes-one down low to the right of the net, two to the slot and three bang into the net. The period ended Woodbury up 2-1.

The second period started fast again, but North started to slow giving Woodbury more space and time to operate. Another Woodbury goal was scored at the eight minute mark. That made the score 3-1. It was followed by another short handed goal two minutes later and the final score of the game with just under four minutes remaining. The third period settled down into an even skating affair without another score. Woodbury won 5-1.

Eagan and Lakeville South came out with the same fire, opening a fast skating game with each transitition from one end to the other that was followed by the defending team being boxed in its own zone for a period of time. The coaches were careful to match their #1 lines against each other as they had in game they played before. The result was each line canceled the other out. The first period ended 0-0, but the South was flying in the last minute and Eagan hanging on. The ice was cleaned.

As the second period opened, a South forward fired the puck on the goal from the blue line to set up a line change and the crowd gasped collectively as the puck slowly fell off the goalie mitt into the net. South led 1-0. That happened at the eleven minute mark and the remaining of the period was a fast and fierce skating game with the coaches matching the #1 lines. The second period ended 1-0.

The third period opened with a Lakeville South penalty, and the South appeared to be skating it off, until they were caught with the bulk of their #1 double shifting against Eagan’s #1. The result was Eagan banging in a power play goal to tie the game 1-1. Still short handed, the bulk of their #1 line was left out to skate the final thirty seconds of the penalty off. But Eagan pinned them in their zone and banged in a second goal to take the lead at 2-1 with nine minutes to go.

Things looked bleak for the South as they could not get untracked for the next two minutes and with the faceoff in their zone they looked dead. But about four years ago, a Lakeville coach introduced a “home run play” with some success and the South resorted to the “home run. It worked as a South forward just blindly skating for the Woodbury zone had the puck land a few feet in front of him. He swept the puck up, drew the lone Woodbury defender to him and passed to a breaking forward who rapped the puck through the sprawling goalie to tie the game. The crowd went nuts.

The remainder of the third period, the coaches seemed to stop matching lines and look for openings for their #1’s. And they both had opportunities as the game continued at a high scrambling up and down pace. But each defense held and regular time ended with the score 2-2. In overtime, D8 starts with a 10 minute, five on five, stop time period. And both coaches went back to matching lines and skating all three lines. The game remained an up and down affair until the six minute mark.

South’s #1 line caught another Eagan line at the end of their shift, but the Eagan line managed to drive South’s #1 to the South’s zone and lock them up. More importantly, they held the zone as Eagan’s #1 came on the ice. With the Eagan center in the slot skating off the bench, the puck came lose from the boards. His first shot banged off the goalie and bounced around the net back to the same forward. He didn’t miss the second time catching the goalie moving left with a high shot that hit the net on the right. Eagan won 3-2 in one of the more exciting playoff games of the season.

[slapshot88]

D2
#1 North St. Paul
#2 Roseville
#3 White Bear Lake

How does this look? anyone agree