FINAL Odds against reaching AA State Tournament

[O-townClown]

SECTION 1
3:1 Lakeville S
7:2 Owatonna
4:1 Lakeville N
5:1 Mayo
6:1 Century

I’m not crazy about where I’ve put North (6-16-3) or that I have Century (8-15-1) even listed, but SOMEBODY here will be in the state tournament. The #1 seed has a lousy record (11-11-3) and last I checked none of these register in the state’s Top 40 teams. Ugh!

SECTION 2
2:3 Edina
4:1 Burnsville
5:1 Jefferson
9:1 Holy Angels

Odds unchanged for past few updates. Holy Angels (18-6-1) assumes the role of spoiler after a few years as fave. Burnsville (20-5) may have a better chance that I’m giving them, but I really expect to see the Hornets T.C.B. on the wide sheet at Mariucci.

SECTION 3
3:2 Rosemount
2:1 Eastview
3:1 Woodbury
20:1 C-DH

There are some very good games to be played here, but Rosemount (18-7) has to get the nod because of their seed. One of the more even games anywhere on the 23rd should be Woodbury (19-6) battling Eastview (16-7-2). Cretin (11-14) needs to win out to go to state with a .500 record.

SECTION 4
1:2 Hill-Murray
4:1 White Bear Lake
5:1 Roseville

Roseville (16-8-1) should meet White Bear (16-8-1) on the 26th in another great section semi. The winner takes their best shot at Hill.

SECTION 5
Even Centennial
3:2 Blaine
10:1 Champlin Park
20:1 Osseo
25:1 Maple Grove

I’ve got to add back another team after declaring this mostly a two-horse race. Champlin Park (16-8-1) surprised me as a #2 seed over Blaine (16-8). I don’t think there is a better first round game anywhere than Osseo (16-9) and Maple Grove (13-12).

SECTION 6
Even Minnetonka
3:2 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7:1 Eden Prairie
15:1 Hopkins

I’ll admit that I was wrong in prematurely dropping Hopkins (21-3-1) from consideration. Still, don’t be surprised if they fail to get past hard-luck Wayzata (7-14-4) who played too tough a schedule. They would have fared well in many leagues. Minnetonka (22-3) enters on a roll and Benilde (22-3) feels the same after beating Edina and shocking Shattuck.

SECTION 7
Even Duluth East
2:1 Anoka
4:1 Grand Rapids

I can’t bring myself to include Cloquet (12-11-2) in the discussion, so the big fave is Duluth East (17-7-1) due to their seed. Anoka (18-6) should face Grand Rapids (13-9-1) in a semi, but both could lose to either Andover (beat Blaine, 9-14-1) or Forest Lake (13-11).

SECTION 8
1:5 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead

Brainerd (16-8-1) could surprise Moorhead (11-8-3) but they won’t beat Roseau. updated 2/17

[Jacketfan06]

good stuff O town

[Circles]

Unless you're running a sportsbook, I would expect the odds to add up to 100%, or slightly less if you don't want to completely disregard the rest of the teams. Might want to recheck the math.

[O-townClown]

SECTION 1
3:1 Lakeville S
7:2 Owatonna
4:1 Lakeville N
5:1 Mayo
6:1 Century

SECTION 2
2:3 Edina
4:1 Burnsville
5:1 Jefferson
9:1 Holy Angels

SECTION 3
3:2 Rosemount
2:1 Eastview
3:1 Woodbury
20:1 C-DH

SECTION 4
1:2 Hill-Murray
4:1 White Bear Lake
5:1 Roseville

SECTION 5
Even Centennial
3:2 Blaine
10:1 Champlin Park
20:1 Osseo
25:1 Maple Grove

SECTION 6
Even Minnetonka
3:2 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7:1 Eden Prairie
15:1 Hopkins

SECTION 7
Even Duluth East
2:1 Anoka
4:1 Grand Rapids

SECTION 8
1:5 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead

Circles, they're all pretty close within reason. If you've been following, this is the 4th rendition and last go-'round I dismissed the chances of nearly all the lower seeded teams. The last decade has shown seeds are an excellent predictor.

If I were running a book the percentages would add up to quite a bit less than 100. These are tabulated without a house cut, and due to rounding or a recent change in the 4th version may add up to a little more.

Checking the math:

• I - 25 + 22 + 20 + 17 + 13 = 97
  II - 60 + 20 + 17 + 10 = 107
  III - 40 + 33 + 25 + 5 = 103
  IV - 67 + 20 + 17 = 104
  V - 50 + 40 + 9 + 5 + 4 = 108
  VI - 50 + 40 + 12 + 6 = 108
  VII - 50 + 33 + 20 = 103
  VIII - 83 + 20 = 103

Close enough for me. Sorry if not close enough for you. You can shave down the odds enough to bring the 107 and 108s down to 100 on your own.

[hockeyjunkie2]

Thanks OTown!

[HOFam'r]

SECTION 1
3:1 Lakeville S
7:2 Owatonna
4:1 Lakeville N
5:1 Mayo
6:1 Century

SECTION 2
2:3 Edina
4:1 Burnsville
5:1 Jefferson
9:1 Holy Angels

SECTION 3
3:2 Rosemount
2:1 Eastview
3:1 Woodbury
20:1 C-DH

SECTION 4
1:2 Hill-Murray
4:1 White Bear Lake
5:1 Roseville

SECTION 5
Even Centennial
3:2 Blaine
10:1 Champlin Park
20:1 Osseo
25:1 Maple Grove

SECTION 6
Even Minnetonka
3:2 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7:1 Eden Prairie
15:1 Hopkins

SECTION 7
Even Duluth East
2:1 Anoka
4:1 Grand Rapids

SECTION 8
1:5 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead

Circles, they're all pretty close within reason. If you've been following, this is the 4th rendition and last go-'round I dismissed the chances of nearly all the lower seeded teams. The last decade has shown seeds are an excellent predictor.

If I were running a book the percentages would add up to quite a bit less than 100. These are tabulated without a house cut, and due to rounding or a recent change in the 4th version may add up to a little more.

Checking the math:

• I - 25 + 22 + 20 + 17 + 13 = 97
  II - 60 + 20 + 17 + 10 = 107
  III - 40 + 33 + 25 + 5 = 103
  IV - 67 + 20 + 17 = 104
  V - 50 + 40 + 9 + 5 + 4 = 108
  VI - 50 + 40 + 12 + 6 = 108
  VII - 50 + 33 + 20 = 103
  VIII - 83 + 20 = 103

Close enough for me. Sorry if not close enough for you. You can shave down the odds enough to bring the 107 and 108s down to 100 on your own.

Does this mean Buffalo has a -3% chance at reaching the Tourney?

[O-townClown]

Good one Famer! I wish them well if they face Roseau again. Buffalo seemed pretty overmatched in their recent Edina game. Can't imagine them beating the Rams.

[Can't Never Tried]

Good one Famer! I wish them well if they face Roseau again. Buffalo seemed pretty overmatched in their recent Edina game. Can't imagine them beating the Rams.

But the Tonka game was only 3-1 Tonka, who beat Edina... and then Hopkins 2-1 and it was only 3-0 Rams at Roseau.

They could surprise...ya never know...they could meltdown just as easily though too! that's been the deal with them this year.

IMO they get past Tech to get the rematch with the Rams on neutral ice, if you can call TRF neutral and then who knows??

[Cornbread]

SECTION 1
3:1 Lakeville S
7:2 Owatonna
4:1 Lakeville N
5:1 Mayo
6:1 Century

SECTION 2
2:3 Edina
4:1 Burnsville
5:1 Jefferson
9:1 Holy Angels

SECTION 3
3:2 Rosemount
2:1 Eastview
3:1 Woodbury
20:1 C-DH

SECTION 4
1:2 Hill-Murray
4:1 White Bear Lake
5:1 Roseville

SECTION 5
Even Centennial
3:2 Blaine
10:1 Champlin Park
20:1 Osseo
25:1 Maple Grove

SECTION 6
Even Minnetonka
3:2 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7:1 Eden Prairie
15:1 Hopkins

SECTION 7
Even Duluth East
2:1 Anoka
4:1 Grand Rapids

SECTION 8
1:5 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead

Circles, they're all pretty close within reason. If you've been following, this is the 4th rendition and last go-'round I dismissed the chances of nearly all the lower seeded teams. The last decade has shown seeds are an excellent predictor.

If I were running a book the percentages would add up to quite a bit less than 100. These are tabulated without a house cut, and due to rounding or a recent change in the 4th version may add up to a little more.

Checking the math:

• I - 25 + 22 + 20 + 17 + 13 = 97
  II - 60 + 20 + 17 + 10 = 107
  III - 40 + 33 + 25 + 5 = 103
  IV - 67 + 20 + 17 = 104
  V - 50 + 40 + 9 + 5 + 4 = 108
  VI - 50 + 40 + 12 + 6 = 108
  VII - 50 + 33 + 20 = 103
  VIII - 83 + 20 = 103

Close enough for me. Sorry if not close enough for you. You can shave down the odds enough to bring the 107 and 108s down to 100 on your own.

Does this mean Buffalo has a -3% chance at reaching the Tourney?

Are those the Vegas numbers?

[PASTRAPIDSFAN]

Im collecting the money and Elliott is paying out.

[MNsGreatest#2]

I’ve got to add back another team after declaring this mostly a two-horse race. Champlin Park (16-8-1) surprised me as a #2 seed over Blaine

[MNsGreatest#2]

Kevin Gorg must like his 10:1 odds seeing as he picked Champlin Park to make it out of section 5AA. Apparently he made this pick during the second intermission of the wild game tonight.

[EREmpireStrikesBack]

Kevin Gorg must like his 10:1 odds seeing as he picked Champlin Park to make it out of section 5AA. Apparently he made this pick during the second intermission of the wild game tonight.

Dream On- Aerosmith

[O-townClown]

SECTION 1
3:1 Lakeville S
7:2 Owatonna
4:1 Lakeville N
5:1 Mayo
6:1 Century

I’m not crazy about where I’ve put North (6-16-3) or that I have Century (8-15-1) even listed, but SOMEBODY here will be in the state tournament. The #1 seed has a lousy record (11-11-3) and last I checked none of these register in the state’s Top 40 teams. Ugh!

SECTION 2
2:3 Edina
4:1 Burnsville
5:1 Jefferson
9:1 Holy Angels

Odds unchanged for past few updates. Holy Angels (18-6-1) assumes the role of spoiler after a few years as fave. Burnsville (20-5) may have a better chance that I’m giving them, but I really expect to see the Hornets T.C.B. on the wide sheet at Mariucci.

SECTION 3
3:2 Rosemount
2:1 Eastview
3:1 Woodbury
20:1 C-DH

There are some very good games to be played here, but Rosemount (18-7) has to get the nod because of their seed. One of the more even games anywhere on the 23rd should be Woodbury (19-6) battling Eastview (16-7-2). Cretin (11-14) needs to win out to go to state with a .500 record.

SECTION 4
1:2 Hill-Murray
4:1 White Bear Lake
5:1 Roseville

Roseville (16-8-1) should meet White Bear (16-8-1) on the 26th in another great section semi. The winner takes their best shot at Hill.

SECTION 5
Even Centennial
3:2 Blaine
10:1 Champlin Park
20:1 Osseo
25:1 Maple Grove

I’ve got to add back another team after declaring this mostly a two-horse race. Champlin Park (16-8-1) surprised me as a #2 seed over Blaine (16-8). I don’t think there is a better first round game anywhere than Osseo (16-9) and Maple Grove (13-12).

SECTION 6
Even Minnetonka
3:2 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7:1 Eden Prairie
15:1 Hopkins

I’ll admit that I was wrong in prematurely dropping Hopkins (21-3-1) from consideration. Still, don’t be surprised if they fail to get past hard-luck Wayzata (7-14-4) who played too tough a schedule. They would have fared well in many leagues. Minnetonka (22-3) enters on a roll and Benilde (22-3) feels the same after beating Edina and shocking Shattuck.

SECTION 7
Even Duluth East
2:1 Anoka
4:1 Grand Rapids

I can’t bring myself to include Cloquet (12-11-2) in the discussion, so the big fave is Duluth East (17-7-1) due to their seed. Anoka (18-6) should face Grand Rapids (13-9-1) in a semi, but both could lose to either Andover (beat Blaine, 9-14-1) or Forest Lake (13-11).

SECTION 8
1:5 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead

Brainerd (16-8-1) could surprise Moorhead (11-8-3) but they won’t beat Roseau. updated 2/17

Update on who is left after Super Saturday.

[O-townClown]

SECTION 1
3:1 Lakeville S
7:2 Owatonna
4:1 Lakeville N
5:1 Mayo
6:1 Century

I’m not crazy about where I’ve put North (6-16-3) or that I have Century (8-15-1) even listed, but SOMEBODY here will be in the state tournament. The #1 seed has a lousy record (11-11-3) and last I checked none of these register in the state’s Top 40 teams. Ugh!

SECTION 2
2:3 Edina
4:1 Burnsville
5:1 Jefferson
9:1 Holy Angels

Odds unchanged for past few updates. Holy Angels (18-6-1) assumes the role of spoiler after a few years as fave. Burnsville (20-5) may have a better chance that I’m giving them, but I really expect to see the Hornets T.C.B. on the wide sheet at Mariucci.

SECTION 3
3:2 Rosemount
2:1 Eastview
3:1 Woodbury
20:1 C-DH

There are some very good games to be played here, but Rosemount (18-7) has to get the nod because of their seed. One of the more even games anywhere on the 23rd should be Woodbury (19-6) battling Eastview (16-7-2). Cretin (11-14) needs to win out to go to state with a .500 record.

SECTION 4
1:2 Hill-Murray
4:1 White Bear Lake
5:1 Roseville

Roseville (16-8-1) should meet White Bear (16-8-1) on the 26th in another great section semi. The winner takes their best shot at Hill.

SECTION 5
Even Centennial
3:2 Blaine
10:1 Champlin Park
20:1 Osseo
25:1 Maple Grove

I’ve got to add back another team after declaring this mostly a two-horse race. Champlin Park (16-8-1) surprised me as a #2 seed over Blaine (16-8). I don’t think there is a better first round game anywhere than Osseo (16-9) and Maple Grove (13-12).

SECTION 6
Even Minnetonka
3:2 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7:1 Eden Prairie
15:1 Hopkins

I’ll admit that I was wrong in prematurely dropping Hopkins (21-3-1) from consideration. Still, don’t be surprised if they fail to get past hard-luck Wayzata (7-14-4) who played too tough a schedule. They would have fared well in many leagues. Minnetonka (22-3) enters on a roll and Benilde (22-3) feels the same after beating Edina and shocking Shattuck.

SECTION 7
Even Duluth East
2:1 Anoka
4:1 Grand Rapids

I can’t bring myself to include Cloquet (12-11-2) in the discussion, so the big fave is Duluth East (17-7-1) due to their seed. Anoka (18-6) should face Grand Rapids (13-9-1) in a semi, but both could lose to either Andover (beat Blaine, 9-14-1) or Forest Lake (13-11).

SECTION 8
1:5 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead

Brainerd (16-8-1) could surprise Moorhead (11-8-3) but they won’t beat Roseau. updated 2/17

Three teams are in and two more sections are down to the final two.

[goldy313]

No offense, but don't plan on becoming an oddsmaker. Given how many many people took Lakeville South you'd either be in hiding or trying to fix the 1AA final about now. It's not as bad as the Braves in '91 but darn close.

[hockeyfan510]

Its B.S. that ether Lakeville north or south team gets a chance to play in state there are a lot of teams more worthy of it kind of sucks the sections are the way there are!

[goldy313]

Its B.S. that ether Lakeville north or south team gets a chance to play in state there are a lot of teams more worthy of it kind of sucks the sections are the way there are!

Good Grief!! You'd better hope both Cloquet and Rosemount lose. By my recollection South beat Rosemount about 2 weeks ago.

[minnesotahockeyfan]

[quote="goldy313"][quote="hockeyfan510"]Its B.S. that ether Lakeville north or south team gets a chance to play in state there are a lot of teams more worthy of it kind of sucks the sections are the way there are![/quote]

Good Grief!! You'd better hope both Cloquet and Rosemount lose. By my recollection South beat Rosemount about 2 weeks ago.[/quote]

Thank you

[O-townClown]

No offense, but don't plan on becoming an oddsmaker. Given how many many people took Lakeville South you'd either be in hiding or trying to fix the 1AA final about now. It's not as bad as the Braves in '91 but darn close.

Not sure I follow. You know people with bets on Lakeville South?

[goldy313]

On your section winners contest, nearly everyone picked South. In '91 even though the Braves majic number was about 10 with less than 20 to play Vegas was so sure the Mets ( I think) would win the Braves were still not the favorites. Many made a lifetimes worth of earnings on that. In fact it would have taken a Giants like collapse and still the Braves were'nt the favorites.

I know you didn't update your odds, that's why I used that analogy. A tounge in cheek reference, that's all.

[O-townClown]

On your section winners contest, nearly everyone picked South. In '91 even though the Braves majic number was about 10 with less than 20 to play Vegas was so sure the Mets ( I think) would win the Braves were still not the favorites. Many made a lifetimes worth of earnings on that. In fact it would have taken a Giants like collapse and still the Braves were'nt the favorites.

I know you didn't update your odds, that's why I used that analogy. A tounge in cheek reference, that's all.

Goldy, all year I felt Section 1 was very wide-open. I still do. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the less-heralded Lakeville team beat the one that went .500. Yikes, that section is brutal.

As has been mentioned, I tried to post true odds and not what you'd actually get if you placed a wager with someone where the house has the advantage. Adjusting for house advantage the South odds would be 2:1 instead of 3:1 and North would be 3:1 instead of 4:1.

The Pick 8 contest is quite a bit different in my eyes. Maybe you are right that a bunch of money would have been dumped on South if a window were open. I had them the least likely of all #1 seeds to make St. Paul, only because there wasn't much difference between the top five teams in 1AA. On Pick 8 I look at it as trying to have a ticket that is more than likely going to have all eight and then eliminating some teams to whittle down the cost.

If you look at Pick 8 results the approach of 'betting' a buck or six didn't work. My ticket would have cost $72 and the others in it aren't far off. I see the Section odds for prop bets and Pick 8 as different, but maybe you're right that I was off in setting the odds for South. I don't feel I was. They lost nearly all their games when the schedule was tough and then turned it around in the W/L column when things lightened up. I've never felt they were a certainty to win three games in a row, two against teams roughly as good as them.

The final is also a rivalry game, so I wouldn't assume they're home free yet.

[O-townClown]

On your section winners contest, nearly everyone picked South. In '91 even though the Braves majic number was about 10 with less than 20 to play Vegas was so sure the Mets ( I think) would win the Braves were still not the favorites. Many made a lifetimes worth of earnings on that. In fact it would have taken a Giants like collapse and still the Braves were'nt the favorites.

I know you didn't update your odds, that's why I used that analogy. A tounge in cheek reference, that's all.

Goldy, I just posted a very long reply that was lost. Sorry. Short version is that I don't think the odds of 3:1 with no house advantage (meaning you'd probably get 2:1 if I actually opened a window) are off at all. They still have work to do.

[O-townClown]

Oh, that's weird. Post wasn't lost after all.

[O-townClown]

SECTION 1
3:1 Lakeville S
7:2 Owatonna
4:1 Lakeville N
5:1 Mayo
6:1 Century

I’m not crazy about where I’ve put North (6-16-3) or that I have Century (8-15-1) even listed, but SOMEBODY here will be in the state tournament. The #1 seed has a lousy record (11-11-3) and last I checked none of these register in the state’s Top 40 teams. Ugh!

SECTION 2
2:3 Edina
4:1 Burnsville
5:1 Jefferson
9:1 Holy Angels

Odds unchanged for past few updates. Holy Angels (18-6-1) assumes the role of spoiler after a few years as fave. Burnsville (20-5) may have a better chance that I’m giving them, but I really expect to see the Hornets T.C.B. on the wide sheet at Mariucci.

SECTION 3
3:2 Rosemount
2:1 Eastview
3:1 Woodbury
20:1 C-DH

There are some very good games to be played here, but Rosemount (18-7) has to get the nod because of their seed. One of the more even games anywhere on the 23rd should be Woodbury (19-6) battling Eastview (16-7-2). Cretin (11-14) needs to win out to go to state with a .500 record.

SECTION 4
1:2 Hill-Murray
4:1 White Bear Lake
5:1 Roseville

Roseville (16-8-1) should meet White Bear (16-8-1) on the 26th in another great section semi. The winner takes their best shot at Hill.

SECTION 5
Even Centennial
3:2 Blaine
10:1 Champlin Park
20:1 Osseo
25:1 Maple Grove

I’ve got to add back another team after declaring this mostly a two-horse race. Champlin Park (16-8-1) surprised me as a #2 seed over Blaine (16-8). I don’t think there is a better first round game anywhere than Osseo (16-9) and Maple Grove (13-12).

SECTION 6
Even Minnetonka
3:2 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7:1 Eden Prairie
15:1 Hopkins

I’ll admit that I was wrong in prematurely dropping Hopkins (21-3-1) from consideration. Still, don’t be surprised if they fail to get past hard-luck Wayzata (7-14-4) who played too tough a schedule. They would have fared well in many leagues. Minnetonka (22-3) enters on a roll and Benilde (22-3) feels the same after beating Edina and shocking Shattuck.

SECTION 7
Even Duluth East
2:1 Anoka
4:1 Grand Rapids

Color Me Badd!! I didn't have Cloquet listed.
I can’t bring myself to include Cloquet (12-11-2) in the discussion, so the big fave is Duluth East (17-7-1) due to their seed. Anoka (18-6) should face Grand Rapids (13-9-1) in a semi, but both could lose to either Andover (beat Blaine, 9-14-1) or Forest Lake (13-11).

SECTION 8
1:5 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead

Brainerd (16-8-1) could surprise Moorhead (11-8-3) but they won’t beat Roseau. updated 2/17

I should have brought myself to include Cloquet, then 12-11-2 and now 15-11-2. Congratulations to the Lumberjacks.