FINAL Odds against reaching AA State Tournament

[formerallstar]

Ya definitely think a lot of people had Cloquet written off......Congrats to the Lumberjacks

[SEMinnHockeyNut]

If adopted the O-Town Clown system of betting and prediction I would have lost 'my blouse' to quote Denny Lemieux from Slap Shot.

Thank goodness I am better at making predictions than that.

BSM goes two and out at 'THE SKATE'

[pondyplayer93]

SECTION 1
3:1 Lakeville S
7:2 Owatonna
4:1 Lakeville N
5:1 Mayo
6:1 Century

I’m not crazy about where I’ve put North (6-16-3) or that I have Century (8-15-1) even listed, but SOMEBODY here will be in the state tournament. The #1 seed has a lousy record (11-11-3) and last I checked none of these register in the state’s Top 40 teams. Ugh!

SECTION 2
2:3 Edina
4:1 Burnsville
5:1 Jefferson
9:1 Holy Angels

Odds unchanged for past few updates. Holy Angels (18-6-1) assumes the role of spoiler after a few years as fave. Burnsville (20-5) may have a better chance that I’m giving them, but I really expect to see the Hornets T.C.B. on the wide sheet at Mariucci.

SECTION 3
3:2 Rosemount
2:1 Eastview
3:1 Woodbury
20:1 C-DH

There are some very good games to be played here, but Rosemount (18-7) has to get the nod because of their seed. One of the more even games anywhere on the 23rd should be Woodbury (19-6) battling Eastview (16-7-2). Cretin (11-14) needs to win out to go to state with a .500 record.

SECTION 4
1:2 Hill-Murray
4:1 White Bear Lake
5:1 Roseville

Roseville (16-8-1) should meet White Bear (16-8-1) on the 26th in another great section semi. The winner takes their best shot at Hill.

SECTION 5
Even Centennial
3:2 Blaine
10:1 Champlin Park
20:1 Osseo
25:1 Maple Grove

I’ve got to add back another team after declaring this mostly a two-horse race. Champlin Park (16-8-1) surprised me as a #2 seed over Blaine (16-8). I don’t think there is a better first round game anywhere than Osseo (16-9) and Maple Grove (13-12).

SECTION 6
Even Minnetonka
3:2 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7:1 Eden Prairie
15:1 Hopkins

I’ll admit that I was wrong in prematurely dropping Hopkins (21-3-1) from consideration. Still, don’t be surprised if they fail to get past hard-luck Wayzata (7-14-4) who played too tough a schedule. They would have fared well in many leagues. Minnetonka (22-3) enters on a roll and Benilde (22-3) feels the same after beating Edina and shocking Shattuck.

SECTION 7
Even Duluth East
2:1 Anoka
4:1 Grand Rapids

I can’t bring myself to include Cloquet (12-11-2) in the discussion, so the big fave is Duluth East (17-7-1) due to their seed. Anoka (18-6) should face Grand Rapids (13-9-1) in a semi, but both could lose to either Andover (beat Blaine, 9-14-1) or Forest Lake (13-11).

SECTION 8
1:5 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead

Brainerd (16-8-1) could surprise Moorhead (11-8-3) but they won’t beat Roseau. updated 2/17

shame on you for not including cloquet

[O-townClown]

If adopted the O-Town Clown system of betting and prediction I would have lost 'my blouse' to quote Denny Lemieux from Slap Shot.

Thank goodness I am better at making predictions than that.

BSM goes two and out at 'THE SKATE'

I'm not so sure I follow. Odds against doing something are neither bets nor predictions. It is a study of likelihood. One can choose, where betting is allowed, to bet against the odds. Cloquet winning doesn't change the fact they had long odds against reaching St. Paul.

My predictions seem to be doing just fine.

I wish you well in yours where you are calling on a team that defeated Edina, Shattuck, and Minnetonka to lose to teams like Cloquet and Lakeville.

[O-townClown]

Pondy, I've posted my mea culpa!

[SEMinnHockeyNut]

It is not that you are not right with your odds, it is the manner in which you are 150% sure that you are correct that LS will get killed when your team tooke double-OT to beat a team LN also beat.

You are so certain that they both would get killed, when in years past, clowns like yourself have stated the very same thing, and then the winner of this section beat high quality teams or gave them good games.

Check the history.....this thread is a decade old...and history has proven the winning % is low, but the teams don't get slaughtered like you predict.
In fact, Roseau's toughest game last year was Century. What did you honestly think of Century's chances last year? Did you predict doom?

Do you predict doom for Mankato West as well? If so, you are not really paying attention.

If your BSM team that barely beat Stillwater and CDH shows up, they will lose guaranteed. (See how certain I am?)

[O-townClown]

It is not that you are not right with your odds, it is the manner in which you are 150% sure that you are correct that LS will get killed when your team tooke double-OT to beat a team LN also beat.

You are so certain that they both would get killed, when in years past, clowns like yourself have stated the very same thing, and then the winner of this section beat high quality teams or gave them good games.

Check the history.....this thread is a decade old...and history has proven the winning % is low, but the teams don't get slaughtered like you predict.
In fact, Roseau's toughest game last year was Century. What did you honestly think of Century's chances last year? Did you predict doom?

Do you predict doom for Mankato West as well? If so, you are not really paying attention.

If your BSM team that barely beat Stillwater and CDH shows up, they will lose guaranteed. (See how certain I am?)

It is very hard for me to follow. Who is my team and what does Lakeville North have to do with anything?

Don't get slaughtered?

• Lakeville North lost 7-2 to Blaine in 2006
  Sibley lost 3-0 to Edina in 1997
  Mayo lost 4-1 to South St. Paul in 1994
  Austin (9 losses) lost 9-0 to Elk River in 1993
  Edina lost 8-3 to Greenway in 1987
  Richfield was 2 & Out in 1986, but not blowouts

You seem to think people have a problem with Lakeville because they are from Section I. That's not it at all. The issue is that they are 10-loss team. Ten loss teams don't fare well in the state tournament. If you have 10 losses, you better be playing someone good.

Lakeville North was 6-16-3 entering sections and has about a 2 in 5 shot to win tomorrow. At worst 1 in 3. Yeah, I'm going to predict they get blitzed if they face Edina or Roseau. A pretty educated guess.

Century was 23-5 last season. Not bad. Mayo was the best Rochester squad this year and they went 14-10-1. I don't think these Lakeville teams are as good as Century. We'll see.

[pondyplayer93]

Pondy, I've posted my mea culpa!

what?

[O-townClown]

Pondy, I've posted my mea culpa!

what?

It's in my post from 11:18 pm. (My computer is set for ET. I don't know if it matters.)

Even wrote "color me badd" in purple for Cloquet!

[SEMinnHockeyNut]

Don't forget about the 2002 and 2003 Lakeville teams that lost one goal games on opening day. Nor should you forget to mention the DE team that had 10+ losses but made the tourney, only to lose in the opening round. Is Cloquet guaranteed to get slaughtered? Notice that certainity of prediction - the whole driving point behind my posts.

Oh, wait should we not mention the East Grand Forks team that shamefully represented section 8A in 1999 only to make the title game?

The 2001 Mahtomedi and Duluth Marshall teams were criminal. They made it to St. Paul with double-digit losses and then lost by 2 goals!

What a crime that Hibbing lost 10 games in 2003, took Lourdes to OT and won the consolation title.

How dare STA make it 2005 with 10 losses and then BEAT Virginia 8-2. Geesh, that Blue Devils team had a guy who is now on the Dallas Stars.

Orono 11 losses, then lose to eventual champs STA in OT (2006)

2007 Blake - 10 losses, then lose a one goal game to DM.

Should I gather more info on 10 loss teams?

Should I gather more on section 1AA (and 1A) teams that get ripped whether they have 3 losses or 13 losses?

Lastly, when was the last time you actually watched LS in person?

[O-townClown]

I have not watched Lakeville South. You are confusing me with your moving-target argument. Now you are throwing in a bunch of A results.

Each year there are a few real strong teams. Roseau and Edina are obviously elite teams this season. Does that mean they'll win every game every time? No.

When a marginal state tournament competitor, and Section 1 will send one this season, meets an elite team it can be like the bug meeting the windshield.

Cloquet is a little more accomplished this year than Lakeville N or S.
They beat Duluth East twice, tied Rapids, and took down White Bear. An educated guess is that they will fare better in St. Paul than Lakeville, but they didn't match up well against Edina so it could be rough going against Roseau.

You don't need to gather anything for me. I've seen enough HS sports to know that anything can happen and remember details from tourney games all the way back to the late 70s when I was 9. Whether you like it or not, the tournament coaches will know that it is better to draw Lakeville than Blaine. And Lakeville's coach will give his team the "we have nothing to lose" speech if they square off against Edina or Roseau on Thursday.

We shall see how it all plays out.

[O-townClown]

BLAINE

[O-townClown]

LAKEVILLE SOUTH

[SEMinnHockeyNut]

Ten loss teams don't fare well in the state tournament.

Where in that statement did you eliminate the Class A portion of the tournament?

I am nine years old now and you are struggling to defend your point of view. Perhaps you should run for a GOP political office?

Never did I say that Roseau nor Edina would not be the favorites, but you said that LS (or whomever) will get beat badly, which I interpret as basically guaranteed running time in the 3rd period. I said history proves otherwise if you look at the scores. You did not specifiy 10 loss teams in your original statement, just Section 1AA. I lumped you in with every other guy who blasts southern MN hockey year in and year out. I know - stereotypical, but it is what it is....we are defensive. We are ready. I am on the LS and MW bandwagons and we will be posting like mad when we beat you.

The Class A scores might be a moving arguement in your eyes. If that is the case, stop having flashbacks and get a more limber mind. I can also remember the 1970's. It was my former life and it was beautiful.

[SEMinnHockeyNut]

P.S. In another post you accussed me of having some sort of loyalty for Lakeville or southern Minnesota teams. It does not take much brain power to realize that to be true if you look at my handle.

[O-townClown]

Nut, congratulations to South. Their trip to state will provide the entire student body with memories to last a lifetime.

When did I eliminate A? No need to eliminate it, I never considered it.

All along you thought I had a bias against someone because they are from Section 1??? Not an issue at all for me. I hold a bias against teams that just aren't as accomplished.

I used to work with someone who wasn't very nice. In a male-dominated industry she thought she was treated differently because of her gender. Had nothing to do with it. People don't like her because she's not nice.

My problem with picking Lakeville South has nothing to do with them being from Section 1, it has to do with their .500 record and resume lacking quality wins.

Or maybe you could say it has everything to do with them being from Section 1 because they never would have made it through 2, 4, 5, 6, or 8.

If I had to guess I'd say they are three times more likely to go 2 & Out than they are to pull the upset in the quarters. We'll see who they draw. If it is Roseau or Edina I'm calling for a mismatch. Maybe even the running time you mention, but at this late stage of the season it is hard to really drill someone. Hill and Benilde should beat them handily - 2 or 3 goals with the outcome never in doubt.

Maybe I have this all wrong. I'm going to pay attention to see how it finishes. If I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it.