KRACH POWER RANKINGS 2008-9

[MNHockeyFan]

Amazing how close Warroad and Roseville are in the overall...after those two there are large gaps.

And Roseville nudges a little ahead...still very close!

[ghshockeyfan]

I should note that an error in the Hopkins & GRG records was pointed out. Apparently the minnesota-scores.net site reflects this as a "W" for Hopkins when it was really a "T" by MSHSL standards. In fact, after the first (only MSHSL allowed) OT the game should have been decided by SO and no further OT's.... Hopefully this (the tie) will be properly reflected on both Hopkins & GRG records soon and both QRF & KRACH rankings are impacted by this issue as they both pull data (scores) from the minnesota-scores.net site...

[ghshockeyfan]

Amazing how close Warroad and Roseville are in the overall...after those two there are large gaps.

And Roseville nudges a little ahead...still very close!

I was asked recently about the significance of the actual rating value... It's supposed to be for odds making purposes that team A will beat team B:

"(Larger rating value)/(smaller rating value) - to - 1" odds that larger rating team will win...

It should be noted that an "average" team would be assigned a rating value of 10. Any team above that value would be "above average" OVERALL in the state.

Note that in Class AA 47 of 68 teams earn a rating of 10+ whereas in Class A only 16 of 56 teams earn a rating of above 10. Meaning, that to be a top 20 ranked Class A team you don't have to be in the top half of the teams overall in the state.

[ghshockeyfan]

This will be updated late tonight...

[ghshockeyfan]

Updated 1-22-09 (see links above or below) but note the missing scores for recent dates - you can check by team or other dates but here's a general link:
http://www.minnesota-scores.net/scorebo ... &sport=110

If you know a missing score or score correction send it to:
http://www.minnesota-scores.net/email.php

Most recent KRACH rankings posted at:

OVERALL
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_OA.htm
CLASS AA
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_AA.htm
CLASS A
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_A.htm

SOS is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/SOS.htm

[MNHockeyFan]

What a difference a week makes - some major changes at the top in the overall. Roseville has established a clear lead and Warroad drops from a virtual tie for 1st to No. 4. In Class A Blake and Warroad are now way out front of everybody else.

[ghshockeyfan]

Updated 1-26-09 (see links above or below) but note the missing scores for recent dates - you can check by team or other dates but here's a general link:
http://www.minnesota-scores.net/scorebo ... &sport=110

If you know a missing score or score correction send it to:
http://www.minnesota-scores.net/email.php

Most recent KRACH rankings posted at:

OVERALL
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_OA.htm
CLASS AA
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_AA.htm
CLASS A
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_A.htm
SECTION
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_SEC.htm

SOS is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/SOS.htm

[ghshockeyfan]

KRACH by SECTION is now available at:

SECTION
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_SEC.htm

[SEhockeyDAD]

Question for you ghs; in the KRACH system, does the first game of the year mean less to a teams ranking than the most recent games?

[ghshockeyfan]

Question for you ghs; in the KRACH system, does the first game of the year mean less to a teams ranking than the most recent games?

No. Qrf does weight more recent games I believe however or did at one point in time. I can see value in this in some ways and also problems with it in others as too with the use of score differential and class being used by qrf (not used by krach)... Krach is a little less forgiving than qrf for these reasons and really only cares about if you win...

[ghshockeyfan]

Updated 1-29-09 (see links above or below) but note the missing scores for recent dates - you can check by team or other dates but here's a general link:
http://www.minnesota-scores.net/scorebo ... &sport=110

If you know a missing score or score correction send it to:
http://www.minnesota-scores.net/email.php

Most recent KRACH rankings posted at:

OVERALL
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_OA.htm
CLASS AA
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_AA.htm
CLASS A
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_A.htm
SECTION
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_SEC.htm

SOS is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/SOS.htm

[ghshockeyfan]

Updated 2-2-09 (see links above or below) but note the missing scores for recent dates - you can check by team or other dates but here's a general link:
http://www.minnesota-scores.net/scorebo ... &sport=110

If you know a missing score or score correction send it to:
http://www.minnesota-scores.net/email.php

Most recent KRACH rankings posted at:

OVERALL
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_OA.htm
CLASS AA
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_AA.htm
CLASS A
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_A.htm
SECTION
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_SEC.htm

SOS is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/SOS.htm

[ghshockeyfan]

Updated 2-5-09 (see links above or below) but note the missing scores for recent dates - you can check by team or other dates but here's a general link:
http://www.minnesota-scores.net/scorebo ... &sport=110

If you know a missing score or score correction send it to:
http://www.minnesota-scores.net/email.php

Most recent KRACH rankings posted at:

OVERALL
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_OA.htm
CLASS AA
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_AA.htm
CLASS A
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_A.htm
SECTION
http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_SEC.htm

SOS is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/SOS.htm

[joehockey]

http://www.mghca.com/test/general/teamp ... team_id=64
Is Hopkins 19-3-1 Minnesota Scores or 18-3-2 MGHCA? Minnesota Scores has the Hopkins - GRG game as 5-4 win for Hopkins - MGHCA has 4-4 since after 1 overtime is was tied.

Should be a great game tonight Roseville vs Stillwater!

AA Lets Play Hockey Rank - Records from MGCHA - not sure these are right?
1 ROSEVILLE 22-1-1 (lost to Hopkins tied by Woodbury)
2 Stillwater 21-3-0 (lost to Hill Murray, Edina, Roseville)
3 Hopkins 18-3-2 (lost to Stillwater, Duluth, GRG, tied GRG, Edina)
4 Hill-Murray 20-3-0 (lost to Warroad, GRG, Edina)
5 Edina 14-6-5 (lost to Blake, Stillwater, Warroad, Hopkins, Roseville, Hill Murray, tied BSM, Centennial, R. Armstrong, Minnetonka, Hopkins)
6 Minnetonka 14-7-3
7 Centennial 16-3-3
8 Grand Rapids/Greenway 14-6-3
9 Duluth 17-4-3
10 Proctor/Hermantown 17-6-1
11 White Bear Lake
12 Eagan
13 Maple Grove
14 Bemidji
15 North Wright County
16 Blaine
17 Irondale
18 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
19 Cloquet
20 Mounds View

[ice29]

[quote="joehockey"]http://www.mghca.com/test/general/teamp ... team_id=64
Is Hopkins 19-3-1 Minnesota Scores or 18-3-2 MGHCA? Minnesota Scores has the Hopkins - GRG game as 5-4 win for Hopkins - MGHCA has 4-4 since after 1 overtime is was tied.

Should be a great game tonight Roseville vs Stillwater!

AA Lets Play Hockey Rank - Records from MGCHA - not sure these are right?
1 ROSEVILLE 22-1-1
2 Stillwater 21-3-0
3 Hopkins 18-3-2
4 Hill-Murray 20-3-0
5 Edina 14-6-5
6 Minnetonka 14-7-3
7 Centennial 16-3-3
8 Grand Rapids/Greenway 14-6-3
9 Duluth 17-4-3
10 Proctor/Hermantown 17-6-1
11 White Bear Lake
12 Eagan
13 Maple Grove
14 Bemidji
15 North Wright County
16 Blaine
17 Irondale
18 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
19 Cloquet
20 Mounds View[/quote

Did the game against Henry Sibley exist? MSHCA has a game played that ended in a 0-0 tie. That's why they have you at 2 tie's. Also the MSHSL doesn't recognize a win after the normal single overtime- a shot-out is not part of Minnesota State High School Hockey Guidelines, whether it be Girls or Boys.

[joehockey]

I think the two ties are GRG (I think this was 2 or 3 overtimes but it may have only been one and should be a win) in the Edina tourney and Edina last night or at least that is the MGHCA

[northhockey]

PHM beats Cloquet 7-2 and drops below them for the first time all season - the score must not have been entered by midnight...

[ghshockeyfan]

PHM beats Cloquet 7-2 and drops below them for the first time all season - the score must not have been entered by midnight...

Actually none of yesterdays scores were in at the end of the day wed when the most recent krach was run...

[ghshockeyfan]

I think the two ties are GRG (I think this was 2 or 3 overtimes but it may have only been one and should be a win) in the Edina tourney and Edina last night or at least that is the MGHCA

The grg and hopkins records are wrong and that holiday game isn't recorded as a tie on minnesota-scores.net but should be and both krach and qrf are giving hopkins an incorrect edge as a result but minnesota_scores won't fix it no matter how many times they are told its wrong

[hockeya1a]

I think the two ties are GRG (I think this was 2 or 3 overtimes but it may have only been one and should be a win) in the Edina tourney and Edina last night or at least that is the MGHCA

The grg and hopkins records are wrong and that holiday game isn't recorded as a tie on minnesota-scores.net but should be and both krach and qrf are giving hopkins an incorrect edge as a result but minnesota_scores won't fix it no matter how many times they are told its wrong

Don't they want their stats to be accurate? if not that makes them unreliable and useless.

[ghshockeyfan]

I think the two ties are GRG (I think this was 2 or 3 overtimes but it may have only been one and should be a win) in the Edina tourney and Edina last night or at least that is the MGHCA

The grg and hopkins records are wrong and that holiday game isn't recorded as a tie on minnesota-scores.net but should be and both krach and qrf are giving hopkins an incorrect edge as a result but minnesota_scores won't fix it no matter how many times they are told its wrong

Don't they want their stats to be accurate? if not that makes them unreliable and useless.

You'd think they'd want to but it may be that they're just sick of hearing aboutr score corrections from me all year! =)

[ghshockeyfan]

the MSHSL doesn't recognize a win after the normal single overtime- a shoot-out is not part of Minnesota State High School Hockey Guidelines, whether it be Girls or Boys.

100% correct - see:
http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic. ... c&start=49

...The third was again mostly dominated by GRG but Hopkins had the lead until 5 seconds left in regulation when GRG tied it up at 4. 8 minutes of 5v5 and 5 minutes of 4v4 the score still stood tied at 4. Finally Cara Johnson after four minutes of 3v3.

Sounds like a great game - the OT's are interesting too... For a while I thought that the MSHSL rules stated only SO's to decide tourney ties after the standard MSHSL 8 min 5v5 OT (except section and state play) but I must be wrong on that.

Here's the official word on OT's in non-section/state tourneys:

#1 NFHS rules are used for MSHSL hockey:
http://www.mshsl.org/mshsl/Publications ... s.doc?ne=2

BYLAW 402.00 CONTEST RULES

The following rules, except as modified by the League, shall govern all interschool competition in the respective sport or activity. (League rule modifications are printed in the current Athletic Rules and Policies Manual in the section designated for each activity.)

1. National Federation Rules Books:

Baseball
Basketball
Cheerleading (Spirit)
Cross Country Running
Football
Gymnastics, Girls
Hockey

#2 as described below NFHS pushes the decision on OT back to the MSHSL:

https://www.nfhs.org/custom/resourcelib ... 2biZJIw%3d

(note: might have to be a registered member to get to the link above...)

Page 53 2008-09 NFHS Ice Hockey Rules Rule 6-38
SECTION 38 TIED GAMES
ART. 1 . . . In case of a tie score at the end of the third period, if an overtime
is played, there shall be a three-minute intermission, ends shall not be changed,
and play shall be con tinued for not more than eight minutes. Teams shall remain
in the bench area between the end of the third period and the beginning of the
overtime period. The team that scores first wins, and the game is ended. If no
score is made in these eight minutes, the game shall be declared a tie.
NOTE: All tournament games shall be played under overtime policies adopted by the state
high school association.
PENALTY: If either team should decline to play the necessary extra period, the
game shall be declared a loss for that team, and the score shall be 1 to 0.
ART. 2 . . . If, in the opinion of the officials, the ice surface is unplayable, the
ice shall be resurfaced. The normal intermission shall be in effect.

#3 MSHSL had this on their site (has this changed?):

http://www.mshsl.org/mshsl/publications ... ey.htm?mj=*

Overtime Periods in School-Sponsored Tournament Play:

1. In case of a tie at the end of regular play during school sponsored tournament play the tie may be broken by the overtime tie breaking procedure as follows:

a. One 8-minute sudden death overtime period.
b. If still tied after 8-minutes: The Tournament Manager will conduct a shootout to determine the winner.
c. If a winner is decided by the use of a shootout, each team will record the contest as a tie. The score of the game will be the score at the end of overtime period.



In all cases where a shootout is used to determine a winner the game will be officially recorded as a tie. The score at the end of the 8-minute overtime period will be the official score for the contest.

[ghshockeyfan]

SO - running the exact same scores except changing the GRG/Hopkins game to be a tie vs a win:

Only impacts the order of the first 12 teams:

OLD NEW TEAM RECORD RATING CL S
1 1 Roseville 22-1-1 965.918 AA 4
2 2 Warroad 22-2-0 874.281 A 8
3 3 Stillwater Area 21-3-0 568.040 AA 4
5 4 Hill-Murray 20-3-0 501.326 AA 4
4 5 Hopkins 18-3-1 478.134 AA 6
6 6 Blake 21-2-0 406.006 A 5
7 7 Edina 14-6-4 323.589 AA 2
8 8 Breck 18-4-0 251.311 A 5
12 9 Grand Rapids/Greenway 14-6-3 218.203 AA 7
9 10 Minnetonka 14-6-3 216.655 AA 2
10 11 Centennial 17-3-3 213.668 AA 5
11 12 Roseau 19-5-0 200.967 A 8

[ghshockeyfan]

KRACH details are available at the bottom of any of the KRACH USCHO links but for example:

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=krach3w

Or... Here's the text & links:

The following statistical ranking is devised using an advanced mathematical method, which more fairly adjusts for imbalances in schedule strength than any other method currently in official use, including the system of comparisons (i.e. PWR http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=pwr3w) used by the NCAA. More details can be found below.

These rankings are not, in any way, part of the official NCAA selection process.

Key
RRWP - Round Robin Winning Percentage. What your theoretical winning percentage would be if you played every other team, one time each.
Ratio - The Ratio of wins to losses (as opposed to Win %, which is wins divided by games).
SOS - Strength of Schedule
Basic Explanation
KRACH -- or "Ken's Ratings for American College Hockey" -- is the implementation for college hockey of a sophisticated mathematical model known as the Bradley-Terry rating system, first applied to college hockey by a statistician named Ken Butler.

(Also see the more complete explanation. http://www.uscho.com/FAQs/?data=krach)
This method is based on a statistical technique called logistic regression, in essence meaning that teams' ratings are determined directly from their won-loss records against one another. A key feature of KRACH is that strength of schedule is calculated directly from the ratings themselves, meaning that KRACH, unlike many ratings (including RPI) cannot easily be distorted by teams with strong records against weak opposition.

The ratings are on an odds scale, so if Team A's KRACH rating is three times as large as Team B's, Team A would be expected to amass a winning percentage of .750 and Team B a winning percentage of .250 if it played each other enough times. The correct ratings are defined such that the "expected" winning percentage for a team in the games it's already played is equal to its "actual" winning percentage.

An alternative definition of a team's KRACH rating is as the product of its Winning Ratio (winning percentage divided by one minus winning percentage) with the weighted average of its opponents' KRACH ratings. (The definition of the weighting factor makes this equivalent to the first definition of the KRACH ratings.) In addition to KRACH and RRWP, the table above lists each team's Winning Percentage, Winning Ratio and Strength of Schedule (the aforementioned weighted average of their opponents' KRACH ratings).

Note: A team's record is based only on games against other Division III hockey schools which are eligible for the NCAA Tournament. In particular, only non-exhibition matchups between schools in the five conferences count towards a team's record as used in the KRACH on this page. Other games, including contests against Canadian schools and D-I and D-II programs, are not counted.

More detailed explanations of the KRACH ratings can be found under the following links

USCHO KRACH FAQ http://www.uscho.com/FAQs/?data=krach
Ken Butler http://www.mscs.dal.ca/~butler/krachexp.htm
John Whelan http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2004/krach

[ghshockeyfan]

This is only the Overall version - class, section, sos coming later...

Thru 2/10 including all regular season games:

http://www.bgoski.com/RANK_OA.htm