Another Way to Look at Peewee A teams March 03/Preregions

[frederick61]

Each of the four regional tourneys (North, East, South and West) is discussed below. The game schedules for each tourney is included. Part of the analysis provided, factors in the tourney schedule.

North Regional at International Falls
The district playoffs in the North Region produced a few surprises (Duluth East and International Falls), but not in the Red Division of the North Regional. That looks to be dominated by Roseau. The Rams hold one-sided wins over all three teams and are playing well. They have strung together a 14 game winning streak since losing to Chaska in their own tourney.

On the other side of the Red Division spectrum, Thief River Falls looks to struggle in all three Red Division games. The Prowlers are a .500 team that can compete with Hermantown and Virginia, but will have to beat both on a tough Friday to stay in the competition. That is a difficult task for the Prowlers.

Virginia has the ability to beat Thief River Falls and Hermantown. That makes Saturday’s game between the Blue Devils and the Hawks the key game for the #2 spot in the Red Division. The two teams have played twice this season with one game a tie and the other a single goal win for the Hawks. Trouble is both these games were played in the first half of the season. In peewee hockey, that is like an eon ago since peewee teams change rapidly and often during the season.

In their favor, the Hawks single handily eliminated top rated Cloquet in the D11 playoffs, but two weeks ago lost a 2-1 game to Grand Rapids. Virginia has played and beaten some tough teams this past month also, but have a 2-0 win over the same Thunderhawks a few days before they beat the Hawks. Roseau should take the pool and the Blue Devils take second.

Over in the Blue Division are the two surprises, Duluth East and International Falls. Duluth East is usually in the Regional playoffs, but has struggled this season. They beat rival Duluth Lakers and Hermantown in the D11 playoffs to take the #1 seed. But during the regular season this year, they were barely a .500 team. In the D11 playoffs, the Hounds defense carried them after a poor performance in the White Bear Lake tourney. Which defense will show for the Regional?

International Falls did it again this year. The Broncos had only beaten Eveleth on the season until they put a game together to beat Grand Rapids 5-4 in the district playoffs to gain the #3 D12 seed to the Regional. Now they will draw Duluth East, East Grand Forks and Hibbing in that order in the Blue Division and should struggle in all three games even with the advantage of the home ice and crowd.

East Grand Forks took an early February weekend swing through D11 and beat Cloquet, Hermantown and the Duluth Lakers. They hold a late November 8-5 win over Duluth East. But it is March. In the Blue Division, the Green Wave looks to be the best.

The Blue Division teams play one game on Friday and two games on Saturday. That puts Duluth East at a disadvantage having to play both Hibbing and East Grand Forks the same day. East Grand Forks catches the Hounds in the evening game and should have fresher legs. The #1 spot goes to the Green Wave and the #2 spot is a toss-up between Hibbing and Duluth East. The nod here goes to the Bluejackets. Even in International Falls, 160 miles from Duluth, the old Range versus Duluth rivalry exists. That should be enough to carry Hibbing in an intense game.

Friday March 6
10:00 Roseau versus Virginia
12:00 Hermantown versus Thief River Falls
2:00 Hibbing versus East Grand Forks
4:00 Duluth East versus International Falls
6:00 Roseau versus Hermantown
8:00 Virginia versus Thief River Falls

Saturday March 7
8:00 Duluth East versus Hibbing
10:00 International Falls versus East Grand Forks
12:00 Hermantown versus Virginia
2:00 Roseau versus Thief River Falls
4:00 East Grand Forks versus Duluth East
6:00 Hibbing versus International Falls

Sunday March 8
12:00 Roseau beats Hibbing. The Rams are good.
2:00 Virginia beats East Grand Forks. The Blue Devils make a solid defensive effort in front of a supporting crowd.

East Regional at Cottage Grove
One of the most dramatically changed facilities is Cottage Grove. The darkish entry to a single sheet of ice that overlooked the south end of the rink has been replaced. There are now three sheets and some confusion mostly because of the glass wall that replaced the dingy windows overlooking the original sheet. It is little confusing and a little unorthodox entry for most ice arenas, but nice.

Sort of like the entries in the East Regional this year, confusing but nice. Last year, D2 sent Roseville, North St. Paul and White Bear Lake. No surprises. This year D2 sends Moundsview, Stillwater and Forest Lake. Three surprises. Last year D8 sent Woodbury and Eagan (only two seeds). This year D8 sends Woodbury, Eagan and Inver Grove Who? For those following D8, Woodbury is no surprise, even Inver Grove Heights was whispered about enough to be only a mild surprise, but Eagan is a surprise. D6 at least delivered as expected, the top two teams from regular season, Burnsville and Edina, just a little bruised from D6 playoff action.

Burnsville is the principle beneficiary of the “surprises”. One of the top teams in the state, the Blaze draw Eagan in the opening round on Friday morning, Stillwater Friday evening and Inver Grove Heights on Saturday. The Blaze has a 13-game winning streak going and has beaten Eagan 9-4 and Stillwater 1-0. But those were early season wins.

Stillwater can challenge the Blaze. The Ponies beat White Bear Lake 3-2 in the D2 semifinals before losing the championship game to Moundsview. They came back to beat Forest Lake 4-1 to take the #2 seed. But it should be noted that in one of the Duluth tourneys (early January), the Ponies lost to two D8 teams, Lakeville North and Woodbury in pool play.

Just six weeks ago, the Eagan Wildcats were dumped 10-4 by Mpls Park in the St. Cloud tourney. They struggled ever since, but managed to put it together in the D8 playoffs with an 8-2 win over Farmington, an overtime 5-4 win over Rochester, and a semifinal win over Rosemount 4-1 before losing to Woodbury 4-2 in the championship game.

Inver Grove Heights had a tougher road. They opened with an 8-0 win over Northfield, a 2-1 double OT win over Lakeville North, a 7-0 loss to Woodbury, a 6-3 win over Lakeville North (eliminating North) and a 7-6 double overtime win over Lakeville South (eliminating South). Congratulations to the Heights, it has been a long time since they have had a team in the Regions and remember they call themselves the Heights because it is a mix of South St. Paul and Inver Grove Heights kids on this team. So in the same greeting is a “welcome back Packers, you have been missed”.

Both Eagan and the Heights are wild cards in the Red Division, but if form is followed, Burnsville should take the #1 spot and Stillwater the #2 spot.

By the way, D8 is to be congratulated for how they handle overtimes, no shoot outs, no 4 or 4 periods or 3 on 3 periods. Each overtime period is 10 minute long. Each overtime period is stop time. Each overtime period both teams play 5 on 5. The ice is cleaned every two periods. The teams play until someone scores. That’s hockey. D6 falls down on overtimes. They play three overtime periods (usually five minutes long) starting with 5 on 5, then 4 on 4 and then 3 on 3. If it is still tied after three periods, the team with the higher seed in the tourney advances. That’s not hockey.

Now, off the soap box and onto the Blue Division. The good news in the Blue Division is that a scrappy team from Forest Lake finally made the Regions. Another congratulations go out to the Lakers. Unfortunately, they ended up in the big water for the three teams they play are all top teams playing well. One team the Lakers know is the #1 D2 seed Moundsview. The Mustangs came onto the peewee scene with a great Bloomington tourney where they took second losing to Woodbury 2-1. After that tourney, they went into a January funk where in the span of nine games, they had one win, two loses and six ties. For the Mustangs, that was just like last year, when more then half of their D2 league games ended in ties.

The Mustangs open with the Lakers on Friday and should win. They beat the Lakers 4-3 and 5-1 in the past two weeks. That gives them the luxury of watching Edina beat Woodbury and sets up the key game next day with Woodbury. It will be a return match from the Bloomington Championship game, only with a state entry ticket at stake. The Mustangs should win.

But a loss to Woodbury may not put the Mustangs out of the chase, they could upend the Hornets at the end of the day throwing this bracket into a three-way tie. An interesting side note, of the three teams (Edina, Moundsview and Woodbury), only the Hornets have a non-parent coach.

Woodbury has lost to Edina three times this season, an early season 4-1 loss, a mid season 7-5 loss and a 6-3 loss in early February in the White Bear Lake tourney championship game. They have played well, but are unlikely to beat Edina in their regional opener on Friday. That sets up the make or break game with Moundsview and if the Mustangs are healthy, they will be a handful.

Edina has found a way to stay in the game and the Blue Division draw favors them immensely. They should advance unless Moundsview upends them Saturday night and they lose the tie breakers. That’s why peewee hockey is fun. Kids swing on a dime. The Wildcats did.

Friday March 6
10:00 Burnsville versus Eagan
12:00 Inver Grove Heights versus Stillwater
2:00 Woodbury versus Edina
4:00 Moundsview versus Forest Lake
6:00 Burnsville versus Stillwater
8:00 Inver Grove Heights versus Eagan

Saturday March 7
8:00 Woodbury versus Moundsview
10:00 Forest Lake versus Edina
12:00 Eagan versus Stillwater
2:00 Inver Grove Heights versus Burnsville
4:00 Edina versus Moundsview
6:00 Woodbury versus Forest Lake

Sunday March 8
12:00 Burnsville versus Moundsview-This will be a tough victory for the Blaze. But their over all team quickness to the puck plus the ability to put on the ice at a moment’s notice, the top line in the state give them the skills to beat the larger Mustang team.
2:00 Edina versus Stillwater-These two teams have yet to play each other this season. It is unlikely that Stillwater can surprise the Hornets. The Hornet’s edge in skills and passing should give them the win in a very ordinary game.

West Regional at Park Rapids
In the Red Division, Moorhead is the underdog in all its games (Blaine, Centennial and Wayzata). The Spuds sort of laid in the weeds in D15 and then made what appeared to be a year end rush, but all they did was to finally report their scores. At the St. Cloud tourney a month ago, the Spuds scored only one surprise, a upset opening win over Inver Grove Heights (D8 #3 seed), then lost three straight to Hopkins, Rogers and Osseo/Maple Grove.

Centennial comes in the back door of the D10 playoffs with the #3 seed, losing to Elk River 7-2 on the weekend. Centennial opens their West Regional play against a tough Wayzata team and needs to win. A loss to the Trojans would put them into a must win situation against Blaine on Saturday.

Wayzata drew the short straw in West Regional. The Trojans have to play two tough teams on Friday, Centennial and then Blaine. Winning those two games, should guarantee them a berth to the state tourney. But the second game will be against Blaine who will have had the advantage of playing Moorhead earlier in the day.

Blaine looks to be playing the best of all the teams. The Bengals hold a late season win over Centennial 6-3 and beat Elk River 3-2 in the D10 championship game. The next day, the Elks beat Centennial 7-1 to take the #2 seed into this region. Blaine will have the advantage when the two teams meet at the end of Friday’s play. They should be coming off a win over Moorhead. Wayzata will be coming off a tough game with Centennial, a team that they have beaten twice before. Blaine should take the #1 spot in the Red Division, Wayzata the #2.

Over in the Blue Division, two of the top teams in the state take on two of the top three D15 teams. Fergus Falls ticket to the West Regional is stamped D15 #3. And the ticket is a walk into the a “valley of two giants”, Elk River and Osseo/Maple Grove. The third team, Brainerd, the Otters have lost to two times (5-1 and 4-1) and have beaten once 4-3, is not exactly their size. The Otters will struggle to win a game.

Brainerd has had a great season, posting over 35 wins while losing a half dozen or so. The Warriors have continued to work hard, but for it to payoff, they will need to beat either Elk River or Osseo/Maple Grove. Until the end of January, OMG looked to be vulnerable especially after a dismal showing in the St. Cloud tourney (losing to St. Cloud 6-0, Moundsview 4-1 and Minnetonka 3-2 before blowing Moorhead out 12-4 in a consolation game), but they have now strung a 7-game winning streak together including a 6-2 win over Wayzata in the D3 Championship game. Are “they back”?

OMG has the divisional schedule advantage, playing Fergus Falls on Friday in their only game. Then OMG opens Saturday against Brainerd who will be coming off a tough Friday game with Elk River. This Saturday morning game will be one of two test to see if OMG is “back”. Winning this game would leave OMG and Elk River game late Saturday a game for the Blue Division #1 or #2 spot. Both teams would play Sunday. Elk River has been a steady performing team all season, in their league, in non-league games and in D10 play. The Elks should get the #1 spot.

Friday March 6
10:00 Blaine versus Moorhead
12:00 Wayzata versus Centennial
2:00 Brainerd versus Elk River
4:00 Osseo/Maple Grove versus Fergus Falls
6:00 Blaine versus Wayzata
8:00 Moorhead versus Centennial

Saturday March 7
8:00 Osseo/Maple Grove versus Brainerd
10:00 Fergus Falls versus Elk River
12:00 Wayzata versus Moorhead
2:00 Blaine versus Centennial
4:00 Elk River versus Osseo/Maple Grove
6:00 Brainerd versus Fergus Falls

Sunday March 8
12:00 Blaine versus Osseo/Maple Grove-In the first of two extremely tough Sunday games, the nod has to go to the Bengels. But I would not recommend betting any “shrinking 401K funds” on the outcome.
2:00 Elk River versus Wayzata-This is a repeat of the Edina Championship game (won by Elk River 4-1) and a repeat of the Roseau quarterfinal round game (won by Wayzata 2-1). The two teams met in the Edina tourney and played as good as peewee hockey game as two peewee teams can play. There were few stoppages of play. This game should be the best played game in the regions. But who wins? So, as a result of the coin flip, the Trojans get the nod hopefully in front a large cheering crowd of Park Rapids hockey fans standing on their seats (in Park Rapids, the locals stand on their seat, they never sit down on them to watch a game and the arena can hold 2500 people).

South Regional at Mankato
The South Regional is the “home of D4”. Unless Minnesota Hockey changes the Regional format, D4 will be synonymous with the South for at least another five years. The problem D4 has is that in three of the four year cycle, they have to host D3, then D8 then D6 in successive years. This year they don’t host any of those districts and it has resulted in potentially the wildest most unpredictable, region this year.

To start, this year D4 has three entries, courtesy of D1’s generosity to put their number #3 South Regional seed up to the winner of a game between the two #3 seeds (from D1 and D4). This past Sunday, D4 New Prague beat D1 Richfield-Washburn 8-3 to take the seed.

The three D4 teams (Mankato, Owatonna and New Prague) have been beating each other. New Prague looked to the dominant D4 team and as expected walked off with the D4 regular season title, in part because Mankato sagged as the season ended winning only three of their last nine games to end the season at .500. The Mavericks regrouped and focused the last ten days of their season on practice. It paid off as they swept through the D4 playoffs beating New Ulm 3-1, upsetting New Prague 5-4 and beating Owatonna 4-3.

The Mavericks reward for taking the #1 D4 seed was a tough draw in the Blue Division, playing mysterious Highland, Buffalo and their D4 nemesis New Prague. But the first look is at the Red Division.

In the Red Division, Mpls Park has been tough all year playing tough competition. Their best tourney performance was in St. Cloud a month ago. In pool play, the Storm beat Grand Forks 7-3, Buffalo 5-3 and lost to Burnsville 9—5 (D6 #1). In the consolation round, they beat Eagan (D8 #2) 10-4 and lost to Rogers 8-5. Playing in D3 for this year, the Storm went 7-5-2 and took third place edging out Armstrong. Mpls Park has the pedigree. But can they win. Their first game is against Owatonna, a team that has worked harder as the season progressed and is much improved.

Owatonna took a short foray into Wisconsin last weekend and came away with a 2-2 tie of a tough Hudson team that led the D8 standings for the first third of the year and beat two of the D8 regional entries (Woodbury and Inver Grove Heights) in regular season play.

St. Michael/Albertville is a surprise team out of D5. They were seeded #5 in the D5 playoffs and beat Sartell (a team that was playing well as the season ended) 6-5 and #2 seed Crow River 4-1 to take the #3 seed to the South tourney. Monticello, Annandale & Maple Lake or MALM is no surprise. They were the favorites in their side of the D5 playoffs and beat Mound Westonka 4-2 and Hutchinson 7-0 to gain the #2 D5 seed to the South.

In the Red Division Friday games, the Mpls Park/Owatonna game is key. Played in Mankato in front of D4 fans, it should be a close match. But if the Storm’s defense holds, they should have enough fire power to win. But the Storm should not overlook MALM in the evening game. The Stars are a tough team. Their only loss in their last 13 games was a 7-2 loss to Roseau in the championship game of the Warroad tourney three weeks ago.

The most likely scenario in the Red Division is for Park to take the first two games on Friday. If that happens and Owatonna can come back in the nightcap to beat STMA, then the path is clear for the winner of Saturday’s game between Owatonna and MALM to take the #2 spot in the Red Division. Owatonna should win, but barely. One thing is clear in the Red, if Park slips just a little, the Division goes wide open and could get to a fourth or fifth tie breaker to figure out “who is on first”.

The problem is (and to the delight of most fans and to the angst of all the South team’s coaches) the Blue Division is really no different. Mankato, if they play well at home in front a cheering home crowd, puts all four teams (Mankato, Highland, Buffalo and New Prague) in contention.

New Prague has been consistently dominant in their games all season. The Trojans have played a solid schedule most of the year and played well until the past two weeks (they lost to Hastings 7-2 two weeks ago, before being beaten by Mankato for the second time this year 5-4 in the D5 playoffs). Highland remains the mystery team since they play in a public darkness. They had some notable wins over Mpls Park (8-4) and Cottage Grove (6-2). But that was early in the year. They failed to beat the Storm in their last two games. The Capitals did make a trip to Thunder Bay and beat three 96AA teams two weekends ago. They also beat Buffalo 3-2 at the end of January.

The Bison had it easy come playoff time. They won the D5 regular season title and automatically got the D5 #1 seed to the South. They played a couple of games in the three weeks since the close of the season, losing one to Orono 3-0. But the Bison have been mostly practicing since then. During the season, besides losing to Highland, Buffalo also lost to Mpls Park in the St. Cloud tourney 5-3 at the end of January. The Bison lost to Burnsville 4-1 and Grand Forks 6-3 in that tourney. Buffalo had a winning season, but most of their wins came in D5 league play.

That could be the Bison’s problem in the Blue Division. They play no D5 teams in divisional play and could lose all three games. If that happens and Highland beats Mankato in the opener, then Saturday’s morning matchup between New Prague/Highland becomes key.

A win by New Prague then pits Mankato/New Prague in a Saturday evening game where Mankato needs to win to throw the division into a three-way tie breaker with two teams in and one team out. A win by Highland throws the Mankato/New Prague game into a fight for the #2 spot. After a triple coin flip (the first fell off the desk), the #1 spot goes to Mankato (as the result of a third or fourth tie breaker and the #2 to New Prague. But to all the Capitial and Bison fans, what does a coin know? Tough, tough division to figure out.

Friday March 6
10:00 Mpls Park versus Owatonna
12:00 St. Michael/Albertville versus MALM
2:00 Mankato versus Highland
4:00 Buffalo versus New Prague
6:00 Mpls Park versus MALM
8:00 Owatonna versus St. Michael/Albertville

Saturday March 7
8:00 Buffalo versus Mankato
10:00 New Prague versus Highland
12:00 MALM versus Owatonna
2:00 St. Michael/Albertville versus Mpls Park
4:00 Highland versus Buffalo
6:00 Mankato versus New Prague

Sunday March 8
12:00 Mpls Park versus New Prague in a very emotional game and spirited game where Park wins in a high scoring game (something like 7-6)
2:00 Mankato versus Owatonna for a seed to the state tourney played at Mankato. I wonder if there will be a string of cars heading west on Highway 14 mid-Sunday morning. The coin was put away, the internal writer's tragedy streak given into on this game. In front of cheering Maverick fans and growling Huskies, Owatonna takes the game.

[no-fly-bys]

THANK YOU!! Fred.. That was better than chocolate!!

[HustleandFlow]

Fred you are amazing. This post had me drooling after the first paragraph. I don't even have to go watch the Peewee state tournament with the info you provide. Thank you for the tireless effort you put into this information.

[TTpuckster]

Thanks Fred.

As usual, great summary.

Of course my only disagreement is that, as I have said in another thread:

In the north region, I expect EGF will win over Virginia to go to state.

I'm am hoping because I believe the PeeWee A tourney is in New Hope, so I would be able to make it there this year.

[elliott70]

From the North - Roseau and East Grand Forks.

No one in the other division other than Roseau can beat them.
EGF is the only team in the north region that could beat Roseau.

Roseau #1
EGF #2

No one else will be close.

[bluemancrew]

Good luck EGF....but I wouldn't take Hibbing or Virginia lightly. I'll save my cheers for the weekend.

[starmvp]

Wow fred, you must spend a lot of time on your weekly updates.

[mplsparkpride7]

yea fred how do u do this??

[Bluejay]

That was fabulous information! Thanks!

[DMom]

Fabulous Fred, you are the best, now if we can stay scrappy for another couple of games

[elliott70]

Fabulous Fred, you are the best, now if we can stay scrappy for another couple of games

Is the kid from Forest Lake that got blasted, okay?

[DMom]

Fabulous Fred, you are the best, now if we can stay scrappy for another couple of games

Is the kid from Forest Lake that got blasted, okay?

Well enough to get his hair dyed black last night with his teammates Back to school today. He should be cleared for contact on Friday morning, in time for Regions.

[elliott70]

Fabulous Fred, you are the best, now if we can stay scrappy for another couple of games

Is the kid from Forest Lake that got blasted, okay?

Well enough to get his hair dyed black last night with his teammates Back to school today. He should be cleared for contact on Friday morning, in time for Regions.

I am cheering for him and his teammates.

[pondhockey7]

Watch out in the North Region, Virginia is rolling into town with momentum thanks to the awesome performance by the High School Team this year.

Good Luck at Regions Peewees and Bantams, Best of Luck at State High School.

[PuckBag and a DozenSticks]

Hey pal can I put that special hat you have on once for our team? GREAT JOB . $'s dad

[crw]

St Michael-Albertville just beat MAML(Monticello/Maple lake) 3-2

[icedad]

Fred-

All I can say is that YOU R AMAZING. I was at the West Regional and you called Sunday perfectly from match-ups to ourcomes. Yer scarry man. Nice job. Good luck to all in two weeks at New Hope.

[OU812]

Nice job in the South Region Fred. You called three of the four final teams, New Prague, Owatonna and Mpls Park.

[Zgoal557]

Reference, "Sunday March 8
12:00 Roseau beats Hibbing. The Rams are good.
2:00 Virginia beats East Grand Forks. The Blue Devils make a solid defensive effort in front of a supporting crowd"
Sorry, Fred. What happened to Hibbing and Virginia? They both looked like contenders at the Eveleth Tournament.

Reference, "zgoal just for get what i said its not that big of a deal. sometimes i see things i just get the erge to jump at for one reason or another. im sure the boy is a great player and i hope he makes it to the big show!!!!!"

And sorry, Watchdog, but I'm picking Roseau for the State Championship.

[frederick61]

Zgoal557
The first side of my north prediction was correct, but almost everybody would pick Roseau to come out of the north regional. The Rams rolled on Friday, beating Virginia 12-1 and Hermantown 8-0. They followed that up by beating Thief River Falls 8-1 on Saturday and Duluth East 10-0 on Sunday. I would point out that after Roseau took a tough a couple of losses in the Eden Prairie Thanksgiving Tourney (5-1 to Wayzata and 10-1 to Elk River), I was one of the first to come out with a flat statement that the Rams would be in the tourney and they would be the #1 team in the state. I haven’t changed my mind. So the Rams were an easy pick in the North Region.

The flip side of the North Region was a decision between Virginia, Hibbing and East Grand Forks. I did not believe either Duluth East or Hermantown would make it this year. And said so. Note, they did not make it out of the Regions. But I felt that Virginia in the Red Division or Hibbing in the Blue Division could advance.

Then Thief River Falls knocked out Virginia on Friday by dealing the Blue Devils their second loss 5-0. It was a game I thought the Blue Devils would win and that would set up a game for #2 in the Red Division with Hermantown. It didn’t happen. Because of their loss 5-0 loss, the only way the Blue Devils could have advanced was to beat Hermantown by more then seven goals on Saturday. They lost 6-3 and Hermantown advanced. By the way, if the Blue Devils had beaten the Hawks by less then seven goals, Thief River Falls would have played on Sunday.

If you turn to the Blue Division play, there were two key games, East Grand Forks versus Hibbing on Friday and Hibbing versus Duluth East on Saturday. I gave the Green Wave a win over Duluth East, but could not give the win to Hibbing over Duluth East. That meant the winner of Friday’s East Grand Forks/Hibbing game would have the advantage. And I thought the Bluejackets would win that game. They lost 3-2 and could not rally to comeback against Duluth East Saturday morning losing 6-0.

Since International Falls was likely to and were beaten by all three other teams in the Blue Division, the Hounds win over Hibbing gave them the #2 seed. Note that East Grand Forks did not have it easy in winning the #2 North seed. The Green Wave won three of the four games by identical 3-2 scores (Hibbing, Duluth East and Hermantown), and that if the Bluejackets had beaten East Grand Forks 3-2 and the other games outcome remained the same, then Hibbing and Duluth East would have advanced to Sunday play and East Grand Forks would have gone home.

The Green Wave is a good team and they are returning for the second year in a row to the state tourney. I have not seen them play this year. Last year they opened the tourney against Edina, played well for most of the first two periods and lost 7-0. This year the Green Wave open the tourney again only against Mpls Park. The Storm is a dangerous team and have some talented players, both offensive and defensive. They tend to be a high scoring team. It showed in the South Regional when they beat Owatonna 8-2, MAML 9-1, St. Micheal/Albertville 9-2 and New Prague 4-0. The game with East Grand Forks will be an interesting battle. Depending on how well the Storm defense plays, Mpls Park could knock them out and gain the semifinals.

So, Zgoal557, what is your view of the state tourney besides picking Roseau to win?

[MNWILD2009]

Zgoal557
The first side of my north prediction was correct, but almost everybody would pick Roseau to come out of the north regional. The Rams rolled on Friday, beating Virginia 12-1 and Hermantown 8-0. They followed that up by beating Thief River Falls 8-1 on Saturday and Duluth East 10-0 on Sunday. I would point out that after Roseau took a tough a couple of losses in the Eden Prairie Thanksgiving Tourney (5-1 to Wayzata and 10-1 to Elk River), I was one of the first to come out with a flat statement that the Rams would be in the tourney and they would be the #1 team in the state. I haven’t changed my mind. So the Rams were an easy pick in the North Region.

The flip side of the North Region was a decision between Virginia, Hibbing and East Grand Forks. I did not believe either Duluth East or Hermantown would make it this year. And said so. Note, they did not make it out of the Regions. But I felt that Virginia in the Red Division or Hibbing in the Blue Division could advance.

Then Thief River Falls knocked out Virginia on Friday by dealing the Blue Devils their second loss 5-0. It was a game I thought the Blue Devils would win and that would set up a game for #2 in the Red Division with Hermantown. It didn’t happen. Because of their loss 5-0 loss, the only way the Blue Devils could have advanced was to beat Hermantown by more then seven goals on Saturday. They lost 6-3 and Hermantown advanced. By the way, if the Blue Devils had beaten the Hawks by less then seven goals, Thief River Falls would have played on Sunday.

If you turn to the Blue Division play, there were two key games, East Grand Forks versus Hibbing on Friday and Hibbing versus Duluth East on Saturday. I gave the Green Wave a win over Duluth East, but could not give the win to Hibbing over Duluth East. That meant the winner of Friday’s East Grand Forks/Hibbing game would have the advantage. And I thought the Bluejackets would win that game. They lost 3-2 and could not rally to comeback against Duluth East Saturday morning losing 6-0.

Since International Falls was likely to and were beaten by all three other teams in the Blue Division, the Hounds win over Hibbing gave them the #2 seed. Note that East Grand Forks did not have it easy in winning the #2 North seed. The Green Wave won three of the four games by identical 3-2 scores (Hibbing, Duluth East and Hermantown), and that if the Bluejackets had beaten East Grand Forks 3-2 and the other games outcome remained the same, then Hibbing and Duluth East would have advanced to Sunday play and East Grand Forks would have gone home.

The Green Wave is a good team and they are returning for the second year in a row to the state tourney. I have not seen them play this year. Last year they opened the tourney against Edina, played well for most of the first two periods and lost 7-0. This year the Green Wave open the tourney again only against Mpls Park. The Storm is a dangerous team and have some talented players, both offensive and defensive. They tend to be a high scoring team. It showed in the South Regional when they beat Owatonna 8-2, MAML 9-1, St. Micheal/Albertville 9-2 and New Prague 4-0. The game with East Grand Forks will be an interesting battle. Depending on how well the Storm defense plays, Mpls Park could knock them out and gain the semifinals.

So, Zgoal557, what is your view of the state tourney besides picking Roseau to win?

Hi Fred, what are yout thoughts on the final 8?

[frederick61]

I plan to post something in the next few days.

[Zgoal557]

First Round Picks:

MP vs. EGF- Both teams play moderate schedules. MP has been scoring well, but they better not rely on a hot goalie in this game. I give it to EGF.

Blaine vs. Woodbury- The last time these teams met, it was a tie, and they play similar schedules. No tie this time. Woodbury shows strength in beating a strong across the border team, twice. Nod goes to Woodbury.

Roseau vs. Owatonna- Hang in their Huskies. You will be joining an elite crowd that includes the Hornets and the Trojans.

Edina vs. Wayzata- The Trojans are working to outscore the Hornets. If they focus on their "D", my nod goes to Wayzata.

Note: I thought the North picks were good. I saw both teams play South teams in Eveleth. Just curious, what happened.

[elliott70]

First Round Picks:

MP vs. EGF- Both teams play moderate schedules. MP has been scoring well, but they better not rely on a hot goalie in this game. I give it to EGF.

Blaine vs. Woodbury- The last time these teams met, it was a tie, and they play similar schedules. No tie this time. Woodbury shows strength in beating a strong across the border team, twice. Nod goes to Woodbury.

Roseau vs. Owatonna- Hang in their Huskies. You will be joining an elite crowd that includes the Hornets and the Trojans.

Edina vs. Wayzata- The Trojans are working to outscore the Hornets. If they focus on their "D", my nod goes to Wayzata.

Note: I thought the North picks were good. I saw both teams play South teams in Eveleth. Just curious, what happened.

Roseau is a lot better than everyone else up north.
East Grand Forks is better than everyone except Roseau.
The two best teams won out and get to go to state.

[ARoyalPain]

Fred61, looking forward to another insightful article. Hope to see one before the PWA state tournament.