bluelineenvy wrote:PuckRanger
Very good take on Virginia/LF game. I have not seen Virginia play, and it sounds as if they are a very tough out. But I am curious to know if you have seen Alex or SCC play this year, because you could describe both of those teams almost the same as you did Virginia (except for maybe the 4th line bit).
I was able to see SCC a couple of times, but, unfortunately, I have only seen Alexandria in some bits and pieces on tape since they didn't play anyone from up north. I was very impressed with what I've seen out of SCC, and I definitely think they are one of the teams to beat. They are very similar to Virginia in many regards, but just a little more high-end talent and a little less depth. The problem is LF played SCC so early in the season, its hard to say the result would be the same if they played now. My gut feeling is that it wouldn't.
bluelineenvy wrote:And you also mentioned how much the BlueDevils have improved since the beginning of the year, do you think that LF hasn't? For one LF's 1st & 2nd lines will probably play as much if not more than they did in the first meeting with Virginia, and they are now in MUCH better condition than they were at the beginng of the year.
I'm sure LF has improved some over the course of the year, but its really tough to say just how much. The only measuring stick in the second half of the season is a pair of games with Alexandria - and they seemed to have gotten closer as the season wound down, where as Virginia seemed to grow by leaps and bounds (they are a still a fairly young team with 7 sophomores and 5 juniors that play regularly, so there was a ton of room for improvement). Some of the teams that Virginia lost to or were close to at the beginning of the season, they have defeated fairly handily later in the season.
bluelineenvy wrote:Second, LF's third line I believe is different from the one that played in Virginia, and they are playing really well as of late, much improved over what was seen in the beginning of the year.
Third-Correct me if I'm wrong but if LF is the one seed, and indeed the home team, they will be able to put the third line out in better match-ups/situations then they were able to in the game at Virginia.
Having the last change won't benefit Little Falls all that much because of Virginia's depth. Virginia will roll their four lines just the same. Other than the opening face off, they really don't line-match that much until very late in the game - if its close. You would see Hanowksi's line out against all four lines throughout the game regardless. None of these lines were together back in December, and there were a handful of kids playing in their first or second varsity game for Virginia. Also, that entire game was played on the PP and PK, so line matching didn't play much of a roll. Games played this time of year tend to be much less penalty filled, so I doubt that will be the case here.
From what I've seen, the third line of LF doesn't play a ton in close games. Kind of reminds me of Hibbing/Chisholm -- and when their third line got out against Virginia in the section final, they were bottled up in their own end almost immediately by Virginia's 4th line and then by the top line.
I think talent-wise, LF has the better top line, but Virginia has the better 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. It will be hard to do anything with the line matching for coach Couture, because Virginia will be running shorter shifts - and really, who do you match up with? -- There just isn't much difference after the top line. Do you run that top line out against Virginia's top line and risk getting them worn down playing in their own end? Or do you send them out against one of the other three - who haven't been scored on in almost two months? ... and which line do you throw the third line out against? I see no clear advantage for LF in any of the matchups.
bluelineenvy wrote:I expect this to be a great game (1-2 goal margin at the most) and will cheer for Virginia to win it all if they beat LF. If LF can stay out of the box so the 1st & 2nd lines don't get worn out on the PK, LF wins. If not, Virginia has a great chance to win.
Don't get me wrong here, Virginia isn't going to dominate this thing from start to finish - LF will get their chances. It really should be a good game. I just think in the end, Virginia has better goaltending, wears them down, and takes over late. But hey, we can't play this thing for them on paper, they will play it on the ice, and high school hockey can be very unpredictable. Ya never know, maybe Virginia will come out and stare at the lights, crowd, and TV cameras for the first period and dig themselves a hole they can't climb out of. You just don't know -- That's what makes it fun to watch!
As far as the Greenway thing you mentioned in your next post, I wouldn't put much stock in that. I saw Greenway play a handful of times this season and they don't compare with anyone or anything related to this tournament. Their goaltender got hot for about three weeks and allowed them to pull off an upset and stay close with a few higher-end teams. I believe Greenway was outshot in the neighborhood of 50-15 in both games when Virginia played them. The final scores may look close, but the play was as about as lopsided as it gets. The shot totals were about the same when Little Falls played them. I should point out, it is precisely these games where lines three and four played a ton and got better for Virginia, where as LF ran out the Hanowski line and ran up the score.
. I expect them to dominate from the drop of the puck to the final buzzer. It's been a good run for Virginia, but the big stage will be too much for them.