AA Rankings for 12/20/09

Post by **karl(east)** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 12:48 pm

I've mentioned over the past few weeks that things weren't really too complicated in the early going. Well, that changed this week. We're at the point where there aren't many unblemished teams left, but the web of common opponents isn't all that large, either. Because of that, these are probably the most arbitrary rankings of the year. Bear with them. There aren't many games this week, but there are enough important ones that it's worthwhile issuing rankings today and next Sunday as well.

The records appearing after the team names are 1) overall record, and 2) record vs. a group of about 25 top teams in the state.

1. Minnetonka (6-0/2-0)
-Staved off a possible upset at the hands of St. Thomas and now stand alone as the undisputed #1 in Minnesota. The schedule doesn't get much easier this week, with Blaine on the docket.
This week: Tues at #3 Blaine

2. Hill-Murray (7-0-1/1-0-1)
-This seems a bit artificially high, but with everyone else in front of them going down, they fall in to the 2-spot. I also think the assets of this team--depth, good coaching--are going to pay off in the long run. The Schwan Cup should tell us just how good they really are.
This week: Idle

3. Blaine (5-0/2-0)
-Another team that I'm not sure deserves this high a ranking; they've scraped by a couple of good-but-not-great teams and beaten up on the lower portions of the NWSC as expected. The good news: we'll definitely find out this week, as they face both Minnetonka and Edina.
This week: vs. #1 Minnetonka, at #7 Edina

4. Wayzata (5-0-1/4-0-1)
-Have played excellently through a rough early stretch, and Edina's win in the Holiday Classic makes their easy handling of Edina look that much more impressive. They finally get something of a respite this week, though the St. Louis Park Tourney will test just how far they've actually climbed.
This week: Tues vs. Roseville

5. Bloomington Jefferson (6-1/2-1)
-Their dominance over the rest of their opponents leads me to think the Eagan game was more of a fluke than anything. But they do need to pay a penalty for that loss; hence the drop to number 5. I'm excited to find out what they can do in a major tournament--something that was missing from their schedule last year.
This week: Idle

6. Edina (7-1/5-1)
-Look who's back on the state scene, despite all the graduations. They used their depth to their advantage and won their own holiday classic. This week, they look to knock of a #3-ranked team for the second week in a row; if they manage it, look out.
This week: vs. #3 Blaine

7. Eden Prairie (5-1/2-1)
-A poorer than expected showing at the EHC drives the Eagles further down the rankings, and suddenly this season looks a lot less certain. They'll need to show a lot more in the coming weeks to come out of an unforgiving section 6.
This week: Tues vs. Burnsville

8. Holy Angels (3-0/0-0)
-The smooth sailing through the Missota is now interrupted by a stretch of 5 out of 6 games against excellent teams. The test begins on Tuesday against a limping Elk River squad. Time to see how good this team really is and to rank them on something other than expectations and what the teams around them are doing.
This week: Wed vs. #14 Elk River

9. Cretin-Derham Hall (7-0/2-0)
-I have a lot to say here, but it's worth saying.

In ranking teams, I'm inherently going to get a ton of things wrong. I'm fine with that; it's the way it works. Ranking teams involves taking a heap of very incomplete information and trying to correctly guess what's going to happen. After games happen, I am confronted with a new set of hopefully slightly less incomplete information, and build from there. The mistakes of the previous week are understandable, and accepted as part of the process. Up until now, I've stood by all the rankings I've made...sure a lot of them have been wrong, but given the information at the time, I still think I made the right decision based on the criteria I use.

Except last week, with my ranking of CDH at #15.

When the season started, I had CDH higher than any of the other published rankings out there; I was the only person with them in the top ten. There was a reason for this. While I knew that other teams were probably more talented than CDH, I put them up that high mostly because of the experience factor. Last year, when 3AA was wide open, with Woodbury slumping down the stretch and Apple Valley still a little ways away from having a shot, CDH stepped into the gap and won. Some people will argue that what happened in the past shouldn't matter, but history tells us that a team--particularly a relatively young one--that steps into a vacuum and takes control usually stays in control for a few years. I could go on and on with examples of this if I wanted to, but it's often the case, even if the talent level is inferior. Last week, I forgot about this and judged CDH solely on a couple of less-than-inspiring wins. And I ended up looking very wrong, when they came out and calmly dispatched of Benilde. So I've learned my lesson.

This doesn't mean CDH is a lock to win the SEC or 3AA; despite the gaudy record, it's not hard to see the cracks in the walls. But with the section and the conference in disarray and enough talent to at least play with the top teams in the state, they're the frontrunners until anyone convinces me otherwise. And it'll take a lot more than a couple of closer-than-expected CDH wins to do that.
This week: Idle

10. Benilde-St. Margaret's (4-1-1/1-1-1)
-The loss to Cretin was a pretty big hit to a team with a relatively weak schedule. They've proven they can beat up on low- and mid-evel competition, but not that they can beat another top team. An awful lot is riding on their first-round game with Wayzata in the SLP tourney.
This week: at Rochester Century

11. Roseau (7-1-1/1-1-1)
-Stepped ahead of Moorhead in the 8AA race with a win on Tuesday, though the inability to win the Stadstad tourney is a mild disappointment, keeping them from jumping any further. The schedule is very easy from here until their matchup with Warroad in mid-January.
This week: Idle

12. Osseo (4-1-1/0-1-1)
-Did what they needed to this past week against weaker NWSC teams, and have a big matchup ahead of them on Tuesday against Andover to see which of them might challenge Blaine and Elk River for the conference title.
This week: Tues at Andover

13. Duluth East (7-1/3-1)
-Slide backwards through no fault of their own, but instead because teams behind them had big jumps this past week. The easy part of the schedule is now over; time to see how an inexperienced team handles some top-flight opponents.
This week: Tues vs. #15 Moorhead

14. Elk River (4-2/2-2)
-Had an opportunity to make a statement in the EHC and didn't do much with it, so they drop for now. The results have to be heartening for the rest of 7AA. A lot of big games coming up, giving them plenty of opportunities for a rebound.
This week: Wed at #8 Holy Angels

15. Moorhead (4-1/1-1)
-Lost to Roseau, but not in a manner that suggests they're out of the section title race. They have their first real test against a big team this week, and like many others the schedule gets more difficult from here.
This week: Tues at #13 Duluth East

On the Outside Looking In
Tartan (6-2/0-2). Piling up the wins but need to do something against a good team.
Andover (5-1/1-1). Also piling up a gaudy record, but Elk River's rough week did little to help their cause.
Eagan (4-1-1/1-1). Not convinced they're a top team, but beating Jefferson will get you noticed. It's also enough to throw them right in the middle of the 3AA race.
Centennial (4-3/0-3). Need to get a win over someone more significant than Champlin Park.
Apple Valley (6-3/1-2). Rebounded from a slow start with wins against a bunch of teams with Grand Forks in their name. I expect continued improvement out of a young team.

I hope the reasoning makes sense; this was a difficult week. Comment away, though realize I may not be able to check up as often this week (I'm in Chicago for Christmas). Happy Holidays!

youngblood08 · Post by **youngblood08** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:05 pm

nice job.

HShockeywatcher · Post by **HShockeywatcher** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:22 pm

Overall, very good.

My only gripe; the only good teams Moorhead, East, Elk River, Osseo and Jefferson have played they have lost to. Yes, losing close to good teams is good, but Eagan has beaten your #5 team and they are not even top 15. Interesting to me. They do play a relatively easy non-conference schedule, but they have beaten Jefferson and have no loses against MSHSL teams.

Aside from that, good.

bananastick · Post by **bananastick** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 1:34 pm

I think you mean the St. Louis Park tourament in your review of Wayzata.

toptitty96 · Post by **toptitty96** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 2:39 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:Overall, very good.

My only gripe; the only good teams Moorhead, East, Elk River, Osseo and Jefferson have played they have lost to. Yes, losing close to good teams is good, but Eagan has beaten your #5 team and they are not even top 15. Interesting to me. They do play a relatively easy non-conference schedule, but they have beaten Jefferson and have no loses against MSHSL teams.

Aside from that, good.

I think that Centennial and Apple Valley are good teams, and Jefferson beat them. Interesting to see that you think Eagan is the only "good" team Jefferson has played. Give AV and Centennial some credit, both are solid teams.

But once again the rankings are pretty good Karl. I think with the holiday tournaments coming up we will learn a lot about some of these teams and the rankings can be made with more confidence.

Post by **karl(east)** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 2:43 pm

bananastick wrote:I think you mean the St. Louis Park tourament in your review of Wayzata.

Yes, you're right. That's the second time I've confused those two this year.

Post by **karl(east)** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 2:49 pm

toptitty96 wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:Overall, very good.

My only gripe; the only good teams Moorhead, East, Elk River, Osseo and Jefferson have played they have lost to. Yes, losing close to good teams is good, but Eagan has beaten your #5 team and they are not even top 15. Interesting to me. They do play a relatively easy non-conference schedule, but they have beaten Jefferson and have no loses against MSHSL teams.

Aside from that, good.
I think that Centennial and Apple Valley are good teams, and Jefferson beat them. Interesting to see that you think Eagan is the only "good" team Jefferson has played. Give AV and Centennial some credit, both are solid teams.

Re: Jefferson (and some of the other teams listed above)...sometimes the most important information I take out of a game isn't necessarily the result (as in win vs. loss) but the score itself. Sure, Jefferson hasn't played any really good teams, but they have played some decent ones--Centennial, AV--and blew them out of the water. Other good teams have played these two but haven't won by nearly as much. Osseo actually moved up in the rankings by losing to Blaine by only one goal and tying Wayzata; it really proved they can compete with those teams. Similar logic is at work with East, since they came so close to beating Wayzata.

HShockeywatcher · Post by **HShockeywatcher** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 2:52 pm

There are 20-30 "good" AA teams. Not saying they aren't "good" programs, just they aren't top programs at the moment.

All those teams have played "top" teams but lost to them. While Jefferson is considered a "top" team based on these rankings and the team who beat them that hasn't lost a MSHSL game isn't ranked seems odd to me. Not taking anything away from anyone, just saying I'd put them in the mix.

Goldfishdude · Post by **Goldfishdude** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 5:28 pm

The best thing about these, Karl, is the logic you use to determine your rankings, and factor as much information as you can. You know the AP/Coaches poll, just have a handful of coaches that vote for the same teams, mostly based on reputation.

You use information that you read on the board, from insiders, maybe such as myself, to aid in your formulation of your opinions. If someone doesn't necessarily agree with your analysis, they can give you feedback, and you take that into consideration.

I have been pretty staunch in my opinion about my hometown team, White Bear Lake, in the fact that they're a GOOD team, but not a top 15 as LPH, the AP, and Followthepuck state. YOU are the only one that listens and agrees with me that WBL has ALOT to prove.

You need to continue to be commended on your efforts....

northwoods oldtimer · Post by **northwoods oldtimer** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:32 pm

There are 20-30 "good" AA teams. Not saying they aren't "good" programs, just they aren't top programs at the moment.

I agree with you on there being that many good teams in Minnesota. there are a lot of good senior, junior, sophomore players in the state, leading to great competition. Karl has them ranked right where they need to be from reviewing who the teams have played to date. Looking at Eagan's schedule I cannot see how you would justify ranking them higher strictly on the very nice 4-3 win over a very good Jefferson team. Seems logical that the win over Jefferson places Eagan where they belong in the honorable mention category, well deserved I might add. Eagan schedule looks a bit light which seems to be the common theme when mentioning Jefferson in comparison. Jefferson has a number of tougher games with SLP tournament, Moorhead (2X) Wayzata, EP. If Eagan is for real they will climb the charts when the EP games unfold. As the season progresses only time will tell if Eagan climbs to higher rank, their schedule makes it tougher to track.

Zamman · Post by **Zamman** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:41 pm

Excellent job as usual, but there was one mistake. No biggie, but will make for a fun week.

Elk River plays AHA at the Richfield Ice Palace on Wednesday night, not Tuesday at 7:30.
Should be fun and we hope many people take the opportunity to come oyt and watch the two teams play.

Papa Bergundy · Post by **Papa Bergundy** » Sun Dec 20, 2009 9:51 pm

Zamman wrote:Excellent job as usual, but there was one mistake. No biggie, but will make for a fun week.

Elk River plays AHA at the Richfield Ice Palace on Wednesday night, not Tuesday at 7:30.
Should be fun and we hope many people take the opportunity to come oyt and watch the two teams play.

Free advertising... Nothin better...

ACDCfan · Post by **ACDCfan** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 7:09 am

How about the impact of sem pretty serious injuries:

Everson-Edina
Daily-Benilde
Izaakson-STA (class A)

Others?

HShockeywatcher · Post by **HShockeywatcher** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 7:15 am

The horse is already mush, so I won't keep repeating myself; you can only rate teams on who they have played. Eagan beat the team he ranked #5. -Look through his 15, EVERY team who has given another team on there a loss is ranked.
-What quality teams have Moorhead, Elk River, Osseo or even Eden Prairie or Holy Angels BEATEN? None, they are on there for their reputation and how well they have done against the teams they lost to.
-Jefferson, also, imo, hasn't beaten any "really-good" teams, while the one team they have lost to isn't even ranked and they're still #5.
Eagan, on the other hand, despite their soft schedule has come out and actually beaten a team we consider top 5 and are just honorable mention? You can only play the teams on your schedule.

Again, you don't have to agree with me. But if you really don't understand what I'm saying, re-read what I've written or send me a PM.

Post by **karl(east)** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 12:02 am

ACDCfan wrote:How about the impact of sem pretty serious injuries:

Everson-Edina
Daily-Benilde
Izaakson-STA (class A)

Others?

Since I don't have a real means of keeping track on injuries of players on 20-30 teams--and their opponents, I suppose, since that might affect the ranking--I can't really factor in injuries. I might mention them in the comment section if I'm aware of them, but unless we can develop NFL-style injury reports each week, I don't think I can possibly factor in injuries in a fair way.

HappyHockeyFan · Post by **HappyHockeyFan** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 12:54 am

Everything looks good but I will have to agree that I think Eagan deserves a little better. You might be able to call Eagan's win over Jefferson a fluke if Jefferson hasnt absolutely blown everyone else out of the water. But I dont think given the wide margins of victory they have had and then to be almost shut down by Eagan constitutes a fluke. Eagan has two shutouts on the year and no I was not at the Eagan/Jefferson game but what I have been told is that Eagan's defense kept Jefferson at bay all night and didnt really give them alot of good shots. I think there is more to Eagan than meets the eye. They are young but VERY talented and I think they will be a REAL contender in section 3AA. Now I am not saying they deserve a top ten ranking but I think something in the Top Twenty is reasonable, at least for now. Only time will tell if they have staying power or climbing power...

HShockeywatcher · Post by **HShockeywatcher** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 7:21 am

The issue with Eagan the rest of the season is the issue people (myself included) had with Jefferson last year; they play in the Lake conference and not in the Schwan Cup. They could theoretically lose close games to EP and BJ, end the year 20-4-1 and still get no respect because "they haven't beaten anyone" while Jefferson plays the same schedule and is ranked high.

I guess the question I have for anyone who's done rankings is; what has Jefferson done to deserve a high ranking that Eagan hasn't? The guy who does the mnhockeyhub rankings has BJ at #4 and Eagan at #20 in the rankings regardless of class. Just confuses me.

RFFalcon22 · Post by **RFFalcon22** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 7:30 am

I think five posts in the same thread is good enough. We get it, you think Eagan should be rated. This is an opinion forum so you're more than welcome to start your own top 15-20 rankings (with Eagan above Jefferson of course).

Karl - my old team isn't in your top 15 either, but I still enjoy reading your breakdowns. Keep up the good work!

northwoods oldtimer · Post by **northwoods oldtimer** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 8:45 am

HShockeywatcher wrote:The issue with Eagan the rest of the season is the issue people (myself included) had with Jefferson last year; they play in the Lake conference and not in the Schwan Cup. They could theoretically lose close games to EP and BJ, end the year 20-4-1 and still get no respect because "they haven't beaten anyone" while Jefferson plays the same schedule and is ranked high.

I guess the question I have for anyone who's done rankings is; what has Jefferson done to deserve a high ranking that Eagan hasn't? The guy who does the mnhockeyhub rankings has BJ at #4 and Eagan at #20 in the rankings regardless of class. Just confuses me.

The Jefferson team has won a handful of state tournaments and made the trip many times to St. Paul in March. That tends to give the program some respect in the hockey fans mind. Eagan might just get their just rewards by winning, 20-4-1 would get them respect and along with that the clout but only time will tell. If you wish to get all scientific about Eagan, pagestat has your boys at 25 and Jefferson at the 2 spot. Seems to me that Karl has placed the wildcats right where they should be for this point in time. They might just climb the charts as the season progresses.

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 8:54 am

HShockeywatcher wrote:I guess the question I have for anyone who's done rankings is; what has Jefferson done to deserve a high ranking that Eagan hasn't?

Well for one Jefferson hasn't lost to a girls team!

besthockeyfan · Post by **besthockeyfan** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 9:23 am

ACDCfan wrote:How about the impact of sem pretty serious injuries:

Everson-Edina
Daily-Benilde
Izaakson-STA (class A)

Others?

How about Cretin Derham Hall's best two defensemen in Mark Alt and Tyler Roberts. People tend to forget in these rankings that Cretin is undefeated playing two defensemen that probably won't get much ice time when these two return. I have read that Daily getting hurt for Benilde should effect them. I haven't heard how Cretin has gone undefeated without Alt who is signed to play for the U of M. I would love to hear comments back about this.

Slap Shot · Post by **Slap Shot** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 12:05 pm

Some people react to rankings as if they impact life or death situations. Last time I checked, rankings didn't get anyone into the state tournament and if Eagan is worthy anything they'll be able to prove that as the season plays out as well as in sections. Stop whining about it already.

greyhoundsnation27 · Post by **greyhoundsnation27** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 12:26 pm

The victory over Jefferson was Eagan's first impressive win of the season, while Jefferson had 2 impressive wins. The first is beating Centennial 9-2, while East only beat them 3-2 and Wayzata beat them 4-2. The other is a 10-3 win over Apple Valley, a team that just won the Stadstad Classic.

You also have to factor in common opponents. Jefferson beat Lakeville South 9-3, while Eagan only beat them 2-1. Jefferson beat Chaska/Chanhassen 7-0, while Eagan only beat them 5-2.

I don't really like comparing scores to compare teams, but in this case, those scores seem revelant to the topic.

HappyHockeyFan · Post by **HappyHockeyFan** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 12:33 pm

MNHockeyFan wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:I guess the question I have for anyone who's done rankings is; what has Jefferson done to deserve a high ranking that Eagan hasn't?
Well for one Jefferson hasn't lost to a girls team!

Funny...too bad you dont have anything intelligent to say..

greyhoundsnation27 · Post by **greyhoundsnation27** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 12:38 pm

Slap Shot wrote:Some people react to rankings as if they impact life or death situations. Last time I checked, rankings didn't get anyone into the state tournament and if Eagan is worthy anything they'll be able to prove that as the season plays out as well as in sections. Stop whining about it already.

Good point. There's still about 2 and a half months left in the season and Eagan will have a chance to climb up the rankings. The win over Jefferson put them on the right path.