AA Rankings for 12/20/09

[MNHockeyFan]

I guess the question I have for anyone who's done rankings is; what has Jefferson done to deserve a high ranking that Eagan hasn't?

Well for one Jefferson hasn't lost to a girls team!

Funny...too bad you dont have anything intelligent to say..

I know, it's embarrassing as heck, but you'll get over it. As Clinton used to say, "I feel your pain."

[HappyHockeyFan]

Let me repeat from my earlier post, nobody is asking for Eagan to be ranked in the Top Ten for beating #2 team in the state. However, in conjunction with Eagans record, low goals agains ( 2 shutouts ) and the fact that they beat Jefferson, on Jefferson own ice, and the fact that Jefferson HAS blown everyone else out I think Eagan at least deserves a little respect like say #18 - #20. Maybe they lose their next game and fall back out, thats fine, but on this one win and everything else thrown in I think they could at least get that. And trust me, you WILL be hearing ALOT more about this team over the next couple of years, lots of young talent.

[HappyHockeyFan]

Well for one Jefferson hasn't lost to a girls team!

Funny...too bad you dont have anything intelligent to say..

I know, it's embarrassing as heck, but you'll get over it. As Clinton used to say, "I feel your pain."

Oh trust me, I feel NO embarrassment AT ALL..they played the TOP girls in the country under the girls rules, not an easy adjustment. They did very well once they got used to it, outscored the girls 3 to 1 in the 3rd..Go CATS !!

[HShockeywatcher]

Moreso than them being ranked now, my thoughts have two main points:
1. If beating Jefferson barely gets them on the radar, with their schedule, regardless of how they do, they won't get on it.
a. And if they do, they should be ranked now.
2. northwoods oldtimer is dead on; Jefferson is ranked because of their program's history.

[MNHockeyFan]

Oh trust me, I feel NO embarrassment AT ALL..they played the TOP girls in the country under the girls rules, not an easy adjustment. They did very well once they got used to it, outscored the girls 3 to 1 in the 3rd..Go CATS !!

I was just pulling your leg, and I have no hard feelings toward Eagan at all. In fact I give them a lot of credit for agreeing to schedule the game.

I'm actually more concerned with how the U.S. womens team does in the Olympics, as they got smoked in their last two games against Canada. They play each other again on Dec. 30th at the Xcel.

Best of luck to Eagan the rest of the way.

[schwang17]

2. northwoods oldtimer is dead on; Jefferson is ranked because of their program's history.

Yeah, it has nothing to do with returning 3/4 of their team from last year, being loaded with talent, and averaging 8 goals a game.

Based on your history, your opinion should be taken with a grain of salt.

[schwang17]

The issue with Eagan the rest of the season is the issue people (myself included) had with Jefferson last year; they play in the Lake conference and not in the Schwan Cup. They could theoretically lose close games to EP and BJ, end the year 20-4-1 and still get no respect because "they haven't beaten anyone" while Jefferson plays the same schedule and is ranked high.

I guess the question I have for anyone who's done rankings is; what has Jefferson done to deserve a high ranking that Eagan hasn't? The guy who does the mnhockeyhub rankings has BJ at #4 and Eagan at #20 in the rankings regardless of class. Just confuses me.

Believe me, you aren't hard to confuse. Eagan is in the same place now as they will be come seasons end - don't you worry. Jefferson is the better team overall, definitely worthy of being a top 5 team both talent-wise and to those who watch most of the teams play across the state - also, when comparing common opponents it's not close.

[HappyHockeyFan]

The issue with Eagan the rest of the season is the issue people (myself included) had with Jefferson last year; they play in the Lake conference and not in the Schwan Cup. They could theoretically lose close games to EP and BJ, end the year 20-4-1 and still get no respect because "they haven't beaten anyone" while Jefferson plays the same schedule and is ranked high.

I guess the question I have for anyone who's done rankings is; what has Jefferson done to deserve a high ranking that Eagan hasn't? The guy who does the mnhockeyhub rankings has BJ at #4 and Eagan at #20 in the rankings regardless of class. Just confuses me.

Believe me, you aren't hard to confuse. Eagan is in the same place now as they will be come seasons end - don't you worry. Jefferson is the better team overall, definitely worthy of being a top 5 team both talent-wise and to those who watch most of the teams play across the state - also, when comparing common opponents it's not close.

Nobody EVER said on this thread that Eagan was better than Jefferson or that they would be come seasons end. Just asking for some credibility after being better than Jefferson for one night on Jeffersons home ice..so relax.

[toptitty96]

Everything looks good but I will have to agree that I think Eagan deserves a little better. You might be able to call Eagan's win over Jefferson a fluke if Jefferson hasnt absolutely blown everyone else out of the water. But I dont think given the wide margins of victory they have had and then to be almost shut down by Eagan constitutes a fluke. Eagan has two shutouts on the year and no I was not at the Eagan/Jefferson game but what I have been told is that Eagan's defense kept Jefferson at bay all night and didnt really give them alot of good shots. I think there is more to Eagan than meets the eye. They are young but VERY talented and I think they will be a REAL contender in section 3AA. Now I am not saying they deserve a top ten ranking but I think something in the Top Twenty is reasonable, at least for now. Only time will tell if they have staying power or climbing power...

You're reasoning to why the Eagan Jefferson game "wasn't a fluke" is really strange. The huge margins of victory in every Jefferson game, particularly the AV and Centennial games, are the reason that the game is generally seen as a fluke. If Jefferson had been only beating teams by 1 or 2 and then lost in OT to a solid Eagan team, then the win would be seen as a win where Eagan is probably the better team. But since the Jags crushed AV and Centennial, two very respectable teams, it leads you to believe that such a terribly played game in which they lost was probably just a really off night for Jefferson. It wasn't a fluke on Eagan's part, but on Jefferson's. They played horribly and couldn't keep the puck on their sticks, even if there was no real pressure from Eagan. LPH obviously thinks it was a fluke since they bumped Jefferson to #2 in the rankings despite the loss. I'm not trying to argue or take anything away from Eagan, because I think they are a strong contender for their section, I just wanted to explain that the wide margins of victory over teams like AV and Centennial would lead most to believe that the game was a fluke.

[BodyShots]

Holly Cow. Eagan / Jefferson....Jefferson / Eagan. blah, blah, blah.

Here you go.

Karl, next month make Eagan/Jefferson Co #1's. That way we wont have to here the whining.

[northwoods oldtimer]

How about those Minnetonka Skippers?! Looking good at number 1.

[HShockeywatcher]

I won't beat the horse anymore, but not only are comparing margins of victory not a perfect science by any means, the point of the game is to win. I would compare the end result of the game among common opponents, then compare GA, then anything else in any order.

Moving on to other topics; I am surprised to see the defending state champion Eden Prairie Eagles lower than anyone who's lost a game. Their one loss is their most recent game, away and by 2 to the team last year many said was the best team in state. I'd put them #2 right behind Tonka (and would've had them ahead until their loss).

[defense]

I won't beat the horse anymore, but not only are comparing margins of victory not a perfect science by any means, the point of the game is to win. I would compare the end result of the game among common opponents, then compare GA, then anything else in any order.

Moving on to other topics; I am surprised to see the defending state champion Eden Prairie Eagles lower than anyone who's lost a game. Their one loss is their most recent game, away and by 2 to the team last year many said was the best team in state. I'd put them #2 right behind Tonka (and would've had them ahead until their loss).

However, goal differential is "not a perfect science."

[greyhoundsnation27]

Let me repeat from my earlier post, nobody is asking for Eagan to be ranked in the Top Ten for beating #2 team in the state. However, in conjunction with Eagans record, low goals agains ( 2 shutouts ) and the fact that they beat Jefferson, on Jefferson own ice, and the fact that Jefferson HAS blown everyone else out I think Eagan at least deserves a little respect like say #18 - #20. Maybe they lose their next game and fall back out, thats fine, but on this one win and everything else thrown in I think they could at least get that. And trust me, you WILL be hearing ALOT more about this team over the next couple of years, lots of young talent.

Karl ranked the top 15 teams, then he has the "On the Outside Looking In" part which is basically the 16-20 teams. So if you think about it, he basically has them at #18 in Class AA.

I also don't think you can't call Eagan's win over Jefferson a fluke. A fluke is a completely overmatched team that gets a couple lucky bounces and wins. Eagan is a good team that played a great game and deserved to win. I don't think they're a better team than Jefferson, but they were on that day.

[HShockeywatcher]

defense,

I believe you mistook where I said "GA" (goals against) for goal differential. We've all heard the saying "offense wins games, defense wins championships," well it is true. I'd take the take who goes 25-0 with 25 GF over the 25-0 team with 150 GA any day. If I mis-read your post, I apologize.

Goal differential, on the other hand, is very different. A beats C 5-1, B beats C 10-4; come up with the many, many different statistical ways to say why each is better (there are many for both), bottom line is they both won. The game they played, they won.
Personally, if I were to analyze the numbers, I think GA is a much better stat. Not only is allowing less a much better multiplier, but if you don't allow goals (pts, etc) you can't lose.

[HShockeywatcher]

Wow, I feel bad for this horse. I think HappyHockeyFan and I have a differing of opinion. At the moment in time where we are in the season, right now, I believe Eagan should be ranked ahead of Jefferson. That being said, BJ's win against the best opponent is against a team who is lower than Eagan on karl's ranking; I would have Eagan in the top ten and Jefferson lower than them. They are good but get a pass with one loss? Benilde doesn't, Roseau doesn't, East doesn't, etc.

Not to continue, just to clarify thoughts. Sorry schwang17, know you would want to hear from me as little as possible (although comments you have made are something most would respond to )

I would also like to say that my comments aren't meant to be an attack on karl, merely food or thought/discussion on this discussion board. Everyone has their own opinions they put into rankings, things they miss and mistakes they make.

[HShockeywatcher]

Tartan.

They lose their first game, which I'd say means very little, then lost to MHH's #2 regardless of class Cadets by 2. Although they haven't done much, they have won (I'm suspecting 5) at least 4 in a row.

[besthockeyfan]

The issue with Eagan the rest of the season is the issue people (myself included) had with Jefferson last year; they play in the Lake conference and not in the Schwan Cup. They could theoretically lose close games to EP and BJ, end the year 20-4-1 and still get no respect because "they haven't beaten anyone" while Jefferson plays the same schedule and is ranked high.

I guess the question I have for anyone who's done rankings is; what has Jefferson done to deserve a high ranking that Eagan hasn't? The guy who does the mnhockeyhub rankings has BJ at #4 and Eagan at #20 in the rankings regardless of class. Just confuses me.

Believe me, you aren't hard to confuse. Eagan is in the same place now as they will be come seasons end - don't you worry. Jefferson is the better team overall, definitely worthy of being a top 5 team both talent-wise and to those who watch most of the teams play across the state - also, when comparing common opponents it's not close.

Nobody EVER said on this thread that Eagan was better than Jefferson or that they would be come seasons end. Just asking for some credibility after being better than Jefferson for one night on Jeffersons home ice..so relax.

Here's some credibility for EAGAN. They just crushed Hastings 8-3! Shots were about 35-15 Eagan. And oh by the way, Jefferson outshot Eagan in the first 13-6 and then Eagan played right with them the last 2 periods and actually outshot them 14-13. Jefferson is a better team than them but Eagan is better than #18!!

[HappyHockeyFan]

Believe me, you aren't hard to confuse. Eagan is in the same place now as they will be come seasons end - don't you worry. Jefferson is the better team overall, definitely worthy of being a top 5 team both talent-wise and to those who watch most of the teams play across the state - also, when comparing common opponents it's not close.

Nobody EVER said on this thread that Eagan was better than Jefferson or that they would be come seasons end. Just asking for some credibility after being better than Jefferson for one night on Jeffersons home ice..so relax.

Here's some credibility for EAGAN. They just crushed Hastings 8-3! Shots were about 35-15 Eagan. And oh by the way, Jefferson outshot Eagan in the first 13-6 and then Eagan played right with them the last 2 periods and actually outshot them 14-13. Jefferson is a better team than them but Eagan is better than #18!!

Thanks for the cred report !! I was at the game and Eagan controlled 90% of this game. I guess sometimes teams that are not regular Top Tens have to work a little harder earn respect. I can accept that and just hope that as the season progresses and Eagan continues to pile up wins ( hopefully ) that those with the blinders on will see the light. This Eagan team has alot of solid young talent, they will be a force to reckon with the next 3 years at least. Remember these names...Michael Zajac, Nick and Derrick Kuchera, Will Merchant and Eli May. All sophs and regular contributers.

[besthockeyfan]

Nobody EVER said on this thread that Eagan was better than Jefferson or that they would be come seasons end. Just asking for some credibility after being better than Jefferson for one night on Jeffersons home ice..so relax.

Here's some credibility for EAGAN. They just crushed Hastings 8-3! Shots were about 35-15 Eagan. And oh by the way, Jefferson outshot Eagan in the first 13-6 and then Eagan played right with them the last 2 periods and actually outshot them 14-13. Jefferson is a better team than them but Eagan is better than #18!!

Thanks for the cred report !! I was at the game and Eagan controlled 90% of this game. I guess sometimes teams that are not regular Top Tens have to work a little harder earn respect. I can accept that and just hope that as the season progresses and Eagan continues to pile up wins ( hopefully ) that those with the blinders on will see the light. This Eagan team has alot of solid young talent, they will be a force to reckon with the next 3 years at least. Remember these names...Michael Zajac, Nick and Derrick Kuchera, Will Merchant and Eli May. All sophs and regular contributers.

I find it interesting you mention D. Kuchera and he doesn't even play varsity, yet you forget to mention Sam Wolfe and Connor McGovern, both sophomores who play. Do you know something the coaches and /or I don't?

[HappyHockeyFan]

Here's some credibility for EAGAN. They just crushed Hastings 8-3! Shots were about 35-15 Eagan. And oh by the way, Jefferson outshot Eagan in the first 13-6 and then Eagan played right with them the last 2 periods and actually outshot them 14-13. Jefferson is a better team than them but Eagan is better than #18!!

Thanks for the cred report !! I was at the game and Eagan controlled 90% of this game. I guess sometimes teams that are not regular Top Tens have to work a little harder earn respect. I can accept that and just hope that as the season progresses and Eagan continues to pile up wins ( hopefully ) that those with the blinders on will see the light. This Eagan team has alot of solid young talent, they will be a force to reckon with the next 3 years at least. Remember these names...Michael Zajac, Nick and Derrick Kuchera, Will Merchant and Eli May. All sophs and regular contributers.

I find it interesting you mention D. Kuchera and he doesn't even play varsity, yet you forget to mention Sam Wolfe and Connor McGovern, both sophomores who play. Do you know something the coaches and /or I don't?

I was speaking mainly of the future and I expect Derrick will be a big part of that down the road. As for Wolfe and McGovern, yeah throw them in the mix as well. I guess I mainly pointed out the forwards except Eli May.

[Roseauverrated]

There's no need to quote 6 posts in 1 message, especially when it's right after the one you're quoting.

My bet is Eagan remains mediocre at best throughout the next few years. I'm sorry but I just don't have much respect for them.

[karl(east)]

Alright, there is a lot of catching up to do here.

First, Eagan. Someone had it right when they pointed out that I do essentially have them at #18 in the "outside looking in" category. The win over Jefferson was huge, yes. But in general I am leery of putting too much stock in one game. If they get another big win or two, then they'll make a big leap. But these are my rankings, and I am allowed to hedge my bets. I think Eagan is good, but not top-10 good. And despite the weak schedule, they will have the opportunity to make the jump with two games against EP, another against Jefferson, and games against quality teams like AV and maybe Burnsville.

As a general rule, 1 big win may be dismissed as a fluke, while two are hard to ignore. (And I use "fluke" in a loose sense to suggest a result that probably would not repeat itself time and time again if this game were to be replayed.) Eagan certainly can earn a top-ten ranking. They're just not there yet.

Yes, Jefferson is getting something of a "benefit of the doubt," but I see no problem with this. They did have a great year last year no matter how you slice it (and I'll remind you that I did not have them at #1 most of the year, like some others did), and they returned the vast majority of the talent from that team. They're very good, and the results of every game aside from the Eagan one show that. As the season goes on and they play more big games (unlike last year, they are in a major holiday tourney this year), I can phase out the "expectation" part of the rankings (as are necessary at this point to get an accurate picture) and replace them with the real results.

If I wanted to judge strictly on what has happened, I could set up a computer program. But I don't want to do that, and I'm not sure what purpose that would really serve--look at the numbers that things like PS2 spit out early in the season. I'd like to think that I have a pretty good idea of what I am doing, and I'm going to use my judgment if need be. If you view that as a failing of mine, so be it. And if, as I review my work, I decide that using my judgment made the rankings less accurate, I will adjust accordingly. My goal, above all, is to be right. And right now, this is the best I can do.

I'll also point out that, compared to most other rankings, I am somewhat more generous to Eagan and especially less so to Jefferson:
Eagan
Me: 18
PS2: 19
FTP: "on the watch" -->21-25ish
Breakdown: 17

Jefferson
Me: 5
PS2: 2
FTP: 2
Breakdown: 3

[HappyHockeyFan]

Alright, there is a lot of catching up to do here.

First, Eagan. Someone had it right when they pointed out that I do essentially have them at #18 in the "outside looking in" category. The win over Jefferson was huge, yes. But in general I am leery of putting too much stock in one game. If they get another big win or two, then they'll make a big leap. But these are my rankings, and I am allowed to hedge my bets. I think Eagan is good, but not top-10 good. And despite the weak schedule, they will have the opportunity to make the jump with two games against EP, another against Jefferson, and games against quality teams like AV and maybe Burnsville.

As a general rule, 1 big win may be dismissed as a fluke, while two are hard to ignore. (And I use "fluke" in a loose sense to suggest a result that probably would not repeat itself time and time again if this game were to be replayed.) Eagan certainly can earn a top-ten ranking. They're just not there yet.

Yes, Jefferson is getting something of a "benefit of the doubt," but I see no problem with this. They did have a great year last year no matter how you slice it (and I'll remind you that I did not have them at #1 most of the year, like some others did), and they returned the vast majority of the talent from that team. They're very good, and the results of every game aside from the Eagan one show that. As the season goes on and they play more big games (unlike last year, they are in a major holiday tourney this year), I can phase out the "expectation" part of the rankings (as are necessary at this point to get an accurate picture) and replace them with the real results.

If I wanted to judge strictly on what has happened, I could set up a computer program. But I don't want to do that, and I'm not sure what purpose that would really serve--look at the numbers that things like PS2 spit out early in the season. I'd like to think that I have a pretty good idea of what I am doing, and I'm going to use my judgment if need be. If you view that as a failing of mine, so be it. And if, as I review my work, I decide that using my judgment made the rankings less accurate, I will adjust accordingly. My goal, above all, is to be right. And right now, this is the best I can do.

I'll also point out that, compared to most other rankings, I am somewhat more generous to Eagan and especially less so to Jefferson:
Eagan
Me: 18
PS2: 19
FTP: "on the watch" -->21-25ish
Breakdown: 17

Jefferson
Me: 5
PS2: 2
FTP: 2
Breakdown: 3

Good explanation, and my bad for not realizing your rankings only went to 15, I guess after going thru them once I had thought they went to 20 and therefore the watch list was 21 - 25. Keep up the good work.

[HappyHockeyFan]

There's no need to quote 6 posts in 1 message, especially when it's right after the one you're quoting.

My bet is Eagan remains mediocre at best throughout the next few years. I'm sorry but I just don't have much respect for them.

Based on your screen name your opinion means nothing to me because you obviously dont have any respect for one of the best programs in the history of Minnesota high school hockey.