*Revised* AA Rankings for 1/3/10

[karl(east)]

**Edit: I changed the #15 team.

We’re done with holiday tourneys and into the new year, which in the high school hockey ranking business is a sure sign that all hell has broken loose. In fact, this roughly marks the one year anniversary of my first rankings, which stemmed out of complete frustration with LPH’s efforts. I didn’t expect it to grow into a weekly routine, but thanks to the continued positive response and quality discussion provoked, I’ve kept on going and have no intention of stopping.

As the records against other good teams show, the top seven have distinguished themselves pretty clearly as the frontrunners. Next comes another tier of six teams that a) have a gaudy record but have yet to play many good opponents, b) have established themselves as good-but-not-great, or c) started out poorly but have picked up significantly since. After those, throw a bunch of pieces of paper into the air with names on them and pick one.

The numbers following the team names are the team’s a) overall record, and b) record against about 25 top teams.

1. Minnetonka (11-0/5-0)
-Lost Gardiner, yet still found a way to get by the second-best team in the state. If that isn’t the mark of a championship team, I don’t know what is. It’s impossible not to consider them #1 at this point, and it might take more than one loss to bump them from this spot. Do I think they can go undefeated? No. The schedule is way too strong, with two games left against both Edina and Wayzata once the Classic Lake season starts, plus Eden Prairie and three other top-20 teams over the next two weeks. But that doesn’t mean that they aren’t the class of Minnesota hockey right now.
This week: Tues vs. #6 Eden Prairie, Thurs at Holy Angels, Sat vs. #13 Duluth East

2. Edina (10-2/6-2)
-Came ever so close to winning the Schwan Cup, proving just how dangerous they are. It’s hard to think of Edina as sneaking up on anyone, but their overnight rebuilding project is worthy of admiration (or at least bitter envy). Who knows, maybe now that the incredible amount of hype surrounding last year’s senior class is off their shoulders, they can finally relax, play as a team, and capture the title that eluded them over the past three years. They don’t have a whole lot of front-end talent, and though I have not seen them, on paper they remind me of the ‘08 Hill-Murray team--depth, quality goaltending, very physical, strong team defense. There will be no shortage of tests down the stretch; by their standards, the week ahead is an easy one.
This week: Tues at Chaska, Sat vs. Holy Angels

3. Blaine (7-3/4-3)
-Yes, they have three losses, but they’re all by one goal to the two teams ahead of them. Proved they’re as good as anyone this week; they play their last non-conference game this week, and also will give us a good measuring stick for the two leaders in 7AA.
This week: Thurs at #13 Duluth East, Thurs at North Metro, Sat vs. Elk River

4. Hill-Murray (9-1-1/4-1-1)
-It wasn’t a banner Schwan Cup, with a loss to Blaine and a poorer showing against White Bear Lake than in the first meeting, but they did what they needed to. The tests continue this week as they face two of their biggest challengers for the Classic Suburban crown.
This week: Thurs at St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. Tartan

5. Wayzata (8-1-1/5-1-1)
-Loss to Benilde hurts them a bit, especially in the context of section seeding. The good news is that they rebounded well with two wins, including a big one over Moorhead. They get the Spuds again this week, along with an interesting matchup with Jefferson.
This week: Thurs at #7 Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Moorhead

6. Eden Prairie (6-1/2-1)
-I said last week that they’d be at the mercy of what other teams around them did this week, and that ended up being a good thing for the Eagles. The only loss on the record--Edina--doesn’t look nearly bad as it did at the time, and with other teams dropping, the Eagles are still very much a presence in the statewide picture. Huge test on Tuesday before launching into the Lake schedule.
This week: Tues at #1 Minnetonka, Thurs at Rosemount, Sat vs. Lakeville South

7. Bloomington Jefferson (8-1-1/4-1-1)
-I watched all three of their SLP tourney games, and was intrigued by what I saw. When this team is on, they’re as good as anyone in the state. However, when they’re off, things start to fall apart, and it seemed like they were pretty easily knocked off their game. That’s keeping them from being ranked as an elite team at this point, despite the talent on hand. The Wayzata game this week is the biggest of their two remaining non-conference games.
This week: Thurs vs. #5 Wayzata, Sat vs. Lakeville South

8. Eagan (8-1-1/1-1-1)
-Not sure how I feel about this, but they beat Jefferson and the record is gaudy, so this will have to do. They play another pretty good team this week, which will be a much better measuring stick than slaughters of Armstrong or Hopkins.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat vs. #15 Apple Valley

9. Roseau (10-1-1/1-1)
-Another team with a gaudy record but few strong opponents. Using common opponents to rate them is difficult; the very close loss to Blaine suggests that maybe they should be higher, but I’m holding back due to a lack of big defining wins and that tie against Grand Forks Red River, a team Apple Valley beat 4-1. With their schedule, all they can do is go on winning against the teams they should beat and hope that those above them have a few slip-ups.
This week: Tues vs. Crookston, Sat at East Grand Forks

10. Centennial (6-3-1/1-3-1)
-The record doesn’t suggest they’re this good, but their win in the St. Louis Park tourney says they deserve to be up here. They’ll have to work to keep their hot streak going with two quality NWSC opponents on the docket.
This week: Mon at Elk River, Sat at #14 Maple Grove

11. Osseo (7-2-1/2-2-1)
-This rating is getting more tenuous, as it’s based almost entirely on those two early results against Wayzata and Blaine. The loss to Warroad hurts a little, but with enough other teams losing, not enough to cause a drop. Finally get into the meat of their schedule later this month, though not this week.
This week: Thurs at Anoka, Sat vs. North Metro

12. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (7-2-1/2-2-1)
-A big win against Wayzata and a big loss against Centennial made their tourney a wash, and the Maple Grove win shows they should stay up near the top. Quite inconsistent in the early going; seem capable of getting big wins and big losses against other top teams. The schedule gets easier from here on out as they get into conference play.
This week: Thurs at St. Louis Park, Sat at Spring Lake Park

13. Duluth East (8-3-1/4-3-1)
-In the midst of a stretch of 4 of 5 games against the 4 best teams in the state. They kept the first one close enough to suggest they can play with these teams; not so with the second one. With that in mind, the win over Holy Angels was an important bounce-back. The holiday tourneys made their win over Centennial look a lot better, but the Moorhead tie worse, so I’m keeping them at #13 for now.
This week: Thurs vs. #3 Blaine, Sat at #1 Minnetonka

14. Maple Grove (6-4-1/1-4)
-This is where it starts to get really, really messy. MG surprised with a big win over Elk River and played Jefferson pretty well, so I’m rewarding the hot team and throwing them at the top of the pile for now. Their next four games are against other top NWSC teams, so if they don’t play well they’ll fall out pretty quickly.
This week: Thurs at Andover, Sat vs. #10 Centennial

15. *EDIT* Apple Valley (7-3/0-3)
-After giving it some more thought and reading your thoughts, I've slid them up; they have no real bad results, and they definitely deserve some credit for the win in the Stadstad tourney--something Roseau couldn't do. In general, I think Lake teams have been underrated this year, probably because it was a two-team conference last year. This year, Eagan, AV, Burnsville, and maybe even Lakeville South are jumping into the picture; we'll see if it's enough to compete with the top two.
This week: Thurs vs. Chaska, Sat at #8 Eagan

In the Messy Bubble
White Bear Lake (5-5/1-4)
-The Bears roared back into the picture with a huge win over Holy Angels and a much better showing against Hill-Murray than in the first game. Some big upcoming SEC games might make or break their season; the Saturday game against Cretin will determine the frontrunner in the conference.
Holy Angels (4-3/1-3)
-An ugly Schwan Cup showing sends them crashing out of the rankings, but the win over Elk River keeps them at the top of the mess. Huge week ahead of them with games against the top two teams.
Burnsville (5-5-2/2-4-1)
-Playing a lot of good teams pretty well.
Moorhead (4-3-2/0-3-2)
-Wayzata game aside, they have given a number of good teams very close games.
Elk River (5-4-1/2-4-1)
-Have yet to live up to their preseason hype. Key stretch with Centennial, Blaine, and Osseo in succession over the next two weeks.
Lakeville South (5-4/2-4)
-The win over Cretin gets them noticed, but they need to do more.
Andover (8-2/1-2)
-Beating the teams they need to beat; awaiting tougher competition.
Cretin-Derham Hall (8-2/1-1)
-Sent plummeting after two very ugly losses in the Schwan Cup Silver. They didn’t just lose; they got pasted by a pair of Lake teams.
Woodbury (5-6-1/0-5)
-Have shown no signs of recovering from the rough start.
Tartan (8-2-1/0-1)
-Nice record, but the strongest win on the schedule is by 1 goal over Rochester Century.

A run through the sections:

1AA
Lakeville South
Rochester Century
-South jumps into the picture with the win over Cretin; it’s now a two-horse race.

2AA
2 Edina
7 Jefferson
Holy Angels
Burnsville
-With Holy Angels fading, the stage is being set for another Edina-Jefferson showdown in the final. Keep an eye on Burnsville; they’re capable of causing some problems down the stretch.

3AA
8 Eagan
Apple Valley
Cretin-Derham Hall
Woodbury
-Cretin’s losses throws this one wide open, and gives reason to favor the Lake teams over the SEC teams. We’ll have to see just how good Eagan really is; the opportunity is there for them to run away with the section.

4AA
4 Hill-Murray
15 White Bear Lake
Tartan
-WBL’s re-emergence means this may not be a foregone conclusion after all. Still waiting to see what Tartan is really made of.

5AA
3 Blaine
10 Centennial
11 Osseo
14 Maple Grove
-We’ll have to see if the 2-4 teams can sort themselves out; right now, it’s shaping up to be a spectacular race both in the section and in the NWSC. The next few weeks could give some clarity, or the teams might just beat up on each other like last year and make it an even bigger mess than it already is.

6AA
1 Minnetonka
5 Wayzata
6 Eden Prairie
12 Benilde
-Despite the rankings, Benilde is now on the inside track for a higher seed than Wayzata thanks to their win in the SLP tourney. The EP/Tonka game this week will likely decide the top seed in the section, though that may not be of much value in a section with four teams as good as these ones.

7AA
13 Duluth East
Elk River
Andover
Grand Rapids?
Forest Lake?
-They’ve fallen into order pretty nicely for now, but with no dominant team this may not last. A lot of section games towards the end of the month.

8AA
9 Roseau
Moorhead
-It’s a two team race once again, and Roseau gets the top spot at least until their rematch later this month.

Comments: It’s nice to see the top 4 teams all coming out of different sections, and with two more sections represented in the top ten, the state tournament picture looks unusually strong right now. Even a 1AA team made the bubble purely on merit.

Well, this should give you plenty of things to argue about. Have at it.

[wblhockeyfan8]

You have no idea how pleased I was with that #15.

But a terrific job as usual my friend.

[mngophs04]

As always, very well done. I prefer your rankings by far than any other I've found, especially with the explanations.

[HappyHockeyFan]

Looks perfect Karl, nice job.

[Doglover]

As usual - well done. We all really appreciate the time and effort spent on quantifying all the information. The explanations are dead on. Should be a fun week - Jan hockey is always fun. Thanks karl.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Eagan at number 8 are you serious! They should be number 2 right behind Minnetonka I smell a conspiracy Karl!!
Just kidding, excellent ranking and a well earned number 8 for the "mildcats" turned Wildcats of Eagan.

[Goldfishdude]

You have no idea how pleased I was with that #15.

But a terrific job as usual my friend.

I try to be pretty honest and forthright about my Bears. I appreciate the #15 ranking, but this team is 2-4 in its last 6 games, getting shellacked by St. Thomas 7-0, Hill 5-0, Hill 4-3 and an OT loss to Mounds View... Their wins were vs Stillwater, and a uninspired Holy Angels, who Karl has dropped out of top 15. WBL moved into Karl's top 15 by virtue of the W vs AHA.

I understand it's a "what have you done for me lately", but you have East at #13, and East handled WBL pretty easily a month ago. WBL and East shouldn't be as close in the rankings.

It is only my humble opinion that I think its premature to include them in this discussion, but I also understand it might be by default based on what the other teams have done this week... I am harder on the Bears, because I know what this team is capable of, and my expectations are more demanding than most. I would rather see them unranked, and to be hungrier, work harder, and not just rest on its laurels with a W vs an exposed Holy Angels or a moral victory vs Hill.

This week will be a good test for the Bears as I think the Park game will offer some challenges, and CDH on Saturday. If they can beat CDH, WBL is deserving to be ranked.. I still will put CDH ahead of WBL despite CDH's two Cup losses.

But as always, each analysis you have done is still with great thought and reasoning.

[toomanystitches]

Thank you. Great insights. It looks like this up coming week will help determine the contenders from the pretenders.

[karl(east)]

I am second-guessing myself on a ranking, and would appreciate some input.

I am considering moving Apple Valley up to #14 and sliding everyone back from there.

Apple Valley is 7-3. They have two losses (not very close ones) to top-10 teams, Jefferson and Wayzata. Their 3rd loss is to Burnsville, a pretty good team who I have at #18. That's not a great loss, but just about everyone around them has some sort of result that's worse. WBL lost to Mounds View, MG tied Champlin Park, East tied Moorhead, Benilde lost to Cretin--point is, that's not too bad of a loss when put into perspective.

They don't have any really good wins, but they did get by a pretty good Lakeville South team, and they won the Stadstad tourney, which included a 4-1 win over a Grand Forks team that tied Roseau.

This would slide MG down to #15 and WBL off into the bubble.

Thoughts?

[Goldfishdude]

Based on record alone, AV should get a push.... and rewarded for it.. But maybe just flip them with WBL and keep MG at 14???

My team doesn't deserve it... yet... If WBL goes 3-0 this week, then, yes..

[greyhoundsnation27]

I wouldn't mind seeing Apple Valley at #14-15. Their big losses to Jefferson and Wayzata were a bit of a disappointment, but their loss to Burnsville doens't look nearly as bad as it did at the time.

Speaking of Burnsville, I'm glad you gave them an honorable mention, so to speak. They've rebounded from a terrible start and have been playing very well as of late. With wins over AV and CDH, a tie against Eagan and close losses to EP and Mahtomedi, this team shouldn't be overlooked.

[Goldfishdude]

I wouldn't mind seeing Apple Valley at #14-15. Their big losses to Jefferson and Wayzata were a bit of a disappointment, but their loss to Burnsville doens't look nearly as bad as it did at the time.

Speaking of Burnsville, I'm glad you gave them an honorable mention, so to speak. They've rebounded from a terrible start and have been playing very well as of late. With wins over AV and CDH, a tie against Eagan and close losses to EP and Mahtomedi, this team shouldn't be overlooked.

The good and the bad on the Bursnville's 6-0 victory vs CDH.. The bad is that it was against the backup goalie for CDH, who played his first game of the year (and maybe his only) - considering practices started mid Nov. And also, I know that CDH's goalie played very little at the JV level a year ago, so he's not game tested and I am sure the nerves were there, so the goal outburst was "tainted" a bit..

However, conversely, CDH has a great first line and Burnsville allowed 0 goals in the game, which leads me to believe the effort was low for CDH, and Burnsville needs to be credited for its effort in keeping CDH down. Also opening night, Burnsville skated with H-M until a 5-3 SH situation led to the demise... So, they are a competitve, noteworthy team.

[Zamman]

I have to agree with all these rankings. My team played poorly and need to pick up the pace or they will be left behind. They are capable of playing with any team in the state and can compete with them, but they need to want it and play much better.
At this time, I do not see anyone coming close to Edina and Minnetonka and the STARS play both of them this week.

[Goldfishdude]

I have to agree with all these rankings. My team played poorly and need to pick up the pace or they will be left behind. They are capable of playing with any team in the state and can compete with them, but they need to want it and play much better.
At this time, I do not see anyone coming close to Edina and Minnetonka and the STARS play both of them this week.

Hopefully your Stars can regroup in time for their awesome trip out East in a couple weeks.... That should be awesome... Mass and Rhode Island??

[EHSHack]

Just a note Karl, Blaine @ Duluth East on FSN is on Thursday, not Tuesday.

[karl(east)]

Just a note Karl, Blaine @ Duluth East on FSN is on Thursday, not Tuesday.

Thanks. I might have shown up at the Heritage Center on Tuesday otherwise--if I had, I would've ended up subjecting myself to a a Denfeld-Central game.

A bit annoying that they made all of these schedule changes to acommodate FSN, yet FSN dropped all those games but this one.

[Contradamus]

Karl, the only thing I can say about your rankings is "You Da Man!"

[Zamman]

I have to agree with all these rankings. My team played poorly and need to pick up the pace or they will be left behind. They are capable of playing with any team in the state and can compete with them, but they need to want it and play much better.
At this time, I do not see anyone coming close to Edina and Minnetonka and the STARS play both of them this week.

Hopefully your Stars can regroup in time for their awesome trip out East in a couple weeks.... That should be awesome... Mass and Rhode Island??

Except, they need to play better her in Minnesota where the games have more meaning. I too hope they have a fun trip....Wish I was going with.

[youngblood08]

I thought MSHSL put a stop to outstate travel for games? or some kind of 300 mile rule or something to that effect.

[Goldfishdude]

I thought MSHSL put a stop to outstate travel for games? or some kind of 300 mile rule or something to that effect.

I believe this trip was grandfathered in, as it was scheduled prior to the new rule adaptation.

[Zamman]

You can also apply for a waiver from the MSHSL.

[Slap Shot]

Eagen is too high.










lol

[Pioneerprideguy]

Who is "Eagen" and why is he using drugs? Just glad HM doesn't have an "Eagen" on their roster this year. Wait let me check...nope. Whew!!

[besthockeyfan]

Eagen is too high.











lol

Yeah slapshot it's EagAn and have you seen them play?

[Slap Shot]

Apparently sarcasm is a lost art form. I was just playing on the fact people were whining for weeks on end that they weren't rated high enough. Noting that and the typo, chill.