*Revised* AA Rankings for 1/10/10

[karl(east)]

We’re roughly at the halfway point of the season, and the picture beyond #1 has grown even more muddled, though I didn’t find it overly difficult to sort through...at least for this week. Along with the usual top-15 this week, I’ve included what I think each team’s top need is, should they desire to climb/maintain their spot in the rankings. Of course I know more about some teams than others, so some of them are rather vague. Feel free to pitch in with more.

1. Minnetonka (14-0)
-No surprise here; the Skippers shoved aside three more quality teams, and though they appear beatable if a team does enough things right, it sure won’t be easy. They have a relatively easy stretch in their schedule now, which should help fuel the undefeated talk even more.
Need: a healthy Max Gardiner
This week: Sat at Moorhead

2. Hill-Murray (11-1-1)
-While the other teams in the pack chasing Minnetonka had a tough week, Hill took control of the CSC with solid wins over STA and Tartan. Now they get to spend some time cleaning up on some less-than-stellar competition.
Need: strong goaltending
This week: Thurs at Richfield, Sat vs. St. Paul North

3. Edina (11-2-1)
-Tie to Holy Angels was a minor setback, but they’ve still achieved an awful lot against a very strong schedule--and it certainly doesn’t get any easier from here. I’m very curious to see how this team holds up down the stretch.
Need: someone to step up and take on the scoring load
This week: Tues vs. #10 Benilde

4. Eden Prairie (8-2)
-Narrow loss to Tonka reminds us that they’re very much in the picture as they continue to creep up in the rankings. Up next: three huge Lake Conference games. The one on Saturday looks especially interesting.
Need: more balanced scoring
This week: Thurs at Apple Valley, Sat vs. #6 Eagan

5. Blaine (9-3-1)
-Tied Duluth East, but scraped by Elk River to assert their control over the NWSC…for now, at least. Their next three games are all against quality conference opponents.
Need: stronger play from defensemen
This week: Thurs at #14 Maple Grove, Sat vs. Centennial

6. Eagan (10-1-1)
-Got one of their biggest wins of the year by shutting down Apple Valley. Any doubt over whether they should be ranked has now been put to rest. Should they be this high? We’ll find out on Saturday.
Need: more games against quality opponents
This week: Thurs at Rosemount, Sat at #4 Eden Prairie

7. Wayzata (9-2-1)
-Loss to Jefferson was a setback, and part of a less-than-impressive trend over the past few weeks. They have a couple of non-conference games this week which they should win, but might cause some difficulty.
Need: to get back to playing the way they did at the beginning of the year
This week: Tues at Eastview, Sat at Burnsville

8. Duluth East (8-4-2)
-Record over the past few weeks isn’t very pretty, but all of their losses and one of their ties are to teams ahead of them, and the only two that weren’t close were to the top two. The Blaine tie suggests they can play with just about anyone when they’re on. As a fan of this team this does feel a bit high, but this is where the record says they belong. The crazy schedule eases up a bit now, with an important 7AA game on the docket this week.
Need: more scoring punch
This week: Thurs at Grand Rapids

9. Roseau (12-1-1)
-Rolling through an easy stretch in their schedule, though they aren’t winning with the authority one might expect out of a team like this. They renew their biggest rivalry Thursday in what should be a great one.
Need: a healthy Adam Knochenmus
This week: Thurs vs. Warroad, Sat vs. Buffalo

10. Bloomington Jefferson (9-2-1)
-Just after they finally got a big win, they go and lose to Lakeville North and are therefore driven into ranking purgatory. There is too much talent on this team to be losing games like that, and they need to put together an adequate response this week or risk being dropped out of the rankings entirely. Burnsville game is a potential trap game.
Need: to start playing like a team and up to their ability
This week: Thurs at Burnsville, Sat at Rosemount

11. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (9-2-1)
-Plowed through Spring Lake Park and St. Louis Park, but have a huge game looming against Edina this week. With a weak conference, they need to take advantage of games like this one.
Need: more contributions from the lower lines
This week: Tues at #3 Edina, Fri at Totino-Grace

12. Osseo (9-2-1)
-Continue to clean up on weak teams, giving no indication of where they actually belong. Finally get into the meat of their NWSC schedule this week.
Need: hard to say; more games against quality opponents, perhaps
This week: Thurs at #15 Elk River, Sat vs. #14 Maple Grove

13. Holy Angels (5-4-1)
-After the rough start, the Edina tie was a big step in the right direction. With that result and the win over Elk River, they’ve shown they’re not quite as bad as some people have made them out to be. They can be difficult to measure, especially since all of their remaining games are against a) elite private schools, or b) the Missota. Not nearly enough middle ground on this schedule. They make their trip out east this week, which should be worth paying attention to.
Need: hard to say; I haven’t seen them. Someone else can fill in the blank.
This week: Tues at New Prague, Fri at Mt. St. Charles (RI), Sat at Boston Cathedral Memorial (MA)

14. Maple Grove (7-4-2)
-Towards the front of the NWSC, as all their wins have come against teams behind them in the rankings and all of their losses are to teams ahead of them. Continue a very difficult stretch this week as they take on the two teams in the conference ranked higher than them.
Need: probably more scoring punch
This week: Thurs vs. #5 Blaine, Sat at #11 Osseo

15. Elk River (6-5-1)
-Like Maple Grove, their wins are all against teams lower than them and their losses are to teams higher than them. At this point, I’d rather reward that sort of consistency than the inconsistency of some of the teams on the bubble. They also played Blaine tough this week, suggesting they’re a team to be reckoned with down the stretch. One big NWSC game this week.
Need: better play in the 3rd period of games. Random, but they have given up 10 more than they’ve scored in the 3rd this year.
This week: Thurs vs. #11 Osseo, Sat at Coon Rapids

Watch List
White Bear Lake (8-5)
-Win over Cretin gives them the inside track in the muddled SEC. They have some nice credentials, but I’m waiting for a little more consistency before pushing them up.
Centennial (6-5-1)
-Lost narrowly to two NWSC foes this week, dropping them out of the rankings for now. Tough stretch continues this week.
Apple Valley (8-4)
-Played Eagan well but came up short. They get Eden Prairie this week.
Burnsville (6-5-2)
-Playing well of late; huge week ahead of them with a wounded Jefferson and Wayzata coming up.
Andover (10-2-1)
-Tying Maple Grove gives their otherwise incredibly weak schedule to date some credibility. Important tilt with Centennial this week.

Moorhead is not really in the bubble right now, but I do want to say something about them. Though they’re clearly struggling now, it’s important to remember that they looked to be going to pieces at this point last year too, and still wound up finishing second at State. Of course, they didn’t have a strong Roseau team to deal with last year, but it’s not impossible for them to come out of 8AA, and any other team that’s struggling now should keep their run last year in mind.

My regular readers may remember my attempt to rate each team’s strength of schedule in the preseason rankings. The method involves assigning a number 1-5 to every team on a schedule, with 5 being the elite teams and 1 being the bottom teams. I figured this would be my best opportunity to revisit it, and now that we have a lot of results the numbering is a lot less arbitrary. To give us some idea of what we might be in for in the second half, here are the SOS scores (total # of points from numbering divided by number of games) for all the teams I gave a score of ‘4’ or ‘5’ for all games through Saturday, and the remainder of the season.

First half
1. Edina 4.071
2. Duluth East 3.929
3. Wayzata 3.917
4T. Moorhead 3.833
4T. Elk River 3.833
6. Blaine 3.846
7. White Bear Lake 3.615
8. Burnsville 3.615
9T. Centennial 3.583
9T. Jefferson 3.583
11. Minnetonka 3.571
12. Maple Grove 3.538
13. Eden Prairie 3.500
14. Hill-Murray 3.462
15T. Eagan 3.417
15T. Apple Valley 3.417
17. Holy Angels 3.400
18. Benilde 3.333
19. Osseo 3.250
20. Cretin 3.167
21. Tartan 3.154
22. Roseau 3.071
23. Andover 2.769

Second half
1. Edina 3.818
2T. Moorhead 3.833
2T. Andover 3.833
4. Centennial 3.692
5. Burnsville 3.667
6T. Minnetonka 3.636
6T. Duluth East 3.636
8. Osseo 3.615
9. Eden Prairie 3.600
10T. Jefferson 3.538
10T. Wayzata 3.538
12T. Blaine 3.500
12T. Maple Grove 3.500
14T. Eagan 3.385
14T. Elk River 3.385
16. Cretin 3.307
17. Holy Angels 3.276
18. Apple Valley 3.214
19. Roseau 3.181
20. Benilde 3.077
21. White Bear Lake 3.000
22. Hill-Murray 2.917
23. Tartan 2.667

Please note that this is not an ordered list of all the hardest schedules in the state, and that this is a very inexact science. But there I think there are a few surprises, and it does explain some things and give some idea of how a team might do in the second half.

Comment away!

[PowerForward25]

I like the new "need" part of the rankings. Adds to the description. Yet another fantastic job Karl!

[Goldfishdude]

Karl... I also agree with the "needs" portion, and you have listened to my voice about my WBL Bears.

Now, because of the win versus Cretin, I think they should be right behind Eagan (sorry HHF - just teasing), and I totally agree with where you have them, as the win versus CDH "helps", because the other two wins this week versus East Ridge and Park were not good.

WBL still has to prove a little bit more to me than beating a one-trick line team in CDH. WBL still has Woodbury twice, Stillwater and Cretin again, AND, Forest Lake has proven to have upset ability, and Mounds View will be out to prove the earlier W vs WBL was not a fluke.

Now, you have Hill-Murray #2 and their need is stronger goaltending. The irony of it is that Coach Lex may have made one of the few mistakes in recent memory. He let senior Basil Sampair walk away.

When Sampair transferred to WBL Nov 10th (and ultimately ruled ineligible), he WAS the best goaltender for WBL, and after seeing him on the ice for about 6 captain's practices, he showed me enough to make me wonder "how in the world did Lex think Tim Shaughnessy was better than Sampair?" I have later heard that Sampair had attitude problems, because of lack of playing time, and I can see why.

I think if Lex kept Sampair and given him a shot, there would be a different story for two reasons. #1 Sampair may have taken the job or #2 Sampair would have provided a significant "threat" to Shaughnessy and made him improve via the practice route, or in-game focus.

H-M is still the landslide favorite to go to state, but advancing to the semi-final will be strictly based on opponent, because of goaltending.

[breakout]

Agree with your assessment of the Jags. They have a lot of talented players. However, some of their key guys are playing like individuals.

My advice, take a lesson from EP last year and Tonka this year. Shove the egos to the side and come together as a team. Otherwise, your season will be cut shorter than anticipated.

[wbmd]

Watch List
White Bear Lake (8-5)
-Win over Cretin gives them the inside track in the muddled SEC. They have some nice credentials, but I’m waiting for a little more consistency before pushing them up.

A White Bear win over cretin gives the Bears 'the inside track in the muddled SEC'???

Perhaps you should pull your head out of D.C. and pay better attention.

If you look at the current SEC standings below (along with overall records) you will notice that White Bear does not quite have 'the inside track in the muddled SEC'.

Cretin 6-1-0 (9-3-0)
Woodbury 5-1-1 (7-6-1)
WBL 5-1-0 (8-5-0)
Stillwater 3-3-1 (5-7-1)
Forest Lake 3-1-2 (5-3-2)
Mounds View 3-4-0 (6-5-2)
Hastings 3-4-0 (6-7-0)
Roseville 2-4-1 (4-8-1)
Park 1-5-1 (2-9-1)
East Ridge 0-7-0 (3-10-0)

[Goldfishdude]

Actually, wbmd, I can speak for Karl on this one, because I understood what he meant.

It's a horse race, and he gave WBL the "inside track" by virtue of the head-to-head win vs CDH, AND Stillwater in compared to the teams on top 3 in pts.

CDH, Woodtown and WBL have not had any head-to-head games yet, and WBL has not played Forest Lake yet. He is aware that it will be subject to change when the top 3 teams meet... for example... if Woodtown beats WBL, than the Royals will have the inside track, etc...

WBL has the lead around the first turn of the track... 3 more turns, eh, Karl??

In fact, I was going to offer up that Woodbury needs to start being in the "others to watch", because up to this point, I think Woodbury's strength of schedule is better than WBL and the Bears are at 7th.

[karl(east)]

Watch List
White Bear Lake (8-5)
-Win over Cretin gives them the inside track in the muddled SEC. They have some nice credentials, but I’m waiting for a little more consistency before pushing them up.

A White Bear win over cretin gives the Bears 'the inside track in the muddled SEC'???

Perhaps you should pull your head out of D.C. and pay better attention.

If you look at the current SEC standings below (along with overall records) you will notice that White Bear does not quite have 'the inside track in the muddled SEC'.

Cretin 6-1-0 (9-3-0)
Woodbury 5-1-1 (7-6-1)
WBL 5-1-0 (8-5-0)
Stillwater 3-3-1 (5-7-1)
Forest Lake 3-1-2 (5-3-2)
Mounds View 3-4-0 (6-5-2)
Hastings 3-4-0 (6-7-0)
Roseville 2-4-1 (4-8-1)
Park 1-5-1 (2-9-1)
East Ridge 0-7-0 (3-10-0)

These numbers, which I knew anyway, did nothing to change my mind. Goldy is right in his interpretation of my statement.

If you want to offer some thoughtful reasons as to why WBL shouldn't be the favorite to win the SEC right now based on what's happened, I'd be glad to hear them. What you just gave me are not thoughtful reasons.

I am fine with people disagreeing with me and thereby prompting intelligent discussion. But I do not take the implication that I'm not paying enough attention kindly, thank you very much.

[Goldfishdude]

Karl.. I edited my post... I would be curious as to Woodbury's strength of schedule. I am pretty sure it's been harder than WBL's.. I believe that Woodbury has done enough as of late to get to the "Others to Watch"!!

[HShockeywatcher]

13. Holy Angels ... all of their remaining games are against a) elite private schools, or b) the Missota. Not nearly enough middle ground on this schedule.

I will agree with Shattuck, Boston Catholic and Mt. St Charles, but I don't consider Hill Murray or Benilde "elite private schools."

-Hill Murray; personally, I would say Hill hasn't done anything to prove they are a top 5 team. I would put them right above East, maybe in front of Eagan. Blaine beat them 6-4 and is sitting at #5, I don't feel they've done anything to prove they should be ahead of them.

-Eden Prairie; defending champs only lost to who I feel are #1 and #2, they should be #3/#4 (depending on how you feel about them compared to Blaine) imo.

-Roseau; I would either move them up to right under Blaine (as they lost by 1 to them) or move them down under Benilde (as the Rams have played all of two AA teams this season.

-Holy Angels; I would put them right under East, who beat them. Of their three other losses, two were against the #1 team and they recently tied your #3 (my #2) team. I'd say #13 is a little low. But I see a ten game win streak coming into their game with Shattuck, so it's all good.

Great rankings Karl. As always, thanks for your hard work.

[karl(east)]

Karl.. I edited my post... I would be curious as to Woodbury's strength of schedule. I am pretty sure it's been harder than WBL's.. I believe that Woodbury has done enough as of late to get to the "Others to Watch"!!

I did calculate Woodbury's SOS; it comes in at 3.571, which would tie for 11th by my system. Very close to WBL's, but not quite as strong. (For the second half, it's 3.364--much better than WBL's. That's probably because they haven't played WBL or CDH yet.)

Woodbury had a better week last week, but right now their biggest win is over Tartan, who I'm not overly impressed with. WBL got Holy Angels, and Cretin got BSM.

They certainly have the talent to win the SEC, and it is, of course, possible for the frontrunner in the conference to change. If Woodbury plays up to its potential and has a big week against WBL and Cretin next week, they'll go rocketing up the rankings. But I like where I have them now, which is somewhere between 21 and 24 with the likes of Cretin, Lakeville South, and Moorhead.

[east hockey]

Karl.. I edited my post... I would be curious as to Woodbury's strength of schedule. I am pretty sure it's been harder than WBL's.. I believe that Woodbury has done enough as of late to get to the "Others to Watch"!!

FWIW, Woodbury's opponents' average PageStat is 18.52, WBL is 18.52. Exactly the same.

The teams are also similar in their PageStat ratings, WBL is #27 overall, Woodbury is #28. I'd say either include both or exclude both.

Lee

[HShockeywatcher]

Goldfishdude,

while I agree Woodbury has a good SOS, unlike WBL, they have no quality wins on schedule. Just my two cents. Maybe at the bottom of the team to watch list, but haven't proven anything yet. Play both WBL and CDH this week, so no biggie, we'll see what they can do.

[karl(east)]

13. Holy Angels ... all of their remaining games are against a) elite private schools, or b) the Missota. Not nearly enough middle ground on this schedule.

I will agree with Shattuck, Boston Catholic and Mt. St Charles, but I don't consider Hill Murray or Benilde "elite private schools."

-Hill Murray; personally, I would say Hill hasn't done anything to prove they are a top 5 team. I would put them right above East, maybe in front of Eagan. Blaine beat them 6-4 and is sitting at #5, I don't feel they've done anything to prove they should be ahead of them.

-Eden Prairie; defending champs only lost to who I feel are #1 and #2, they should be #3/#4 (depending on how you feel about them compared to Blaine) imo.

-Roseau; I would either move them up to right under Blaine (as they lost by 1 to them) or move them down under Benilde (as the Rams have played all of two AA teams this season.

-Holy Angels; I would put them right under East, who beat them. Of their three other losses, two were against the #1 team and they recently tied your #3 (my #2) team. I'd say #13 is a little low. But I see a ten game win streak coming into their game with Shattuck, so it's all good.

Great rankings Karl. As always, thanks for your hard work.

Most of your contentions there are pretty valid. With Hill, I'm rewarding the hot team, as they got two big wins this week. I don't really like them at 2 either, but I suppose I don't really like anyone there at the moment, since the void between Tonka and the rest is so big. If Edina beats Benilde, they'll go back up to #2.

I'm a little higher on EP than Blaine right now; that's why EP's at #4 and Blaine's at #5.

As you suggest, Roseau is very hard to rank. The Blaine loss does indeed suggest they should be higher, but the Grand Forks Red River tie was not a quality result, and they haven't been beating up on their competition lately the way you might expect out of a top team. That might be because Knochenmus is out, but I'm not taking injuries into account here. So I'm taking the middle ground for now.

I do like where I have Holy Angels, though. That WBL loss was pretty bad, and though a tie against Edina is impressive, Elk River is their only big win. Interesting that you see a 10-game win streak upcoming; you're assuming they'll beat Hill? But as you say, they'll probably pound on everyone else, which might let them climb as the NWSC, Lake, and Classic Lake teams beat each other up.

[HShockeywatcher]

Interesting that you see a 10-game win streak upcoming; you're assuming they'll beat Hill? But as you say, they'll probably pound on everyone else, which might let them climb as the NWSC, Lake, and Classic Lake teams beat each other up.

It's tough when you're in a conference whose teams insist on playing you twice (why is that?) that isn't good in hockey and 3 of your 11 non-conference games are non-MSHSL games.

I don't know anything about the teams out East, but it would be nice to see a MN team win against out of state teams (it would be nice to see a public school rep like that). And I'm just going with my overall opinion of Hill; a two goal win with an empty netter against STA makes them good, but not great. The game is at Aldrich, but I'm hoping Hill Murrary's sails will get deflated a little.

Hill only beat WBL by 1 their last match up...I'd expect more out of a #2 team

[Gov78]

My $.02 on AHA "needs": They need to finish their chances as they seem to generate a lot of shots and from the 3 times I've seen them they've had chances to get back into games against stronger teams but can't score when on the doorstep.

Also, AHA needs their 2nd line to hold the opposition's 1st line to a draw when that match up happens. No need to try and carry the shift as you're setting the table for the first line.

[mngophs04]

Karl.. I edited my post... I would be curious as to Woodbury's strength of schedule. I am pretty sure it's been harder than WBL's.. I believe that Woodbury has done enough as of late to get to the "Others to Watch"!!

I agree with Karl.. Woodbury's biggest win is Tartan, which IMO is not comparable to WBL's win over Holy Angels or close game vs. Hill in the Schwan's cup. Also, White Bear's loss to Mounds View isn't quite as embarrassing as Woodbury's loss to Park. Of course, we'll know after they play Tuesday.

[besthockeyfan]

Karl,
Let me first start by saying I appreciate all of the time you put into doing these rankings. You really make some good points with most teams. That said I will have to disagree with you having Duluth East at number 8. While I understand they have had a tough schedule as of late, let's review their past few weeks. Lose to Tonka 6-2 (with Tonkas backup goalie in and outshot 27-17). Tie Blaine at home (good tie but one good game every few doesn't merit a top ten ranking). Barely beat Holy Angels 3-2 who didn't win a game in the Schwan's cup and got exposed. Got beat soundly by both Hill Murray and Edina 5-1 and 3-0 respectively and tied a now unranked and struggling Moorhead 2-2. That's 1-3-2 over the last 6 games. Now I saw them play two games and they did not look like even a top 15 team to me. Another thing I wanted to point out is over those last six games they have been outscored 20-10. Now ten goals in six games to me doesn't even merit a top twenty ranking, yet they move from 13 last week (which I thought was too high as well) to 8 this week? I don't see the logic in moving a team up 5 spots with a loss (and not a close one) and a tie? While I know you are a DE fan, I need to see a lot more from this team to merit a top top 10 ranking. I also need to see a quality win, not just a win. Thanks again for your time and effort and good luck the rest of the way to your Greyhounds!

[HShockeywatcher]

besthockeyfan,

who the wins/losses come against is what matter. For example, aside from Vriginia, St thomas has more losses than anyone else in the top 5 in class A, but their schedule is why they are so high.

East is exactly where I'd put them

[chester1991]

2. Hill-Murray (11-1-1)
-While the other teams in the pack chasing Minnetonka had a tough week, Hill took control of the CSC with solid wins over STA and Tartan. Now they get to spend some time cleaning up on some less-than-stellar competition.
Need: strong goaltending
This week: Thurs at Richfield, Sat vs. St. Paul North

Karl, Who is St. Paul North? New school?

[besthockeyfan]

besthockeyfan,

who the wins/losses come against is what matter. For example, aside from Vriginia, St thomas has more losses than anyone else in the top 5 in class A, but their schedule is why they are so high.

East is exactly where I'd put them

While I understand your logic, if all the games were close I may have a different opinion, but they haven't been in half of those six games? Let me give you an example as to why this ranking doesn't make sense. I hate to use this as an example but this will make HHF very happy Let's say Eagan beats Rosemount next week and then loses to Eden Prairie in a close game, say 3-2 or 4-2. Does DE deserve to move ahead of Eagan? No, but would they, more than likely based on where they are currently ranked (only two spots behind Eagan). So that means a team who loses its first game of the year would move behind a team who has only won one of their last six and lost badly in three of them? It doesn't make too much sense, does it?

[Pioneerprideguy]

HShockey dude,

I totally agree that Hill should not be considered an elite team. In fact, I think they should opt down to play Class A. Who knows, maybe then they would be considered an elite team??

Not a big deal. Personally, I prefer that they not draw extra attention with a high ranking (they get enough just by who they are). Lex is shuffling lines right now& looking to get things ready for sections. After watching the game against Tartan, I'm more convinced that HM/WB are the two best teams in this section. Tartan showed nothing & there is a major difference in speed between HM & Tartan. I believe Tartan's best is behind them. This team is loaded with seniors & Hill's JV drilled thiers.

So let's leave the varsity rankings to Karl & you focus on the JV side of things.

[karl(east)]

Karl, Who is St. Paul North? New school?

Nope, they've been around for a while. Sometimes they're just called "North," I believe. They're in the Classic Suburban. Here's their page on the Hub: http://www.mnhockeyhub.com/page/show/51986


Re: besthockeyfan

As I mentioned in the write-up, East does feel a little high to me where they are. I may be an East fan, but I can be very critical of the team at times, and I don't think I have anything to gain from ranking them higher than they belong. And, as HShockeywatcher notes, the record does suggest they belong about here.

East has wins against AHA (13), MG (14), WBL (16), and Centennial (17), so it's pretty clear that they should be ahead of all of these. Roseau and Osseo, two of the teams also in the 8-12 range, have very weak schedules and nowhere near this many quality wins. That's why East is ahead of those two.

East also has no bad losses. They have one tie that might be considered "bad" now, though it wasn't at the time (Moorhead). But the other teams in this grey area--Benilde and Jefferson--have poor losses (Benilde to Cretin, Jefferson to LVN). Benilde also lost to Centennial, a common opponent.

I think East can be a deceptive team to watch, since they simply don't score many goals. Their wins are going to be close, yes, but there have been some pretty obvious trends in their play.

As for their losses, the Wayzata loss was in OT, so it's understandable that these teams be close (East also outshot heavily outshot Wayzata.) The Edina game, which appears uneven on paper, was scoreless until the 3rd period, and the last goal was an EN. The Hill game was a blowout, I'll give you that. I was at the Tonka game yesterday; East matched and probably outshot Tonka 5-on-5. The game was 2-1 Tonka in the 3rd, too. Only when East started taking stupid penalties did the game start to get out of hand (see the game thread on that one for more of my thoughts). So I'll argue that this one wasn't as uneven as the score indicated, either.

Are they a great team? No. Will they rise any higher than #8? Probably only if they beat Eden Prairie. But they are a good team that for the most part takes care of business and can play with anyone in the state.

[CB00]

Karl,
Let me first start by saying I appreciate all of the time you put into doing these rankings. You really make some good points with most teams. That said I will have to disagree with you having Duluth East at number 8. While I understand they have had a tough schedule as of late, let's review their past few weeks. Lose to Tonka 6-2 (with Tonkas backup goalie in and outshot 27-17). Tie Blaine at home (good tie but one good game every few doesn't merit a top ten ranking). Barely beat Holy Angels 3-2 who didn't win a game in the Schwan's cup and got exposed. Got beat soundly by both Hill Murray and Edina 5-1 and 3-0 respectively and tied a now unranked and struggling Moorhead 2-2. That's 1-3-2 over the last 6 games. Now I saw them play two games and they did not look like even a top 15 team to me. Another thing I wanted to point out is over those last six games they have been outscored 20-10. Now ten goals in six games to me doesn't even merit a top twenty ranking, yet they move from 13 last week (which I thought was too high as well) to 8 this week? I don't see the logic in moving a team up 5 spots with a loss (and not a close one) and a tie? While I know you are a DE fan, I need to see a lot more from this team to merit a top top 10 ranking. I also need to see a quality win, not just a win. Thanks again for your time and effort and good luck the rest of the way to your Greyhounds!

BestHockeyFan- you took the words out of my mouth. East should not ranked 8th.

I could see them in the 12-15 range. 1-3-2 doesn't justify a move up!

[playerplayer1]

Karl, Who is St. Paul North? New school?

Nope, they've been around for a while. Sometimes they're just called "North," I believe. They're in the Classic Suburban. Here's their page on the Hub: http://www.mnhockeyhub.com/page/show/51986


Re: besthockeyfan

As I mentioned in the write-up, East does feel a little high to me where they are. I may be an East fan, but I can be very critical of the team at times, and I don't think I have anything to gain from ranking them higher than they belong. And, as HShockeywatcher notes, the record does suggest they belong about here.

East has wins against AHA (13), MG (14), WBL (16), and Centennial (17), so it's pretty clear that they should be ahead of all of these. Roseau and Osseo, two of the teams also in the 8-12 range, have very weak schedules and nowhere near this many quality wins. That's why East is ahead of those two.

East also has no bad losses. They have one tie that might be considered "bad" now, though it wasn't at the time (Moorhead). But the other teams in this grey area--Benilde and Jefferson--have poor losses (Benilde to Cretin, Jefferson to LVN). Benilde also lost to Centennial, a common opponent.

I think East can be a deceptive team to watch, since they simply don't score many goals. Their wins are going to be close, yes, but there have been some pretty obvious trends in their play.

As for their losses, the Wayzata loss was in OT, so it's understandable that these teams be close (East also outshot heavily outshot Wayzata.) The Edina game, which appears uneven on paper, was scoreless until the 3rd period, and the last goal was an EN. The Hill game was a blowout, I'll give you that. I was at the Tonka game yesterday; East matched and probably outshot Tonka 5-on-5. The game was 2-1 Tonka in the 3rd, too. Only when East started taking stupid penalties did the game start to get out of hand (see the game thread on that one for more of my thoughts). So I'll argue that this one wasn't as uneven as the score indicated, either.

Are they a great team? No. Will they rise any higher than #8? Probably only if they beat Eden Prairie. But they are a good team that for the most part takes care of business and can play with anyone in the state.

I hate to say it Karl because I respect your rankings so much but besthockeyfan and CB00 make great points. This team belongs in the 12-15 range just like last week. They are not a top ten team right now. They may become one, but 1-3-2 in their last six games does not add up to a top ten. I think you need to think about an edit like last week.

[schwang17]

So Jefferson beats Wayzata but they are now 5 spots behind them. They have 1 bad loss to LV North, that is it. With Eagan running things the way they are you can't possibly take that as a bad loss. Your rankings are very detailed and pretty good but putting Jefferson at #12 is hideous. East and Wayzata are also too high, 1 good game out of 6 shouldn't move you up in the standings.