Time to play some catch-up.
Slap Shot wrote:karl - question about your SOS ratings. I'm surprised to see that much separation between Tonka's and Edina's. Yes, MHS did play PCG, Hibbing and Virginia, but Edina played St. Louis Park and Chaska/Chan, and they seem to have played an even number of games again mid-level and high-level teams.
Not a big deal in the end but I did find to be curious.
I went back and looked at it again...both teams have 5 games against opponents rate '5'. The difference lies in Tonka playing only 2 '4' teams (DE, AHA), while Edina has played 5 (MG, Burnsville, ER, DE, AHA). Edina has played 4 teams rated '3' (Woodbury, GR, Chaska, and SLP---though in hindsight SLP should not be a 3. So that would knock Edina's SOS down a tiny bit, to 4.000). Tonka has played 6 teams rated '3' (Woodbury, DM, Hibbing, Virginia, Park, Stillwater). So the difference probably came from Tonka's early season games against all those 7A opponents--good A teams, but not on the level of some of the opponents Edina scheduled, like MG, ER, and Burnsville.
Next, my comment that Duluth East won't rise was probably too absolute, as several of you have noted. I'll instead say "Jefferson and Benilde are more likely to rise in the coming weeks than Duluth East is." That's just a fact of SOS, which I clearly put a lot of weight on--those two have a few more opportunities against tougher teams over the next couple of weeks, at least until East plays EP.
BodyShots wrote:Are you saying if a team wins the rest of their games, they could drop in the standings? Is score differential the driving force? Do we have to run up scores like college football in order to get top rankings. IMO, if you beat the teams put in front of you, you should not drop in the rankings. Maybe not rise, but definately not drop. That's why you don't put somebody higher than they belong at the currrent point in time.
It is possible, though highly unlikely. Anyone who watches a lot of HS hockey knows that even great teams can have some ugly slip-ups in a season (think Hill-Murray two years ago), so I definitely think we need to reward consistency. I think it's important to note that just because a team wins all its games in a given week, it's still possible for them to drop if a team right behind them has a big win or two.
Score differential isn't really the driving force; I think quality wins, or results against other good teams in general, is the most important criterion. I really don't care how many goals teams blow out the weaker competition by. I only pay attention to those games if there's an upset, or maybe if there's a trend of games being suspiciously close. If there is an upset, I do penalize pretty forcefully and consistently. That can occasionally lead to a good team (ie. Jefferson) appearing lower than they should be. I recall a similar drop of Blaine in the rankings stirring up a similar storm last year, and I did the same thing when Duluth East lost to Rochester Century last year too. That may be a practice I should re-evaluate; I don't know.
And as for Blaine, I too saw the East game and agree they have some flaws...but really, who doesn't, beyond the top 3 or so? Their only losses are by 1 goal to Edina and Tonka, and they've beaten a lot of good teams, including Hill (2), Roseau (9), Osseo (11), and Elk River (14), and STA (A #1). I think they are where they should be for now; if they start losing these close games down the stretch, they'll drop accordingly.
I agree with goldy313 on Roseau; relating back to the point above, it's hard to know what to do with a team that's winning out against a very weak schedule. Perhaps the Warroad game this week will provide some clarity.
Its self-evident.
