NCAA Hockey Polls

[HShockeywatcher]

I follow the Gophers hockey team and religiously check where they are ranked on Mondays. Well, this season has really confused me about how the ranking system works. While I'm not claiming the Gophers have shown to be a top 5 team this season, as they have lost to MSU, NM and UAA, they definitely have proven to be better than #28 (where they sit now). While it may seem long, the following explains confusions throughout the season:

They started the season at #8 and played #4 UND going 0-1-1 against them, which I would think would be expected. But they dropped to #12. Then played #4 Denver and went 0-2 and were unranked the next week. That's basically like Holy Angels this year, going 0-4 with the first 4 good teams they played. Except in their case they stayed noticed because they lost to good teams, whereas when the Gophers also got a tie in those games and lost to good teams, they fell off the map.

Then in the next two months they were in the top 25-30 range a couple times, but nothing special, while they did beat the #7 team twice and lose two 1 goal games to UMD.

The start of the calendar year brought a tie and a win to UND who was at #5 I believe. UND dropped one spot and UM got a handful of points. The loss to UAA was not a good one but two close losses to #2 Denver and wins against #8 CC get them #28, while CC falls 5 spots. They beat UMD last night. So we'll see what happens.

In a nut shell, I'm just curious about how points are assigned to teams in the polls; is it all voters? is there some computer program in place? etc, etc

My hunch is that the people giving points realize the quality of the Gophers team so they don't drop teams they beat too far, but don't want them to be ranked. But really, I'm just curious as to how points are assigned.

The thing that are happening on a regular basis are like a team like Winona beating a team like Edina or Blaine twice, or tying the second game, and Edina just dropping one spot and no one saying a thing about Winona. Very odd.

Thanks for any positive feedback.



I'm aware this may get moved, but I'd like to get as much feedback from people who know as possible.

[defense]

No, not confusing, the Gophers get what they deserve and more. Generally people are very generous with the Gophers. As I understand it, this is a "POLL", not a ranking. In a poll people vote. At the end of the season the NCAA puts out a pairwise ranking that compiles polls and computer rankings etc....

[ACTUALFORMERPLAYER]

Pairwise rankings are put out every week all season. They are the only rankings that matter since they are the only ones used to fill out the at-large births to the NCAA tourney.

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwr.php

[MNHockey75]

Pairwise rankings are put out every week all season. They are the only rankings that matter since they are the only ones used to fill out the at-large births to the NCAA tourney.

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwr.php

Pairwise rankings are updated after every game. Right now Minnesota is in 21st. If they can go the rest of the season and final five with just 1 loss, they should make it. It isn't going to be easy.

[MNHockey75]

As of right now, here is the field of 16:

1. Denver
2. Miami
3. Wisconsin
4. St. Cloud State
5. Bemidji State
6. Yale
7. Boston College
8. North Dakota
9. New Hampshire
10. Cornell
11. Michigan State
12. Alaska
13. Vermont
14. Ferris State
15. Northern Michigan
-- RIT

[canttouchthis]

gophers need to change what they are doing. The years they won it all they had a good mix of guys. To many skilled guys can make a team one dimensional. They obviously have an advantage being the school all minnesota high school players want to go to. There is no reason they should be this bad 3 years in a row.

[HShockeywatcher]

No, not confusing, the Gophers get what they deserve and more. Generally people are very generous with the Gophers. As I understand it, this is a "POLL", not a ranking. In a poll people vote. At the end of the season the NCAA puts out a pairwise ranking that compiles polls and computer rankings etc....

I understand this is how a poll works. In most polls, they list votes...since people voted. In this poll, they list points, which is why I asked how they get points.

gophers need to change what they are doing. The years they won it all they had a good mix of guys. To many skilled guys can make a team one dimensional. They obviously have an advantage being the school all minnesota high school players want to go to. There is no reason they should be this bad 3 years in a row.

This bad?
They are 17-15-2;
-11 of their 15 losses are to teams in the top 11 of the above list, 10 are in the top 8.
-Both ties to the #8 team.
-Beat the #3; 1-1 against them.
-Beat the #5; 1-1 against them.
-Beat the #8; 1-1-2 against them.
-Beat the #11; 1-0 against them.
-Beat the #16; 2-0 against them.
-Beat the #18; 1-2 against them. (play them again tonight)
0-4 against the #1 team.
0-1 against #15 team.
0-1 against the #25 team.
20 of their 34 games have been played against 9 of the top 25 teams in the nation and while they do have a good number of losses, they have 7 wins and 2 ties.
They aren't bad, but I wouldn't try to argue they're amazing either.

Of the 25 players listed on their roster online:
6 are seniors
6 are juniors
9 are sophomores
4 are freshmen
In addition, they have a nice group of recruits committed for both next year and the year after. Having beat teams they have this year and knowing 6 seniors will be leaving this year, next and 9 the year after that I would say they have a bright future.



I digress...simply curious if anyone knows how points are assigned in the poll, as it doesn't seem to reflect the result of games played the week before always, imho.

[MNHockey75]

I digress...simply curious if anyone knows how points are assigned in the poll, as it doesn't seem to reflect the result of games played the week before always, imho.

I believe 50 experts vote every monday morning. They rank 1-20. The first place team gets 20 pts and the 20th place team gets 1 pt. So on and so forth. Not too many guys are going to vote for a .500 team. The polls mean nothing however. The Pairwise is everything. Your non-conference schedule and results are HUGE. Strength of schedule is HUGE. And you need to win games you're supposed to win. Something the Gophers have struggled to do. That being said, here is the Pairwise at this very moment...

1. Denver
2. Miami
3. Wisconsin
4. St. Cloud State
5. Bemidji State
6. Boston College
7. North Dakota
8. Yale
9. Alaska
10. New Hampshire
11. Cornell
12. Michigan State
13. Vermont
14. Minnesota-Duluth
15. Ferris State
--- RIT

18. Nebraska-Omaha
20. Colorado College
24. Minnesota

[mulefarm]

Is Bemidji high enough so if they don't win the conference playoff they can still make the NCAA?

[ACTUALFORMERPLAYER]

Is Bemidji high enough so if they don't win the conference playoff they can still make the NCAA?

They are a lock. They also have a legitimate shot at one of the #1 seeds.

[defense]

Is Bemidji high enough so if they don't win the conference playoff they can still make the NCAA?

You really think Bemidji will have to worry about not winning their conference???

[mulefarm]

They have won the CHA title. The playoffs are single elimination, and playoff champion gets automatic berth to NCAA tourney. Just wasn't sure if they would make NCAA if they lost in playoffs.

[defense]

They have won the CHA title. The playoffs are single elimination, and playoff champion gets automatic berth to NCAA tourney. Just wasn't sure if they would make NCAA if they lost in playoffs.

I think they should get in either way. I am and was well aware that the winner of the league tournement gets the automatic bid. That was what I am saying, they do play the games for a reason....but I just don't think that Bemidji will lose in that tournement.

[ACTUALFORMERPLAYER]

They have won the CHA title. The playoffs are single elimination, and playoff champion gets automatic berth to NCAA tourney. Just wasn't sure if they would make NCAA if they lost in playoffs.

I think they should get in either way. I am and was well aware that the winner of the league tournement gets the automatic bid. That was what I am saying, they do play the games for a reason....but I just don't think that Bemidji will lose in that tournement.

Bemidji is tied with SCSU at #4 in the pairwise rankings. If they win their conference tourney they have a very solid shot at being one of the 4 #1 seeds in the regionals. Minneapolis is the likely destination. If they lost instantly in the conference playoffs I think a top 8 ranking and a two seed is still very likely.
Throw all of that out if SCSU wins the Final Five. They would then be the #1 in the Minneapolis regional. Highly unlikely.

[JSR]

Bracketology for the NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament

Step 1: Pick the 16 Tournament teams

1. Denver
2. Miami
3. Wisconsin
4. St. Cloud State
5. Bemidji State
6. Boston College
7. North Dakota
8. Yale
9. Alaska
10. New Hampshire
11. Cornell
12. Michigan State
13. Vermont
14. Minnesota Duluth
15. Ferris State
16. Atlantic Hockey Winner

Bubble Teams (Northern Michigan, Maine, Nebraska-Omaha, Union, Colorado College)

Step 2: Assign the Seeds

No. 1 Seeds: Denver, Miami, Wisconsin, St. Cloud
No. 2 Seeds: Bemidji, Boston College, North Dakota, Yale
No. 3 Seeds: Alaska, New Hampshire, Cornell, Michigan State
No. 4 Seeds: Vermont, Minnesota-Duluth, Ferris State, Atlantic Hockey Winner

Step 3: Place number 1 seeds in regionals

Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Denver is placed in the West regional in St. Paul
No. 2 Miami is placed in the Mid-West regional in Fort Wayne
No. 3 Wisconsin is placed in the East regional in Albany
No. 4 St. Cloud State is placed in Northeast regional in Worchester

Step 4: Place the other 12 teams avoiding inter-conference match ups if possible

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 Seeds:


No. 8 Yale is placed in No. 1 Denver's Regional, the West Regional.
No. 7 North Dakota is placed in No. 2 Miami's Regional, the Mid-West Regional.
No. 6 Boston College is placed in No. 3 Wisconsin's Regional, the East Regional.
No. 5 Bemidji State is placed in No. 4 St. Cloud's Regional, the Northeast Regional.

Number 3 Seeds:

Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.
No. 9 Alaska is placed in No. 8 Yale's Regional, the West Regional.
No. 10 New Hampshire is placed in No. 7 North Dakota's Regional, the Mid-West Regional.
No. 11 Cornell is placed in No. 6 Boston College's Regional, the East Regional.
No. 12 Michigan State is placed in No. 5 Bemidji State's Regional, the Northeast Regional.

Number 4 seeds:

One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.

No. 16 Atlantic Hockey Winner is sent to No. 1 Denver's Regional, the West Regional.
No. 15 Ferris State is sent to No. 2 Miami's Regional, the Mid-West Regional.
No. 14 Minnesota Duluth is sent to No. 3 Wisconsin's Regional, the East Regional.
No. 13 Vermont is sent to No. 4 St. Cloud's Regional, the Northeast Regional.

Our Bracket as we have it set up:

West Regional:

1 Denver vs 16 Atlantic Hockey Champ
8 Yale vs 9 Alaska

Midwest Regional:

2 Miami vs 15 Ferris State
7 North Dakota vs 10 New Hampshire

East Regional:

3 Wisconsin vs 14 Minnesota-Duluth
6 Boston College vs 11 Cornell

Northeast Regional:

4 St. Cloud State vs 13 Vermont
5 Bemidji vs 12 Michigan State

Our first concern is to avoid inter-conference first round match ups. We have two, Wisconsin vs Minnesota-Duluth and Miami vs Ferris State. Since they are both 1 vs 4 match ups, we can easily switch Ferris State and Minnesota Duluth.

So now we have:

West Regional (St. Paul, MN):

1 Denver vs 16 Atlantic Hockey Champ
8 Yale vs 9 Alaska

Midwest Regional (Fort Wayne, IN):

2 Miami vs 14 Minnesota-Duluth
7 North Dakota vs 10 New Hampshire

East Regional (Albany, NY):

3 Wisconsin vs 15 Ferris State
6 Boston College vs 11 Cornell

Northeast Regional (Worchester, MA):

4 St. Cloud State vs 13 Vermont
5 Bemidji vs 12 Michigan State

So now we have avoided inter-conference match ups. Integrity looks good. How about attendance? The East looks ok with BC and Cornell in Albany. Worchester has Vermont, the Mid-West has Miami, and North Dakota. St. Paul looks awful for attendance. There is a couple of things that we can do. I'm going to switch out the St. Paul pod with the Worchester pod so that St. Cloud and Bemidji are in St. Paul. I Also am switching #9 Alaska with #10 New Hampshire.

So our FINAL tournament now is:

Northeast Regional (Worchester, MA):

1 Denver vs 16 Atlantic Hockey Champ
8 Yale vs 10 New Hampshire

Midwest Regional (Fort Wayne, IN):

2 Miami vs 14 Minnesota-Duluth
7 North Dakota vs 9 Alaska

East Regional (Albany, NY):

3 Wisconsin vs 15 Ferris State
6 Boston College vs 11 Cornell

West Regional (St. Paul, MN):

4 St. Cloud State vs 13 Vermont
5 Bemidji vs 12 Michigan State

I like that bracket a LOT better. We now have Miami and North Dakota in Fort Wayne, St. Cloud and Bemidji in St. Paul, New Hampshire and the Atlantic Hockey Champion (most likely RIT) in Worchester, and Boston College and Cornell in Albany.

[ACTUALFORMERPLAYER]

Great Job copying and pasting Jason Moys weekly breakdown from USCHO.com.

[Youngblood10]

This bad?
They are 17-15-2;
-11 of their 15 losses are to teams in the top 11 of the above list, 10 are in the top 8.
-Both ties to the #8 team.
-Beat the #3; 1-1 against them.
-Beat the #5; 1-1 against them.
-Beat the #8; 1-1-2 against them.
-Beat the #11; 1-0 against them.
-Beat the #16; 2-0 against them.
-Beat the #18; 1-2 against them. (play them again tonight)
0-4 against the #1 team.
0-1 against #15 team.
0-1 against the #25 team.
20 of their 34 games have been played against 9 of the top 25 teams in the nation and while they do have a good number of losses, they have 7 wins and 2 ties.
They aren't bad, but I wouldn't try to argue they're amazing either.

Of the 25 players listed on their roster online:
6 are seniors
6 are juniors
9 are sophomores
4 are freshmen
In addition, they have a nice group of recruits committed for both next year and the year after. Having beat teams they have this year and knowing 6 seniors will be leaving this year, next and 9 the year after that I would say they have a bright future.



I digress...simply curious if anyone knows how points are assigned in the poll, as it doesn't seem to reflect the result of games played the week before always, imho.[/quote]

Hshockeywatcher- The very point you are trying to make by all these stats against "top 25" teams just shows how disillusioned you are. "Top 25" doesn't mean the same in college hockey as it does in football or basketball because their isn't close to the same number of teams in hockey. The Gophers should be the measuring stick for other teams not the other way around.

I'm a Gophers fan and it's easy for me to say, by their standards they' re terrible.

[gorilla1]

Hockeywatcher,

The other thing you need to keep in mind is that how the teams fair in the beginning of the season is important in the rankings (not the pairwise). As of the middle of December, the U had a records of 5-9-1 (before playing Mich. Tech). Their wins came from a sweep of AA, and splits with Mankato State and Bemidgi State. The lost against Michigan and beat Michigan State the next night. Not exactly impressive. At that time, the U was so far down in the rankings (as they should have been with that record) that they needed to go on a streak to get back into the mix. They then swept Michigan Tech, beat Bowling Green, lost to Northern Michigan, and swept Harvard. None of those wins were impressive based on who they played--and the loss was a bad loss to Northern Michigan. They were 10-10-1 at that point but no one takes notice by beating Mich. Tech, Bowling Green, and Harvard. When they tied and beat UND, they got some attention, but got swept by SCSU the next weekend. You can't have a bad start in the polls and then play average and expect to move in the rankings. In the end the pairwise matters more because it allegedly mirrors the NCAA selection process.

So i don't know what you were looking at every morning when you woke up, but the U belongs right where they are ranked today. It has been another down year for them. The only way they make the NCAA's is if they win the Final Five.

As for rankings, each who vote go backwards with points, i.e., first place gets 20, 2, gets 19, 3 gets 18, etc. . . It is coaches and writers who vote, depending on the poll.

[HShockeywatcher]

You can't have a bad start in the polls and then play average and expect to move in the rankings.

I understand this. But Then our definitions of bad may be different. They played the #4 team two weeks in a row. If you are ranked around #10, what is the expected outcome of the games? That you lose? I'd say so.
Well, they kept the games relatively close and even tied one of them, going 0-3-1 with 4 games against the #4 team in the country shouldn't drop you from #8 to unranked, assuming the ranking is correct.

It's not like they're losing to Hamline, they had a few bad losses in there, so does everyone. Anyone should know that in D1 hockey, record is definitely not everything, it's far from it. Colorado College, for example, is sub .500 in the WCHA, is ranked #15 in the polls after being swept by a sub.500 Gopher team two weekends ago. Hmmm...

[gorilla1]

Hockeywatcher,

When your team is 5-9-1 after 15 games, what are you supposed to be ranked, regardless of who you play? CC is still above 500 overall and is 15th in the rankings and is scrambling to make the NCAA's--which is right about where they should be. They had a good start to their season and they have been dropping since being swept by the U here and at home against UND. Have you looked at the Pairwise and RPI? The U is 24 in Pairwise, only one team in front of them has a worse record--BU is one game under 500 at #23. However, Michigan is 3 games over 500 and is #25 in Pairwise. In RPI, the U is 22 and every team in front of them has a better record. Both of those are numbers based and no one "votes." There are no conspiricy's as you are suggesting.

The U simply cannot go 5-9-1 (or any team for that matter), beat awful team to get to 500 in Bowling Green, Harvard, and Mich. Tech., and then play average the rest of the season and expect to be ranked in the top 20 with a 500 record. After Harvard, the won and tied against UND, got swept by SCSU, split with AA, got swept by DU, swept CC at home and split with UMD. You think that deserves being ranked top 15? Where do you think they should be ranked. Just curious.

[defense]

No, not confusing, the Gophers get what they deserve and more. Generally people are very generous with the Gophers. As I understand it, this is a "POLL", not a ranking. In a poll people vote. At the end of the season the NCAA puts out a pairwise ranking that compiles polls and computer rankings etc....

I understand this is how a poll works. In most polls, they list votes...since people voted. In this poll, they list points, which is why I asked how they get points.

gophers need to change what they are doing. The years they won it all they had a good mix of guys. To many skilled guys can make a team one dimensional. They obviously have an advantage being the school all minnesota high school players want to go to. There is no reason they should be this bad 3 years in a row.

This bad?
They are 17-15-2;
-11 of their 15 losses are to teams in the top 11 of the above list, 10 are in the top 8.
-Both ties to the #8 team.
-Beat the #3; 1-1 against them.
-Beat the #5; 1-1 against them.
-Beat the #8; 1-1-2 against them.
-Beat the #11; 1-0 against them.
-Beat the #16; 2-0 against them.
-Beat the #18; 1-2 against them. (play them again tonight)
0-4 against the #1 team.
0-1 against #15 team.
0-1 against the #25 team.
20 of their 34 games have been played against 9 of the top 25 teams in the nation and while they do have a good number of losses, they have 7 wins and 2 ties.
They aren't bad, but I wouldn't try to argue they're amazing either.

Of the 25 players listed on their roster online:
6 are seniors
6 are juniors
9 are sophomores
4 are freshmen
In addition, they have a nice group of recruits committed for both next year and the year after. Having beat teams they have this year and knowing 6 seniors will be leaving this year, next and 9 the year after that I would say they have a bright future.



I digress...simply curious if anyone knows how points are assigned in the poll, as it doesn't seem to reflect the result of games played the week before always, imho.

So you think that the 16-16-2, 11-13-2 UofM Gophers deserve to be ranked .......#9, #........5.....what??? They are horrible this year and they've proven it on the rink and the people who come up with the rankings have taken notice and give them what they deserve.

[HShockeywatcher]

Hockeywatcher,

When your team is 5-9-1 after 15 games, what are you supposed to be ranked, regardless of who you play? CC is still above 500 overall and is 15th in the rankings and is scrambling to make the NCAA's--which is right about where they should be. They had a good start to their season and they have been dropping since being swept by the U here and at home against UND. Have you looked at the Pairwise and RPI? The U is 24 in Pairwise, only one team in front of them has a worse record--BU is one game under 500 at #23. However, Michigan is 3 games over 500 and is #25 in Pairwise. In RPI, the U is 22 and every team in front of them has a better record. Both of those are numbers based and no one "votes." There are no conspiricy's as you are suggesting.

The U simply cannot go 5-9-1 (or any team for that matter), beat awful team to get to 500 in Bowling Green, Harvard, and Mich. Tech., and then play average the rest of the season and expect to be ranked in the top 20 with a 500 record. After Harvard, the won and tied against UND, got swept by SCSU, split with AA, got swept by DU, swept CC at home and split with UMD. You think that deserves being ranked top 15? Where do you think they should be ranked. Just curious.

Not sure; I don't know of a date-base to look through the different team's schedules like there is readily available for high school team. But, from looking at just their schedule and the rankings, I would put them at #13, right behind UMD, who they just went 1-1 with and three spots ahead of CC who they just swept.

Of their losses, one is to a team not in the top 25 and that is and in state opponent, MSU. If you aren't going to allow teams a couple off games to decent teams or to lose to good teams.

Use any analogy you want, but losing to teams better than you doesn't make you worse than you were, it just shows that the result that was supposed to happen happened. A perfect analogy to the Gophers would be Holy Angels; they have lost to teams ranked above them, but kept most games close, beat most of the teams they should beat and have one, early, bad upset in there. The difference; Holy Angels stayed in the top 15; Gophers didn't.

To answer your question, #13 is where I'd put them this week. They got swept by the #2 team (who is now #1), swept the #8 team (who is now #15) and then went 1-1 with the #11 team (who is now #12) and somehow does not have any points. It is funny; teams fall for tying/losing to them, but they don't get any credit for the wins.

[HShockeywatcher]

A one goal loss to the #3 team in the nation. They must suck.

When a team ranked like the U does that to a team ranked so high in MN high school hockey, we congratulate the team and they are usually moved way up in the rankings.

[ACTUALFORMERPLAYER]

A one goal loss to the #3 team in the nation. They must suck.

When a team ranked like the U does that to a team ranked so high in MN high school hockey, we congratulate the team and they are usually moved way up in the rankings.

In your rankings they move up. In the real world wins are rewarded. Rankings are done now and the players will decide who is the best not people sitting at home watching. State High School Tourney and the WCHA playoffs begin next weekend. The Gophers can prove they are a better team on the road next weekend. Probably at UND.

My suggestion is to try and understand the system that is used now,(pairwise) and not waste your time trying to justify why you think the Gophers should be ranked higher. The sysyem is not changing and I have never seen any support to change it.

[gorilla1]

Any team that is under .500, and has beaten Mich. Tech 2x, Harvard 2X and Bowling Green for 5 of their wins (and is still under .500) is deserving of not being ranked. Stick with high school.