AA Rankings for 12/5/10

[karl(east)]

Now that most teams have a few games under their belts, we can start moving away from speculation and develop some more serious rankings. There were a lot of big matchups in the first week and a half, so a lot of the top teams have a loss or even two. It’s crowded at the top. Last year at this point, Minnetonka had already asserted itself as a clear frontrunner; this time, I’d say there’s not much differentiation between the top six to seven.

1. Eden Prairie
-A pair of very impressive season-opening wins over former Lake Conference foes have the Eagles on top for the time being; the big win over Jefferson, though not entirely unexpected, says a lot about the direction of both programs. This upcoming week is the only one in which they do not face another elite team in the state.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North, Sat vs. Hermantown

2. Wayzata
-Had three wins over top-10 teams in the first week and a half, and also a blowout of another top-25 team. The three top-10 wins were all by one goal, though, so they certainly aren’t miles ahead of the rest of the competition. This week they get a respite from elite teams, and should sail to a pair of easy victories.
This week: Tues at Osseo, Thurs at Buffalo

3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s
-A convincing win over Hill puts the Red Knights up amongst the elite in the state. They’ve only allowed two goals in their opening two games, which is a good sign for a team whose question marks were on defense. Two games this week; one is an easy win, another is a mild upset threat, but not a serious one.
This week: Tues vs. St. Francis, Sat. vs. Duluth Marshall

4. Edina
-Lost to Wayzata, but rebounded with a last-second miracle win over Burnsville and scraped by Eagan. I’m not sure how much stock to put into the Wayzata loss, since they lost to the Trojans 3 times last year, and it sure didn’t end up stopping them. Their wins haven’t exactly been pretty, but at least they’re getting them, unlike, say, Hill. They’re likely to pick up another one in their only game this week.
This week: Sat at #14 Lakeville South

5. Burnsville
-It’s hard to imagine a harder opening schedule than the one the Blaze went through, but their win over Hill and near win against Edina cement them amongst the state’s elite. They picked right up where they left off last year, despite some significant losses; their success says a lot about coach Kivihalme and his efforts. Only one game this week, but once again it’s an important one, both within the conference and from a rankings perspective.
This week: Thurs vs. #10 Eagan

6. Duluth East
-Their game against Cambridge got snowed out, leaving them with a season opener on the road against Wayzata--a daunting task. Yet the Hounds took Wayzata to OT, which has to be an encouraging sign for a very young team. Very busy schedule this upcoming week, though three of the games should pose little challenge.
This week: Tues vs. Andover, Thurs vs. Cambridge, Fri at #13 White Bear Lake, Sat at Princeton

7. Hill-Murray
-A surprisingly rough start to the season for the Pioneers, who suffered losses to Burnsville and Benilde sandwiched around a big win over Duluth Marshall. They may be missing their top defensemen from last year; also, as a very deep team, it’ll probably take them longer to sort out their best line combinations, etc. than it will for a team like Benilde, where such things are a bit more obvious. Nevertheless, the losses do raise some important questions, and if they go down to St. Thomas this week things might start getting a little dicey in Maplewood.
This week: Thurs at Henry Sibley, Sat at St. Thomas Academy

8. Maple Grove
-The close opening loss to Wayzata was a very good sign, and though they may not be flashy, they’ve been methodically strong in their three wins. In the midst of a stretch of NWSC games, all of which they really should win.
This week: Thurs vs. #12 Blaine, Sat at Armstrong

9. Apple Valley
-Flashed their strengths in a big SSC win over Bloomington Jefferson, but then showed their shortcomings in a loss to Eden Prairie. The lack of depth is a very real issue, and it separates them from all of the other top teams in a pretty significant way. It shouldn’t be a problem this week, though, as they take on some of their weaker SSC opponents.
This week: Thurs at Rosemount, Sat vs. Eastview

10. Eagan
-Showed off a lot of firepower this past week, first in the opening win over Prior Lake, and then in a tight loss to Edina. Very challenging week ahead of them, and a chance to prove they’re here to stay in the state’s top tier.
This week: Thurs at #5 Burnsville, Sat vs. #11 Minnetonka

11. Minnetonka
-A pair of tight wins over northern teams to open the season. This is probably what we should expect out of Minnetonka this year--some struggles on defense, and none of the flashiness of last season. The much lower ranking than what they had in the preseason edition is more a product of what the other teams around them have done than anything they’ve done wrong. A couple of important games this week will give us a better idea of which direction they’re headed.
This week: Tues at St. Thomas Academy, Thurs vs. Chaska, Sat at #10 Eagan

12. Blaine
-Teams 1-11 all have pretty good arguments that put them amongst the elite; from 12 on down, it’s a different tier of teams that have some proving to do. Blaine did well to beat Roseau in its opener, but giving up 4 goals to Willmar revealed their defensive shortcomings and general inexperience. I’m curious to see how they do against Maple Grove, the team widely assumed to be their successor in the top spot in 5AA and the NWSC.
This week: Thurs at #8 Maple Grove, Sat vs. Elk River

13. White Bear Lake
-Had a nice, impressive opening win over Rochester Century, but struggled with Hastings some; the takeaway from the first week is that they’re capable of putting up plenty of points. They also have to be encouraged by Hill’s struggles, as the gap between the two of them is currently smaller than it was at any point last year. They still have plenty to prove, though, and they get their first game against a top team this week when Duluth East comes to visit.
This week: Tues at Woodbury, Fri vs. #6 Duluth East, Sat vs. Cloquet

14. Lakeville South
-Idle in the opening week and a half; have a warm-up against an SSC bottom-feeder before a big opening challenge against Edina.
This week: Thurs vs. Bloomington Kennedy, Sat vs. #4 Edina

15. Holy Angels
-Still waiting for the season to begin. It’s a bit awkward to be promoting idle teams into the top 15, but both Roseau and Jefferson showed they don’t really belong right now, and while a couple of teams have moved closer into the picture, no one has done so with enough authority to convince me they belong quite yet.
This week: Idle

On the Bubble
Grand Rapids
-Got off to a very nice start as they took down a pair of 7AA contenders. We’ll get a better measure of just how big this resurgence is this week, as they take on two of the better single-A teams and also host Roseau.
Cretin-Derham Hall
-Tied a good A team and beat a good SEC opponent to open the year; for now, that’s enough to put them on the fringe of the rankings. Interesting matchup with Duluth Central this week, along with two beatable SEC teams.
The four 8AA contenders
-Moorhead came away looking decent after its first win, and Brainerd is putting up some crooked figures against weak competition; Roseau is 0-3 but gave two pretty good cities teams competitive games, and St. Cloud Tech did okay in the loss to Benilde. There’s no real reason to hype any of them up right now, but we may get a little more clarity in the near future--Tech and Brainerd play this week, and 3 of Moorhead’s next four are against 8AA teams.

Next in line are Bloomington Jefferson a bunch of NWSC and SEC teams--Centennial, Forest Lake, Osseo, and Stillwater.

After a lot of games between top teams in the first week of the season, there aren’t that many this week. Still, there are a few that will clearly alter the rankings, and the number of big games will pick up as we head towards the holiday tournaments.

[youngblood08]

Excellent Job as usual, karl. Solid list.

[MrBoDangles]

The top seven look very strong. It will be interesting to see how far Eagan will climb.

[HockeyMN1]

Hey Karl nice list. Just a suggestion, next week can you put the teams' records by their names? Thanks.

[HShockeywatcher]

Wins over your #9 and #20 is better than wins over your #4, #6, and #8?

Definitely early with only a few games, but I would switch #1 and #2. Aside from that, great rankings Karl. Keep it up.

[HockeyMN1]

Wins over your #9 and #20 is better than wins over your #4, #6, and #8?

Definitely early with only a few games, but I would switch #1 and #2. Aside from that, great rankings Karl. Keep it up.

Typical EP bashing from HHW. Anyways the difference is, as stated by Karl, EP won by 3 over AV and 7 over Jefferson and Wayzata won by 1 measly goal over Edina, DE, and MG (whom they should have destroyed).

[HShockeywatcher]

Wins over your #9 and #20 is better than wins over your #4, #6, and #8?

Definitely early with only a few games, but I would switch #1 and #2. Aside from that, great rankings Karl. Keep it up.

Typical EP bashing from HHW. Anyways the difference is, as stated by Karl, EP won by 3 over AV and 7 over Jefferson and Wayzata won by 1 measly goal over Edina, DE, and MG (whom they should have destroyed).

Huh? EP bashing? I have nothing against EP, at all, nor have I ever. I'm throwing my opinion out there for friendly discussion.

The #2 team should've destroyed the #8 team? In their first game of the season.

I understand what you just said, I read it myself, but why does margin of victory matter? One teams beats 3 in the top 8 and another beats 1 in the bottom of the top 10 and one in the end of the top 20, both teams ranked lower than all the other three.

[HockeyMN1]

Yes sorry my mistake i was thinking of HappyHockeyFan, I'm sorry. Margin of victory matters simply because it shows how the game was played. EP has only the two games so far to be used as a measuring stick so two very impressive wins vaults them ahead of three one goal wins. Personally I don't think MG is that good and if Wayzata is an elite team yes, they should have won by much more than 1.

[Zamman]

Some impressive wins for some teams already.... My team always starts late and seems to fall behind, but I am confident that they will be in the mix when the end of the season comes around.

[HShockeywatcher]

Some impressive wins for some teams already.... My team always starts late and seems to fall behind, but I am confident that they will be in the mix when the end of the season comes around.

Zamman, it's quite good for AHA this year that Northfield left the conference and they were able to pick up Eden Prairie and Roseau. They also play Edina and their first game in Schwan's Cup is against Burnsville. Regardless of the outcome, it will be much easier to fairly rank them in 2AA this year. Would've been nice to see Jefferson on the schedule, but this is a great step in the "right direction" in my opinion.

[karl(east)]

Comments on the comments made so far:

As HockeyMN1 notes, margin of victory gives us a good idea of the potential of each team. I will agree that it can be overused--a good example is Jefferson last year, who some people had very high based on some big blowout wins, even though they had some very questionable losses/ties that revealed their inconsistency and the danger in ranking them highly. But EP has not been inconsistent so far, so that worry does not apply. Also, I used that margin of victory argument to push Minnetonka up at the beginning of last year, and it definitely seems like the right move in retrospect.
Also, EP gets some help in staying ahead of Wayzata because they were there in the preseason poll, and I don't think their 6 combined games is enough to eliminate that subjective element. Furthermore, I expressed concern about EP's scoring depth in that preseason comment, but after watching them this past week against Apple Valley, I think the EP coaching staff is aware of that, and working to address the issue. Whether they'll succeed or not is another story, but it's an important step.
All that said, I have no real beef with someone who does want to put Wayzata at #1. They have a good case for it, just not as good as EP's, IMO.

I too am curious to see how far Eagan can climb, and what AHA can do with a somewhat harder schedule.

Team records will start appearing next week--I just didn't bother this week since they don't mean much quite yet, and because I mentioned practically every game played in the comments.

[HappyHockeyFan]

Yes sorry my mistake i was thinking of HappyHockeyFan, I'm sorry. Margin of victory matters simply because it shows how the game was played. EP has only the two games so far to be used as a measuring stick so two very impressive wins vaults them ahead of three one goal wins. Personally I don't think MG is that good and if Wayzata is an elite team yes, they should have won by much more than 1.

Aw...I'm offended by that comment...Me bash EP?? I just disagreed with everyone last year when it was said Eagan couldnt beat EP after losing to them 6-1 in the first game, and I was vindicated in the second game as Eagan did beat them. I am not out to bash EP, I just call it like I see it.

[EHSHack]

I dont see how FTP can have Hill at #1...

[MNHockey75]

Just a few thoughts from me...

1. No Brainerd mentioned?
2. It's good to see Maple Grove getting some love. I predict a Maple Grove/Osseo 5AA final. One of them will finally get over the hump.
3. I completely forgot about the talent Lakeville South has coming back. Good call on that.
4. Any thoughts on Blaine's unforgivable 6-4 win over Willmar? Willmar is going to be a bottom-feeder in 6A this year. They already lost to Benson this year. Ouchtown, population you, bro!

[karl(east)]

1. No Brainerd mentioned?

I lumped them in the "four 8AA contenders" category that's on the bubble. I know they have one flashy line that wracks up lots of points against a weak schedule, but I don't think that makes them in any way unique. They'll have to win their few important games against 8AA contenders (they have several in the next few weeks) to make an impression on me.

[scoreboard33]

Not to get too picky but the way Wayzata outplayed Edina in the makes me think that they are the top team in the state. Should been a big lead but Girard stood on his head and Wayzata played tight in the end of the game. They definitely need to work on things but they look possibly great.

[longdistancespectator8]

just a quick mention about Lakeville South, the injury bug has hit them pretty hard. 2 returning defensmen 1 a junior who played powerplay and penalty kill last year bum ankle and the other a senior with 3 years of varsity experience is fighting a knee injury. I see it greatly hurting them because there schedule is so strong to start the season.

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

Not to get too picky but the way Wayzata outplayed Edina in the makes me think that they are the top team in the state. Should been a big lead but Girard stood on his head and Wayzata played tight in the end of the game. They definitely need to work on things but they look possibly great.

Maybe if Girard stood on his feet instead of his head, Edina could have won.

[keepyourheadup]

Good call on Lakeville south, you couple the injury situation with Osterbergs departure and it could spell real trouble the first month. This group has been devastated by the private migration as well (and yes I know they are not the only ones). They'd be much more formidable if you added Reid, Schroeder, Kroska and McKneely to the roster. As it is they'll need to over achieve to be considered a threat to a top twenty team.

[HockeyMN1]

http://www.mnhockeyhub.com/news_article ... r_id=32770

EP also #1 on the Hub's rankings. Right now they're rolling at 7 goals a game and 62.5% on the powerplay against two top 20 teams. Tough to argue with that.

[HShockeywatcher]

I just noticed myFOXhockey has Roseville (3-0) at #6. While this is probably quite inflated due to their SOS thus far and for the next 4 games, I think they are at least someone to mention.

Apparently they return 17 skaters from last year as well, which is never a bad thing. Although they only won 7 games last season, they averaged -.84 goal margin in all games and -2.72 goal margin in losses.

I expect them to be a contender for the Schwan's Cup Silver Division title and the SEC title this year. Anyone know much more about the team or a grade level breakdown?

[HShockeywatcher]

http://www.mnhockeyhub.com/news_article ... r_id=32770

EP also #1 on the Hub's rankings. Right now they're rolling at 7 goals a game and 62.5% on the powerplay against two top 20 teams. Tough to argue with that.

And more people on there in the poll think Wayzata should be #1.

myFOXhockey's rankings have it:
1. Wayzata
2. Eden Prairie
3. Edina

LPH has it:
1. Wayzata
2. Edina
3. Eden Prairie

All it seems we can all agree on is that those are the top three and that Wayzata is ahead of Edina

It depends on where you put your value. Look at Class A; Breck won state last year, is undefeated with a 0.00 GAA in two games and was #2 in most preseason polls and is #2 in most polls now.

Edina won state last year and their one loss is to undefeated Wayzata. Have Eden Prairie and St Thomas acquired many youngsters, or lost less seniors, to earn this early jump?

Food for thought and discussion.

[karl(east)]

I just noticed myFOXhockey has Roseville (3-0) at #6. While this is probably quite inflated due to their SOS thus far and for the next 4 games, I think they are at least someone to mention.

Apparently they return 17 skaters from last year as well, which is never a bad thing. Although they only won 7 games last season, they averaged -.84 goal margin in all games and -2.72 goal margin in losses.

I expect them to be a contender for the Schwan's Cup Silver Division title and the SEC title this year. Anyone know much more about the team or a grade level breakdown?

I'll admit I don't know that much about them, but their early results don't really compel me. WBL hammered a Woodbury team that they beat in unremarkable fashion; Grand Rapids beat up on the Virginia team they beat; and Cretin took it to the Duluth Central team they beat. Those three teams are good, but haven't proven themselves to be great, and I don't hear anybody clamoring about them, either. Roseville may be a bubble team, and have a shot at the SEC, but I don't think they're top 20 at this point.

Wayzata beat Edina, so there is very good reason to have Wayzata ahead of Edina. And if we want to play off what happened last year still, EP beat Wayzata in the 6AA semis.

[HockeyMN1]

http://www.mnhockeyhub.com/news_article ... r_id=32770

EP also #1 on the Hub's rankings. Right now they're rolling at 7 goals a game and 62.5% on the powerplay against two top 20 teams. Tough to argue with that.

And more people on there in the poll think Wayzata should be #1.

myFOXhockey's rankings have it:
1. Wayzata
2. Eden Prairie
3. Edina

LPH has it:
1. Wayzata
2. Edina
3. Eden Prairie

All it seems we can all agree on is that those are the top three and that Wayzata is ahead of Edina

It depends on where you put your value. Look at Class A; Breck won state last year, is undefeated with a 0.00 GAA in two games and was #2 in most preseason polls and is #2 in most polls now.

Edina won state last year and their one loss is to undefeated Wayzata. Have Eden Prairie and St Thomas acquired many youngsters, or lost less seniors, to earn this early jump?

Food for thought and discussion.

Well EP lost only 3 seniors to Edina's 7 and Wayzata's 6 so yes.

[observer]

Lakeville North or EP? Final score anyone?