AA Rankings for 12/19/10

[karl(east)]

It was a busy week, and the Edina Holiday Classic did a lovely job of wreaking havoc on the top of the rankings. This is perhaps the most difficult week of the year for rankings, since there are still not a ton of common opponents, and it can be hard to tell whether certain games should be written off as upsets or taken as legitimate proof that a team is in contention. Because of that, there’s still a decent amount of subjectivity at play.

We have a short week ahead of us, as most teams have only one game, but there are a decent number of significant matchups. Next week we’ll reset and put out previews of the holiday tournaments, which will probably cause some major shifts and give us the basis we’ll be working with for the rest of the season.

The second record listed after each team’s W-L record is its record against a group of about 25 other top teams.

1. Wayzata (8-0/6-0)
-Continue to pile up the wins against other good teams, and as others fall around them, they find themselves pushed to the top. Their games this past week were both against common opponents with Eden Prairie, and they did a little worse against both in the wins. They do deserve to be #1 right now, but it’s a fairly tenuous #1 as far as I’m concerned. They shouldn’t be challenged this week, though.
This week: Thurs vs. Roseville

2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (5-0/3-0)
-AA’s other undefeated elite team. I’m not entirely convinced they belong this high, but with two big wins over other top teams now on the books, we’ll go with it for now. Their holiday tourney should give us a more definitive answer, though they face a pretty good team this week that could take them down if they’re not careful.
This week: Tues at #12 Maple Grove

3. Eden Prairie (5-1/4-1)
-Yes, they lost, but if a team is going to lose, they might as well do it in overtime, on the road against a very talented rival, and in a game where the reffing does not fit their style. They looked like a well-oiled machine in the Edina Tournament; the 2nd line has stepped up, though their 3rd line was not on the level of Edina’s. Face a potentially difficult opponent this week in preparation for a showdown against Benilde in St. Louis Park in two weeks.
This week: Wed at #11 Eagan.

4. Duluth East (5-1/2-1)
-Methodically took care of their two unranked opponents this past week, and have another decent-but-beatable team ahead of them this weekend. After that we’ll get a chance to see them in action against other elite teams.
This week: Tues at Moorhead

5. Edina (5-2/3-2)
-It was a roller coaster of a Holiday Classic for the tournament hosts, as they crashed to the ground against Grand Rapids, then beat Eden Prairie on the final night. Clearly, the win over EP shows they can probably beat anyone in the state when they’re on. However, I’ve consistently put a priority on consistency in my rankings, and the GR loss means Edina has to take a hit, at least for a little while. After watching them against Elk River, I said they needed to find an identity; maybe the EP win will give them that. They’re on the tough side of the Schwan Cup bracket, so we’ll find out in a hurry. They have all week to prepare for it.
This week: Idle

6. Burnsville (3-1-1/1-1-1)
-Took care of some lesser SSC competition this past week, and now march towards a meeting with a mild upset threat. The Schwan Cup Silver will be a good opportunity for them to assert themselves.
This week: Tues at Lakeville South

7. Grand Rapids (7-1/2-1)
-The hardest team to rank right now. The upset win over Edina is huge, but they came back to earth some against Eden Prairie. Beyond that, the record is gaudy, and they do have some decent wins, but nothing overwhelmingly good. Moreover, the schedule from here on out is quite weak compared to other top teams--they face only one other top team (Duluth East), and a handful of teams that might be upset threats (Brainerd, Lakeville North, Bemidji, Moorhead). I could easily see them winding up with the best regular season record in AA. What will that be worth? We’ll have to wait and see. They will probably get buffeted around in the rankings in the coming weeks, as other teams win and lose big games against other top teams.
This week: Tues vs. Brainerd

8. Hill-Murray (4-2/1-2)
-Took care of business this past week and finally got that record back over .500. The achievements thus far may not be all that impressive, but we can’t afford to fall asleep on Hill. The rivalry resumes this Thursday; it’s a good opportunity for the Pioneers to reassert themselves before launching into a difficult holiday tourney.
This week: Thurs at #14 White Bear Lake

9. Minnetonka (4-1/2-1)
-They may have gone down in defeat in their only game this week, but by giving Benilde a great run, they showed that they can’t be forgotten. They seem to have reloaded quite well, despite all the graduations, and will be a serious factor in 6AA and the Lake. Have a busier week against most, and the Blaine game presents us with an interesting matchup against another team that has done well so far despite many graduations.
This week: Tues at Stillwater, Thurs vs. #13 Blaine

10. Apple Valley (6-2/1-2)
-Had a closer loss in the Wayzata game than they did to EP, which is a step in the right direction, and proved that they are much better than North Dakota’s finest, which is not shocking but reassuring. In the Wayzata game they broke up Michaelson and Fasching and put them on different lines; proponent of depth that I am, I think that is the right move, and will help them in the long run.
This week: Thurs vs. Prior Lake

11. Eagan (2-2-1/1-2-1)
-With the loss to Lakeville North this past week, I think this is generous. They do have a tie against Burnsville and a close loss to Edina on the books, but a real elite team would have taken care of business. I’m curious to see how well they can stick with EP this week; if they fail to keep it close, they’ll go dropping further.
This week: vs. #3 Eden Prairie

12. Maple Grove (5-1-1/1-1-1)
-Continue to win, though not exactly in compelling fashion; needing OT to escape against Centennial raises even more questions for a team that’s trying to assert itself atop the section and the conference. It’s a tough next few weeks, with Benilde and then Benilde’s holiday tourney coming up.
This week: vs. #2 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

13. Blaine (4-0-1/1-0-1)
-Put up some strong scores this week to remain undefeated, though they have yet to play a real elite team. That’s about to change, as they take on Minnetonka, and then the Gold Division of the Schwan Cup.
This week: Tues at Anoka, Thurs at #9 Minnetonka

14. White Bear Lake (5-1/0-1)
-A strong week against the SEC has established them as the clear frontrunner in an otherwise tumultuous conference, though it’s hard to push them higher since they lost their only game against a team that is, well, good. But the decisive wins should be good for their confidence as they head into the biggest game of their season; time for these Bears to show their mettle.
This week: vs. #8 Hill-Murray

15. St. Cloud Tech (4-1/1-1)
-You can argue the order, but the top 14 pretty clearly deserve to be ranked. Finding a #15, however, is a different story. I’ve chosen Tech since they played Benilde pretty well and are undefeated beyond that, including a solid win over a Brainerd team that’s generated some hype. They are the frontrunner in 8AA for the time being. They should be able to roll to a pretty strong record thanks to the Central Lakes Conference, though they do play all the other contenders in 8AA (some of them twice), and have a road trip to Duluth East that will be a better gauge of what they’re worth.
This week: Tues vs. Sartell-St. Stephen, Thurs at Alexandria

Beyond That (a long list, with some attempt at order)

Lakeville North (2-2/1-1)
-I was tempted to rank North since they beat a pretty good Eagan team and gave EP a great run a few weeks back, but that loss to Eastview is too nasty a blight at the moment. They’re a team that we should keep an eye on, though, as they’ve shown they can give good teams a serious challenge.
Lakeville South (1-2/0-2)
-Two losses, but they are both to pretty good teams.
Bloomington Jefferson (2-3/0-3)
-Like LVS, an ugly record, but all the losses were expected.
Roseau (2-5/2-3)
-Brutal record, but with two wins against decent teams this past week, they can’t be written off.
Bemidji (7-0-1/0-0-1)
-Opposite scenario of the teams above them: have a very pretty record, but have only played one legit AA opponent, and tied them. A team to keep an eye on.
Eastview (3-2/1-2)
-The win over LVN now looks very nice, and they’ve kept Apple Valley and Burnsville in the ballpark. A team that could sneak up on a few people and cause some problems in the SSC.
Stillwater (3-1-1/0-0-1)
-Cretin’s crash makes their one loss look weak, but otherwise they’ve done an okay job and are the closest to a #2 team the SEC has right now.
Elk River (3-4/1-3)
-That season-opening clunker against Armstrong is hard to ignore, but they’ve beaten Centennial and kept Edina and Grand Rapids reasonably close.
Moorhead (2-1-1/1-1-1)
-Plodding along with very little goal production; the loss to Roseau hurts, but the win over Brainerd pulls them back up some. Next few games could get ugly, with Duluth East and the Spring Lake Park Tourney.
Roseville (5-1/1-1)
-This win over Forest Lake, though close, was a step in the right direction; now the real tests begin.
Centennial (1-4/0-4)
-Another bad record, but the losses are all to teams above them, and forcing OT against MG was a good sign of life.
Holy Angels (1-1/0-1)
-A tight win over Chanhassen and a loss to Roseau are not an encouraging start, but the season is young.
Woodbury (4-4/1-3)
-Took some important steps in the right direction this past week, though they’re in a free-for-all with the SEC teams around them at the moment.
Cretin-Derham Hall (3-3-1/0-2)
-A sufficiently baffling team, coming off a horrid week. Who knows which team will show up.
Forest Lake (1-2-2/0-2-1)
-A rough start, but the close loss to GR reminds us they have some talent and shouldn’t be completely ignored.
Brainerd (6-2/0-2)
-At some point they’ll have to beat another 8AA contender if they really want to be considered here.

Don’t expect such a long list of bubble teams in the future. That’s basically a list of everyone I plan to remotely consider for a ranking this year, barring some dramatic shift.

It’s a complicated week--I hope this generates some good discussion, and Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all.

[blueblood]

After 610 page views, there are no posts about this weeks AA rankings. Has he figured out the AA teams before Christmas????

With no opposition, maybe karl should think about political office aspirations to go along with the Georgetown degree he is pursuing....

[MNHockey75]

I will chime in...First off, with Eden Prairie losing to Edina, I have East at #2. I'm just not completely sold on Benilde, although they're a sure fire top 10 team. Yes, Eden Prairie deserves to be ahead of Edina. Eagan deserves to be at least #11 in my book. Lindgren will never do that again (54 saves, 1GA).

Don't underestimate Bemidji in 8AA, they look good. Eastview is returning to form, it would appear. Stillwater and Roseville are top 20 teams without a doubt at this point.

Great stuff as always.

[Slap Shot]

Too much of a ranking gap between BSM and Minnetonka imho.

[MNHOCKEY91]

I may be a little biased as a WBL fan here... but I have seen Hill Murray play this season, and they do not gel together, at all. I'm just saying I don't think Hill Murray deserves an 8 ranking

[really?]

[quote="MNHockey75"]I will chime in...First off, with Eden Prairie losing to Edina, I have East at #2. I'm just not completely sold on Benilde, although they're a sure fire top 10 team. Yes, Eden Prairie deserves to be ahead of Edina. Eagan deserves to be at least #11 in my book. Lindgren will never do that again (54 saves, 1GA).

Don't underestimate Bemidji in 8AA, they look good. Eastview is returning to form, it would appear. Stillwater and Roseville are top 20 teams without a doubt at this point.

Great stuff as always.[/quote]

Lindgren has done it before and he'll do it again.

[MNHockey75]

I will chime in...First off, with Eden Prairie losing to Edina, I have East at #2. I'm just not completely sold on Benilde, although they're a sure fire top 10 team. Yes, Eden Prairie deserves to be ahead of Edina. Eagan deserves to be at least #11 in my book. Lindgren will never do that again (54 saves, 1GA).

Don't underestimate Bemidji in 8AA, they look good. Eastview is returning to form, it would appear. Stillwater and Roseville are top 20 teams without a doubt at this point.

Great stuff as always.

Lindgren has done it before and he'll do it again.

To clarify, he won't do it against Eagan again, was what I meant.

[scoreboard33]

Having attended the all the holiday classic games, I would say that Edina outplayed Grand Rapids and just didnt really get anything to show for it. I also think that EP played a little better than Edina but it was very close. All in all, if I were Edina, I would chalk the GR loss up to bad luck and not worry about, however, the EP game did a good job of exposing Edina's weakness, especially in their break out, way too many turnovers and it Everson was the only defensemen getting the puck up ice quickly.

[northwoods oldtimer]

I would say that Edina outplayed Grand Rapids and just didnt really get anything to show for it.

[old goalie85]

I would say Edina got a LOSS to show for it.

[karl(east)]

After 610 page views, there are no posts about this weeks AA rankings. Has he figured out the AA teams before Christmas????

With no opposition, maybe karl should think about political office aspirations to go along with the Georgetown degree he is pursuing....

I can dream...


Re: MNHockey75

-I'd like to think East can be #2, and I also have my doubts about Benilde, but for now, Benilde's beaten two other top-10 teams, while the best team East has beaten is #14 WBL. I think this year's edition of te Hounds has a chance to be their best team in a long time, but I'll wait to see what they do in the Schwan Cup.
-I'll definitely be watching Bemidji closely from here on out. 8AA has a great race going.
-I'm still not really seeing the hype around Stillwater and Roseville--they're decent, but I don't think they've proved themselves to be undoubtedly in the top 20.

Re: scoreboard33
-Your assessment of Edina's losses seems accurate to me. In terms of strengths and weaknesses, this year's Edina team reminds me more of their group two years ago than last year's.

Re: Slap Shot
-I suspect the gap between BSM and Tonka will close as the year goes on.

Re: MNHOCKEY91
-We should be able to judge that after Thursday night...should be a great one.

Re: northwoods oldtimer
-Glad to see your boys have decided to give East a little competition this year. We were looking forward to another nice, easy ride down to the X...glad to see the competition coming from up north once again.

One other team that probably should have been mentioned in the bubble is Osseo.

[east hockey]

Re: northwoods oldtimer
-Glad to see your boys have decided to give East a little competition this year. We were looking forward to another nice, easy ride down to the X...glad to see the competition coming from up north once again.

Oh, ouch!

Lee

[northwoods oldtimer]

Re: northwoods oldtimer
-Glad to see your boys have decided to give East a little competition this year. We were looking forward to another nice, easy ride down to the X...glad to see the competition coming from up north once again.

Karl, I must say that I am very surprised by the start and very glad to see the program doing so well. Whether or not the team is up for East well we will just have to see how it all plays out. East is still the big kid on the block. I do think that Forest Lake will still make some noise once the D get going, the goaltending is great. Cloquet? Well you can never count out Esse coached teams. Same goes for the Elks as a spoiler.
Nice ranks for the early going here, well done.

[longrebound]

One other team that probably should have been mentioned in the bubble is Osseo.

Not sure I feel that vibe.

[eastside hockey]

I've just seen Eastview plat tonight Karl. I went to the game to see what kind of hipe the Eastview lightning were warranting. they were a fast skating tean but lacked in size. they are a young team this year and should improve by the end of the year. With the trouble Woodbury has seen against SEC conference foe's they just shelled Eastview. If they dont improve greatly by the end of the season, I dont see them creating any trouble for SEC teams in sections. Apple valley and Eagan will have that responcibility this year. But, you never know. Thats why they play the game....

[karl(east)]

I've just seen Eastview plat tonight Karl. I went to the game to see what kind of hipe the Eastview lightning were warranting. they were a fast skating tean but lacked in size. they are a young team this year and should improve by the end of the year. With the trouble Woodbury has seen against SEC conference foe's they just shelled Eastview. If they dont improve greatly by the end of the season, I dont see them creating any trouble for SEC teams in sections. Apple valley and Eagan will have that responcibility this year. But, you never know. Thats why they play the game....

Thanks for the update, I was curious about them, though I might have given them a little too much credit. All in all, it's been a good night for the SEC, with that win by Woodbury, Stillwater over Tonka, and East Ridge picking up another conference win (though that one comes at CDH's expense). The SEC has a couple more big games this week (Wayzata-Roseville, WBL-Hill), so that should give us a great idea of how the conference stacks up with the rest of the state.

[eastside hockey]

I've just seen Eastview plat tonight Karl. I went to the game to see what kind of hipe the Eastview lightning were warranting. they were a fast skating tean but lacked in size. they are a young team this year and should improve by the end of the year. With the trouble Woodbury has seen against SEC conference foe's they just shelled Eastview. If they dont improve greatly by the end of the season, I dont see them creating any trouble for SEC teams in sections. Apple valley and Eagan will have that responcibility this year. But, you never know. Thats why they play the game....

Thanks for the update, I was curious about them, though I might have given them a little too much credit. All in all, it's been a good night for the SEC, with that win by Woodbury, Stillwater over Tonka, and East Ridge picking up another conference win (though that one comes at CDH's expense). The SEC has a couple more big games this week (Wayzata-Roseville, WBL-Hill), so that should give us a great idea of how the conference stacks up with the rest of the state.

I wouldn't exactly give the SEC the vote of confidence stacked up against some of the other conferences. as a whole, I think the SEC is down. the quality of teams I have seen in the recent past were much better. Woodbury is certainly down, White Bear is up, but those two should flip flop around back and forth for the next few seasons. it has become quite a rivalry. Im not positive, but i don't think Cretin has won a game against Woodbury since the lost to them in the section final in 2007.

[MNHockey75]

Re: MNHockey75

-I'm still not really seeing the hype around Stillwater and Roseville--they're decent, but I don't think they've proved themselves to be undoubtedly in the top 20.

How about now

[northwoods oldtimer]

Brainerd (6-2/0-2)
-At some point they’ll have to beat another 8AA contender if they really want to be considered here.

Brainerd is an easy one to drop from the list getting hammered by Grand Rapids. No depth to match up against Roseau, Bemidji, Tech, Moorhead in playoffs. They will post a decent win-loss record with a light schedule.

[karl(east)]

Re: MNHockey75

-I'm still not really seeing the hype around Stillwater and Roseville--they're decent, but I don't think they've proved themselves to be undoubtedly in the top 20.

How about now

Yeah, I'll give you that one. Stillwater, definitely; they'll probably crack the top 15. Roseville...still not completely sold, but they should be one of the top few teams in the bubble. I curious to see if they can give Wayzata a good game tomorrow.

[TheJet]

I've just seen Eastview plat tonight Karl. I went to the game to see what kind of hipe the Eastview lightning were warranting. they were a fast skating tean but lacked in size. they are a young team this year and should improve by the end of the year. With the trouble Woodbury has seen against SEC conference foe's they just shelled Eastview. If they dont improve greatly by the end of the season, I dont see them creating any trouble for SEC teams in sections. Apple valley and Eagan will have that responcibility this year. But, you never know. Thats why they play the game....

You missed the first 2 periods if you were inideed at this game. Woodbury posted 10 total shots combined in those periods, if the announcer was correct, and of those ten not much quality. While it may seem crazy, Eastview was by far the better skating team. They made some mistakes and had a rough night in the net. Hopefully things they can correct, they were the funner team to watch despite the breakdowns.

[HappyHockeyFan]

Interesting Karl, that you didnt seem to even consider that Eagan might beat EP??

[Big Daddy]

Cretin-Derham Hall (3-3-1/0-2)
-A sufficiently baffling team, coming off a horrid week. Who knows which team will show up.
The loss to East Ridge was an embarrassment.They've completely fallen apart.

Forest Lake (1-2-2/0-2-1)
-A rough start, but the close loss to GR reminds us they have some talent and shouldn’t be completely ignored.
A 5-1 loss to Hastings shows they're not what we thought they'd be as well.

[MHGr8ness]

Interesting Karl, that you didnt seem to even consider that Eagan might beat EP??

Yes he did...he said that they'd be potentionally difficult.

[karl(east)]

Interesting Karl, that you didnt seem to even consider that Eagan might beat EP??

Yes he did...he said that they'd be potentionally difficult.

I am a bit surprised (who outside the Eagan faithful isn't?), but I definitely thought it was within the realm of possibility--I don't even think it's the most shocking result tonight, during which we had 6 games in the entire state (Hastings over Flake wins that award).

It says a lot about Eagan, who will go scooting back up in the rankings despite that loss to Lakeville North. They're legit.

It also raises more questions about EP, who looked like the top team in the state a week ago. Hangover from the Edina game, perhaps? The tough tests don't end here, so they have to get it together. It just goes to show the parity in AA this year--Wayzata is a slight step ahead of the field, and my Hounds, though not seriously tested yet, are making some statements, but there seem to be another 10 teams or so that can beat anyone on any given night.